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Stock Markets - Swing and Longer Term Trades

156,938 Views | 930 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by Bob Knights Paper Hands
RightWingConspirator
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AG
Swollen Thumb said:

Thanks. I'm looking at it.

So speaking of good twitter follows, etc,, I'd be interested to know if anyone subscribes to a particular service that they have found helpful as far as the type of trading discussed here. Seeking Alpha, Motely Fool etc all have premium subscriptions and I'm sure there are other lower profile services that might be great too. I generally peruse the free content from various sites, but would like to find one or two to subscribe to assuming the premium content has added value in the way of analysis and recs for mid/long-term opportunities. Any recommendations or feedback along these lines would be appreciated.

Would be great to use this thread to compare/contrast some of the ideas/analysis different posters are seeing from various services.


I pay for the Motley Fool Stock Advisor program. Runs me about $100/year. It's too early to tell whether it is worth the cost, but what it has done is given me some investment ideas I would not have known about left to my own devices. They seem to have pretty good "vision" as far as good long term holds as both brothers have soundly beaten the market over the years.
"But it is easier to purchase products that denote superiority than to be actually superior in economic achievement." - Thomas J. Stanley
Swollen Thumb
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AG
Thanks for the insight. $100/yr isn't bad at all. If you get a couple good ideas that's more than worth it. I'll check it out, but feel free to share any of the ideas you see!
Jet Black
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59 South said:

Same. But change 8 to 6 or even 3 that I considered at one point or another. Still have never owned.


What do you think of it at 10ish?
badharambe
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Hi! I'm interested in your reasoning behind TTD and if you're concerned about the slow down in ad tech for this year or the continued political push for data to be controlled/transparent?

Do you have a long term price you're holding to or just holding for 10 years?

My short term opinion:


A much better investor's opinion:
RightWingConspirator
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badharambe,

I'm going to be holding for at least 3-5 years. Whatever happens in the short term I'll just deal with it. I like the revenue growth (and if memory serves the NI growth far surpassed the revenue growth, which shows some cost discipline) and the fact that the company leaders are heavily invested in the company.

Admittedly, there is much in this space I do not understand so I turn to folks who do understand it well, and I made my purchase based on their expertise.
"But it is easier to purchase products that denote superiority than to be actually superior in economic achievement." - Thomas J. Stanley
SMM48
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AG
Puts. Same difference. Keep the stock....especially if it has large taxable gains.
59 South
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Jet Black said:

59 South said:

Same. But change 8 to 6 or even 3 that I considered at one point or another. Still have never owned.


What do you think of it at 10ish?
Seems a little overbought doubling last week from $5 to $10. The volume has been insane though. I wouldn't be surprised to see it keep going some more, but I'm being cautious now and not chasing. $11-11.50 should be major resistance.

I'm going to wait to see whether it slows down and bull flags absorbing the profit takers, or if it has a short term blow off top and does the Model T 50% retrace. I think either of those will be the signal to buy. At some point there will be profit taking, and I don't want to be stuck holding the bag. Long term I think it's a screaming buy, but I'd like to get in at a better price than $10. Ideally around $5-6 now. I'm being patient and seeing where it goes. Never know with these types of moves... could be like OSTK these past few months...

Here's a good article from last week before it just kept going:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4355376-workhorse-potential-thoroughbred

ETA wow closing in on $12 premarket.
Jet Black
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Closing in on $13
59 South
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AG
It's officially silly at this point and somewhere on those graphs I posted on the OP that would make it scary to buy at this point.
Jet Black
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Yep. Passed $13.50.

Edit: $14.00
GtownRAB
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What are the thoughts on AMD under $50?
I bleed maroon
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AG
You Bet - How do you feel about PLUG now, at over $8 a share? I am hedging with some puts (stock is in a separate non-option approved account), as I feel it might be overheated.
59 South
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AG
GtownRAB said:

What are the thoughts on AMD under $50?
I was just checking in on it. The entry and trade at $54 obviously didn't work out the way I was betting last week, but it isn't dead in the water just yet even though it is looking pretty ugly. If it stays under $50 either by continuing to fall or going sideways in a bear flag, I'd be concerned and look to exit at a loss.

Going into the trade knowing this was a possibility, I've had to pivot from playing the ascending triangle breakout and hold for big gains quick to now playing it as more of a sideways Darvas box accumulation strategy trade. It's at an important support zone here today. It also needs to get back above 50 in the purple box and stay there for a few days to warrant holding. This is the 3rd time now that it has sold off for about 5 days straight and headed right to that previous support. In the first 2 times, it bounced back hard back in the box with a clear daily reversal candle. That needs to happen by mid/late this week.. really more like tomorrow or Wednesday. Then I'd be patient with it and look to sell covered calls on 25% when it gets to 56 or so, and then split the rest half and half between sell and hold to get my cost average down in the lower part of the sideways box under 52.


GtownRAB
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AG
59 South said:

GtownRAB said:

What are the thoughts on AMD under $50?
I was just checking in on it. The entry and trade at $54 obviously didn't work out the way I was betting last week, but it isn't dead in the water just yet even though it is looking pretty ugly. If it stays under $50 either by continuing to fall or going sideways in a bear flag, I'd be concerned and look to exit at a loss.

Going into the trade knowing this was a possibility, I've had to pivot from playing the ascending triangle breakout and hold for big gains quick to now playing it as more of a sideways Darvas box accumulation strategy trade. It's at an important support zone here today. It also needs to get back above 50 in the purple box and stay there for a few days to warrant holding. This is the 3rd time now that it has sold off for about 5 days straight and headed right to that previous support. In the first 2 times, it bounced back hard back in the box with a clear daily reversal candle. That needs to happen by mid/late this week.. really more like tomorrow or Wednesday. Then I'd be patient with it and look to sell covered calls on 25% when it gets to 56 or so, and then split the rest half and half between sell and hold to get my cost average down in the lower part of the sideways box under 52.





Thanks for the info - I am one of the guys still learning. Only buying stocks right now, trading calls vicariously trying to ease into it.

Overall, I am not rushing into buying anything right now. I made nice gains the last few months, don't really want to give them back.
59 South
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AG
You're doing it right then. We're all still learning on here... well except for maybe OA1.
59 South
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AG
Jesus... WKHS trying to take out 15 now.
Michael Cera Palin
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59 South said:

Jesus... WKHS trying to take out 15 now.

The gain today/this past month is crazy. Had never heard of them until now.

What's the plan with this? I would assume long term hold based on the potential?
Jet Black
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Pulled back to under 13
59 South
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AG
AMD got that close over 50 and now up a bit AH piggybacking on MU earnings beat. A little more optimistic about it now. Tomorrow needs to be a big green candle.

ETA over 51 now. Gimme 55 tomorrow baby!
YouBet
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AG
I bleed maroon said:

You Bet - How do you feel about PLUG now, at over $8 a share? I am hedging with some puts (stock is in a separate non-option approved account), as I feel it might be overheated.


Frankly, I'm not sure. I honestly haven't paid much attention to it in a long while simply because it's been unchanged for many years. Looks like they just bought two companies so folks are high on them right now.

It was always my penny stock gamble that I was going to ride to the end regardless. I'm pleasantly surprised to see them this high.

I do have a good friend in a related business who is pretty knowledgeable on PLUG. I'm going to ask him for further insight.
cheeky
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WKHS I presume is benefiting from the reconstitution of the Russel Indices?

Will keep an eye on this thread.
HoustonAg2014
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Thanks for putting this thread together!

I am
1) 20% AMZN (ROTH IRA 100% of it)
2) 79% ROKU (Rollover IRA from previous employer)
3) 1% Tech ETF (new 401k plan)
4) All cash transferred from brokerage. We're looking to buy a house and I took a decent hit being stupid with margin and forced to sell my Roku when it got to 75.

I plan to hold AMZN forever. It will only get more expensive over time. I was told to sell at 1,000 and didn't take the advice rightfully so. I have always believed in it long term. I buy it every year in my roth regardless of price. And it was brought to my attention that they don't even participate in share buybacks yet. That's huge and unlike almost any stock.

Roku I didn't know much about until I started seeing it pop up on here about 6 months to a year ago. It is clear that people are going to streaming in crazy fast numbers. Parents who never even thought to drop cable have asked how they can switch. They are watching Netflix which was something they said they would never do. The younger generation is already cord nevers and if the older generation is getting on board (a lot that I have talked to are switching or trying to). I went longer Roku this year than Amazon because I think it has a better chance to triple at a faster pace than Amazon. I think both have BLOWOUT second quarters. Stay at home started in March but didn't really get going till April/May.

I am young and just can't imagine the market beating either of these stocks longer term.
TriumphForks
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Congrats to those of you who are in WKHS. Saw it posted on here a few days ago and thought I had long missed the boat. Apparently not!
YouBet
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Aggiesincebirth said:

Thanks for putting this thread together!

I am
1) 20% AMZN (ROTH IRA 100% of it)
2) 79% ROKU (Rollover IRA from previous employer)
3) 1% Tech ETF (new 401k plan)
4) All cash transferred from brokerage. We're looking to buy a house and I took a decent hit being stupid with margin and forced to sell my Roku when it got to 75.

I plan to hold AMZN forever. It will only get more expensive over time. I was told to sell at 1,000 and didn't take the advice rightfully so. I have always believed in it long term. I buy it every year in my roth regardless of price. And it was brought to my attention that they don't even participate in share buybacks yet. That's huge and unlike almost any stock.

Roku I didn't know much about until I started seeing it pop up on here about 6 months to a year ago. It is clear that people are going to streaming in crazy fast numbers. Parents who never even thought to drop cable have asked how they can switch. They are watching Netflix which was something they said they would never do. The younger generation is already cord nevers and if the older generation is getting on board (a lot that I have talked to are switching or trying to). I went longer Roku this year than Amazon because I think it has a better chance to triple at a faster pace than Amazon. I think both have BLOWOUT second quarters. Stay at home started in March but didn't really get going till April/May.

I am young and just can't imagine the market beating either of these stocks longer term.

This is your entire portfolio? Two stocks?

That is ballsy! Good luck!
GtownRAB
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AG
YouBet said:

Aggiesincebirth said:

Thanks for putting this thread together!

I am
1) 20% AMZN (ROTH IRA 100% of it)
2) 79% ROKU (Rollover IRA from previous employer)
3) 1% Tech ETF (new 401k plan)
4) All cash transferred from brokerage. We're looking to buy a house and I took a decent hit being stupid with margin and forced to sell my Roku when it got to 75.

I plan to hold AMZN forever. It will only get more expensive over time. I was told to sell at 1,000 and didn't take the advice rightfully so. I have always believed in it long term. I buy it every year in my roth regardless of price. And it was brought to my attention that they don't even participate in share buybacks yet. That's huge and unlike almost any stock.

Roku I didn't know much about until I started seeing it pop up on here about 6 months to a year ago. It is clear that people are going to streaming in crazy fast numbers. Parents who never even thought to drop cable have asked how they can switch. They are watching Netflix which was something they said they would never do. The younger generation is already cord nevers and if the older generation is getting on board (a lot that I have talked to are switching or trying to). I went longer Roku this year than Amazon because I think it has a better chance to triple at a faster pace than Amazon. I think both have BLOWOUT second quarters. Stay at home started in March but didn't really get going till April/May.

I am young and just can't imagine the market beating either of these stocks longer term.

This is your entire portfolio? Two stocks?

That is ballsy! Good luck!


And mainly ROKU! I am scared from owning a little of that one.
59 South
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Don't be scared! I would switch those allocations though and go 80/20 AMZN/ROKU!
HoustonAg2014
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I've lived and died by a couple stocks lol. I've been all in on Apple, FB, AMZN, and now Roku. It's ballzy but tech in general is what I invest in. I used to work for an oil company and oil stocks sucked lol. After 5 years my company's stock was flat and I made a 3-4% dividend.

Now I make 2% a week selling covered calls on Roku pretty far out of the money. I'm up 10% this month doing that and the stock is at my cost basis. But agree hell if you go 100% long amazon you will probably end up compounding 20% yearly
59 South
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AG
Sounds like we're pretty similar... Dollars wise, I actually own 3x more ROKU than AMZN while cost basis is only 1.8x.

Love the covered calls on ROKU. I have all of mine in a 401k with no options allowed.

I'm also in O&G (service side). And agree, NEVER invest in O&G stocks long term.
deadbq03
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PWestAg18 said:

59 South said:

Jesus... WKHS trying to take out 15 now.

The gain today/this past month is crazy. Had never heard of them until now.

What's the plan with this? I would assume long term hold based on the potential?
I dabbled in them a year or two ago, pre-Trump tweet. They had a very good looking and highly functional electric light duty truck prototype that I was excited about. But at that time they were a month away from getting delisted for being under $1. I think I made a tiny profit and then bailed because they seemed lost and delisting seemed likely (they were chasing too many wild side projects, even the truck I liked would count as one). Of course, a few months after I get out, they focused on their core business of electric delivery trucks, somehow got on Trump's radar and his tweet changed their trajectory.
deadbq03
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AG
Swollen Thumb
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AG
59 South said:

AMD got that close over 50 and now up a bit AH piggybacking on MU earnings beat. A little more optimistic about it now. Tomorrow needs to be a big green candle.

ETA over 51 now. Gimme 55 tomorrow baby!
Ok, so it held 50 at close yesterday and is up on good volume to open today. So you think this looks good for entry for mid-ling term play?

59 South
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AG
It really depends on your time frame and patience. I ultimately think it will eventually break 60 and head to 75-100. Could be soon and could be awhile.

I like it closing over 52 here today if that holds. That full recapture of last Friday's big red candle and 8 EMA is good for shorter term. Closing over 53 today or tomorrow is even better and recaptures last Thursday's candle and the 21 as well. That should almost certainly get you in the 54-57 range quick. So 5-10% is good enough for some.

For longer term you're playing for the big bucks and an order of magnitude trade more 50-100% (more my style), but a lot of things can mess it up during that process - earnings, macro, etc...
TxAG#2011
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Looks like the inverted H&S meme on Tesla finally slammed through and oh boy is it running. 1.5k on deck.
Wirefence99
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JAGGF

.$36

Jet Black
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Wirefence99 said:

JAGGF

.$36




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