Kozmozag said:

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There are 90 million Iranians. Probably 20 million will never give up their identity. Even if we are able to overthrow the current government. The new regime will be under immediate attack by the believers. Trump needs to do maximum damage to the mullahs and goverments military. Then call it a win....victory and walk away.

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Well to do that would be arm enough people to give the remains of that gov hell on earth. Doing a walkaway is dumb when that gov would just reconstitute itself in the absence of unarmed opposition.

Hard to reform your gov and terrorize your neighbors when you have to fight an internal insurgency.

If this fails to come to fruition and the people of Iran fail to rise up to make a change, Trump can and will claim it was more difficult than expected. Just like his claim he'd end the Ukrainian war. Up until that point, we'll degrade the regime and proxies as much as possible to set them back years .

MaxPower said:

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Kozmozag said:

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There are 90 million Iranians. Probably 20 million will never give up their identity. Even if we are able to overthrow the current government. The new regime will be under immediate attack by the believers. Trump needs to do maximum damage to the mullahs and goverments military. Then call it a win....victory and walk away.

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Yup. We are better off just coming in every 5 years and whipping the floor with their military than trying to put boots on the ground. Do that as many times as you have to.

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A point some people are missing is that there are 2 generations of Iranians who don't know any different. Those are also the generations of most fighting men.

Really curious who these new people are. This suggests a group of people beyond the IRGC and the mullahs. Who would that be?

YouBet said:

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Really curious who these new people are. This suggests a group of people beyond the IRGC and the mullahs. Who would that be?

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Militias in Iraq?

I really have no idea, but would speculate it's more regular army/IRGC units/leadership vs. just 'civilian' and senior guys/ballistic missile/drone stuff. I saw some pictures of himars firing from Bahrain even this am.

The Iranians have for decades used a smallish fleet of airliners to transport rocket and bomb stuff to Hezbollah in Lebanon (and also to pick up/drop off stuff from China/Venezuela etc 'Mahan Air', normally with A340's). I think the Israeli's are done allowing that.

The IDF now says it struck Mehrabad airport.

The Israeli military says its Air Force destroyed 16 aircraft belonging to the Quds Force unit that were transporting military equipment to Hezbollah https://t.co/mNh0hQLQ9G

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) March 7, 2026

Mahan operated that 747 that was blown up by the Israeli's, but I think this sanctioned 'airline' moved much of their gear to Afghanistan when this kicked off.

Mahan Air of Iran has moved some of their fleet to Herat Airport of Herat, Afghanistan! pic.twitter.com/zoRtATpdHR

— Strat Insights (@PolIntelNinja) March 4, 2026

YouBet said:

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Hmm, I don't think that will save that fleet. I doubt we have qualms about pinpointing those planes in Afghanistan.

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This. And even if we don't hit them on the ground, they've got to go airborne and leave Afghani airspace eventually.

USA made Merops anti-drone systems being sent to Middle East


https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2026/03/07/us_to_send_anti-drone_system_to_the_mideast_after_successful_use_in_ukraine_1169134.html

rgag12 said:

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deddog said:

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Admiral Nelson said:

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docb said:

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I'm mainly just comparing how hard it was for Israel to finally clear out Gaza and that is a small piece of land.

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The populace in Gaza supported Hamas. I have no idea why, but they did and still do. The populace in Iran is fed up with this regime. Completely different situation.

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Because they are Palestinian. They don't like anybody or anything. Seriously. They've been kicked out whereever they've gone.

Iran is far more modern, and there is a significant part of the populace that doesn't want it to be a theocratic state.

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There is a massive gulf between wanting something and doing something.

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No doubt. Unless we arm them, I'm skeptical anything will happen. The Islamists control all life in Iran. They have a lot to lose. And will fight to hold on.

Good for us. Stupid by them.

GAC06 said:

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I wonder if their president is trying to save himself. Make overtures about stopping attacks hoping that makes him useful

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Think he has proven he's not useful since they didn't stop, so he can go too. If he was smart, he'd flee.

NEXT!

GAC06 said:

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I wonder if their president is trying to save himself. Make overtures about stopping attacks hoping that makes him useful

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We need someone left to sign the surrender no? I don't think the fanatics care about a "president' though

If the Kurds can attack from the north, it could draw out iranian forces so we can smoke 'em. Maybe?
'

Test

I feel fairly confident this isn't the first time Mosad has planned out what a leadership change in Iran might look like. I also suspect they already know some people and groups they could lean on for a transition.

The complete collapse and capitulation of the current regime must happen first. There is likely only one good shot at this. Keep hitting them hard while there is little pushback in the world.

MagnumLoad said:

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If the Kurds can attack from the north, it could draw out iranian forces so we can smoke 'em. Maybe?
'

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You know what would smoke em out?
Marines landing somewhere in Iran.

The King of Jordan did some flying in cobra helicopters

deddog said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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If the Kurds can attack from the north, it could draw out iranian forces so we can smoke 'em. Maybe?
'

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You know what would smoke em out?
Marines landing somewhere in Iran.

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About as likely as aliens landing

GAC06 said:

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The King of Jordan did some flying in cobra helicopters

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Yep, I looked it up after I posted and it says Cobra's. I could have sworn that I saw 60 minutes about him many years ago and he was flying F-16's. Maybe that was a different guy over there.

Ah, it was his dad King Hussien that flew fixed wing. Not sure why F-16's popped into my head.

When the Jordanian F-16 pilot was burned to death by ISIS, Abdullah did a kind of publicity op in a C-130, perhaps that's it

Kozmozag said:

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There are 90 million Iranians. Probably 20 million will never give up their identity. Even if we are able to overthrow the current government. The new regime will be under immediate attack by the believers. Trump needs to do maximum damage to the mullahs and goverments military. Then call it a win....victory and walk away.

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Meh Iran is different. Just because there will be true believers, doesn't mean those true believers are willing to die for it. Majority will probably welcome a better life rather than fighting

And what is stopping those true believers right now from killing the people that want change? I do not here or see anything about the regular population turning on their neighbors

JB!98 said:

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The head of Israel’s Air Force is actually flying bombing missions in Iran. https://t.co/eNU38Ohk7d

— Jonathan Schanzer (@JSchanzer) March 7, 2026

I believe some of the leaders of ME were former fighter pilots. I know the Jordanian President was. Pretty cool leading from the front here.

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Besides leading from the front as a current desk jockey, it's probably helpful in rotation, with an OP Tempo as intense as this has been.

Someone said that Iran is about the same size as Europe. Don't believe we are going landbased troops into that type of situation. IRAQ II so Trump will not be that stupid.

Buglerank62 said:

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Someone said that Iran is about the same size as Europe. Don't believe we are going landbased troops into that type of situation. IRAQ II so Trump will not be that stupid.

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I agree that's a fools errand, but strategically bombing them and killing anyone to do with the regime will cause a ton of "save my ass-isms" of the younger and not "fully in" caliphatisits