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Stock Markets - Swing and Longer Term Trades

161,429 Views | 930 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Bob Knights Paper Hands
fig96
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AG
AgCPA95 said:

I bleed maroon said:

yukmonkey said:

I sold 500 shares of FB at 35
Understanding virtually nothing about the FB business, I bought 100 shares the same day as their IPO, and almost sold for a double when I anecdotally heard that younger people were abandoning it, leaving just lame baby boomers as clients.

Then I decided to hold it as the value of their advertising approach became evident (in my daytime business life, I was repeatedly told that FB ads outperform others by a wide margin). Now, I just consider it a core holding that I will likely keep till retirement. Up 587% so far, demonstrating the value of buy-and-hold, if you give it enough time.
Been in and out of it as well, but now consider it a core. Instagram and Whatsapp also bring it a ton of value from different demographics.
So I personally got rid of FB a while back as I didn't feel comfortable investing in a company whose ethics I took issue with. I recognize that there's a lot of financial value in them (particular in the data they collect) but I want to invest in companies whose mission or product I at least feel good about and they don't check that box for me.

I also completely admit that one could probably rule out just about any company based on anything from political stance to labor practices and I don't fault anyone who might keep FB in their portfolio, but I'm curious if anyone else has certain companies they feel similarly about (and not looking to start a political debate please)?
59 South
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AG
FB for me too. I know it's a dumb reason, but I just loathe Zuckerberg.
AgCPA95
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fig96 said:

AgCPA95 said:

I bleed maroon said:

yukmonkey said:

I sold 500 shares of FB at 35
Understanding virtually nothing about the FB business, I bought 100 shares the same day as their IPO, and almost sold for a double when I anecdotally heard that younger people were abandoning it, leaving just lame baby boomers as clients.

Then I decided to hold it as the value of their advertising approach became evident (in my daytime business life, I was repeatedly told that FB ads outperform others by a wide margin). Now, I just consider it a core holding that I will likely keep till retirement. Up 587% so far, demonstrating the value of buy-and-hold, if you give it enough time.
Been in and out of it as well, but now consider it a core. Instagram and Whatsapp also bring it a ton of value from different demographics.
So I personally got rid of FB a while back as I didn't feel comfortable investing in a company whose ethics I took issue with. I recognize that there's a lot of financial value in them (particular in the data they collect) but I want to invest in companies whose mission or product I at least feel good about and they don't check that box for me.

I also completely admit that one could probably rule out just about any company based on anything from political stance to labor practices and I don't fault anyone who might keep FB in their portfolio, but I'm curious if anyone else has certain companies they feel similarly about (and not looking to start a political debate please)?
One of my biggest winners ever to this day is Atria $MO so I guess I will sell my soul for money to get to retirement faster. (I'm kidding) But you are correct you find something "bad" about basically any company out there if you try.
AGSmith
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khaos288 said:

AGSmith said:

Best high dividend yield stocks... and go? I have some free cash in my HSA and that I moved from a savings account after I hit sufficient emergency funds elsewhere and the bank dropped interest rate below 1%


Ohi
Sdiv
Xom

Are mine
Bought into XOM yesterday. How frequently do OHI and SDIV pay dividends, quarterly or monthly?

ETA: has anyone bought into any cumulative preferred stock for dividends? NRZ/PB (7.5% cumulative preferred) is currently trading at a yield of 8.4%
khaos288
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AGSmith said:

khaos288 said:

AGSmith said:

Best high dividend yield stocks... and go? I have some free cash in my HSA and that I moved from a savings account after I hit sufficient emergency funds elsewhere and the bank dropped interest rate below 1%


Ohi
Sdiv
Xom

Are mine
Bought into XOM yesterday. How frequently do OHI and SDIV pay dividends, quarterly or monthly?

ETA: has anyone bought into any cumulative preferred stock for dividends? NRZ/PB (7.5% cumulative preferred) is currently trading at a yield of 8.4%


Sdiv is monthly and ohi is quarterly
Johnny Danger
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59 South said:

FB for me too. I know it's a dumb reason, but I just loathe Zuckerberg.

AT&T. They own CNN, couldn't stomach holding it even with a 6+ yield on cost.
RightWingConspirator
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For the options traders:

If you're bullish on an equity, do you guys typically choose far out of the money options or in the money options? As far as as the expiration, are you choosing things that are far out, or things that are more near term?

In theory, whether I choose an ITM or OTM options, I should still make money either way - assuming the stock rises, regardless of whether it hits my strike price, correct?

As far as the premium I pay, I'd prefer to purchase OTM options, but maybe there are things I'm not considering.

Your help is appreciated.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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It depends.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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There is higher risk with OTM options, but the potential earnings could be higher if you hit it right. If I have some solid price target - or at least what I hope is a solid target - I will tend to buy OTM. Also realize that OTM shares get hammered by decay.

ATM (or close to it) can be good if you are bullish on a stock and want a way to invest in more shares to leverage your earning potential but don't want as much risk as OTM. These also generally get hit by decay but much less than far OTM.

If I am less risk adverse on a stock I might look at way ITM calls. This still lowers my entry price versus buying shares so I'm leveraged a bit, but it's less likely to go to zero.

Sometimes I'll do a combination of shares and calls or a combination of different strike prices and call types, depending on what I'm trying to do.
K_P
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Brutally honest- I almost always am OTM because I'm cheap and afraid to speculate with too much money and I'm lured in by the high potential upside. Mostly they go to 0. A few have hit.
K_P
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AG
Is anyone short the VIX right now and how are you building that trade? Puts, etfs, etc?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Also I will add that my way OTM calls tend to be either what-the-hell gambles or recently value plays for stocks and industries most beaten up by covid like restaurants, casinos, entertainment, and airlines.

Most of my calls are just slightly OTM. I may be doing that wrong, but it has worked for me. If one of the professional investors here want to shame me and give a different strategy, that would be appreciated. Especially the shaming.
59 South
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I'm with ya Bob. But I had to mostly get out of options just because I don't have the bandwidth to babysit them anymore. It takes a lot of work and getting multiple variables correct to really work (ticker, price, timing, etc etc.)... just too much mental toll for a non professional. I'll plan to get back into a lot more once I get retired or quasi retired at some point...
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
gougler08
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59 South said:

I'm with ya Bob. But I had to mostly get out of options just because I don't have the bandwidth to babysit them anymore. It takes a lot of work and getting multiple variables correct to really work (ticker, price, timing, etc etc.)... just too much mental toll for a non professional. I'll plan to get back into a lot more once I get retired or quasi retired at some point...


Same, when I started to learn options my job wasn't as time consuming so I had more time to watch the tickets and try to time things perfectly...now I use this and the other thread to find medium term opportunities to trade
Brian Earl Spilner
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Recently started going in on AAPL and QQQ.

In the past I've mostly stayed out of tech, but I feel like that's one of the safer long-term plays at this point.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Recently started going in on AAPL and QQQ.

In the past I've mostly stayed out of tech, but I feel like that's one of the safer long-term plays at this point.

Tech is expensive now. That doesn't mean that it's a bad investment - it's been great the last few months. Just don't get too confident that it's "safe" and go in too deep on one sector without realizing your risk there.
fig96
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Recently started going in on AAPL and QQQ.

In the past I've mostly stayed out of tech, but I feel like that's one of the safer long-term plays at this point.

Tech is expensive now. That doesn't mean that it's a bad investment - it's been great the last few months. Just don't get too confident that it's "safe" and go in too deep on one sector without realizing your risk there.
One of my biggest revelations in investing was truly accepting not to let price (relative to something being cheap or more expensive) affect whether or not I invested in a company. (I realize you're not saying this, just think the point is valuable and might help someone else out.)

Granted, price does make some stocks not especially accessible if you don't have $1000+ to invest at a time but wanting to buy something "cheaper" was a mindset I had to adjust (and hey, Tesla is splitting soon).

If you've got 10 shares of a $10 stock or 1 share of a $100 stock, if that stock goes up 10% you've still made $10. Invest in the company, not because of the price.
RightWingConspirator
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Bob Knight,

Created a little spreadsheet to track different strategies in Options just to see how each would behave. I'm writing specifically about ITM and OTM options. I wanted to check my understanding on the following:

As long as the bid price is higher than the ask price that I paid for the option (in this case a call), I make money, correct? This may be very elementary, but I'd like to make sure as I track my theoretical gains/losses. It should not be affected at all by whether I've hit the strike price as long as the option bid price when I sell is higher than the option ask price I paid for the option, correct? I realize that as time moves on, the bid/ask prices will be affected by the expiration date and time decay, but if I'm selling the call with plenty of time left, and there's still plenty of time value left in the option, the bid price should exceed the ask I paid and I will make money, correct?

As always, your help is most appreciated.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yes, good point. I meant expensive in a relative context, not specifically Tesla's price over $1,500 being higher than JPM's stock price. Many tech companies have had huge runs this year. That's not a negative towards investing in AAPL, AMZN, or TSLA or investing in QQQ. It was more a remark about making sure anyone that pushes all their chips into QQQ or spread across large tech stocks understands the risk of putting their eggs in one basket.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yes, you can make money in a call or put regardless of whether the underlying stock gets to it's strike price. As the stock price moves or as sentiment towards the volatility of the stock changes the premiums that people will pay for that contract move also. I believe Carter goes through a lot of that relationship between option prices and stock prices in Mastering the Trade. I'm not there yet, I started reading that one and decided I needed to read more trading 101 level books to fully digest that one. You mentioned the ask vs bid prices - liquidity is another thing to think about when investing in options. If you buy options on SPX or something very liquid the ask and bid are close. The less liquidity, there is more potential for wider gap in ask and bid and it might take longer for you to buy or sell the option.

You might enjoy looking at historical prices of options versus the historical prices of the underlying stocks. You can take a stock like AAPL and pick round strike prices and then look at the historical prices of calls and puts.

Here's a chart of watching the 01/2021 $350 call go from $20 to $120 while the underlying goes from $320 to $460.

fig96
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AG
Totally with you.
Cartographer
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This will be my first post here but I feel pretty good about this one.

NKLA

Given that TSLA has proven the EV market to be valuable and the shift of larger automakers into this space, I think this company has large potential.

It recently broke the flag with a nice gap up. IMO $50 is coming soon possibly more.

They will be the first to create any sort of EV large truck and just received an order for to build 2500 electric garbage trucks.

They may not be the long term winner of the EV truck space but they have a head start and I think there's significant potential in this market.

Simple chart attached. Note the massive volume buying pre and into the flag break that has clearly not sold.

WGann3
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AG
Just a disclaimer on this one, I've done absolutely no chart analysis or any real due dilligence on them. But I see it called a scam stock all the time. Didn't they report like $30,000 worth of revenue last quarter and it was installing solar panels or something wild? Have you seen and/or read enough to make you think it's a legit operation?
Cartographer
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I've read a lot of that as well. I know that the plan is large and ambitious.

My intent here is to ride the technical and the buzz of the EV push happening in the market overall. The swing should last a few weeks at most. I'm looking to get over $50 and then reassess.

I would not take this one long until they actually produce trucks and have orders available.

The further plan to build out the hydrogen fueling stations is ambitious at worst. Definitely a swing and not a long term hold for me.
WGann3
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Good deal, thanks for the breakdown. Was just genuinely curious what your personal take and approach was for it. I try not to buy into everything I read on the interwebs, especially on Reddit where NKLA is just ripped to shreds regularly. Even if it is a long term scam, there's still potential money to be made on scams.
Cartographer
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My thoughts exactly!

I do think the space will grow and with what TSLA has done, I think there will be some good long term plays to be had.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I also like the play to buy into nice looking Tsla clones and that chart does look nice. I'm gun shy of investing much money into Chinese stocks right now. Between the some of the fraud that Gann alluded to and the Sino-US tensions I can only invest in home-run gamble money on them right now.
fig96
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I learned my lesson on Chinese stocks after Luckin...no thank you.

NKLA is interesting as a flyer with a small investment, but there's a whole lot of question marks right now.
djmeen95
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fig96 said:

I learned my lesson on Chinese stocks after Luckin...no thank you.

NKLA is interesting as a flyer with a small investment, but there's a whole lot of question marks right now.


Weighing in on NKLA. I work in the Transport space and I hear ALOT of folks who think the heavy duty solution to lower carbon emissions is hydrogen
fuel cells. Don't underestimate big companies scrambling for new technology.
CheladaAg
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Since the thread is on the EV discussion. Has anyone looked into WKHS or SPAQ? Both of these look interesting for mid term plays. Both are very different but in the same space.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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djmeen95 said:

Don't underestimate big companies scrambling for new technology.

By that do you mean potential for a buyout from a Jeff Bezos or a Jessie Eisenberg trying to keep up with the Muskes?
djmeen95
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Or a major truck OEM or even someone wanting to play another angle of the hydrogen fuels business. Just saying.
Wirefence99
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Jet Black said:

Wirefence99 said:

.
JAGGF

.44 now

Nice

$1+ by spring


Why are you so positive on this?
.60 now


Nice

$1 by spring
$30,000 Millionaire
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K_P said:

Is anyone short the VIX right now and how are you building that trade? Puts, etfs, etc?


I am thinking of selling VXX 20P because I don't care if I get assigned at those prices.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Do you know how to get $TIKI (nasdaq) to show up in active trader pro? I use TIC.N for NYSE. I have started to hate the platform.
 
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