jt16 said:

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BigRobSA said:

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dermdoc said:

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Never said anything about a wrongful death charge. I just read how people respond. The camps are basically circling the wagons. You don't do that unless you are in a bad position. We shall see.

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It might be because more government involvement won't really help things. It rarely ever does.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but emotions are high right now...rightly so.... and what some might normally be against in any other situation, those same emotions might be driving them to ask for things they usually wouldn't in other situations.

This whole thing sounds like a worst-case, act of God, scenario that "more government" absolutely wouldn't have changed.

God bless the families and all involved, though. I can't imagine the absolutely gut-wrenching sadness.

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I think we all have the same dog in this fight. We all wish this never happened and want it to never happen again. We all know that the Eastlands loved the kids and there was nothing malicious in play. We all know this was a tragic event. Some of us think negligence could have still played a part. I wish the parent blaming would come to a full stop.

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Txalli said:

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Honest questions here… What is the criteria for determining evacuation versus staying in place prior to flooding? Is there any?

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aggiehawg said:

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derm, one of my girlfriend's Mom and younger brother lived in a house on Shoal Creek during the Memorial Day floods in Austin in 1981. They had had water come up in their backyard a few times since they were right on the creek. That was expected. They had an evacuation plan to get to higher ground but it involved driving to get out of the neighborhood. Not very far away, either, not even half a mile. So they watched the backyard to see where the water level was.

But when the water rose so fast, and came at their house from several directions due to street flooding, no way to evacuate, surrounded by ever deepening water. Their cars were flooded inside the garage. Tried to flee on foot but only could get to the end of their front yard and hold onto a tree for a few hours until the waters went don enough for emergency responders to even get to that neighborhood.

The house was a mess, cars totaled but they survived. One can prepare but not always accurately predict.

My sincerest condolences to your family and all of the familes affected by this horrendous event.

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Mr. Frodo said:

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Grok Summarized two bills as follows… are these good summaries? Seem pretty reasonable… licensing program a black hole and broad but seems appropriate.

Senate Bill 1 (Natural Disaster Preparation and Recovery):
Requires youth camps located in 100-year floodplains to develop and implement flood evacuation plans when flood warnings are issued.
Mandates the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to establish a licensing program for emergency managers and require annual training for all emergency coordinators.
Obliges local governments to conduct annual emergency drills supervised by TDEM.
Requires local governments to submit after-action reports within 60 days following a disaster.
Establishes a working group to centralize meteorological data, recommend improvements to statewide weather coverage, and allow higher education institutions to join regional flood planning groups.
Strengthens disaster response by requiring training for local officials and enhancing communication between state and local agencies.


Senate Bill 2 (Flood Emergency Communication and Warning):
Directs the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to identify high-risk flood areas and require local governments to install outdoor warning sirens in those locations.
Requires TWDB to establish rules for siren operation, standards for installation and maintenance, and requirements for backup power systems.
Creates a grant program to help communities cover the costs of installing, testing, and maintaining the sirens.
Mandates coordination between local governments and emergency management agencies for siren deployment.

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laavispa said:

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Lots of moving parts in this discussion. One thing keeps bothering me in the data presented by MCASTX, the complete absence of flow data upstream from the confluence of the Guadalope branches at Hunt. The only decision-making type of information comes from an after the fact graph compiled by MCSATX on what might have happened to sway decisions.

The people ultimately responsible for supplying river data seems to be the Upper Guadalope River Authority. Yet when I look at their website for FY 2025 little or no emphasis is on flood mitigation. For example, flood warning systems above Hunt, the presence of which might have made a huge impact at Mystic. As some have pointed out the Mystic plan might have worked with timely information.

Simple or complex plans are always subject to Sod's Law in that Mother Nature has a vote.

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dermdoc said:

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BigRobSA said:

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dermdoc said:

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Never said anything about a wrongful death charge. I just read how people respond. The camps are basically circling the wagons. You don't do that unless you are in a bad position. We shall see.

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It might be because more government involvement won't really help things. It rarely ever does.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but emotions are high right now...rightly so.... and what some might normally be against in any other situation, those same emotions might be driving them to ask for things they usually wouldn't in other situations.

This whole thing sounds like a worst-case, act of God, scenario that "more government" absolutely wouldn't have changed.

God bless the families and all involved, though. I can't imagine the absolutely gut-wrenching sadness.

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You know me well enough to know how much I hate government anything except basic enumerated Constitutional powers.

With things like this, I am usually all for calling it an act of God and move on.

But I think discovery is going to show that these deaths could have been prevented fairly easily with just common sense and appropriate preparation. I actually believe that with zero planning there was still time to save everyone with appropriate decision making.

i do not know how you correct bad decision making. Or "punish" it. I know that if I make bad decisions as a doctor,I have liability and can be sued (not so much since tort reform) or even punished by the Texas State Board

So how do you correct bad decision making? I think in this case, especially with kids and young counselors involved, a concrete plan is needed so there are fewer decisions to make when the sheet hits the fan.

It is kind of like sports, medicine, fire fighting, police work, the military, etc. You practice and drill beforehand so that when crap happens you just perform as you have been taught. Minimized critical decision making as you are basically programmed.

If you read Mystic's flood "plans", which basically was shelter in place and let the Eastlands make the decisions, it seems obvious that was not adequate,

The obvious question is that "Would planning and preparation in this event be enough to overcome bad decision making"?

We will never know for sure. But I think it would have helped tremendously.

The other possible solution that could be provided by the bills is to force the camps to build cabins higher. You obviously can't predict how high the water will go a future flood events.

So I think the bills could help by requiring plans and higher cabin builds. Perfect, no. No plans are. But common sense screams that just doing nothing and whistling in the dark is insane. Especially with the lives of kids.

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dermdoc said:

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Mr. Frodo said:

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Grok Summarized two bills as follows… are these good summaries? Seem pretty reasonable… licensing program a black hole and broad but seems appropriate.

Senate Bill 1 (Natural Disaster Preparation and Recovery):
Requires youth camps located in 100-year floodplains to develop and implement flood evacuation plans when flood warnings are issued.
Mandates the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to establish a licensing program for emergency managers and require annual training for all emergency coordinators.
Obliges local governments to conduct annual emergency drills supervised by TDEM.
Requires local governments to submit after-action reports within 60 days following a disaster.
Establishes a working group to centralize meteorological data, recommend improvements to statewide weather coverage, and allow higher education institutions to join regional flood planning groups.
Strengthens disaster response by requiring training for local officials and enhancing communication between state and local agencies.


Senate Bill 2 (Flood Emergency Communication and Warning):
Directs the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to identify high-risk flood areas and require local governments to install outdoor warning sirens in those locations.
Requires TWDB to establish rules for siren operation, standards for installation and maintenance, and requirements for backup power systems.
Creates a grant program to help communities cover the costs of installing, testing, and maintaining the sirens.
Mandates coordination between local governments and emergency management agencies for siren deployment.

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And the camps being against these bills is mind blowing. And very revealing about their priorities.

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No Spin Ag said:

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dermdoc said:

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Mr. Frodo said:

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Grok Summarized two bills as follows… are these good summaries? Seem pretty reasonable… licensing program a black hole and broad but seems appropriate.

Senate Bill 1 (Natural Disaster Preparation and Recovery):
Requires youth camps located in 100-year floodplains to develop and implement flood evacuation plans when flood warnings are issued.
Mandates the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to establish a licensing program for emergency managers and require annual training for all emergency coordinators.
Obliges local governments to conduct annual emergency drills supervised by TDEM.
Requires local governments to submit after-action reports within 60 days following a disaster.
Establishes a working group to centralize meteorological data, recommend improvements to statewide weather coverage, and allow higher education institutions to join regional flood planning groups.
Strengthens disaster response by requiring training for local officials and enhancing communication between state and local agencies.


Senate Bill 2 (Flood Emergency Communication and Warning):
Directs the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to identify high-risk flood areas and require local governments to install outdoor warning sirens in those locations.
Requires TWDB to establish rules for siren operation, standards for installation and maintenance, and requirements for backup power systems.
Creates a grant program to help communities cover the costs of installing, testing, and maintaining the sirens.
Mandates coordination between local governments and emergency management agencies for siren deployment.

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And the camps being against these bills is mind blowing. And very revealing about their priorities.

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Being against these bills makes me wonder just how much greed is at the core of those individuals.

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laavispa said:

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I can see where the cited owners are objecting to portions of the legislation.

" Sec. 141.0052. PROHIBITED LICENSURE OF YOUTH CAMPS WITHIN

FLOODPLAIN; EXCEPTION. (a) The department shall not issue or renew

a youth camp license for a youth camp that operates one or more

cabins located within a floodplain."

From the letter it seems they are asking for some type of remediation process through the TWB to determine their operating parameters. Of course, if they have minimal structures in the floodway they can abandon, not rebuild and build elsewhere.

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laavispa said:

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Why should say Wademar be concerned at this point about lawsuits? They, to my knowledge, were not in session on the 4th. I have not seen the other two mentioned in any news report of fatalities, thus liability for the events of the 4th may be moot.

A well-meaning legislature in knee jerk fashion takes a sledgehammer to a problem. Sure the 'child camper' issue needs to be addressed in a manner that mitigates the potential loss of life. It would help to force owners to have a more robust EAP and practice what they preach (not often done in EAPs). It would also help if local governments got off their collective arses and spent some time on these issues, I can assure you Kerr County held this flood issue on a back burner- with ample opportunity to act.

I note OP was concerning an RV park lawsuit, have we had suits filed, to your knowledge, specifically to Mystic?

If i haven't done so, my condolences. My grandchildren are dear to me as well.

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mcsatx said:

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Quote:

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July 4th 2025 crest was less than 1' above the 1932 crest. plans should have been made for the 1932 crest at a minimum, not the 100 yr flood.

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A few data points from the 1932 flood:

The 1932 flood was from a 2-day rainfall event totaling 15-30 inches.

A newspaper from 1932 indicated the flood was a foot deep in the Mess Hall. If that report is correct, that would put the high water mark at about 1842.5' at Mystic (based on the floor elevation survey from the LOMA records). That is about 9 feet lower than the 2025 high water mark which suggests that the 1932 flood was not as severe along the South Fork as it was in Hunt. This aligns with testimony from the Camp La Junta owner who said this flood surpassed their previous high water mark by a large amount.

There isn't a linear relationship with flood height and overall magnitude of a flood. The USGS rating curve shows the 2025 flood way beyond the 1932 flood even though there was less than 1 foot of height difference.

The Mystic cabin floor elevations do appear to have been constructed using the 1932 high water mark as a baseline. Twins is about 2 feet higher and Bubble is about 3 feet higher.

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Mathguy64 said:

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I don't have a dog in this hunt. I've never sent a child to any of these camps. Hell, I had never heard of them until that night. But it turns out I have friends who have sent their daughters there for years (back in the 80s and 90s).

I think several things can all be true. I think the camps can be great places. I think the owners can be wonderful people. I think the owners can be just woefully underprepared for any kind of real emergency. And I think this horrible tragedy could have been impossible to plan for.

We have all seen the daylight videos from the Llano flood coming down the Kingsland slab the week after. That water in a much wider channel went from a trickle on dry rock to covering the road more than 15 foot up in less than 5 minutes.

Imagine that happening at night. No one without ample warning gets off that slab. No emergency plan would survive that event because the people implementing it would never have practiced it at night under real stress.

I don't care what kind of plan the Eastland's would have had it wouldn't have been made for that kind of event.

Having said that, the plans there (at least the ones we have seen) were woefully unready for anything. It looks like their plan for any emergency was "go find Dick". That plan has probably been the camp emergency plan for everything since it opened. "Go find XXX." That's what it was in 1930 and it's just been modernized because no one made them modernize it.

It's not just the lack of walkie talkies as comms. I will guess that the camp counselor training was passed down year over year between the trainees and full counselors. They relied on someone being a camper for years to then come back to be a counselor. They just self trained.

It's been stated they didn't have to have CPR training. Fine. Where was the AED? How did you access it? If there was one did anyone k is how to use it? What did they do if someone fell and broke an arm? What if someone got bit by a snake? What was the plan if someone woke up throwing up in the middle of the night? I find it hard to believe the answer to all these issue was "go find Dick" but the docs seen to suggest that really was the plan.

Did any of the counselors do online training before showing up? They should have. Sounds like they didn't.

That emergency plan should have been a thick manual and every non camper working there should have been through online or F2F training every year before a single child ever stepped foot on the property.

And not to single out Mystic, every camp should have done that. And should do that going forward. The fact that they carry insurance should have forced that years ago.

Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

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aggiehawg said:

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Again, my deepest condolences. That was hard to watch but it needs to be. Thought I had shed enough tears for the children and their families but here I am, crying again.

Prayers sent, again.

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Txalli said:

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Honest questions here… What is the criteria for determining evacuation versus staying in place prior to flooding? Is there any?

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dermdoc said:

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Mathguy64 said:

---

I don't have a dog in this hunt. I've never sent a child to any of these camps. Hell, I had never heard of them until that night. But it turns out I have friends who have sent their daughters there for years (back in the 80s and 90s).

I think several things can all be true. I think the camps can be great places. I think the owners can be wonderful people. I think the owners can be just woefully underprepared for any kind of real emergency. And I think this horrible tragedy could have been impossible to plan for.

We have all seen the daylight videos from the Llano flood coming down the Kingsland slab the week after. That water in a much wider channel went from a trickle on dry rock to covering the road more than 15 foot up in less than 5 minutes.

Imagine that happening at night. No one without ample warning gets off that slab. No emergency plan would survive that event because the people implementing it would never have practiced it at night under real stress.

I don't care what kind of plan the Eastland's would have had it wouldn't have been made for that kind of event.

Having said that, the plans there (at least the ones we have seen) were woefully unready for anything. It looks like their plan for any emergency was "go find Dick". That plan has probably been the camp emergency plan for everything since it opened. "Go find XXX." That's what it was in 1930 and it's just been modernized because no one made them modernize it.

It's not just the lack of walkie talkies as comms. I will guess that the camp counselor training was passed down year over year between the trainees and full counselors. They relied on someone being a camper for years to then come back to be a counselor. They just self trained.

It's been stated they didn't have to have CPR training. Fine. Where was the AED? How did you access it? If there was one did anyone k is how to use it? What did they do if someone fell and broke an arm? What if someone got bit by a snake? What was the plan if someone woke up throwing up in the middle of the night? I find it hard to believe the answer to all these issue was "go find Dick" but the docs seen to suggest that really was the plan.

Did any of the counselors do online training before showing up? They should have. Sounds like they didn't.

That emergency plan should have been a thick manual and every non camper working there should have been through online or F2F training every year before a single child ever stepped foot on the property.

And not to single out Mystic, every camp should have done that. And should do that going forward. The fact that they carry insurance should have forced that years ago.

Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

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Good post. Why is it not the camp's fault to have sirens when they are a private entity generating millions in profit?

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dermdoc said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Again, my deepest condolences. That was hard to watch but it needs to be. Thought I had shed enough tears for the children and their families but here I am, crying again.

Prayers sent, again.

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I know how people can be so calloused to this and am no longer surprised. Just love me some MG.

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aggiehawg said:

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dermdoc said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Again, my deepest condolences. That was hard to watch but it needs to be. Thought I had shed enough tears for the children and their families but here I am, crying again.

Prayers sent, again.

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I know how people can be so calloused to this and am no longer surprised. Just love me some MG.

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Being a good Ag and a good person, generally go together in my 66 years of experience.

You sir, are upholding that by your example. Thank you.

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Mathguy64 said:

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Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

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agracer said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

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The problem was there was no plan for that event at 3:00 AM. They just relied on "this is what we've always done" and everyone said "OK".

If they had a plan beyond "go find Dick" then the lawsuits likely would not get far b/c any reasonable plan, and practice and training of that plan, would show they did what they could to mitigate harm to campers in the event of the July floods.

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Quote:

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An effective warning system for a river valley like the Guad west of Kerrville needs water level sensors upstream tied to sirens miles downstream to give adequate time for people to respond before the flood gets there. Such a system is very difficult for a private landowner to implement due to the need for sensors upstream on land they may not own. It is not beyond the means for a county level government or a regional river authority to implement and they should have done so a long time ago on the Guad given the number of people who vacation on it and camp within the floodplains regularly.

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Quote:

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About a decade after it was installed, in the late '80s the flood alert system became antiquated and broken. The river authority ultimately shut it down in 1999, saying it was "unreliable with some of the system's stations not reporting information," according to an article in the Kerrville Daily Times.

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Mathguy64 said:

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I don't have a dog in this hunt. I've never sent a child to any of these camps. Hell, I had never heard of them until that night. But it turns out I have friends who have sent their daughters there for years (back in the 80s and 90s).

I think several things can all be true. I think the camps can be great places. I think the owners can be wonderful people. I think the owners can be just woefully underprepared for any kind of real emergency. And I think this horrible tragedy could have been impossible to plan for.

We have all seen the daylight videos from the Llano flood coming down the Kingsland slab the week after. That water in a much wider channel went from a trickle on dry rock to covering the road more than 15 foot up in less than 5 minutes.

Imagine that happening at night. No one without ample warning gets off that slab. No emergency plan would survive that event because the people implementing it would never have practiced it at night under real stress.

I don't care what kind of plan the Eastland's would have had it wouldn't have been made for that kind of event.

Having said that, the plans there (at least the ones we have seen) were woefully unready for anything. It looks like their plan for any emergency was "go find Dick". That plan has probably been the camp emergency plan for everything since it opened. "Go find XXX." That's what it was in 1930 and it's just been modernized because no one made them modernize it.

It's not just the lack of walkie talkies as comms. I will guess that the camp counselor training was passed down year over year between the trainees and full counselors. They relied on someone being a camper for years to then come back to be a counselor. They just self trained.

It's been stated they didn't have to have CPR training. Fine. Where was the AED? How did you access it? If there was one did anyone k is how to use it? What did they do if someone fell and broke an arm? What if someone got bit by a snake? What was the plan if someone woke up throwing up in the middle of the night? I find it hard to believe the answer to all these issue was "go find Dick" but the docs seen to suggest that really was the plan.

Did any of the counselors do online training before showing up? They should have. Sounds like they didn't.

That emergency plan should have been a thick manual and every non camper working there should have been through online or F2F training every year before a single child ever stepped foot on the property.

And not to single out Mystic, every camp should have done that. And should do that going forward. The fact that they carry insurance should have forced that years ago.

Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

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evangeline said:

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Mathguy64 said:

---

I don't have a dog in this hunt. I've never sent a child to any of these camps. Hell, I had never heard of them until that night. But it turns out I have friends who have sent their daughters there for years (back in the 80s and 90s).

I think several things can all be true. I think the camps can be great places. I think the owners can be wonderful people. I think the owners can be just woefully underprepared for any kind of real emergency. And I think this horrible tragedy could have been impossible to plan for.

We have all seen the daylight videos from the Llano flood coming down the Kingsland slab the week after. That water in a much wider channel went from a trickle on dry rock to covering the road more than 15 foot up in less than 5 minutes.

Imagine that happening at night. No one without ample warning gets off that slab. No emergency plan would survive that event because the people implementing it would never have practiced it at night under real stress.

I don't care what kind of plan the Eastland's would have had it wouldn't have been made for that kind of event.

Having said that, the plans there (at least the ones we have seen) were woefully unready for anything. It looks like their plan for any emergency was "go find Dick". That plan has probably been the camp emergency plan for everything since it opened. "Go find XXX." That's what it was in 1930 and it's just been modernized because no one made them modernize it.

It's not just the lack of walkie talkies as comms. I will guess that the camp counselor training was passed down year over year between the trainees and full counselors. They relied on someone being a camper for years to then come back to be a counselor. They just self trained.

It's been stated they didn't have to have CPR training. Fine. Where was the AED? How did you access it? If there was one did anyone k is how to use it? What did they do if someone fell and broke an arm? What if someone got bit by a snake? What was the plan if someone woke up throwing up in the middle of the night? I find it hard to believe the answer to all these issue was "go find Dick" but the docs seen to suggest that really was the plan.

Did any of the counselors do online training before showing up? They should have. Sounds like they didn't.

That emergency plan should have been a thick manual and every non camper working there should have been through online or F2F training every year before a single child ever stepped foot on the property.

And not to single out Mystic, every camp should have done that. And should do that going forward. The fact that they carry insurance should have forced that years ago.

Having said all that, I still come back to watching that water come down the Kingsland slab and think "no emergency plan survives that event at 3:00 AM"

The camps couldn't have prepared for that. Should the river authority? Should there have been sirens and monitors? That's a different discussion. And that's not the camps' fault.

---

The plan for all of these would be to send a camper or two the infirmary. The nurses would ride up to where ever in the golf cart.

Because of what happened, I think a lot of people are assuming Dick was involved more in the day to day as he really was. Really the first lines of defense were the big three counselors and the nurses.

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