JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
I have. Several times
JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
Aggie95 said:infinity ag said:HoustonAg9999 said:
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
This is nonsense. They were over populated and so just had people have 1 child for some decades. Population is reduced comparatively. It's a good thing.
High pop growth is a ponzi scheme.
And a declining population is worse…..people's taxes are needed to fund the Ponzi schemes or they collapse
JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
Do you see any Luckin Coffee shops?94chem said:JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
Yeah, 5 weeks total, in 2013 and 2024. Have an adopted son. Beijing twice, Wuhan twice, Hong Kong twice, Xian, Chengdu, Guilin, Guangzhou. Posted about my recent trip in Travel.
Seriously77 said:Do you see any Luckin Coffee shops?94chem said:JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
Yeah, 5 weeks total, in 2013 and 2024. Have an adopted son. Beijing twice, Wuhan twice, Hong Kong twice, Xian, Chengdu, Guilin, Guangzhou. Posted about my recent trip in Travel.
They claim they are bigger than Starbucks, a Chinese coffee shop.
I own a lot of their stock.
https://www.luckincoffee.com/
Overall U.S. imports at -64% has got to be one of the most insane numbers in economic history.
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) April 17, 2025
I don't think people quite comprehend how disruptive that's going to be. https://t.co/nbsUoR4D4k
7/
— CatGirl Kulak 😻😿 (Anarchonomicon) (@FromKulak) April 22, 2023
We've all seen the photos of China's ghost cities, hundreds of cities with thousands of massive housing complexes each, almost all sitting empty.
People assume the CCP is paying to build these as a make work scheme, but the truth is vastly, VASTLY Darker.
They're all sold. pic.twitter.com/3uvQUGsCBb
12/
— CatGirl Kulak 😻😿 (Anarchonomicon) (@FromKulak) April 22, 2023
China doesn't have a meaningful social security system. They can't afford it
Horrible poverty exists near those shiny towers
Third world conditions are everywhere and that's what people will be reduced back to
The world once manufactured in the rust belt too pic.twitter.com/yFQw5siGDj
Yes many times and I was a pastor of a primarily mainland Chinese church in both Japan and in the US.JohnClark929 said:
Has anyone here been to China?
That's just not true and it's an absurd/myopic take. First, key categories are dependent on their largest export market, us:94chem said:
15% of Chinese exports go to the US. They can find new outlets faster than we can start making stuff.
If one includes Hong Kong's exports, and the share of exports to Canada/Mexico et al. which wind up being components in finished goods sent to the US, it's even larger. Despite your hope that the CCP wins this (because orange man bad or your trip experience or whatever), it's highly unlikely they are able to find 'replacement markets' for this outsize share of their economic output in 1, 2, 3, or 5 years.Quote:
For decades, the United States has remained China's dominant export destination, importing more Chinese goods than any other country in the world.
In 2023, China's global exports reached $3.4 trillion, with the United States receiving $502 billionor 14.8%of that total. This share significantly exceeded that of the second-largest recipient, Hong Kong, which accounted for 8.2% of China's exports.
Consumer electronics represents China's highest U.S. export dependency at 22% of its exports. Among all sectors, it also shows the smallest gap between U.S. and non-U.S. exports, with non-U.S. exports ($339 billion) only 3.5 times larger than U.S. exports ($96 billion).
Despite trade tensions, China maintains substantial export relationships with the U.S. across traditional manufacturing sectors, with home appliances (19%), textiles (17%), and optical/medical instruments (17%) showing notable U.S. market share.
The EU has frustrated China with several trade actions. First, it imposed tariffs up to 35.3% on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, citing unfair subsidies, which cut Chinese EV exports to Europe by 15% in early 2025. Second, the EU launched 33 trade defense cases in 2024, mostly… pic.twitter.com/J0GRoWIOaD
— Grok (@grok) April 14, 2025
This is the future of Canada.Ag in Tiger Country said:
They aren't the only ones; a video circulating shows a woman shopping for strawberries, where those from Canada cost $4.95 per lb while the US ones cost $1.49 a lb. If you consider Canada's GDP is the lowest of all Western nations, they're about to completely collapse- probably sooner than China (since the 'free' healthcare is in shambles, housing is 3 to 4 times that of the US, & citizens' income is 1/2 of the average US household).
This is the Canadian equivalent of YooKay. I’m calling it Cannaduh, after the way Caribbean, Indian and Middle-Eastern diaspora pronounce it. It exists solely in the GTA and Vancouver, coalescing into a non descriptive foreign mass, and is distinct from the nation. pic.twitter.com/8QbzUxU6bk
— Fortissax (@FortySacks) April 6, 2025
What in the world are you talking about? Petty, well what was petty in my post, in response to your post blasting someone for their eschatological views. I will say that I view you as clearly biased by your experience adopting both a Chinese and Ukrainian child as you've discussed/shared here (not that there's anything morally/politically objectionable to adopting foreign orphans etc). I also reject the notion that nation states/governments can't be criticized by people who have not visited them, which seems to have been implied.94chem said:
You had to make it personal, didn't you? Petty.
Now, what part of my statement is wrong?
And while you're waiting for the Curtis Mathis factory to start up, perhaps you could explain why a Chinese economic collapse is good for anybody? Seriously, how do you see that playing out?
If they keep their idiot response up, they won't need them. The countries replacing them in supplying the US will.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
AtticusMatlock said:
China is dealing with deflation. They are also far more in debt than we are. The amount of paper they have out there to fund all of this crap they've been building is astounding.
A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.
A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.
China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
Sure, we could trade editorials behind paywalls from various places if that serves some utilitarian purpose, but I don't see it.94chem said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/15/donald-trump-has-already-lost-his-trade-war-against-china/
Balance, not echo chamber.
The leader of French left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has voiced support for Canadian independence, denouncing what he described as threats from the “Gringo” US President Donald Trump. https://t.co/ZSYRoYYFF2
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) April 15, 2025
I am not about to get into eschatology, but there does seem to be some compelling evidence that their population number really is in that 500-600 million range. A full billion off from what they claim.OPAG said:
I am more than happy to engage with you about eschatology, but this is not the thread for it. (you will get trounced. )LOL
I am not just pulling the 500 million number out of my backside.
And where is China supposed to sell all this stuff that is coming to the US?
WestAustinAg said:
What proof do you have that China's population is 500 mil vs the 1.2 bil that they and the rest of the world believe it is?
Beyond youth unN headlines, welcome to #China's economic demography transition strategy (here re quantity toward quality labour): https://t.co/oqSgxjs7XM @davidpgoldman @Noahpinion @rodrikdani @IEAKwame @niubi @MaryGao @wucker @vivianwubeijing @gyude_moore @BrankoMilan @AOC https://t.co/AFbe0XHSvr
— Lauren Johnston 江诗伦 (@lajohnstondr) June 21, 2023
Tim Cook explains why Apple chooses China for manufacturing.
— Zero Fox Given (@zerofoxgiven21) April 12, 2025
It's not cheap labor. It's skill.
Engineering makes up 8% of degrees issued in the U.S., while in China it's 33%. 1 in 3 grads in China is an engineer. pic.twitter.com/fYUiV43YRi
Reminder that China graduate more STEM graduates than the rest of the world combined. The number keeps climbing every year
— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) December 27, 2024
There's no way the US can compete with that. pic.twitter.com/KDpa6y2pcL
Could be a fatal mistake.fasthorse05 said:THIS!TheRealJacob said:
Before China would allow itself to fall economically, they would probably invade Taiwan and take control over chip manufacturers, almost completely creating a chip monopoly.
Quote:
The US not only represents 25% of the world economy, which is quite impressive in itself. But it has about 40% of the world's consumer spending. No manufacturer of consumer products can afford to turn their backs on the US. China may be an attractive market, but it is not sufficiently large enough to make a dent in their losses should the US close our markets to them.
Which brings us to China itself.
🚨SOLVENCY ISSUES: Xi Jinping cannot ‘wait out’ Donald Trump’s tariffs
— Project Constitution (@ProjectConstitu) April 16, 2025
China's economy is reeling from the impact of tariffs, and public discontent is growing. On Douyin, China's version of TikTok, videos show citizens openly criticizing the government's rigid stance on tariffs,… pic.twitter.com/rJQkrZfAVW
More at the link.Quote:
China's strategy of growing its economic power and influence depends on a river of money with its headwaters in the United States. And its ability to make deals in countries not hostile to the United States is only possible because the US tolerates its moves and is committed to using only modest soft power to oppose the moves.
Donald Trump is not in a mood to tolerate expanding Chinese influence. Look at the Panama Canal port deals. Trump's goal is not so much to own the canal as to deny China influence in the region. China, not Panama, is the target.
In fact, most of Trump's seemingly bizarre foreign policy moves--Canada as the 51st state and annexing Greenland are about trying to change the political geography to keep China from gaining influence in the Arctic.
The flow of information out of China on economic performance since the tariffs hit is sparse, but I have been checking in on the social media chatter coming out of China, and the news is bleak. Consumer spending is down, export products are being sold at firesale prices, and business owners are locking doors and leaving employees unpaid. This is all chatter right now, but also likely true.
Amazing what happens when you actually TEACH kids from K-12, instead of the current babysitting, social promotion, bull**** we have today.Quote:
People over-state their demographic quandary, imho. They are producing a ton of engineers/STEM grads etc. It's not a particularly 'creative' group but I think this is something they have managed to at least achieve parity with us on.
These aren't 'the best' sources but I think it's a real challenge Americans need to recognize:
"I am not real convinced by folks who traipse over to communist countries and claim 'all is well and clean/good' there. Easy to find those reports online, and usually it's just dog-and-pony shows akin to a car review where the journalist is given airfare/lodging/food to write a fawning appraisal of the new vehicle."nortex97 said:
Shipments to us from them dropped over 64 percent week over week. Before tariffs went up to 194.Overall U.S. imports at -64% has got to be one of the most insane numbers in economic history.
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) April 17, 2025
I don't think people quite comprehend how disruptive that's going to be. https://t.co/nbsUoR4D4k
The Chinese economy is fascinating, and not just the industrial output, but the real estate market. Longish thread:7/
— CatGirl Kulak 😻😿 (Anarchonomicon) (@FromKulak) April 22, 2023
We've all seen the photos of China's ghost cities, hundreds of cities with thousands of massive housing complexes each, almost all sitting empty.
People assume the CCP is paying to build these as a make work scheme, but the truth is vastly, VASTLY Darker.
They're all sold. pic.twitter.com/3uvQUGsCBb12/
— CatGirl Kulak 😻😿 (Anarchonomicon) (@FromKulak) April 22, 2023
China doesn't have a meaningful social security system. They can't afford it
Horrible poverty exists near those shiny towers
Third world conditions are everywhere and that's what people will be reduced back to
The world once manufactured in the rust belt too pic.twitter.com/yFQw5siGDj
I am not real convinced by folks who traipse over to communist countries and claim 'all is well and clean/good' there. Easy to find those reports online, and usually it's just dog-and-pony shows akin to a car review where the journalist is given airfare/lodging/food to write a fawning appraisal of the new vehicle.
We'll see, but their economic outlook I think is pretty iffy, especially if they can't quickly resume trade with the US at normal levels.
aggie93 said:
The thing about China is no one really knows. When everything is manipulated propaganda and corruption is ingrained in the culture it makes it impossible to know how good or bad things really are. I don't think even Xi knows because I doubt his ministers are honest with him. He's a very intelligent and ruthless guy though.