***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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LMCane
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 8:47a, 3/3/26
The Fall Guy said:
Science Denier said:
Who?mikejones! said:

At this point, do other countries attacking Iran actually help? Seems like piling on a carcass to get brownie points.


Let them do it


and it actually DOES help in the real world not just propaganda

Iran is twice the size of Texas, there are a lot of places to hide ballistic missiles and launchers

you need to have constant fighter bomber sweeps over a massive territory to be on station right when the launchers drive out of their tunnel hideouts.
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jamey
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In reply to bonfarr • 8:47a, 3/3/26
AG
bonfarr said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
Not for taking out ballistic missiles but for drone defense it matters.


The APKWS does not appear to be for drone defense. Its just a cheap missile used against lightly armored targets


No here is a Houthi drone shot down with one of these missiles.



https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rockets-now-primary-anti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east



So they took a air to surface use missile and are trying to use it against drones with multiple and scores of hits. Sounds very beta
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nortex97
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8:47a, 3/3/26
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 8:48a, 3/3/26
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
I think Trump was basically broadcasting to the Iranian people to be ready to take over and made a calculation that if we degrade the iran govt to a certain degree, we wouldnt need to worry about the regime change part of this

The differences between Iran and Iraq/Afghanistan is Iran had a singular identity before. They were a Persian state, unlike a group of disparate tribes and identities in Iraq/Afghanistan. Much easier in the aftermath as they won't be trying to cobble together a coalition.

Having said that, the goals for Iran are pretty simple: no nukes, cut ballistic missiles severely, no more proxies in funding nor support and inspections allowed to verify these.
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nortex97
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8:57a, 3/3/26
AG

More job openings in Tehran.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 8:58a, 3/3/26
The Fall Guy said:
Science Denier said:
Who?mikejones! said:

At this point, do other countries attacking Iran actually help? Seems like piling on a carcass to get brownie points.


Let them do it


Agreed. Iranian government is a dead horse that i have no proven seeing beaten.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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The Collective
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 8:59a, 3/3/26
AG
The Fall Guy said:
Science Denier said:
Who?mikejones! said:

At this point, do other countries attacking Iran actually help? Seems like piling on a carcass to get brownie points.


Let them do it


The bigger point is them joining and attacking vs. calling for peace in the area to stop them from being attacked. Politically, the former is huge in my mind.
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bonfarr
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:03a, 3/3/26
AG
It looks like we are engaging Kurdish Separatist Militias and encouraging them to join the fight against the IRGC which they have been fighting for a long time. They are armed and have experience but if there is a regime change I am not sure how it all plays out. Most Iranians are wary of the Kurds because they want to keep fighting until they have an autonomous territory for all of their people scattered across the ME and there is recent friction between Kurdish leadership and Reza Pahlavi. If they join the fight in a big way and there is regime change what are they going to demand? They aren't just going to skulk back across the border into Iraq.
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Sims
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:05a, 3/3/26
AG
aggiehawg said:
Who?mikejones! said:
I think Trump was basically broadcasting to the Iranian people to be ready to take over and made a calculation that if we degrade the iran govt to a certain degree, we wouldnt need to worry about the regime change part of this

The differences between Iran and Iraq/Afghanistan is Iran had a singular identity before. They were a Persian state, unlike a group of disparate tribes and identities in Iraq/Afghanistan. Much easier in the aftermath as they won't be trying to cobble together a coalition.

Having said that, the goals for Iran are pretty simple: no nukes, cut ballistic missiles severely, no more proxies in funding nor support and inspections allowed to verify these.

I'd be willing to bet the biggest impediment(s) to an ascendant Persian state is Israel and the Emirates. They want destabilization in the larger countries to undermine their ability to project power outside of their own countries. They don't want chaos, but they also don't want self-supported powers in the region to overshadow them.
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Fitch
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9:05a, 3/3/26
AG
Guy on the ground in Israel

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jagsdad
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In reply to bonfarr • 9:06a, 3/3/26
Holeee crap, that B 52 is a huge beast! Plus rotating cruise missiles as well as , I suppose a pay load of whatever bombs? Christ. You know I've tried keeping up with this on the news, but I keep coming back to this thread. Just more information, more up to date. You guys are doing yeoman work, I tell you!
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bonfarr
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9:06a, 3/3/26
AG
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G Martin 87
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In reply to jamey • 9:08a, 3/3/26
AG
jamey said:
YouBet said:
jamey said:
ttu_85 said:
jamey said:
OldArmy71 said:
I cannot conceive of the resources Iran must have used to build so many missiles and drones. It really is staggering.


The drones are like $20K, really cheap. A PAC3 missile is in the millions

Yep bad math. very bad math. We need some new math- or to be more accurate bring back good math. Time to put American innovation to the test. Hunter killer drones, giant tracked multi barreled shot gunesk weapons for low flying drone swarms, Jammers, EMP, microwav emitters. Get creative America. Call the sci-fi writers and get ideas.

What a fun job that would be. The hard part would be getting the cheap components in mass we no longer build and putting together the fabrication we no longer have.



We've been watching the drone war in Ukraine developing for years. Id hope we're ahead of the curve but it doesnt seem like it


Makes sense though. Ongoing action in a theater of war requires you to adapt and improve on the fly, constantly. Good thing here is that we can leapfrog the tech several generations at once.


Its a very slow process though thats encumbered by government oversight requirements.

Perhaps someone like Anduril who bypasses much of the process by developing weapons on their own dime has a foot in the door
The news cycle is so fast I'm not surprised if this has been overlooked, but our new LUCAS drone system, which made its debut on Saturday, is literally a reengineered copy of Iran's Shahed drone that uses mesh networks with Starshield so that all of the LUCAS drones can communicate with each other on targeting and surveillance. The original Shahed drone is basically the equivalent of a German V1; it follows GPS coordinates to the target, and that's it. Our version is a smart weapon system that is cheaper to produce and more effective in every way. So yes, we have already leapfrogged drone tech and we're ahead of the curve right now.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to Fitch • 9:09a, 3/3/26
AG
Israel intelligence is on point with knowing the location of EVERY person that matters politically in Iran every second of a day. Impressive!
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nortex97
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9:09a, 3/3/26
AG


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The Fall Guy
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9:10a, 3/3/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/airstrikes-hit-mehrabad-airport-in-tehran-iranian-reports/

Israel hit the Mehrabad airport in Tehran
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sts7049
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In reply to benchmark • 9:12a, 3/3/26
AG
benchmark said:
Opening Hormuz is important to everyone ... but particularly to China. About 40% of China's total oil imports pass through Hormuz. But we're also waching a high stakes chess game. China calls "check" with their rare-earth policy ... the US calls "check" with a potentially new Venezuela/Iran policy.

this keeps coming up. hormuz is open, but shippers' insurance rates is another matter. depends on who is willing to take that kind of risk.
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halfastros81
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9:20a, 3/3/26
AG
This latest strike sends a very powerful message to the clerics and the IRGC imo. "Your'e done" is the message.
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BBRex
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:24a, 3/3/26
AG
nortex97 said:


Having a stronger alliance with the Gulf States and controlling Venezuelan oil output would be huge. Especially with a U.S. friendly regime in Iran.


(Side note: While a war on Reuters might not be a bad idea, I don't think that's what they meant. Hyphens join, so no space. Dashed divide, so add spaces around. Personal pet peeve I can't let slide.)
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jagsdad
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In reply to Sid Farkas • 9:30a, 3/3/26
Think my grandson is probably on one of those.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to jagsdad • 9:33a, 3/3/26
jagsdad said:
Think my grandson is probably on one of those.

Godspeed to him and his fellow servicemen
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Old May Banker
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In reply to jagsdad • 9:36a, 3/3/26
AG
Quote:
Think my grandson is probably on one of those.

May God bless him and keep him safe from harm.
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Gaeilge
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9:43a, 3/3/26
China is going to have to self-insure the oil going through the Hormuz, which I don't think will be an issue for them. But marine traffic through the Hormuz will slow dramatically more until the war risk coverage is extended back to the area.
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FrozenInYesterday
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9:44a, 3/3/26
Serious question. What is the negative side to flying C-130's/Bomber's over the country and randomly dropping crates of AK's and ammos indiscriminately across the nation in the hopes that some of them get into the hands of protestors that use them against IRGC. Have yet to understand why we don't do this. Would it encourage crime that could be seen as negative on the global stage? I honestly think this may be the most helpful thing we could do right now to help push our intended goals.
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The Fall Guy
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9:45a, 3/3/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/turkey-says-making-intense-efforts-to-end-mideast-war/

Screw Turkey. Plus China is now chiming in to stop the war
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MagnumLoad
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In reply to FrozenInYesterday • 9:46a, 3/3/26
FrozenInYesterday said:
Serious question. What is the negative side to flying C-130's/Bomber's over the country and randomly dropping crates of AK's and ammos indiscriminately across the nation in the hopes that some of them get into the hands of protestors that use them against IRGC. Have yet to understand why we don't do this. Would it encourage crime that could be seen as negative on the global stage? I honestly think this may be the most helpful thing we could do right now to help push our intended goals.

Agree, but it can't be randomly. Must be planned.
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agsalaska
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In reply to halfastros81 • 9:46a, 3/3/26
AG
halfastros81 said:
This latest strike sends a very powerful message to the clerics and the IRGC imo. "Your'e done" is the message.

Yea I don't know how they can function at all now. They can't even move without getting attacked. And they get attacked when standing still.

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deddog
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In reply to jamey • 9:47a, 3/3/26
AG
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
Not for taking out ballistic missiles but for drone defense it matters.


The APKWS does not appear to be for drone defense. Its just a cheap missile used against lightly armored targets


No here is a Houthi drone shot down with one of these missiles.



https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rockets-now-primary-anti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east



So they took an air to surface use missile and are trying to use it against drones with multiple and scores of hits. Sounds very beta


They took an unguided rocket. And added guidance to it. It's an innovative solution.
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G Martin 87
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In reply to FrozenInYesterday • 9:50a, 3/3/26
AG
FrozenInYesterday said:
Serious question. What is the negative side to flying C-130's/Bomber's over the country and randomly dropping crates of AK's and ammos indiscriminately across the nation in the hopes that some of them get into the hands of protestors that use them against IRGC. Have yet to understand why we don't do this. Would it encourage crime that could be seen as negative on the global stage? I honestly think this may be the most helpful thing we could do right now to help push our intended goals.
Well, a possible negative is having the IRGC militias picking them up and using them on the protesters. Hoping the guns get into the right hands is a pretty terrible idea.
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Sundance86
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 9:52a, 3/3/26
With all the planning that has gone into this, one would assume the agents would have pre positioned caches of these in Iran in advance with plans of who to distribute to
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FrozenInYesterday
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In reply to G Martin 87 • 9:56a, 3/3/26
The IRGC already have guns so it's not like giving them more AK's will move the needle in their favor in my opinion. Drop them randomly in cities and across the desert. if we drop 10,000 guns at random and 5% - 10% get into the hands of people that want to use them against the regime I would imagine it as a net positive. The only negative I see is the IRGC deciding to kill site unseen any citizen that they think may grab one and the U.S. being blamed for their citizens being indiscriminately killed
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92AG10
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In reply to deddog • 9:56a, 3/3/26
AG
deddog said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
Not for taking out ballistic missiles but for drone defense it matters.


The APKWS does not appear to be for drone defense. Its just a cheap missile used against lightly armored targets


No here is a Houthi drone shot down with one of these missiles.



https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rockets-now-primary-anti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east



So they took an air to surface use missile and are trying to use it against drones with multiple and scores of hits. Sounds very beta


They took an unguided rocket. And added guidance to it. It's an innovative solution.


APKWS isn't new technology.
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jamey
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In reply to 92AG10 • 10:03a, 3/3/26
AG
92AG10 said:
deddog said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
Not for taking out ballistic missiles but for drone defense it matters.


The APKWS does not appear to be for drone defense. Its just a cheap missile used against lightly armored targets


No here is a Houthi drone shot down with one of these missiles.



https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rockets-now-primary-anti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east



So they took an air to surface use missile and are trying to use it against drones with multiple and scores of hits. Sounds very beta


They took an unguided rocket. And added guidance to it. It's an innovative solution.


APKWS isn't new technology.


Yeah, it does not appear new, other than its being used air to air instead of air to surface.

I would think the requirement to have a plane in the area is limiting, unlike surface to air methods that are always on guard duty
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deddog
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In reply to 92AG10 • 10:04a, 3/3/26
AG
92AG10 said:
deddog said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
jamey said:
bonfarr said:
Not for taking out ballistic missiles but for drone defense it matters.


The APKWS does not appear to be for drone defense. Its just a cheap missile used against lightly armored targets


No here is a Houthi drone shot down with one of these missiles.



https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rockets-now-primary-anti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east



So they took an air to surface use missile and are trying to use it against drones with multiple and scores of hits. Sounds very beta


They took an unguided rocket. And added guidance to it. It's an innovative solution.


APKWS isn't new technology.

Using them to kill drones, is pretty new, isn't it? But yes, hydra rockets have been along for a very long time. And the guided version, (mostly for ground targets) has been around too.

There's a video of an israeli F-16 taking out a Shahed drone, , using what i think was APKWS. Anyone know what i'm talking about?

[EDIT: You are correct, Wiki says it was tested against drones before COVID]. Damn, time flies.
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SirBichenDots
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 10:06a, 3/3/26
The Fall Guy said:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/turkey-says-making-intense-efforts-to-end-mideast-war/

Screw Turkey. Plus China is now chiming in to stop the war


Excellent take. Screw China too. Let the straight of Hormuz stay closed and hurt China. They decide to arm Iran right before the fight with hypersonic missiles. No oil for you China.
I wish a buck was still silver, it was back, when the country was strong.
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