I honestly haven't seen anything yet that looks like a realistic projections of what matchups will be. IMO, the following are the priorities that will actually drive the decision (all of these are really just "money", but with more detail):
- Nationally recognized rivalries are top priorities.
- Strength of schedule (i.e. Alabama whining about getting Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU)
- Every team getting their top choice (as possible given the above) and preference on their second choice.
- Any other minor rivalries available
- Regionality
Given that, I think there are four phases that feed into the decision:
Phase I: Must HavesAlabama - Auburn Tennessee
Arkansas -
Auburn - Alabama Georgia
Florida - Georgia
Georgia - Florida Auburn
Kentucky -
LSU -
Oklahoma - tu
Ole Miss - Miss State
Miss State - Ole Miss
Mizzou -
South Carolina -
Tennessee - Alabama
tu - Texas A&M Oklahoma
Texas A&M - tu
Vanderbilt -
All of these games are nationally recognized and there is no way that ESPN is letting us make a schedule where they don't get to air these games annually. Honestly, this is pretty commonly accepted, so I would be surprised if there is much argument here.
Phase II: High PrioritiesAlabama - Auburn Tennessee
Arkansas - tu
Auburn - Alabama Georgia
Florida - Georgia LSU
Georgia - Florida Auburn South Carolina
Kentucky - Tennessee
LSU - Ole Miss Texas A&M Florida
Oklahoma - tu Mizzou
Ole Miss - Miss State LSU
Miss State - Ole Miss
Mizzou - Oklahoma
South Carolina - Georgia
Tennessee - Alabama Vanderbilt Kentucky
tu - Texas A&M Oklahoma Arkansas
Texas A&M - tu LSU
Vanderbilt - Tennessee
In this phase, everyone without at least one matchup in Phase I gets to pick their top choice, with the exception of LSU because of the hissy fit Alabama would throw. They do get what are probably their next three choices all at once, though. This is probably reasonable considering that Ole Miss and Texas A&M both likely consider them secondary rivals, and Florida doesn't get Tennesse because of Vandy and Kentucky, so LSU is probably their third choice.
At this stage, every team has at least one of their top three choices, and many have several. Four teams are already done: Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and tu. Other than LSU, and maybe Florida, I doubt there are any teams complaining so far, and their complaints probably aren't too loud at this point.
Phase III: Best rivalries and matchups left Alabama - Auburn Tennessee Miss State
Arkansas - tu Texas A&M Mizzou
Auburn - Alabama Georgia
Florida - Georgia LSU South Carolina
Georgia - Florida Auburn South Carolina
Kentucky - Tennessee Vanderbilt
LSU - Ole Miss Texas A&M Florida
Oklahoma - tu Mizzou
Ole Miss - Miss State LSU
Miss State - Ole Miss Alabama
Mizzou - Oklahoma Arkansas
South Carolina - Georgia Florida
Tennessee - Alabama Vanderbilt Kentucky
tu - Texas A&M Oklahoma Arkansas
Texas A&M - tu LSU Arkansas
Vanderbilt - Tennessee Kentucky
After this phase, all teams have at least two assigned rivals and some smaller rivalries have been preserved (e.g. Alabama/Miss State, the Tennessee/Kentucky/Vanderbilt love triangle, the Arkansas/Mizzou contrivalry that is becoming something more). South Carolina/Florida is somewhat of a match of convenience, but there is history, geography, and some schedule balance that probably makes everybody happy here.
There are probably more complaints about this that the previous steps, but I'd still be surprised if there are many fans of any of these schools that are too upset with what is listed so far.
Phase IV: Finishing touches Alabama - Auburn Tennessee Miss State
Arkansas - tu Texas A&M Mizzou
Auburn - Alabama Georgia Vanderbilt
Florida - Georgia LSU South Carolina
Georgia - Florida Auburn South Carolina
Kentucky - Tennessee Vanderbilt Mizzou
LSU - Ole Miss Texas A&M Florida
Oklahoma - tu Mizzou Ole Miss
Ole Miss - Miss State LSU Oklahoma
Miss State - Ole Miss Alabama South Carolina
Mizzou - Oklahoma Arkansas Kentucky
South Carolina - Georgia Florida Miss State
Tennessee - Alabama Vanderbilt Kentucky
tu - Texas A&M Oklahoma Arkansas
Texas A&M - tu LSU Arkansas
Vanderbilt - Tennessee Kentucky Auburn
Auburn/Vandy has a little bit of history here, but the other three matchups (Oklahoma/Ole Miss, South Carolina/Miss State, and Mizzou/Kentucky) are pretty contrived. That being said, there is at least competitive balance in the matchups selected and the geography is as good as I could make it. However, I wouldn't argue about switching up any of these groups.