Queso1 said:

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Whatever it is, it will be lauded here as a most triumphant victory.

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Is it ok with you if it is and who will you listen to saying it is and trust it?

ShaggySLC said:

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Queso1 said:

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Whatever it is, it will be lauded here as a most triumphant victory.

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Is it ok with you if it is and who will you listen to saying it is and trust it?

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Well obviously Trump's posts. They have been extremely reliable from Midnight Hammer to Epic Furry to our "Freedom" blockade. If the commander in chief isn't a reliable source then who could be.

You seem to prefer the spox for the IRGC as your most reliable news source, so there's that.

more countries caving to allow russian oil and products

And here are the consequences of #US waiver on #russia oil sanctions. #UK is following suit by allowing import of diesel and jet fuel produced from 🇷🇺 oil in third countries. As well as direct import of liquified gas. pic.twitter.com/XIxqweCfch

— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 20, 2026

more threats by IRGC

🚨 IRAN THREATENS TO EXPAND WAR BEYOND THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is now warning that if the U.S. and Israel resume attacks on Iran, the war will “spread far beyond the region.”

In a statement published by Sepah News, the IRGC said:
“If the aggression against… pic.twitter.com/GzibNT530o

— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) May 20, 2026

the SoH needs to be open yesterday

Kpler Hormuz scenarios. Shipping recovery will lag any ceasefire. pic.twitter.com/in1fEw9SlA

— Ayuso (@AyusoValue) May 20, 2026

The ****ers sure do make a lot of noise.

so far, Trump's candidates have dominated the primaries.

looks like no political fall out to date.

I'm not sure I care about this. I don't really consider the UK an ally anymore so if they get fuel from Russia it's not really that big of a deal. That country is finished anyway.

yeah, i just find it interesting that these sanctions and rules and moral outrage about where the oil comes from dissappear really quickly once desperation sets in

sts7049 said:

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more countries caving to allow russian oil and products

And here are the consequences of #US waiver on #russia oil sanctions. #UK is following suit by allowing import of diesel and jet fuel produced from 🇷🇺 oil in third countries. As well as direct import of liquified gas. pic.twitter.com/XIxqweCfch

— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) May 20, 2026

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I guess principles only carry you so far...

Its all a game anyway. India and China have been buying cheap Russian oil. That alone nullified the effect of the sanctions. Now India and China will have to pay market price. Good!

sts7049 said:

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yeah, i just find it interesting that these sanctions and rules and moral outrage about where the oil comes from dissappear really quickly once desperation sets in

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Whilst you COMPLETELY ignoring the Iranian situation has impacted Russia NEGATIVELY to the extent they are being slightly more reasonable in discussing ending the Ukraine conflict. Putin AND one of his high level guys reached out to work on an end.

But I know that's not the message out of Iran so perhaps you missed it.

sts7049 said:

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yeah, i just find it interesting that these sanctions and rules and moral outrage about where the oil comes from dissappear really quickly once desperation sets in

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Certainly. See Germany early on with Ukraine. After Europe voted to ban Russian energy, Germany simply rerouted purchase of the same energy from Russia through an alternate satellite country of Russia's. It was an open end around in full defiance of Europe's virtue signaling vote.

NOW - Trump says Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do. He's a great guy," adding, "I'm right now, at 99% in Israel. I could run for Prime Minister. So, maybe after I do this I'll go to Israel run for Prime Minister." pic.twitter.com/Pi1eFBufJL

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) May 20, 2026

You can almost hear the Hamas Fanboys stroking out over this!

Professional troller. Broke the mold on that.

flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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yeah, i just find it interesting that these sanctions and rules and moral outrage about where the oil comes from dissappear really quickly once desperation sets in

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Whilst you COMPLETELY ignoring the Iranian situation has impacted Russia NEGATIVELY to the extent they are being slightly more reasonable in discussing ending the Ukraine conflict. Putin AND one of his high level guys reached out to work on an end.

But I know that's not the message out of Iran so perhaps you missed it.

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wait, so you cry and call me an IRGC defender (anyone who doesn't suckle on Trump is that to you) but you actually believe Putin? what does slightly more reasonable even mean?

hilarious

sts7049 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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yeah, i just find it interesting that these sanctions and rules and moral outrage about where the oil comes from dissappear really quickly once desperation sets in

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Whilst you COMPLETELY ignoring the Iranian situation has impacted Russia NEGATIVELY to the extent they are being slightly more reasonable in discussing ending the Ukraine conflict. Putin AND one of his high level guys reached out to work on an end.

But I know that's not the message out of Iran so perhaps you missed it.

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wait, so you cry and call me an IRGC defender (anyone who doesn't suckle on Trump is that to you) but you actually believe Putin? what does slightly more reasonable even mean?

hilarious

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benchmark said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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I wonder what Trump's next move will be. Probably we will know by Monday.

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Short of crowning Iran the Supreme Monarch of Hormuz ... what options does Trump have not listed below?

• Maintain both the blockade and the quasi-ceasefire.
• Maintain the blockade and start Epic Fury 2.0

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You posted that 10 days ago, and you were right. Option 1 is still in effect.

Perhaps China is using its leverage r n over Iran (in return for Trump walking back our previous guarantees of security to Taiwan) to try and get the Mullah/IRGC regime to accept a JCPOA 2.0 type of agreement.

Trump made no concessions to China regarding Taiwan over Iran. Rubio comments confirmed this as have others.

Any suggestion to the contrary seems to be based on either biased reporting or posters inserting their own bias.

There will be no deal that resembles the JCPOA as Trump has been consistent and firm regarding enrichment and pursuit of nuclear ambitions.

Not at all. I just pay attention to things that have been widely reported and from direct comments by those who were in the room.

I don't take BlueSky or Reddit or Maddow as gospel.

HTH.

sts7049 said:

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I don't follow any of those. find a new narrative

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then where do you get your misinformation? Is it just imagined by you?

Trumps gonna cave

🚨Trump told Netanyahu that the mediators were working on a "letter of intent" that both the U.S. and Iran would sign to formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations on issues like Iran's nuclear program and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. source said https://t.co/9o80643lub

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 20, 2026

The goal of the new effort is to get more tangible commitments from the Iranians over steps regarding their nuclear program, and more specifics from the U.S. as to how frozen Iranian funds will be gradually released, an Arab official said https://t.co/9o80643lub

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 20, 2026

Exactly how many of these unsourced articles turn out to be true?

Time to finish this.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/new-iran-framework-sparks-concern-from-netanyahu-in-tense-call-with-trump-report/

Quote:

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New Iran framework sparks concern from Netanyahu in tense call with Trump

By NAVA FREIBERG

20 May 2026, 9:16 pm

US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a tense phone call last night about new mediation efforts by several Arab and Muslim states to reach a deal between the US and Iran, the Axios news site reports, citing an American source and two Israeli sources familiar with the call.

The emerging proposal reportedly drafted by Qatar and Pakistan with input from regional mediators Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt would see Washington and Tehran sign a "letter of intent" that would officially end the war and open 30 days of negotiations on issues including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting Iran's nuclear program, a US source involved in the phone call tells the news outlet.

The two leaders disagreed on the path forward during the call, as Netanyahu was highly skeptical of the framework, believing the US should continue applying military pressure on Iran to further weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure, two Israeli sources tell Axios.

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Interesting, if true.

If the replacement mullah/IRGC regime has any sense, they'll make a deal. Which means they probably won't.

That would be a TACO and win for Iran.

If you attacked Iran to remove their nuclear capability and currently have them bottled up with a blockade and seizure of their bank accounts, why would you agree to release the blockade and release some money just so you can keep talking about that nuclear capability that you've been talking about forever that they've consistently rejected forever?

You would do it if you felt a greater need to step off the gas militarily to bring down oil/gas prices and interest rates which are jeopardizing your party's chances in the upcoming midterms.

If you do that, it's a solid L in the W/L column. No other way to spin it, although I'm sure some will try.

I hope Trump finds his backbone here and holds firm to continue squeezing or hammering them until he accomplishes the nuclear weapons objective he outlined from the beginning. He started this war with clear objectives. He needs to finish it and accomplish them.

YouBet said:

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I'm not sure I care about this. I don't really consider the UK an ally anymore so if they get fuel from Russia it's not really that big of a deal. That country is finished anyway.

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Remember...NATO is there so that Russia doesn't attack that part of the world...

I'm a firm proponent of NATO.

But, If the countries that we're supposed to be protecting from Russia want to cozy up to Russia, I'm beginning to think that offloading a lot of the heavy lifting to those countries is a good idea. We can be their 6th Manu Ginobli...Bad ass and solves lots of problems when brought in, but not the front line defense...

flown-the-coop said:

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sts7049 said:

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I don't follow any of those. find a new narrative

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then where do you get your misinformation? Is it just imagined by you?

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i don't even know what information you are complaining about anymore, because you just rant about everything!

long tweet, but well worth the read. in summary, IRGC does not want peace, they want tension and chaos to survive.

translation added:

Quote:

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What Did We Learn from the 2019 Oil Tanker Explosions in the Sea of Oman?

Anas Al-Haji

At the beginning of the summer of 2019, specifically on June 12, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Tehran. The visit was historic on several levels:

It was the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to the Iranian regime since the 1979 revolution.

It carried a personal message from U.S. President Donald Trump to the then Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei.

It came after Trump canceled the nuclear agreement signed by President Obama with the Iranian regime, amid escalating risks.

The goal was to play the role of mediator for de-escalation between the two sides.

Abe met with President Hassan Rouhani on June 12, and the next day, June 13, he met with Supreme Leader Khamenei. During this meeting, events occurred that may have changed the course of historyand if they truly did change the course of history, we wouldn't have seen the war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz that happened in the last five weeks.

During the meeting with the Supreme Leader, two oil tankers came under attack in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. One was owned by a Japanese company, and the other was headed to Japan:

Kokuka Courageous (methanol tanker)

Front Altair (naphtha tanker)

As a result, "peace" efforts failed, and Abe left empty-handed. Later, Abe was assassinated in July 2022 while delivering a speech as part of an election campaign, for personal motives with no connection to Iran.

Four weeks before Abe's visit to Tehran, four oil tankers were blown up in the Sea of Oman near Fujairah, following announcements of attempts to de-escalate the situation between the United States and Iran, and the potential for Abe's visit to Iran. This was done by attaching limpet mines to the ships' hulls by divers who arrived on speedboats, creating holes in the submerged lower parts of these vessels. These tankers were:

Marzouqa (Saudi oil tanker)

Amjad (Saudi oil tanker)

Andrea Victory (Norwegian oil tanker)

Aegean Michiel (Emirati fuel supply ship)

The above was a long introduction to this news: Iran's backtracking on opening the Strait of Hormuz, and firing on two Indian oil tankers, one of which was a giant oil tanker carrying two million barrels. Iran's Foreign Minister had previously announced that the strait was open to all ships during the truce and negotiations with the United States. But suddenly, everything changed under the pretext that the United States had not lifted the ban on Iranian ports, leading to the announcement of closing the straits and striking the two Indian tankers.

In 2019, I commented on these events and pointed to the existence of a powerful faction within the "Revolutionary Guard" that actually benefits from international/U.S. sanctions and loses from any real move toward peace or de-escalation. This faction's interest lies in maintaining the status quo of tension and isolation, as it gives them political, economic, and financial control that cannot be achieved if an agreement is reached. The financial interests of this faction and its individuals are in the billions, which is why it fights any attempt at de-escalation and rapprochementnot only with the United States, but also with Gulf countries.

What we're witnessing todaybacktracking on opening the strait and firing on the Indian tankersis a repeat of what happened in 2019. The difference between the current situation and 2019 is the killing of the first and second lines of Iranian leadership, including moderates and negotiators. This has tipped the scales in favor of the team that carried out the 2019 bombings, which is actively working to sabotage the current negotiations between Iran and the United States, and any rapprochement with any Gulf state.

And the question here: A huge number of leaders and individuals have been eliminated, but why hasn't this extremist "corrupt" faction been eliminated? Is there someone who sees in the survival of these elements a guarantee for continuing the situation that serves their interests, preferring a corrupt and isolated regime over one that could become more stable and open?

This isn't a "conspiracy theory"; it's an analysis of the real interests that govern politics in the region. Peace doesn't serve everyone, and waror at least constant tensionserves some Iranian factions, and other countries.

The Negotiation Problem
The existence of this faction that resorts to blowing up ships if things don't go the way it wants makes it clear that the Americans are negotiating with individuals or parts of the regime that cannot control the "rebel" factionand therefore, the fate of these negotiations is failure unless this faction is eliminated or "bribed" in some way.

The problem is that the effect of this "bribe" is temporary, and this faction will resort to blackmailing the other parties by resorting to violence. In short, Trump's team is negotiating with an Iranian team that doesn't fully control the Iranian situation, at a time when Israeli and American interests don't align, which strengthens this "rebel" faction. From this perspective, it's clear that the issue of closing Hormuz will drag on, and even if the strait is opened, the chance of it being closed repeatedly in the future by this faction will recur, leading to increased volatility in energy markets on one hand, and a constant rise in shipping and insurance costs for all exports and imports of Gulf countries, raising costs and making some Gulf products less competitive.

The Role of the Shale Revolution
What makes things more complicated is that this faction's moves benefit the United States and Israel more than Iran itself or any other countries, and what makes the United States less interested in solving regional problemsor even reaching an agreement in Pakistanis the shale revolution, and now the deepwater revolution in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Trump administration's conviction in controlling Venezuela's reserves.

In short, these factors from the American side make solving the Hormuz problem seem like a service the Trump administration provides to its allies, not at the core of U.S. interests.

In short, the existence of an Iranian faction that benefits from conflict and loses in case of peace, combined with the American shale revolution and the Trump administration's conviction in controlling Venezuelan oil, are factors that make the chance of providing a complete and comprehensive solution to the Hormuz crisis hard to achieve. The result is ongoing volatility, constant opening and closing, and rising costs for Gulf products, reducing their competitiveness in Asia.

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🔴ماذا تعلمنا من تفجير حاملات النفط في بحر عمان في 2019؟🔴

أنس الحجي

في بداية صيف 2019، وتحديداً يوم الـ12 يونيو (حزيران)، وصل شينزو آبي، رئيس الوزراء الياباني السابق إلى طهران. كانت الزيارة تاريخية على مستويات عدة:

كانت الزيارة الأولى لرئيس وزراء ياباني للنظام الإيراني منذ…

— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) May 21, 2026

Ag with kids said:

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YouBet said:

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I'm not sure I care about this. I don't really consider the UK an ally anymore so if they get fuel from Russia it's not really that big of a deal. That country is finished anyway.

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Remember...NATO is there so that Russia doesn't attack that part of the world...

I'm a firm proponent of NATO.

But, If the countries that we're supposed to be protecting from Russia want to cozy up to Russia, I'm beginning to think that offloading a lot of the heavy lifting to those countries is a good idea. We can be their 6th Manu Ginobli...Bad ass and solves lots of problems when brought in, but not the front line defense...

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Right and when Europe is in bed with Russia to get energy then I see no need for NATO. And it sounds like Trump is headed there with his announcement yesterday that he's going to dial back resources for any NATO engagement that might happen.

I just go back to the point that Europe has 4x the population and 14x the GDP of Russia. They are more than capable of mitigating Russian aggression if/when they choose to be adults and care about their own sovereignty and safety. Hell, they have 100M more people than us.

That guy accidentally arrives at some plausible conclusions but has some incredibly poor takes at the start.

Any idea that there were any sort of reasonable leaders in prior and current Islamic regime is laughable, farcical (no pun intended). You do not rise to leadership in any of the controlling orgs in Iran by being peaceful, reasonable particular in relations to Big Satan.

However, he is correct in that our energy policies under Trump have allowed us to care much, much less about the SoH. In fact, there is going sentiment to just let it stay closed until it becomes irrelevant. Solves many long term issues in that area.

This guy is a dem, but it's hard to argue against it at this point. Trump shouldn't have started a war if he wasn't prepared to go all in.

Trump must deeply regret having followed Netanyahu's advice. He passed up a deal with Iran in February he could have claimed was "better than Obama's" and rolled the dice on a war that completely backfired, severely damaging his economy and political prospects at the same time.… https://t.co/pNbHX1XoAI

— Phil Gordon (@PhilGordonDC) May 21, 2026

rgag12 said:

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This guy is a dem, but it's hard to argue against it at this point. Trump shouldn't have started a war if he wasn't prepared to go all in.

Trump must deeply regret having followed Netanyahu's advice. He passed up a deal with Iran in February he could have claimed was "better than Obama's" and rolled the dice on a war that completely backfired, severely damaging his economy and political prospects at the same time.… https://t.co/pNbHX1XoAI

— Phil Gordon (@PhilGordonDC) May 21, 2026

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He's not just a Dem...

"Sydney Stein Jr. Scholar, Brookings. Payne Lecturer, Stanford. White House, NSC, and State in Biden, Obama and Clinton admins; author, Losing the Long Game."

I'm sure he's COMPLETELY impartial...