Updated IHME model now predicts only 957 deaths in Texas
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Last: 5 yr ago by Stymied
This. The shut down, for those COVID-doomsday believers who have forgotten, was and is about flattening the curve so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. That's not gonna matter when the hospitals go out of business.PJYoung said:Keegan99 said:
"As of Saturday, 1,321 coronavirus patients are known to be hospitalized in Texas. That's a decrease of 201 patients from Friday. At least 176,239 tests have been conducted."
From The Texas Tribune on Facebook.
It feels like Texas has peaked already but I guess opening things back up might change that.
We bought the time we need for PPE and hospital capacity, let her rip in Texas and see where that leads us.
Open it up, monitor. Rapid tests mailed to everyone isn't a condition, it's a political ploy.
cone said:
I agree. We need it. Maybe the summer weather will help after all. We can only hope.
that's 100% incorrect
you can plan and you can prepare and you can get the proper infrastructure in place
I'm surprised you've resigned yourself to this fate after your last two months of alarmism
this is still the same deadly debilitating bug but now it's leterrip tater chip
quite a blindspot
you can plan and you can prepare and you can get the proper infrastructure in place
I'm surprised you've resigned yourself to this fate after your last two months of alarmism
this is still the same deadly debilitating bug but now it's leterrip tater chip
quite a blindspot
Keegan99 said:
https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.htmlv
This study is very positive news as we begin to transition into Summer. If we can somehow find a group of technologies to control viral spread indoors and decontamination methods that are somewhat practical, then we should see a very controlled infection rate and potentially near zero before fall season where nobody knows how severe the infection spread will be and we will be much more prepared to identify, treat, and contain.
cone said:
that's 100% incorrect
you can plan and you can prepare and you can get the proper infrastructure in place
I'm surprised you've resigned yourself to this fate after your last two months of alarmism
this is still the same deadly debilitating bug but now it's leterrip tater chip
quite a blindspot
I'm concerned about opening up too much too soon, without the testing and tracing infrastructure in place, and having a rebound lockdown that is as bad or worse than the first. For as well as Texas is doing overall, our testing infrastructure is a major weakness right now. That weakness wasn't a big deal during the lockdown, but it's going to be more of a factor when we begin to open up if we can't make major improvements.
But we all need to be clear on one crucial point: this does NOT appear to be the same deadly, debilitating bug that we thought it was two months ago. The severity of infection and mortality rate is looking like it is much lower than we thought it was two months ago, or one month ago, and quite possibly lower than we thought even 1 week ago.
As we get more data, we will get a better picture of how much lower, but it's clearly trending towards being much less deadly and severe to infected patients than originally thought. If you haven't adjusted your thinking to reflect that reality then you're operating under an outdated paradigm.
Okay, I will expand on your outdated paradigm.
You, specifically, and "you" in the general sense, have based your entire viewpoint of this virus under an assumption regarding the fatality rate that was overstated, and is reasonable to conclude was greatly overstated.
There is a lot we don't know about this virus. That's absolutely true. But we know a heckuva lot more now than we did two months ago, one month ago, and likely even one week ago, and it is what we know now that should frame our viewpoint, not what we feared two months ago.
You, specifically, and "you" in the general sense, have based your entire viewpoint of this virus under an assumption regarding the fatality rate that was overstated, and is reasonable to conclude was greatly overstated.
There is a lot we don't know about this virus. That's absolutely true. But we know a heckuva lot more now than we did two months ago, one month ago, and likely even one week ago, and it is what we know now that should frame our viewpoint, not what we feared two months ago.
exactly
that's why I posted the link from Friday
that's why I posted the link from Friday
cone said:
exactly
that's why I posted the link from Friday
You posted a link to an article you haven't read about something you have no idea the significance of, why, exactly?
I'm not going to try to psychoanalyze you, but you may want to ask yourself if there's something that's causing you to look for reasons to maintain your fear of the severity of the virus.
cone said:
that's 100% incorrect
you can plan and you can prepare and you can get the proper infrastructure in place
I'm surprised you've resigned yourself to this fate after your last two months of alarmism
this is still the same deadly debilitating bug but now it's leterrip tater chip
quite a blindspot
I still believe it's just as deadly as ever but we havent approached hospital capacity and it's just human nature - you cant keep people locked up without dead bodies stacking up. It's impossible.
We have also bought ourselves some time with this first wave flattened curve.
Keegan99 said:
https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.htmlv
Yeah I'm aware that summertime isn't a panacea. Hopefully it helps a little bit. We need all of the help we can get.
I'm very hopeful that viral remedies are in place and mass produced by this fall to cut the death rate way down.
and what did you do with that time to keep the spread down going into summer?
nada
and what are we going to do when it does start to overwhelm hospital capacity due to lifted restrictions? what was the last month for?
I get it. a collapsed economy is worse than 150k plus dead. but don't pretend like we're ready for what's coming. we completely squandered the Feb-Apr window. a lot of people of working age are going to end up dead. that's the cost of living in the world's economic engine for consumption.
nada
and what are we going to do when it does start to overwhelm hospital capacity due to lifted restrictions? what was the last month for?
I get it. a collapsed economy is worse than 150k plus dead. but don't pretend like we're ready for what's coming. we completely squandered the Feb-Apr window. a lot of people of working age are going to end up dead. that's the cost of living in the world's economic engine for consumption.
so it's deadly
contagious
we don't have any way to monitor the spread outside of hospital admissions
by the time we start getting close to hospital capacity, it's too late due to the incubation spread and the contagiousness
but we hope it's going to be okay and what else is there to do
oh and hospitals didn't get overrun during the shelter in place, so we'll be okay when that's lifted because we know how the social distancing knob works across the full range and we can just dial it in to a slight margin below the hospital capacity while dealing with the populist backlash on restrictions
or we can just call it what it's going to be - you're on your own. if you get it, tough titty. if you're old and die, well then you should have been more careful and you were on borrowed time anyways. and if you're young and die, well that's the cost of being a productive American citizen.
contagious
we don't have any way to monitor the spread outside of hospital admissions
by the time we start getting close to hospital capacity, it's too late due to the incubation spread and the contagiousness
but we hope it's going to be okay and what else is there to do
oh and hospitals didn't get overrun during the shelter in place, so we'll be okay when that's lifted because we know how the social distancing knob works across the full range and we can just dial it in to a slight margin below the hospital capacity while dealing with the populist backlash on restrictions
or we can just call it what it's going to be - you're on your own. if you get it, tough titty. if you're old and die, well then you should have been more careful and you were on borrowed time anyways. and if you're young and die, well that's the cost of being a productive American citizen.
So then what's your realistic proposal for the playbook going forward?
realistic as what's going to happen?
a lot of people are going to die, a lot of working age people at that. and we're going to deal with it.
that seems to be the populist demand. get back to work. if you're young and you get sick, well that certainly does suck.
if mass surveillance testing isn't possible, then the government officials need to level with us. we need to know that a signficant death event is required to get through this without collapsing the world economy. we need to know that there's no middle way in the offing.
a lot of people are going to die, a lot of working age people at that. and we're going to deal with it.
that seems to be the populist demand. get back to work. if you're young and you get sick, well that certainly does suck.
if mass surveillance testing isn't possible, then the government officials need to level with us. we need to know that a signficant death event is required to get through this without collapsing the world economy. we need to know that there's no middle way in the offing.
No. If you were given the reigns to shaping policy towards fighting this virus for the next X amount of time, what direction would you take the policy. "Realistically" meaning given the current constraints (lack of testing, unlikelihood of SK-style surveillance testing, etc)
you mean how would i make chicken salad out of chicken *****
before i ask, is lack of testing a real constraint? because Gov. Abbott hasn't indicated as much. he's been saying for weeks that our testing is going to be ramping up and yet we're flat. in fact, we're almost dead last in testing per capita.
so if we can't test or can't scale, then that would be useful news to prepare us for what will be a quicker and larger than expected second wave.
my prediction - we'll hand wave the testing capacity until it's too late and then we'll attempt to power through the bad days (cost of doing business) and say testing amidst an ongoing epidemic isn't useful (because it isn't - you want to surveil to prevent the epidemic).
before i ask, is lack of testing a real constraint? because Gov. Abbott hasn't indicated as much. he's been saying for weeks that our testing is going to be ramping up and yet we're flat. in fact, we're almost dead last in testing per capita.
so if we can't test or can't scale, then that would be useful news to prepare us for what will be a quicker and larger than expected second wave.
my prediction - we'll hand wave the testing capacity until it's too late and then we'll attempt to power through the bad days (cost of doing business) and say testing amidst an ongoing epidemic isn't useful (because it isn't - you want to surveil to prevent the epidemic).
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DadHammer said:
Yes it is.
As soon an individual gets laid off, their outlook on the lockdown is going to change quickly.
Also true for those who lose a friend or family member.
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cone said:
and what did you do with that time to keep the spread down going into summer?
nada
and what are we going to do when it does start to overwhelm hospital capacity due to lifted restrictions? what was the last month for?
Pretty much how I see it. We absolutely wasted this SIP time and are in no better shape from a preparedness situation than we were.
Sounds like we want to just say screw it and go back to status quo without having prepared much at all. It's frustrating
That is something like 6000 to 1 so ...Player To Be Named Later said:DadHammer said:
Yes it is.
As soon an individual gets laid off, their outlook on the lockdown is going to change quickly.
Also true for those who lose a friend or family member.
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So, Tough **** right?
frustrating to say the least
i wish they'd be honest about how screwed we are
i wish they'd be honest about how screwed we are
Here's the thing, they really don't know. It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
I lost a family member to heart disease a few years ago. It did not change my views on locking the entire country down to address the crisis that is heart disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
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When did heart disease start getting spread through the air? You'd make a better point if you didn't start off with such a ridiculous straw man.Palovic said:
I lost a family member to heart disease a few years ago. It did not change my views on locking the entire country down to address the crisis that is heart disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
Player To Be Named Later said:When did heart disease start getting spread through the air? You'd make a better point if you didn't start off with such a ridiculous straw man.Palovic said:
I lost a family member to heart disease a few years ago. It did not change my views on locking the entire country down to address the crisis that is heart disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
What does transmission have to do with disease severity? Are you saying since tt isn't airborne, it is not a serious issue?
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If you're going to honestly compare being concerned about a respiratory virus that spread from person to person through the air to heart disease that has absolutely 0 spread between people and that anyone thinking we should be cautious about how we open things back up due to Covid should also have apply the same logic to heart disease, then we really aren't going to get very far having an honest conversation.Palovic said:Player To Be Named Later said:When did heart disease start getting spread through the air? You'd make a better point if you didn't start off with such a ridiculous straw man.Palovic said:
I lost a family member to heart disease a few years ago. It did not change my views on locking the entire country down to address the crisis that is heart disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
What does transmission have to do with disease severity? Do you are saying zinc dit isn't airborne, it is not a serious issue?
It's this kind of nonsense that has probably driven away a lot of the doctors from this forum. I'm noticing a significant drop in posts from the medical guys on this forum. I'd imagine a lot of it has to do with this kind of stuff and an overall plummet in general decorum.
Unfortunately this board, which started out as an amazing place to get insight from the medical folks on the front lines of this, has turned into the same mess that most internet forums generally seem to devolve to anymore. If I was them, I wouldn't want to come in here anymore either.
What happened??Marvin said:farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
Player To Be Named Later said:If you're going to honestly compare being concerned about a respiratory virus that spread from person to person through the air to heart disease that has absolutely 0 spread between people and that anyone thinking we should be cautious about how we open things back up due to Covid should also have apply the same logic to heart disease, then we really aren't going to get very far having an honest conversation.Palovic said:Player To Be Named Later said:When did heart disease start getting spread through the air? You'd make a better point if you didn't start off with such a ridiculous straw man.Palovic said:
I lost a family member to heart disease a few years ago. It did not change my views on locking the entire country down to address the crisis that is heart disease.
Over 30 million people suffer from this disease and on average +1800 die every day due to this disease over the course of an entire year and it continues to rise every year. Soon we will have over 800,000 people die ever year from this disease if we are not already there.
I have yet to see anyone on this board screaming to shut down the economy to save everyone from this rampant disease.
What does transmission have to do with disease severity? Do you are saying zinc dit isn't airborne, it is not a serious issue?
I will agree that we will not be able to have an honest conversation from the comments you are making.
You made it a point to bring up families will have a different perception if they have a member die to another post. People unfortunately die everyday from a variety of causes and you comment reads as this virus is the only one (because it is passed via airborne transmission) that should require lockdowns and draconian measures to save every single person, but forget the diseases that are not transmissable person to person even if they are orders of magnitude just as deadly as any other disease for Americans.
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I've lost family members to heart disease, and cancer.
Of course I wouldn't push for any type of shelter in place or "lock downs" because that would be pretty pointless.
I can't go to an NFL game and spread heart disease or cancer to 3 people sitting around me. You're making a ridiculous comparison.
Of course I wouldn't push for any type of shelter in place or "lock downs" because that would be pretty pointless.
I can't go to an NFL game and spread heart disease or cancer to 3 people sitting around me. You're making a ridiculous comparison.
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