Updated IHME model now predicts only 957 deaths in Texas

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Palovic
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 4:18p, 4/19/20
Player To Be Named Later said:
I've lost family members to heart disease, and cancer.

Of course I wouldn't push for any type of shelter in place or "lock downs" because that would be pretty pointless.

I can't go to an NFL game and spread heart disease or cancer to 3 people sitting around me. You're making a ridiculous comparison.

Then I would recommend you not attend any games if that is your concern.

My original comment was not about comparing the transmission or similarity of the diseases. My comment was solely based on your comment about people being effected through loss of a loved one due to death by a disease, which you missed because YOU brought up transmission as a point and how they are not comparable.

I am sorry for your lost loved ones due to those diseases.

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cone
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In reply to [removed post] • 4:20p, 4/19/20
AG
and what will happen moving forward if hospitals become overwhelmed?

another shelter in place? or sorry hospitals, do your job.
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Palovic
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In reply to cone • 4:26p, 4/19/20
cone said:
and what will happen moving forward if hospitals become overwhelmed?

another shelter in place? or sorry hospitals, do your job.


The what if game can be played with multiple scenarios.

What if a hurricane hit Houston again late this summer and shut down the city and no one could get treatment for anything?

All you can do is learn from past experiences and have a plan to address if the scenario arise.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best. It is something my company has done for years as have many others.

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cone
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In reply to Palovic • 4:28p, 4/19/20
AG
no let's focus on the absolutely possible scenario where things are loosened to where Texas metro hospitals are on track to being overwhelmed based on hospitalization reports

what would be done in response in, say, late July?
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Palovic
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In reply to cone • 4:42p, 4/19/20
cone said:
no let's focus on the absolutely possible scenario where things are loosened to where Texas metro hospitals are on track to being overwhelmed based on hospitalization reports

what would be done in response in, say, late July?


That's a very speculative scenario based upon unknown factors as you did not provide any.

Are you assuming that there are no treatments available that have proven anecdotal effectiveness in both early and late treatment stages, no testing capacity for infection or antibodies, or has symptomatic cases increased this next round than the previous for an unknown reason?

There is a concern that a worse case scenario could occur but the major difference eis that we are much more prepared going forward and new discoveries will continue to occur as we move forward tot he next season where it starts to infect many people again.

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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to [removed post] • 4:46p, 4/19/20
AG
SoupNazi2001 said:
Player To Be Named Later said:
I've lost family members to heart disease, and cancer.

Of course I wouldn't push for any type of shelter in place or "lock downs" because that would be pretty pointless.

I can't go to an NFL game and spread heart disease or cancer to 3 people sitting around me. You're making a ridiculous comparison.


Then stay at home indefinitely if you are concerned but that isn't an effective strategy for most. The original intent of the stay at home orders was to flatten the curve and free up hospital capacity. That has been accomplished. The strategy was never to save every life. Vulnerable and elderly should continue to self isolate. That is in the CDC plans. It's time to start phased re-openings.
See, that's exactly what's wrong here these days..... there is NO middle ground to be had at all. I have not once suggested that anyone should stay at home indefinitely. I'm hoping we can begin to ease back into things in a responsible manner. But it seems like it's either full bore or lock down.... no room in between right now.
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cone
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In reply to Palovic • 4:47p, 4/19/20
AG
yes I am assuming no sentinel surveillance testing capacity within the next six weeks if ever

what are you assuming?
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Fenrir
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 4:56p, 4/19/20
I fail to see how the current plan, at least what Texas is doing, is "full bore" back to normalcy.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to Fenrir • 5:10p, 4/19/20
AG
I'm speaking more of the TexAgs posse that seems to think even Phase 1 is ridiculous. If you dare express a cautious outlook on here lately, you're lumped in as someone who wants SIP until a vaccine, which is also ridiculous.

It's just like our society these days though to paint everyone into corners.
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Palovic
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In reply to cone • 6:07p, 4/19/20
I am not making any assumptions regarding what will occur.

I was only looking for clarification regarding your comments. Your thoughts are no less valid than mine even though we may disagree.
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Marvin
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In reply to Aust Ag • 6:08p, 4/19/20
AG
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
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cone
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In reply to Marvin • 6:15p, 4/19/20
AG
texags response:

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BowSowy
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In reply to cone • 7:14p, 4/19/20
AG
cone said:
you mean how would i make chicken salad out of chicken *****

before i ask, is lack of testing a real constraint? because Gov. Abbott hasn't indicated as much. he's been saying for weeks that our testing is going to be ramping up and yet we're flat. in fact, we're almost dead last in testing per capita.

so if we can't test or can't scale, then that would be useful news to prepare us for what will be a quicker and larger than expected second wave.

my prediction - we'll hand wave the testing capacity until it's too late and then we'll attempt to power through the bad days (cost of doing business) and say testing amidst an ongoing epidemic isn't useful (because it isn't - you want to surveil to prevent the epidemic).
Extrapolate future testing capability to whatever you think we'll have over the foreseeable future.

I'm asking you this because you've been relentlessly complaining about the approach we're taking. I'm curious how you would improve this going forward.
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cone
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In reply to BowSowy • 7:39p, 4/19/20
AG
I would improve it by actually pushing for the sort of surveillance testing people like Scott Gottlieb have been advocating for months

If that's not achievable, they need to tell us that and why not. Instead, I've been hearing for months that testing volume will pick up, but overall throughput is flat, % positives are in the double digits, and Texas (the place I'm more concerned about) is lowest in per capita testing.

so you ask what I would do given our limitations? are these limitations or just failure to act and marshall resources in a deliberate way? and if there are limitations, why lie to the public about the prospective layer of protection? because without sentinel surveillance are whole approach will be reactive - i.e. we won't see epidemics clearly until they're already here, thereby increasing the need to resort to something resembling a lockdown.

I'm familiar with a local doc in a box that's been offering mobile testing (with zero profit motive - mostly to keep those patients out of the office). Processing a 100 a day, max. Well after Abbott's speech last week they were being asked to try to get to 10000 tests a week by next month, with no plan, no compensation, no leads for increased staffing. just a number they're being asked to hit. does that sound like a public health system on top of the crisis? or does that sound like a state and local response wishcasting through private business to keep up with Abbott's plan in the aftermath of the announced opening? I hope I'm wrong, but I was pretty floored by the timing.

And no I'm not trolling. I'm legit concerned.
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BowSowy
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In reply to cone • 8:28p, 4/19/20
AG
I'm not familiar with the kind of surveillance Dr. Gottlieb is talking about, could you expand on that? Is it similar to the SK method of tracking phone location data? If so, I think there's going to be a huge amount of people who don't adopt that.
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Carnwellag2
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In reply to cone • 9:44p, 4/19/20
cone said:
no let's focus on the absolutely possible scenario where things are loosened to where Texas metro hospitals are on track to being overwhelmed based on hospitalization reports

what would be done in response in, say, late July?
consider the alternative - do you really think that we can sustain what we have been doing for 4 weeks for another 76?

We need to adapt our medical needs to the new reality and that is there will be a lot of people needing care over the next 76 weeks.

but to think that it is no big deal to just stay locked down is ignorant and blind.

take College Station with a 76 week shutdown:

what businesses can remain open: some hospitals (with federal funding) and grocery stores. people will be cashless and need food. when this happens Crime increases EXPONENTIALLY. CS and A&M government employees will be reduced 90%. no one will be able to afford online classes at A&M when you can get them at other places for 1/10 the cost.


So Answer this: how will everyone eat/ pay rent/ pay mortgage/ live with no money?


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WestTexasAg
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In reply to Bondag • 10:20p, 4/19/20
AG
Bondag said:
Keegan99 said:
If you want a head scratcher, look at the IHME model for Wyoming.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/wyoming

Wyoming has about 300 current cases and 2 current deaths. They do not have anything close to exponential growth in their reported case counts. Their 7 day moving average of new cases is under 10 per day and is declining. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/wyoming-coronavirus-cases.html)

Nevertheless, the IHME model projects an eye popping 240+ deaths in Wyoming. Or about 1/4 as many as Texas, which has 50x the population.

I'm thinking the model really struggles with rural areas and accounting for Wyoming's lack of a stay-at-home order. Which isn't needed because, ya know, it's Wyoming.
I have ready articles about the soccer match that was ground zero for Italy, but have seen nothing about the Staples Center.

In Italy they have public transportation, live in multigenerational houses, greet with a kiss, and take common communion.

In California there was an event a day in staples center for like 30 straight days before the shutdown, yet we have not seen the spike they had from one outdoor soccer match.

The models have no idea what they are doing.
We were scheduled to be at the Staples Center for a Laker game during spring break......a week after everything got shut down.
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ham98
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In reply to cone • 10:28p, 4/19/20
cone said:
texags response:

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cone
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In reply to BowSowy • 10:35p, 4/19/20
AG
it's the sort of surveillance where you test enough to where your positive case % is in the low single digits for weeks

we are at about 20% right now
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Bobcat06
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In reply to Palovic • 1:26a, 4/20/20
AG
Palovic said:
cone said:
and what will happen moving forward if hospitals become overwhelmed?

another shelter in place? or sorry hospitals, do your job.


The what if game can be played with multiple scenarios.

What if a hurricane hit Houston again late this summer and shut down the city and no one could get treatment for anything?

All you can do is learn from past experiences and have a plan to address if the scenario arise.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best. It is something my company has done for years as have many others.



cone: Do we have contingency plans if there's a second wave? (Litterally the reason to not end the shutdown)

Pavolic: What if we get hit by a hurricane? Can't have plans. Just got to learn to roll with it!

...and I thought the contagious heart attacks was ridiculous

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TCTTS
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In reply to Bobcat06 • 2:51a, 4/20/20
AG
That wasn't Pavolic's point at all. Pav is throwing out random what ifs because that's essentially what cone is doing. Pav is trying to make the point that cone's endless negativity and pessimism is based on just as much speculation as someone saying, "What if [random event X] happens?"

I've tried to be a realist throughout this entire ordeal, and have waved the alarmist flag myself a few times, but even I find cone's attitude to be insufferable. He lets only the negatives shape his outlook and attitude. His what ifs are never hopeful or optimistic or based on the positives that *can* happen as well. I'm not at all advocating for ignorance, but good gosh, he is Debbie Downer personified, in the most unproductive way imaginable.
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cone
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In reply to TCTTS • 6:10a, 4/20/20
AG
you think a second wave becoming uncontrolled due to lack of surveillance is a random what if?
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Palovic
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In reply to Bobcat06 • 7:17a, 4/20/20
Bobcat06 said:
Palovic said:
cone said:
and what will happen moving forward if hospitals become overwhelmed?

another shelter in place? or sorry hospitals, do your job.


The what if game can be played with multiple scenarios.

What if a hurricane hit Houston again late this summer and shut down the city and no one could get treatment for anything?

All you can do is learn from past experiences and have a plan to address if the scenario arise.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best. It is something my company has done for years as have many others.



cone: Do we have contingency plans if there's a second wave? (Litterally the reason to not end the shutdown)

Pavolic: What if we get hit by a hurricane? Can't have plans. Just got to learn to roll with it!

...and I thought the contagious heart attacks was ridiculous



Bobcat-Hurricane readiness plans are a staple here in Houston every year. They do not stop the Hurricane from hitting obviously, but it ensures the community and governments are prepared during the event and after. The only unknown in which you have to "roll with" is the severity and damage caused by the storm but it still occurs nonetheless.

Once again.... I never stated it was contagious nor did I mention anything about transmission. I simply made the comment that it is a rampant disease that kills more Americans on average everyday and we have yet to hear one person asking to shut down the economy to fix the problem as that was one of the previous posters points... That people will be lost if open things up too soon for coronavirus.

I was only trying to make the point that lives are lost everyday to various diseases unfortunately (I am sure we have all felt the impact) and utilizing that as an argument point to justify your stance on keeping things closed is flawed.
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Palovic
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In reply to cone • 7:30a, 4/20/20
cone said:
you think a second wave becoming uncontrolled due to lack of surveillance is a random what if?


It is a text book example of a what if scenario. It does have a chance of occurring but so does a second wave that is controlled with minimal surveillance. I do not know which has a greater chance of occurring but neither is absolute.

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BowSowy
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In reply to cone • 7:52a, 4/20/20
AG
cone said:
you think a second wave becoming uncontrolled due to lack of surveillance is a random what if?
Yes. It is the very definition of "what if", but you are too panicked to understand that. You did this exact same **** with the 2017 Astros season on that thread. You took the worst case scenario and made us miserable by continually posting about that worst case scenario as if it was a foregone conclusion. Please stop doing that with this situation.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to Marvin • 7:55a, 4/20/20
AG
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
I"m guessing in Houston? Thinking the mandatory masks thing is coming soon. Enacted in Austin last week, went to Home Depot yesterday and I'd say 90% compliance.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Marvin • 7:59a, 4/20/20
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.


Glad to hear that the majority of people still aren't cowards.
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CowtownAg06
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In reply to Aust Ag • 8:01a, 4/20/20
AG
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
I"m guessing in Houston? Thinking the mandatory masks thing is coming soon. Enacted in Austin last week, went to Home Depot yesterday and I'd say 90% compliance.
My experience in Houston as been over 50% having masks at grocery stores.
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Bondag
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 8:02a, 4/20/20
AG
IT was 50/50 at target yesterday.

PT and TP were stacked up all over the store.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 8:03a, 4/20/20
AG
SirLurksALot said:
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.


Glad to hear that the majority of people still aren't cowards.
You know the point of wearing a mask isn't to protect yourself, but rather to prevent asymptomatic folks from spreading virus before they are feeling symptoms.

So, you could rephrase that to read "Glad to hear that the majority of people are just selfish dicks and don't care about possibly infecting someone else"

This is what I really don't understand. Your crowd tells people that we should open everything up but isn't willing to even give an inch to prevent things from breaking out again. It really shouldn't surprise me that our society isn't willing to remotely find a middle ground, but I am a bit surprised that college educated folks can't realize that there is a middle between both extremes that probably is reasonable.
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oglaw
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 8:06a, 4/20/20
AG
CowtownAg06 said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
I"m guessing in Houston? Thinking the mandatory masks thing is coming soon. Enacted in Austin last week, went to Home Depot yesterday and I'd say 90% compliance.
My experience in Houston as been over 50% having masks at grocery stores.


I was at a Home Depot in Houston this weekend and I would say that far more people were wearing masks than not.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 8:08a, 4/20/20
AG
This is correct.

Wearing a mask is an extremely mild burden. At least not anything more than a store requiring customers to wear, say, shoes.

If wearing a mask gets us closer to having businesses open and society running closer to normal - which it does! - then we should all be in favor of it.

If we get to 90% of the population wearing masks, we can operate our day to day lives like South Korea and Japan.
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beerad12man
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 8:09a, 4/20/20
AG
There are VERY FEW that are 100% all in like he seems to be. Please don't start believing that everyone wants to open it back up doesn't want to budge an inch.

I believe we should open back up(never should have had mandatory shut downs where some random businesses remain open while others are forced to call it quits when it isn't even clearly defined, but that's another point). But MOST of us who want it opened back up still believe that many precautions should be in place and that we should not go back to 100% like it was December 2019 just yet. Limit people indoors per square footage, 6+ feet in lines, masks to be worn indoors in public, house gathering/party sizes to 10, 20 or whatever a reasonable number is, nursing homes off limits, and then just encouraging frequent hand-washing and general safety tips, etc. I don't think those are unreasonable as opposed to the current forced shut downs we are in now. Texas would have no doubt stayed under the curve simply doing those few things with some increased hygiene.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 8:10a, 4/20/20
Player To Be Named Later said:
SirLurksALot said:
Marvin said:
Aust Ag said:
Marvin said:
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.

After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
What happened??


1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.


Glad to hear that the majority of people still aren't cowards.
You know the point of wearing a mask isn't to protect yourself, but rather to prevent asymptomatic folks from spreading virus before they are feeling symptoms.

So, you could rephrase that to read "Glad to hear that the majority of people are just selfish dicks and don't care about possibly infecting someone else"

This is what I really don't understand. Your crowd tells people that we should open everything up but isn't willing to even give an inch to prevent things from breaking out again. It really shouldn't surprise me that our society isn't willing to remotely find a middle ground, but I am a bit surprised that college educated folks can't realize that there is a middle between both extremes that probably is reasonable.


If we're going to call people that don't wear a mask "idiots". Then I'm fine calling people that do wear them cowards.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to Keegan99 • 8:11a, 4/20/20
AG
Agree. I probably lean more on the cautious side (but damn sure not in the SIP until a vaccine camp). I want things to be able to open up, and I want us to not have another spike in cases.

Masks seem like a good way to get us there. I just can't understand the mentality of "Screw that, I ain't no coward!"
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