***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

266,551 Views | 3246 Replies | Last: 9 min ago by texasaggie2015
Wabs
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Any trade dealings with the Yankees, the Astros need to start with Jasson Dominguez. Then we can start talking.
EastCoastAgNc
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I remember the return seeming very large for mookie, but did any of those players pan out too contribute in a major way?
All I do is Nguyen
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So next season is going to suck isn't it? Unless we make some major moves I don't see how we can improve over last season
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Farmer1906
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EastCoastAgNc said:


I remember the return seeming very large for mookie, but did any of those players pan out too contribute in a major way?


They got Verdugo, Wong, & Jeter Downs. They may have gotten more from their trade with us 2 years ago - Vazquez / Abreu.

On paper they got a lot and shed serious salary (Price) but it ended up pretty not great. That's the risk you run trading for top prospects.

What is really ****ed up. The Sox were willing to give Mookie 300 M but they did it for Devers and found 600 M for Soto. What were they thinking?
texasaggie2015
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Still a lot of time left and a lot can happen between now and then, but I'm not feeling too confident.
CFTXAG10
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All I do is Nguyen said:

So next season is going to suck isn't it? Unless we make some major moves I don't see how we can improve over last season
We still get the benefit of a weak division, but if the org wants more than just making the playoffs they need to get off their a** and do something. I get you can't make moves just for the sake of saying you did something, but this team as currently constructed will run into the same pitfalls next season as they did in the last
Marvin
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EastCoastAgNc said:


I remember the return seeming very large for mookie, but did any of those players pan out too contribute in a major way?

I'm afraid Crane is going to let Tucker walk like all the other stars that have left, including Bregman, because he refuses to play the long contract game. I'm fine with that, but you can't just let the talent go for nothing. He's made a crap ton on money, but it seems he wants to maximize every residual dollar by placing bandaids on gaping wounds and telling the fans that the window is still open. It's not.

You are either the Dodgers or the Rays. Pick a lane, because the alternative is middling baseball that has us looking to football season before the ASB.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Wabs
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All I do is Nguyen said:

So next season is going to suck isn't it? Unless we make some major moves I don't see how we can improve over last season
Next season is probably going to "suck" if you're expecting to go further than we did last season. This is why I lean towards trading some of our assets that other teams value to bring in some young talent that is worth watching and getting excited about.

Let's say for some miraculous reason Breggy re-signs with us. If that is not accompanied by adding another OFer (Profar?) and adding at least one very good bullpen arm, then I just don't see us going any further than we did last year.
Marvin
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Wabs said:

This is why I lean towards trading some of our assets that other teams value to bring in some young talent that is worth watching and getting excited about.


Agreed. There are no guarantees, but there is zero value in 78 wins versus 64 wins unless you count the extra 700 fans in attendance.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Farmer1906
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Farmer1906
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All I do is Nguyen
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Soto couldn't hold a candle to this legend

No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
agproducer
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I think we should go soft rebuild if we don't get Bregman.

Pitching is pretty much there.

Then, trade Tuck and Framber for high-level prospects -- with one or two that are major league ready.

In the OF, sign one or two mid-priced FAs to short-term deals to one or two-year prove-it deals. Dylan Carlson, Jesse Winker and Austin Hays. I really wanted Tyler O'Neil, but he signed elsewhere.

At 3B, sign Jorge Polanco (hope for a bounce-back year), Josh Rojas, JD Davis or Gio Urshela to a short-term deal to split time with one of the young guys (Dezenzo). Or -- trade for Bohm.

These options bridge to Matthews in the OF or IF.

At 1B, use a rotation of Singleton, Yainer, Dezenzo and Caratini this year as a short-term solution.

This year, aim for the playoffs with what you have. If we are struggling, sell at deadline.

This to me sets us up for '26 -- especially if we trade for Bohm. Money comes off the books. Transition Bohm in 26 to 1B. Then, I say we go after Murakami.


tylhair
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All for a Tucker trade if it can be done in a way that makes us better in 2025 and sets us up for more financial flexibility moving forward.

Not sure if something like that would ever be offered.
Wabs
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This is kinda what I've been wanting to see. Tucker's value right now is very high. I think we should leverage that and get some young, controllable, MLB-ready talent. Framber not as much trade value, but I still would put him out there to see what we can get. To me, this is a "soft" rebuild". I'm ok with that.

To go hard rebuild, I know it blasphemous for most on here, but we'd need to also see what we could get for Yordan. I'm not necessarily ready to go that far right now, and I think there is near 0 chance that we'll go that way.
agproducer
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Wabs said:

This is kinda what I've been wanting to see. Tucker's value right now is very high. I think we should leverage that and get some young, controllable, MLB-ready talent. Framber not as much trade value, but I still would put him out there to see what we can get. To me, this is a "soft" rebuild". I'm ok with that.

To go hard rebuild, I know it blasphemous for most on here, but we'd need to also see what we could get for Yordan. I'm not necessarily ready to go that far right now, and I think there is near 0 chance that we'll go that way.
I think we have to figure out a way for this team to get younger, so we can continue to compete in the future.

And -- right now, we don't have the farm system to do that because we have traded off youth to get pieces for the major league club, and without the draft picks, we haven't been able to replenish quickly and keep that line moving.

That's why Tuck and Framber are valuable right now.

This is not a World Series club in 2025. No amount of moves, imo, will make it a WS club next year. We could and should be a playoff team if we stay pat, but that hoses us for 26 and beyond.



Farmer1906
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I am pretty much anti-trading away Framber and/or Tucker. To me, it signals that we are not trying to win a title in 2025. We only have so many years left of Yordan (4) and Altuve (?) before he declines. BUT if we can balance getting good players for multiple years of control along with FA spend then maybe it can make sense.

The Cubs were mentioned in the video as being interested in Tucker. They are motivated to sell Bellinger and Suzuki.

What about something like this?

Tucker for Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and a top 15 prospect. Baseball Trade Evals show it pretty much even. The difference in salary between Suzuki, Busch vs Tucker is only a few million.

  • Suzuki is a step down defensively and strikes out a little too much, but he's had a 118 wRC+ in 22, 128 in '23, and 138 in '24. That is pretty damn stellar. He's under control for '25 and '26 at $19 M per.

  • Michael Busch is our answer at 1B. Young lefty who had a 119 wRC+ in 2024 as a 2nd year player. He's not a free agent until 2030. He's a former 1st round pick and top 100 prospect in 2023.

  • Add another piece to the pile in the minors with a mid-level prospect.

If we were to take the hypothetical trade above, bring back Bregman (or go get Correa), and then maybe add one more option (someone who can play INF as insurance and maybe platoon at 1B) then I think we're still competing in 2025 at a high level while extending the window.
Mathguy64
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Isn't that partly punting the problem down the calendar for a year? You are swapping one year of Tucker for two years of Susuki. The other pieces help of course.
Farmer1906
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Mathguy64 said:

Isn't that partly punting the problem down the calendar for a year? You are swapping one year of Tucker for two years of Susuki. The other pieces help of course.
Kind of. But the more control you get the less impactful of a player you're getting. My idea would be to try and replace Tucker as much as possible with Suzuki while addressing a major need at 1B for the next 5 years. We have much for payroll flexibility in 26 and 27. This offseason we do not.
Wabs
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In your scenario, I would want the Cubs to take Pressly off our hands as well.
Mathguy64
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Let's all be honest. It's been an amazing run but we aren't LAD, NYY or NYM. Those clubs can just offer to pay whatever they want to whoever they want. Everyone else has a budget. Some clubs have bigger budgets than others but it's still a budget that constrains you and forces everyone to reset. The fact that we did this for 9 years out of 10 and 8 straight so far is a historic miracle.

I'm with Farmer. Keep Tucker and Framber and compete one more year with the best you have. The AL isn't deep and if you make the playoffs anything can happen. Winning and getting a bye just increase the chances of something happening, or more correctly minimizes the chances of something bad happening in a short series.
Beat40
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Honest question here: what is the last team to do a soft rebuild and it work out for a decent amount of time?
agproducer
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Honestly, I like that deal Farmer.

I wonder if getting Suzuki to the Astros could influence Murakami.
Farmer1906
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Beat40 said:

Honest question here: what is the last team to do a soft rebuild and it work out for a decent amount of time?
Yankees in 2016 come to mind. Made the CS in 2017. They traded away Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, & Carlos Beltran in 3 different trades.
tjack16
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I just have to be honest, I don't see what should stop us from extending Tucker and Valdez. Or at least one of them if not both

I understand not wanting to go with long-term deals for previous guys, but Tucker is a different circumstance… He is younger, more athletic, and plays a position of need where we don't really have anything coming up the pipeline to replace him unlike previous guys we let walk.

If He was 30, I would say no to the long-term deal but given that he is 27 would say that a 10-12 year deal would be less risky because that would take him into his 37 year-old season which at that point you'd be hoping he's a Brantley type of player or a DH

Also Framber won't be as expensive or requiring a long term deal.
EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16
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Beat40 said:

Honest question here: what is the last team to do a soft rebuild and it work out for a decent amount of time?


Red Sox did their soft rebuild after 2019 and made the ALCS in 2021
texasaggie2015
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There's concerns about Tucker and how he'll respond to a big contract. The team wasn't impressed with how he handled his rehab last year apparently
Ag_07
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I think it's twofold

A) The market is now is absolutely insane after Soto. These two pieces are MVP and CY worthy and they will have money thrown at them the Astros don't have so they're most likely gone anyways.

B) We have a lot of holes to fill and the pieces we bring in can help more than the two guys we have.
tjack16
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Ag_07 said:

I think it's twofold

A) The market is now is absolutely insane after Soto. These two pieces are MVP and CY worthy and they will have money thrown at them the Astros don't have so they're most likely gone anyways.

B) We have a lot of holes to fill and the pieces we bring in can help more than the two guys we have.


I guess what I'm saying is if we are not going to re-sign them, which I don't understand why you can't at least sign one of them. If it's a we know we're not going to have them past 2025 situation, then yeah I would trade them and get pieces back. Because if not, you then lose all their value as soon as the season ends.

Just thinking of all the guys you've let walk, Tucker is the one that I could realistically be OK with getting a long-term deal just because of his age, athleticism and relative health
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

...

Also Framber won't be as expensive or requiring a long term deal.
Look what Snell, Burns, & Fried get. He's going to want something close. It won't be cheap.
All I do is Nguyen
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texasaggie2015 said:

There's concerns about Tucker and how he'll respond to a big contract. The team wasn't impressed with how he handled his rehab last year apparently
I'm guessing he didn't dedicate himself to the rehab as he should have?

I have said for years across multiple sports that a lot of athletes as soon as they get the big payday have a big drop off in production. My theory is they don't feel the pressure to perform now that they have been paid.
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Ags #1
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Hasn't that always been a concern with Tucker? Once he gets his big deal he will mail it in?
Farmer1906
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Here is my flip side trade of Framber instead of Tucker.

Framber Valdez and a top 10-15 prospect for Tristion Casas. This assumes the Red Sox lose out on Burns, Fried, etc. We now have our answer at 1B for the next 4 seasons. This saves us 10-15 M in 2025 so we can now afford Bregman and stay under the tax with a Pressly move. Our lineup looks pretty damn filthy. For this to work, we need a combination of McCullers, Spaghetti, Garcia, and/or Javier to make a huge impact.
Farmer1906
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Farmer1906 said:

Here is my flip side trade of Framber instead of Tucker.

Framber Valdez and a top 10-15 prospect for Tristion Casas. This assumes the Red Sox lose out on Burns, Fried, etc. We now have our answer at 1B for the next 4 seasons. This saves us 10-15 M in 2025 so we can now afford Bregman and stay under the tax with a Pressly move. Our lineup looks pretty damn filthy. For this to work, we need a combination of McCullers, Spaghetti, Garcia, and/or Javier to make a huge impact.
Looks like some people had a similar idea of Framber to BOS.



 
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