CowtownAg06 said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Quote:

---

I think we are getting to the point where we can open up Texas (and most places) if people maintain social distancing and wear masks.

---

Therein lies your problem

Without legal enforcement and strong social shaming (neither of which will happen without a significant body count) you won't have enough people wearing masks to make them beneficial enough to keep this under control.

---

If you believe the number of 60% compliance is what we need, we got there without mandatory compliance in central Houston. I've been to both HEB and Lowes in the past two weeks and think it's easily 60% masked and growing.

---

I think you will probably see compliance in metro areas but I'm not as sure about other areas. Hopefully I'm wrong and everybody complies above 60% as killing this thing with cloth masks would be amazing.

Wearing mask has the same effect as herd immunity. The more contagious the disease, the higher the percent of population required to stop the spread. With a Ro of 2.5, the percentage required is around 83%.

If the antibody tests are to believed and spread is 60x what is reported (I have my doubts), the mask percentage would move up into the 90s.

but that's not the Rt you're facing if you're already distancing and more

layers of protection: hygiene, social distancing, no large gatherings, masks - they add up, enhance, and belt and suspenders each other

you might only need 60% mask compliance if people are going out of their way to avoid each other

Texas trending info on cases and deaths:

aggieduke said:

---

aggieduke said:

---

Sorry if this has been discussed...but are mask now available for purchase in stores or online?

---

---

Places like etsy and several online stores do sell them. I'm sure there are several people on your facebook and/or Nextdoor that are making and selling them, at least in my area they are. You can also make your own with a neck gaiter, bandana, tshirt, etc.

CowtownAg06 said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Quote:

---

I think we are getting to the point where we can open up Texas (and most places) if people maintain social distancing and wear masks.

---

Therein lies your problem

Without legal enforcement and strong social shaming (neither of which will happen without a significant body count) you won't have enough people wearing masks to make them beneficial enough to keep this under control.

---

If you believe the number of 60% compliance is what we need, we got there without mandatory compliance in central Houston. I've been to both HEB and Lowes in the past two weeks and think it's easily 60% masked and growing.

---

HEB and Costco recently in SA prior to masks being mandatory, it looked to me to be above 60% pretty easily.

Well, the IHME model is up to its foolishness again.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

Projecting 40+ deaths a day every day in Texas from tomorrow through May 9th.

Texas has had 1 day with more than 40 deaths over the course of this entire pandemic, and the average for the last week is about 20 fatalities per day.


(Wyoming remains my favorite IHMEWTF?!, though.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/wyoming

Predicting that Wyoming, which has 7 deaths to date, will have 50 by this Friday, May 1st. There are fewer than 400 confirmed cases in the state, with the overwhelming majority confirmed more than two weeks ago.)

Good to see Keegan posting amongst us again.

Current projection is 9,700 by Oct 1. This has been a wild journey, hopefully the world can learn something from this.

Yea, IHME missed on a LOT. It was considered the standard early on.

Quit checking it back in May once it became clear how it mainly just tried to force the Wuhan curve on everything, regardless of density, climate, testing policies, etc.


Then they destroyed all remaining credibility when they decided to proselytize for BLM protests.

Keegan99 said:

---

Well, the IHME model is up to its foolishness again.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

Projecting 40+ deaths a day every day in Texas from tomorrow through May 9th.

Texas has had 1 day with more than 40 deaths over the course of this entire pandemic, and the average for the last week is about 20 fatalities per day.

---

Looks like Texas averaged over 38 deaths per day over those 11 days.

The modeling is a crap shoot and has been proven "wrong" in a dynamic situation (various forms of lockdown on and off), but is probably based on more than just what has happened to date or in the last week.

It's interesting to go back and read the posts from march through May and see what I was thinking, what most people were thinking - the ups and downs of it all is something I hope is avoided in our next go round. What is really different between the 2009 pandemic and this one? Hospitalization and death rate? We are softer now? More media hysteria now? America is so overly politicized now it amplifies the extremes of this topic? It seems like the world, or certainly America, should be able to handle this better. My mom is in her 70's and worried about this virus more than she should be, in my opinion, and I asked her what she remembered about the late 50's and late 60's pandemics (she would have been 10 and 20, she'd remember it if it was handled anything like COvid 19) and the reply was basically - "what pandemics?"

Quote:

---

Looks like Texas averaged over 38 deaths per day over those 11 days.

---

Yes, the model badly overshot. Don't have a screenshot, but the 40 number was the floor. It was mostly up in the mid to high 40's, and even went over 50, if memory serves. IHME botched their short-term projection by well over 20%.

Hmm