Is China on the brink of collapse?

22,368 Views | 229 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by Pacifico
Pacifico
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AG
JohnClark929 said:

Has anyone here been to China?


I have. Several times
aggie93
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AG
The thing about China is no one really knows. When everything is manipulated propaganda and corruption is ingrained in the culture it makes it impossible to know how good or bad things really are. I don't think even Xi knows because I doubt his ministers are honest with him. He's a very intelligent and ruthless guy though.

The best and brightest from China come here and elsewhere though and don't want to move back. They get some but given a choice the best engineers want to live in the US and have our standard of living and freedom. I have been placing Chinese and Indians for decades in engineering fields and very rarely do they go home other than to see relatives, the Indians more than the Chinese. That's not absolute though by any stretch but that's been my experience.

China is an extremely complex situation as well because it culturally is anything but a singular country. You have the 2 main regions with all the jobs and food and then everywhere else and they all hate each other under the surface going back thousands of years. The amount of civil wars in China is such a long list it's impossible to even list them. It's a natural outgrowth of too large of a population and limited resources in certain areas. They can barely feed themselves and they don't remotely have enough energy and natural resources. That said they are extremely dangerous and unpredictable.

The biggest indicator to me China is in trouble is allowing their manufacturers to openly talk about selling foreign products on the cheap that they manufacture for others. They might was well hang a sign saying "Never, ever invest in China for manufacturing again" to the world. It's incredibly short sighted.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

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infinity ag
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Aggie95 said:

infinity ag said:

HoustonAg9999 said:

Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.


This is nonsense. They were over populated and so just had people have 1 child for some decades. Population is reduced comparatively. It's a good thing.

High pop growth is a ponzi scheme.


And a declining population is worse…..people's taxes are needed to fund the Ponzi schemes or they collapse

With expanding population, the country has to find a way to feed the population and to have enough jobs, else risk civil war. Where would that come from?

Nothing is free,
94chem
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JohnClark929 said:

Has anyone here been to China?


Yeah, 5 weeks total, in 2013 and 2024. Have an adopted son. Beijing twice, Wuhan twice, Hong Kong twice, Xian, Chengdu, Guilin, Guangzhou. Posted about my recent trip in Travel.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Seriously77
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94chem said:

JohnClark929 said:

Has anyone here been to China?


Yeah, 5 weeks total, in 2013 and 2024. Have an adopted son. Beijing twice, Wuhan twice, Hong Kong twice, Xian, Chengdu, Guilin, Guangzhou. Posted about my recent trip in Travel.
Do you see any Luckin Coffee shops?

They claim they are bigger than Starbucks, a Chinese coffee shop.
I own a lot of their stock.



https://www.luckincoffee.com/
94chem
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Seriously77 said:

94chem said:

JohnClark929 said:

Has anyone here been to China?


Yeah, 5 weeks total, in 2013 and 2024. Have an adopted son. Beijing twice, Wuhan twice, Hong Kong twice, Xian, Chengdu, Guilin, Guangzhou. Posted about my recent trip in Travel.
Do you see any Luckin Coffee shops?

They claim they are bigger than Starbucks, a Chinese coffee shop.
I own a lot of their stock.



https://www.luckincoffee.com/


Yeah, cause it sounded bad when I asked if anybody wanted a cup of Luckin Coffee.

I also drank 2 really nice bottles of baijou, which you can't even get at Spec's, yet it is the world's most consumed liquor.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
AlaskanAg99
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AG
China is not a homogeneous society. This is the #1 issue. Population decline is a big factor but the bigger factor is the population dispersion. Males are more likely to be rural and females more urban. A girl in China future is ties to who can she can marry (up). Rural males are at a huge disadvantage. Most women are moving to urban areas so you have a compounded population problem.

Next up, you have their housing sector issue and ghist cities. Too many people bought into a corrupt system of housing debt and their provinces over stating their economic potential tial, that doesn't exist, for a factory economy that has been eroded by companies moving out of China.

Lastly you have their entire corrupt and non verifiable economic economy overstaying (and stealing) IP which is driving their defensive economy. Defense is net loss to the economy if they're not doing anything. Ours provides safety for free trade. Theirs sits idle and unable to project power.

Irs all coming to a head. China had their largest private sector real estate company go belly up.

US wants to play hard ball, start delisting China companies from thr NYSE where their finances can't be verified.

PS: that's ALL Chinese companies.
nortex97
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AG
Shipments to us from them dropped over 64 percent week over week. Before tariffs went up to 194.

The Chinese economy is fascinating, and not just the industrial output, but the real estate market. Longish thread:


I am not real convinced by folks who traipse over to communist countries and claim 'all is well and clean/good' there. Easy to find those reports online, and usually it's just dog-and-pony shows akin to a car review where the journalist is given airfare/lodging/food to write a fawning appraisal of the new vehicle.

We'll see, but their economic outlook I think is pretty iffy, especially if they can't quickly resume trade with the US at normal levels.
agent-maroon
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AG
64% drop in shipments in a single week time frame? Looks like it may be a while before Harbor Freight has any decent coupons in the Friday morning email...
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OPAG
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JohnClark929 said:

Has anyone here been to China?
Yes many times and I was a pastor of a primarily mainland Chinese church in both Japan and in the US.

I really know what's going on there under the rind.

What he as been not mentioned here is that China cannot provide enough power to run themselves, they must import coal and gas. They also cannot feed themselves either, they have decimated their farm land with years of bad farming techniques as well as abut 50 years of industrial pollution.

Anyone who has been to China and knows Chinese will also tell you that they are anything but a homogenous people.

And yea, they lie like crazy about their population, they may 500 million, MAYBE.

An attack on Taiwan will be costly and they may not succeed either. They will have to invade by sea here at some point to get the troops they need on land, (Unless they have built unknown tunnels.)Let's just say this is not WWII any more. They will not be able to hide that and thermobaric bombs and missiles would have a devastating impact on an open amphibious assault group. Taiwan is not Ukraine either.

There could be unknowns here, but a direct war with China should be avoided if at all possible. It's really not a winning lotto ticket for anybody. However China has to quit seeing itself as the worlds dominant power. Where everything and everyone is subservient to Beijing.

Prayer and intercession is actually the most effective weapon in the tool bag at this time.
94chem
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Maybe 500 million? So how many people do you think there are in Beijing? Shanghai? Hangzhou? Shenzhen? Hong Kong? Guangzhou? Chongqing? Harbin? Xian? Chengdu?

Your take on this is about as good as your take on eschatology.

15% of Chinese exports go to the US. They can find new outlets faster than we can start making stuff.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
nortex97
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AG
94chem said:

15% of Chinese exports go to the US. They can find new outlets faster than we can start making stuff.
That's just not true and it's an absurd/myopic take. First, key categories are dependent on their largest export market, us:
Quote:


For decades, the United States has remained China's dominant export destination, importing more Chinese goods than any other country in the world.

In 2023, China's global exports reached $3.4 trillion, with the United States receiving $502 billionor 14.8%of that total. This share significantly exceeded that of the second-largest recipient, Hong Kong, which accounted for 8.2% of China's exports.

Consumer electronics represents China's highest U.S. export dependency at 22% of its exports. Among all sectors, it also shows the smallest gap between U.S. and non-U.S. exports, with non-U.S. exports ($339 billion) only 3.5 times larger than U.S. exports ($96 billion).

Despite trade tensions, China maintains substantial export relationships with the U.S. across traditional manufacturing sectors, with home appliances (19%), textiles (17%), and optical/medical instruments (17%) showing notable U.S. market share.
If one includes Hong Kong's exports, and the share of exports to Canada/Mexico et al. which wind up being components in finished goods sent to the US, it's even larger. Despite your hope that the CCP wins this (because orange man bad or your trip experience or whatever), it's highly unlikely they are able to find 'replacement markets' for this outsize share of their economic output in 1, 2, 3, or 5 years.

And, if the US winds up partnering with the EU to negotiate better trade terms with the CCP, the latter again would have even less leverage. Their EV shipments to Europe are also down significantly this year, fyi:
94chem
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You had to make it personal, didn't you? Petty.

Now, what part of my statement is wrong?

And while you're waiting for the Curtis Mathis factory to start up, perhaps you could explain why a Chinese economic collapse is good for anybody? Seriously, how do you see that playing out?

94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
EclipseAg
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Ag in Tiger Country said:

They aren't the only ones; a video circulating shows a woman shopping for strawberries, where those from Canada cost $4.95 per lb while the US ones cost $1.49 a lb. If you consider Canada's GDP is the lowest of all Western nations, they're about to completely collapse- probably sooner than China (since the 'free' healthcare is in shambles, housing is 3 to 4 times that of the US, & citizens' income is 1/2 of the average US household).
This is the future of Canada.

nortex97
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AG
94chem said:

You had to make it personal, didn't you? Petty.

Now, what part of my statement is wrong?

And while you're waiting for the Curtis Mathis factory to start up, perhaps you could explain why a Chinese economic collapse is good for anybody? Seriously, how do you see that playing out?
What in the world are you talking about? Petty, well what was petty in my post, in response to your post blasting someone for their eschatological views. I will say that I view you as clearly biased by your experience adopting both a Chinese and Ukrainian child as you've discussed/shared here (not that there's anything morally/politically objectionable to adopting foreign orphans etc). I also reject the notion that nation states/governments can't be criticized by people who have not visited them, which seems to have been implied.

I haven't read a critical comment you've posted about the CCP or their trade practices, particularly vis a vis the current trade situation, but maybe I missed it, sorry if so.

Are you hoping Trump (as the American president) does 'win?' Did I imply I want the Chinese people to suffer? I do overtly/openly detest the CCP and their impact on politics in places like the US (democrats), Canada (liberal party) etc, as well as their human rights practices. They still tout Mao videos, after all.
94chem
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/15/donald-trump-has-already-lost-his-trade-war-against-china/

Balance, not echo chamber.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
OPAG
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AG
I am more than happy to engage with you about eschatology, but this is not the thread for it. (you will get trounced. )LOL

I am not just pulling the 500 million number out of my backside.

And where is China supposed to sell all this stuff that is coming to the US?
richardag
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infinity ag said:

They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
If they keep their idiot response up, they won't need them. The countries replacing them in supplying the US will.
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
Ag In Ok
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AG
I appreciate the attempt, but that reads like a press release from Hakim Jeffries.
WestAustinAg
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AG
AtticusMatlock said:

China is dealing with deflation. They are also far more in debt than we are. The amount of paper they have out there to fund all of this crap they've been building is astounding.

A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.

A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.

China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
nortex97
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AG
94chem said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/15/donald-trump-has-already-lost-his-trade-war-against-china/

Balance, not echo chamber.
Sure, we could trade editorials behind paywalls from various places if that serves some utilitarian purpose, but I don't see it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/04/10/trumps-tariffs-have-left-xi-jinpings-china-isolated/

I guess you don't have any substantive criticisms of the CCP, as I expected. I don't want to get into a petty discussion about it, really, and don't particularly care at this point given your evident lack of seriousness.

There are clearly factions in Europe (as here, on the left) which are axiomatically aligned against American interests vs. China.

China, nor Russia, the US, or Europe itself is politically/socially/culturally monolithic.
TacosaurusRex
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OPAG said:

I am more than happy to engage with you about eschatology, but this is not the thread for it. (you will get trounced. )LOL

I am not just pulling the 500 million number out of my backside.

And where is China supposed to sell all this stuff that is coming to the US?
I am not about to get into eschatology, but there does seem to be some compelling evidence that their population number really is in that 500-600 million range. A full billion off from what they claim.
WestAustinAg
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AG
What proof do you have that China's population is 500 mil vs the 1.2 bil that they and the rest of the world believe it is?
AtticusMatlock
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https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/gordon-chang-trump-tariffing-china-worst-possible-time-xi-jinping

Gordon Chang wrote a good opinion piece for Fox today.

Chinese CPI and PPI are both dropping yet China is still reporting 5.4% GDP growth. It makes no sense. It is highly likely their economy is actually contracting. They are in a deflationary middle income trap. Their debt to GDP will push 400% soon.

Xi would have to reverse all of the hardball messaging he's been spewing out to the population for the last decade in order to make a deal, and he seems unwilling to look bad.

The rest of the world doesn't want China dumping their crap on them either.
AtticusMatlock
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WestAustinAg said:

What proof do you have that China's population is 500 mil vs the 1.2 bil that they and the rest of the world believe it is?



The 500 million value is wacky. They are likely around 1.1 to 1.2 billion but dropping. They officially reported 1.4 billion but nobody believes that.
infinity ag
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Pop Drop is good.

Fewer mouths to feed. Of course, some drawbacks too.
nortex97
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AG
People over-state their demographic quandary, imho. They are producing a ton of engineers/STEM grads etc. It's not a particularly 'creative' group but I think this is something they have managed to at least achieve parity with us on.

These aren't 'the best' sources but I think it's a real challenge Americans need to recognize:



Fortunately for us as a nation state (and tragically as humans/christians), I think gender-selective abortion (they kill the girls) has led to a great shortfall of reproductive-age females though (as with Japan/India, fwiw). I hope folks realize what we are facing though, and why Trump is right to press this trade/manufacturing issue right now.
richardag
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fasthorse05 said:

TheRealJacob said:

Before China would allow itself to fall economically, they would probably invade Taiwan and take control over chip manufacturers, almost completely creating a chip monopoly.
THIS!
Could be a fatal mistake.
During a monsoon season there was conjecture the 3 Gorges dam may fail. It became distorted from the pressure.
I would consider the possibility that Taiwan has plans to damage/destroy some dams upstream from the 3 Gorges dam including the 3 Gorges damn.
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
BadMoonRisin
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AG
Sure, tim. It's skill....


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn_suicides
nortex97
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AG
I agree, but still, they churn out a lot of engineers. However:

Quote:

The US not only represents 25% of the world economy, which is quite impressive in itself. But it has about 40% of the world's consumer spending. No manufacturer of consumer products can afford to turn their backs on the US. China may be an attractive market, but it is not sufficiently large enough to make a dent in their losses should the US close our markets to them.

Which brings us to China itself.

"Strong but brittle" is about right.
Quote:

China's strategy of growing its economic power and influence depends on a river of money with its headwaters in the United States. And its ability to make deals in countries not hostile to the United States is only possible because the US tolerates its moves and is committed to using only modest soft power to oppose the moves.

Donald Trump is not in a mood to tolerate expanding Chinese influence. Look at the Panama Canal port deals. Trump's goal is not so much to own the canal as to deny China influence in the region. China, not Panama, is the target.

In fact, most of Trump's seemingly bizarre foreign policy moves--Canada as the 51st state and annexing Greenland are about trying to change the political geography to keep China from gaining influence in the Arctic.

The flow of information out of China on economic performance since the tariffs hit is sparse, but I have been checking in on the social media chatter coming out of China, and the news is bleak. Consumer spending is down, export products are being sold at firesale prices, and business owners are locking doors and leaving employees unpaid. This is all chatter right now, but also likely true.
More at the link.
Aggie95
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AG
Quote:

People over-state their demographic quandary, imho. They are producing a ton of engineers/STEM grads etc. It's not a particularly 'creative' group but I think this is something they have managed to at least achieve parity with us on.

These aren't 'the best' sources but I think it's a real challenge Americans need to recognize:
Amazing what happens when you actually TEACH kids from K-12, instead of the current babysitting, social promotion, bull**** we have today.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
TheEternalOptimist
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This is a video by Matthew Ty, better known as Laowhy86 on youtube. He lived in China for more than 10 years working as a teacher and also doing video documentaries as he rode around China on a motorcycle. He went from being a big advocate of living in China to seeing the corruption for what it is and essentially having to escape through Hong Kong with his Chinese wife when the CCP started harassing him. Anyways... here is his video showing why the CCP is in real danger of collapse:

2026NCAggies
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Japan is their next biggest customer? Yeah they are F'ed

Japan hates China. They may re-populate just to have the numbers
Noctilucent
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AG
nortex97 said:

Shipments to us from them dropped over 64 percent week over week. Before tariffs went up to 194.

The Chinese economy is fascinating, and not just the industrial output, but the real estate market. Longish thread:


I am not real convinced by folks who traipse over to communist countries and claim 'all is well and clean/good' there. Easy to find those reports online, and usually it's just dog-and-pony shows akin to a car review where the journalist is given airfare/lodging/food to write a fawning appraisal of the new vehicle.

We'll see, but their economic outlook I think is pretty iffy, especially if they can't quickly resume trade with the US at normal levels.
"I am not real convinced by folks who traipse over to communist countries and claim 'all is well and clean/good' there. Easy to find those reports online, and usually it's just dog-and-pony shows akin to a car review where the journalist is given airfare/lodging/food to write a fawning appraisal of the new vehicle."

Calling Walter Duranty! Calling Walter Duranty! No one would be better to cover the Chicoms, so too bad 'ol Walt ain't still around.

https://www.nytco.com/company/prizes-awards/new-york-times-statement-about-1932-pulitzer-prize-awarded-to-walter-duranty/

This is pretty much what I think of our Legacy Media. . .POSs all!
YouBet
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AG
aggie93 said:

The thing about China is no one really knows. When everything is manipulated propaganda and corruption is ingrained in the culture it makes it impossible to know how good or bad things really are. I don't think even Xi knows because I doubt his ministers are honest with him. He's a very intelligent and ruthless guy though.


There was an article in the WSJ last year that actually covered this. Xi was/is actually relatively isolated according to this article. As with any centralized government like this, the top guy gets lied to by his underlings because of multiple reasons (1) they are skimming off the top (2) they are scared to tell him the truth, (3) third reason here. As he has gradually centralized China even more so compared to his predecessor, he has exacerbated this issue.

For others claiming the 500M population number, I would love to see some information on that. I'm not disputing it yet. It's fascinating to think if they are actually lying by 1B people. Be curious to read anything on why people more in the know think that.
 
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