Salary cap is estimated at 63.2 million next year. Luxury tax threshold is supposed to be 77 million. I'm not going to pretend to really understand the ins and outs of the NBA salary cap, but the Spurs spent 63 million this year (5 million over the cap at the time) and have 53 million committed for next year. That includes a team option on Austin Daye and a qualifying offer on Aron Baynes.
Assumptions: Timmy and Manu are not retiring.
This was the last year on Diaw, Bonner, and Mills contracts. The only player signed through 2015/2016 is Splitter (8.5mm that year).
Personally, I don't see much reason to change things up. Maybe shift roles around, but no major roster changes. We can see that they were able/ok with spending 5 million over the cap last season.
So, taken altogether, that means the Spurs have 10-15 million to resign Diaw and Mills and make whatever other moves are necessary.
1. Will anyone restructure to reduce their salary? Duncan and Manu seem to be the most likely candidates.
2. What will make Patty and Diaw stay? Diaw made 4.7 last year and Patty made just 1.1. Patty deserves a raise. I could see Diaw coming back for not much more than what he's making, but there is always the possibility that some dumb GM will offer him more money to go to a system where he won't be nearly as good.
3. Will they try to hang on to Bonner (probably for a price cut), go with the younger, currently cheaper Austin Daye as an undersized stretch 4, try to gut it out with Diaw as the only stretch 4 on the roster, or dig up someone new?
4. The inside looks a little better with Splitter having become a reliable rim protector (think MGasol rather than Ibaka), but with Duncan starting to look a little slow on rotations against playoff teams, can Baynes make a dramatic improvement to his defensive timing? Do we have anyone taller than Boris who could develop a legitimate post game? The Tiago Splitter shy hook does NOT count as a post move.
5. What weaknesses need to be shored up?
Depth chart:
1 - TP/Mills/Joseph. I'll take that lineup any day of the week and twice on Sundays in June. Does either Mills or Joseph become superfluous?
2 - Green/Manu/Belli. Belli needs to learn to play defense or the backup 2/3 spot is going to become a need position very quickly. There is the possibility of trying to slide one of Mills or Joseph over, but that leads to some pretty small lineups.
3 - Leonard. Other than Leonard being the STARter at this position, the backup threes are also the backup twos. Daye is technically a three, but I'd like to see another 6'7 or 6'8 defender to rotate in. Especially with less depth on defense in the post, it's becoming more important to cut off drivers before they get a head of steam up. We also saw how critical it is to keep Leonard out of foul trouble right now.
4 - Duncan/Diaw. It's kind of hard to decide who plays exactly where the way Pop fiddles with lineups, but this rotation is good for another year.
5 - Splitter/Baynes/Ayres. I'd be a lot more comfortable if Baynes showed better defensive instincts. He seems to have acceptable scoring ability close to the rim, so hopefully he'll figure some things out defensively this offseason.
The post situation is a patch work. An effective one, but a patchwork nonetheless that will get more patchy as Duncan and Diaw slow down. I like Splitter, but he's not the answer in terms of a stud post player. He's a great defender and glue guy, but not someone you can toss the ball to down low to stop the bleeding. He also can't stretch the defense and still gets overpowered at times by bigger guys with post moves. This is the first need, imo, and one that everyone is looking to fill. Tim Duncans don't grow on trees.
The second need is a backup 2/3. Ideally around 6'7 with good defense and a couple spots where he can hit a three. Anything more offensively is a luxury.
