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Big name free agent pitchers who have signed with Texas in the last decade:

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Colby Lewis
Rich Harden
Brandon McInjury
Vicente Padilla
Yu Darvish

The truth is... Texas has focused on development of SPs, as opposed to going out and getting them. Losing Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson were more about willingness to spend crazy money. We've gone there in these discussions.

Who did Texas miss out on?

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Oakland had the best rotation ERA in baseball before the trade. They just added Samardzija for not just this year but also next. Oh yeah, they also get Griffin and Parker back next year.

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Both of whom just had TJ surgery... like Martin Perez did... So, at a minimum, you can equate Perez' return to either one of them. For Parker... that was his 2nd TJ surgery.

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Issues with what, being 16 games over 0.500?

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Issues that Pujols (.270\19HRs) and Hamilton (.291\5HRs) are a shell of what they were. CJWilson showing a decline. All 3 will continue their decline... and they have tons of money tied up. We can talk about their endless budget, but they have shown they have very little return for those 3.

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Yeah that's a net of about 10-13 wins... over what we have right now -- which based on win % is a 70 win team. So you're not bumping up into 90 win "in the hunt" territory... You're bumping up into 80 win "0.500 ball" territory.

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You missed the baseline. If Holland and Fielder are league average in expectations, we are a .500 team... not a .500 team with them performing their best... or at what would be their average. Their Win designations are based on the delta between them as average replacement value versus actual replacement value.

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Nick Martinez has a 5+ ERA.

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Nick Martinez is a 23 yo who was expected to pitch in AA Frisco. He has 337 IP in the minors, and 600 is typical before a SP is ready. So, do I expect him to improve on the 5+ ERA? Yes.

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Nick Tepesch has as many horrible starts as good starts.

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And yet his 4.29 ERA is serviceable for a #4/5 SP. Again, he would likely have spent most of last season in Round Rock...

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At this point those two are absolute crapshoots for rotation production next year.

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And that is why I said we need 3 SPs.
Darvish and Holland + 3. We get a FA... Tepesch could be that 4th. 5th could be anyone off the heap, or worst case, we return Nick Martinez who will be a year better and hopefully in the 4.25-4.50 range. Throw in the possibilities\crapshoot of Luke Jackson, ChiChi Gonzalez, Robbie Ross... or someone we get in a trade... return Martin Perez.

Yes... lots of uncertainty. I've said that. But is that less certain than having Saunders and Hanson battling for #3, while we pencil in two guys who haven't started games in years as our #4 and #5 (Ross and Scheppers).

More or less certainty: Nick Martinez the 2014 22 yo AA pitcher or Nick Martinez the 2015 23 yo AAA pitcher, with MLB experience?!

Roy Oswalt? Hanson? Texas hasn't been without it's scrap heap SPs.

One point on Oak I forgot to mention. Their SP has been in the Top 4 in AL for the past 4+/- years. So, that shouldn't surprise anyone.

The first time Texas signed Colby Lewis out of free agency he hadn't pitched in the big leagues in 3 seasons. The second time Texas signed Colby Lewis out of free agency he hadn't pitched in a season and a half. Neither time was he considered a big time free agent signing.

Colby Lewis and Rich Harden were not big name free agent pitchers in any reality.

Brandon McCarthy was via trade, not free agency signing.

Yu Darvish was a sealed highest-bid, there was no free agency.


I'll give you Vicenta Padilla... if by big name free agent you mean a guy who was barely above replacement level the two years before coming to Texas.



Kevin Millwood is the only big name free agent pitcher Texas has landed in the last 10 years. Chan Ho Park is the only big name free agent pitcher Texas has landed in the last 15 years.

In that time there have been at least a dozen free agent pitchers who have turned down offers to come to Texas.

History is certainly not on your side if you think we're going to land not one but TWO big free agent pitchers this offseason.

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The truth is... Texas has focused on development of SPs, as opposed to going out and getting them

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The truth is Texas was forced to focus on development of SPs because time and time again they were turned down by free agent pitchers that didn't want to come pitch in the Texas bandbox/heat.

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Both of whom just had TJ surgery... like Martin Perez did... So, at a minimum, you can equate Perez' return to either one of them. For Parker... that was his 2nd TJ surgery.

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Ok, so scratch Griffin. Hell scratch Parker too... They have the best rotation ERA in the league and just added one of the best starters in the NL for this year and next. Their rotation was great and just got better. Our rotation is crap and is reliant on a couple of big time free agents coming here and panning out just to be good.

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Issues that Pujols (.270\19HRs) and Hamilton (.291\5HRs) are a shell of what they were. CJWilson showing a decline. All 3 will continue their decline... and they have tons of money tied up. We can talk about their endless budget, but they have shown they have very little return for those 3.

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They are a shell of what they were... yet they are 16 games over 0.500. That shell is still a heck of a lot better than What Texas currently has signed for Opening Day next year.

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You missed the baseline. If Holland and Fielder are league average in expectations, we are a .500 team... not a .500 team with them performing their best... or at what would be their average. Their Win designations are based on the delta between them as average replacement value versus actual replacement value.

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So if Holland and Fielder are league average we are 10 games better this year? I hate to break it to you, but while the guys playing in their positions certainly aren't good, they aren't 5 wins below replacement.

If you think a productive Holland and a productive Fielder are worth 20 games over what we're getting right now, you're bananas.

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Nick Martinez is a 23 yo who was expected to pitch in AA Frisco. He has 337 IP in the minors, and 600 is typical before a SP is ready. So, do I expect him to improve on the 5+ ERA? Yes.

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Great. So if 600 innings is typical before a SP is ready, he's not going to hit that until 2016.

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And yet his 4.29 ERA is serviceable for a #4/5 SP. Again, he would likely have spent most of last season in Round Rock...

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And Nick Tepesch as a #5 isn't the end of the world. The problem is right now Nick Tepesch would slot in as a #3 on the 2015 Rangers -- and that's assuming Derek Holland comes back fine from injury.

And don't get me wrong I like Derek Holland, but the guy has had all of one sub 3.50 ERA season. He's very valuable, but slotting him as a bonafide #2 starter at this point is being generous.



Right now Texas has 1 legitimate starter (thankfully an ace) and 1 legitimate power threat (who will be 36 next year).

They have a 1st baseman that had a power outage and will be coming off of neck surgery, a #3 starter who hasn't pitched since 2013, and a top prospect who has lost a year of maturing.

The above, plus whatever Texas manages to get in free agency (which won't be much -- only big contract possibly coming off the books is Harrison and that is still an unknown) will have to take a 70 win team to a 93 win team if it hopes to win the division.

That ain't happening in one year.

You'd be hard pressed to tell me an average innings eater SP doesn't get you 3 Wins over one of our rotation spots.

Mikolas: 2GS (12.46 ERA)
Mikolas: 3ER (5.1 IP), 9ER (3.1IP)

Baker : 3GS (5.94 ERA)

Scheppers: 4 GS (9.82 ERA)
Scheppers: 7ER (4IP), 6ER (2.1IP), 5ER (7.0 IP) and 2ER (5.0IP) is how his 4 GS went.

Saunders: 8 GS (6.13 ERA). He never got past 6.0 IP.
Saunders: 7ER (5IP), 6ER (4IP), 4ER (4.2 IP) 4 ER (3.2 IP).

That is just brutal. Would the Rangers have won any of those? Hard to say. But you are looking at 8 games with at least 5ER by a starting pitcher that went past 5IP only once.

If you get a replacement pitcher that keeps the ERA at 5IP... Consider someone as bad as Nick Tepesch with a 4.29 ERA.

Mikolas, Scheppers and Saunders alone account for 14 GS \ 66.2 IP \ 59 ER. About a 7.97 ERA and 4.2 IP/GS.

That is brutal to your bullpen and team morale.

If you replace those 14 GS with a Nick Tepesch (9GS \ 50.1 IP \ 24 ER ~ 5.2 IP/GS and about 2.67 Rs/GS

You are looking at going from your SP leaving:
After 4.2IP giving up 4.2 Rs
After 5.2IP giving up 2.7 Rs.
The net is... 1.5 less Runs over an additional IP.

A QS is defined as 6IP/3ERs.

Over the past 3 seasons (2011-2013) Holland is 92 GS \ 586.1 IP \ 259 ER.

Averages: 30.7 GS \ 195 IP \ 86.3 ERs for a 3.98 ERA. The net is leaving the game after an average of 6.2 IP giving up about 2.87 ERs.

So this is how you have the SP leaving the game:
4.2 IP / 4.2 ERs <- Saunders \ Scheppers \ Mikolas combined this season when they left the game
or
5.2 IP / 2.67 ERs <- Tepesch average this season when he leaves the game
or
6.2 IP / 2.87 ERs <- Holland average for past 3 years when he leaves the game

2 IPs/GS X 30 Gs = Lots of BP saved 60IP.

You don't think replacing the group of Saunders\Scheppers\Mikolas with a Tepesch'esque arm doesn't get you 3-4 wins this season?!

The thing Holland's 6.2 IP gets you is the ability to turn the game over for a W.

y'all type WAAAYYYY too much

That's because people from Houston aren't used to complete sentences.

As far as big name free agent pitchers go, I think Darvish and the overall franchise success of the past few years has helped remove the stigma that coming here is some sort of death wish on one's pitching career, and that stigma was a big reason guys didn't sign here. You don't hear that noise anymore. They haven't signed a big name pitcher other than Darvish recently because they haven't been willing to pay what the market requires to get one.

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That's because people from Houston aren't used to complete sentences.

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Well played

For Texas to sign a top SP... it will come down to Texas willingness to sign one of these guys to 5-6 years:

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Yovani Gallardo (28)
Jason Hammel (31)
Jon Lester (30) <- He'll stay in Boston
Max Scherzer(29)
James Shields(32)

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These guys to 3-4 years:

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Josh Beckett (34)
Aaron Harang (36) <- Do not want. NL guy.

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Over the next two months we'll know if the team is going to play for 2015, or 2016+. If they trade Rios, Soria and/or Beltre... 2015 will be crap. We don't have a legit OF, 3B or Closer behind them for 2015.

During the offseason, the Rangers should be able to evaluate where Fielder is. They will have a couple months of Holland back to find out if he can return to form. Harrison relief will be known. They will see how Gallo does in AAA.

The could decide Oakland and LAAA have one solid year left for 2015 and decide to focus beyond 2015. Or they could pony up.

They get $6M/yr for Fielder ('16-19). Harrison is owed $13.2M ('15-17; option '18). Beltre is $18M/'15 and $16M/'16.
That's $18.2M ('16) and $35M ('17 and '18).

If you go for Scherzer at 6yr/$150M ~$25M), you replace Beltre with Gallo.

Wtf was that?

A springer dinger I think

Pow

Just tuned in. Who is Irwin, and why is he pitching?

Claimed off waivers from the Pirates in May. Just another warm body at this point.

Phil Irwin won the "which lucky fan gets to start tonight?" drawing that they've had to resort to. He's their 12th starting pitcher this year. I think their season record is 16 or 17. Holland at some point will make it at least 13, and I'm sure we can count on several more than that.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 7/8/2014 8:34p).]

Nick Martinez pulled a chest muscle while taking batting practice in NY.

DL.

Just another warm body off the scrap heap.

If you are a minor leaguer hoping to make the majors... getting waived and picked up by the Rangers has been about as effective as any other method this season for the Rangers.

With Beltre's triple... if you'd have asked me if that was possible... I'd have put money against it.

Hits the top of the wall and comes back into play. A wall that angles, no less.

Yknow what? 3 runs in 4 innings.... We've done worse. Between that and Miles' first start, here's my strategy for the rangers next year: Yu, Holland, Perez when he's ready, random different call up that the opposing team has never seen before, random different call up that the opposing team has never seen before.

Go all in on bullpen in the offseason and i legitimately wonder if that couldn't make the playoffs. Only halfway joking.

But Perez won't be ready till July or August next year...that's being optimistic

Watching this roster churn makes me think the Rangers front office meetings resemble the scene near the beginning of Major League. "Half of these guys are past their prime, the other half never had a prime. This guy is dead! Well, cross him off then."

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But Perez won't be ready till July or August next year...that's being optimistic

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Perez will likely not contribute any meaningless at all in 2015.

He'll be a 2016 contributor, IMO.

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y'all type WAAAYYYY too much

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That's because people from Houston aren't used to complete sentences.

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Actually, he was referring to this thread being "***Rangers vs. Astros***" NOT "***Rangers fans crying cause half their team pulled their vaginas this year***"

[This message has been edited by Brennan Huff (edited 7/8/2014 9:39p).]

I typed this out, just before the pitch he hit... waiting to post it once he struck out.

The scouting report for Smolinski - "Just throw the ball near the plate."

Got the Hat Trick tonight swinging at breaking pitches that were headed out of the strike zone before they even broke and swinging at pitches that bounced before they got to the plate.

Elvis thinks he's Nelson Cruz.... i really hope we trade him

Been following Roman Mendez on the peripheral of other players, for a couple years.

Glad to see him making his debut.

It has been nice to have Elvis a solid SS. We've been spoiled.

But Elvis has really gotten sloppy and complacent.

If Profar is ready for 2015... even if he performs like Odor has this season... I wouldn't be sad if they shipped Elvis.

The Yankees should be in the market for a SS, if HanRam doesn't end up there he'll likely end up back in LAD.

$15M/yr for forever on Andrus. He could be a nice Plan B. Get a ready-made SP, plug in Profar.

[This message has been edited by DallasAg 94 (edited 7/8/2014 10:14p).]

Guys guys guys... all this building for 2016 will still equal a finish behind Captain Correa and the Astros.

Daddy Houston back on top

I love Rangers suffering. Nothing better.


[This message has been edited by Stros94 (edited 7/8/2014 10:33p).]

> > will have to take a 70 win team

I wouldn't bet on them winning 70.

Our rotation:

Yu Darvish - Ace
Tepesch - Our team #2. Started the season at AAA.
Colby Lewis - Returned to the mound April 14 after having hip replacement (0 GS in 2013).
Irwin - Picked up off waivers in May 28th ( 6 weeks ago tomorrow). (2nd career GS in MLB).
Mikolas - Traded to Texas on Dec 30, 2013 for Chris McGuiness. (0 Career GS in MLB).

We have 71 more games, which means we get about 14 GS per SP.

Projected thoughts:
Darvish: 7-3-4ND
Tepesch: 4-5-5ND
Lewis: 5-6-3ND
Irwin: 3-7-4ND
Mikolas: 2-10-2ND

Thats - 21-30-25
The BP will go 10-15
31-45 is what I project the rest of the way.

That's 69-97.

If Holland returns... he could replace either Irwin or Mikolas and get us over 70Ws.

It's going to be ours!

Which one of you is this?

These Astro fans are so cute. Playing for 4th place really draws them out on the threads. Houston bold.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 7/9/2014 7:56a).]