As long as you are comfortable being wrong and looking like some kinda of Johnny Tough Guy, that's fine. The majority of folks find you to be a selfish *****.SirLurksALot said:Player To Be Named Later said:You know the point of wearing a mask isn't to protect yourself, but rather to prevent asymptomatic folks from spreading virus before they are feeling symptoms.SirLurksALot said:Marvin said:Aust Ag said:What happened??Marvin said:farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
Glad to hear that the majority of people still aren't cowards.
So, you could rephrase that to read "Glad to hear that the majority of people are just selfish dicks and don't care about possibly infecting someone else"
This is what I really don't understand. Your crowd tells people that we should open everything up but isn't willing to even give an inch to prevent things from breaking out again. It really shouldn't surprise me that our society isn't willing to remotely find a middle ground, but I am a bit surprised that college educated folks can't realize that there is a middle between both extremes that probably is reasonable.
If we're going to call people that don't wear a mask "idiots". Then I'm fine calling people that do wear them cowards.
Updated IHME model now predicts only 957 deaths in Texas
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As someone who is generally on your side of the equation in terms of opening things back up and a government not getting too powerful with forced shut downs, I think you're being very short sighted here. Wearing a mask right now is by no means cowardly.
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Yes. That has been one of my biggest problems with this. Lots of mom and pop type small businesses forced to shut down while most of the big businesses were somehow deemed "essential" and allowed to carry on. That has been frustrating to see.beerad12man said:
There are VERY FEW that are 100% all in like he seems to be. Please don't start believing that everyone wants to open it back up doesn't want to budge an inch.
I believe we should open back up(never should have had mandatory shut downs where some random businesses remain open while others are forced to call it quits when it isn't even clearly defined, but that's another point). But MOST of us who want it opened back up still believe that many precautions should be in place and that we should not go back to 100% like it was December 2019 just yet. Limit people indoors per square footage, 6+ feet in lines, masks to be worn indoors in public, house gathering/party sizes to 10, 20 or whatever a reasonable number is, nursing homes off limits, and then just encouraging frequent hand-washing and general safety tips, etc. I don't think those are unreasonable as opposed to the current forced shut downs we are in now. Texas would have no doubt stayed under the curve simply doing those few things with some increased hygiene.
everything is a what if, so that's tautalogical
but every potential outcome isn't random, which is what i'm arguing
is a 2nd wave likely? based on how many people haven't gotten it, recent news from places that got it before us, and historic experience, i would say it's very likely
is surveillance testing going to be available by the them we open up based on this board's (and an increasing vocal part of the public) demands - no, it's not. we're getting back 20% positives in current testing. we will not have a baseline of low positive percentages before we make the transition.
so the constellation of events leading to the what if isn't random - it's likely
so we argue about the consequences associated - you say it's going to be fine. don't be so negative. i say we've got a novel pathogen, we don't know long-term consequences of having the disease, we will be doing things that we didn't prior to March (masks, paranoia, even low volumes of testing, etc - all good to mitigate spread), but we we'll effectively be tracking outbreaks and epidemic spread via the hospitalization rates, a reactive posture. my opinion is that sort of reactive approach puts you at elevated and not dismissable risk for an epidemic, something looking like Seattle per se. so if that's a possibility, would the response be to have another prolonged shelter in place, or are we going to power through it? because what i'm reading on here is completely dismissive of a need for another shutdown but yet not outrage over the sort of layered protection needed to keep that from occuring.
as far as the Astros, if you want to discuss any of that, hit me up in the DMs. otherwise, address the concerns on here at least of something that actually matters (as opposed to professional sports drama).
but every potential outcome isn't random, which is what i'm arguing
is a 2nd wave likely? based on how many people haven't gotten it, recent news from places that got it before us, and historic experience, i would say it's very likely
is surveillance testing going to be available by the them we open up based on this board's (and an increasing vocal part of the public) demands - no, it's not. we're getting back 20% positives in current testing. we will not have a baseline of low positive percentages before we make the transition.
so the constellation of events leading to the what if isn't random - it's likely
so we argue about the consequences associated - you say it's going to be fine. don't be so negative. i say we've got a novel pathogen, we don't know long-term consequences of having the disease, we will be doing things that we didn't prior to March (masks, paranoia, even low volumes of testing, etc - all good to mitigate spread), but we we'll effectively be tracking outbreaks and epidemic spread via the hospitalization rates, a reactive posture. my opinion is that sort of reactive approach puts you at elevated and not dismissable risk for an epidemic, something looking like Seattle per se. so if that's a possibility, would the response be to have another prolonged shelter in place, or are we going to power through it? because what i'm reading on here is completely dismissive of a need for another shutdown but yet not outrage over the sort of layered protection needed to keep that from occuring.
as far as the Astros, if you want to discuss any of that, hit me up in the DMs. otherwise, address the concerns on here at least of something that actually matters (as opposed to professional sports drama).
IHME folks getting pushback on their modeling methodology.
Link: Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say
Link: Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say
Quote:
There are two tried-and-true ways to model an epidemic. The most established, dating back a century, calculates how many people are susceptible to a virus (in the case of the new coronavirus, everyone), how many become exposed, how many of those become infected, and how many recover and therefore have immunity (at least for a while). Such "SEIR" models then use what researchers know about a virus's behavior, such as how easily it spreads and how long it takes for symptoms of infection to appear, to calculate how long it takes for people to move from susceptible to infected to recovered (or dead).
"The fundamental concept of infectious disease epidemiology is that infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people," Lipsitch said.
Newer, "agent-based models" are like the video game SimCity, but with a rampaging pathogen: using computing power unimagined even a decade ago, they simulate the interactions of millions of individuals as they work, play, travel, and otherwise go about their lives. Both of these approaches have often nailed projections of, for instance, U.S. cases of seasonal flu.
IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn't even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn't try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.
Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain. It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and falling as the epidemic exploded and then dissipated in those cities, resulting in a bell curve. Then (to oversimplify somewhat) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve. The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S., too, with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere, especially Wuhan.
I should also add, that if it wasn't mandatory here in Austin, then I wouldn't have worn it (didn't the week before). But if almost everybody is, it makes it easier to do. Yep, I felt dopey and probably looked ridic, but so did everyone else, you know? And I pulled that thing off as soon as I left the store, like someone that had a gag in their mouth in a crime movie.CowtownAg06 said:My experience in Houston as been over 50% having masks at grocery stores.Aust Ag said:I"m guessing in Houston? Thinking the mandatory masks thing is coming soon. Enacted in Austin last week, went to Home Depot yesterday and I'd say 90% compliance.Marvin said:Aust Ag said:What happened??Marvin said:farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
or even get moved to outrage that we're spending trillions on this crisis, but the lack of surveillance testing infrastructure is something we won't pick up pitchforks overQuote:
Your crowd tells people that we should open everything up but isn't willing to even give an inch to prevent things from breaking out again.
i want to get back to work, too. but the approach to surveillance to bring things online seems completely negligent (or better yet, they are happy talking us about how they're going to ramp things up - knowing they can't deliver on the promises). and yet no one outside of an increasing minority even cares about that layer of protection?
it's not a panacea, no doubt. but no surveillance/mitigation step is. that's what you have to have multiple layers of protection rely upon. you take one away (especially a step that contributes meaningful data) and you're at elevated risk for having to do things you absolutely don't want to do again.
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Look at it this way. Which would make you feel more dopey or "ridic"..... wearing a mask, or knowing you had been an asymptomatic carrier for about a week and possibly giving it to who knows how many people before you felt ill?Aust Ag said:I should also add, that if it wasn't mandatory here in Austin, then I wouldn't have worn it (didn't the week before). But if almost everybody is, it makes it easier to do. Yep, I felt dopey and probably looked ridic, but so did everyone else, you know? And I pulled that thing off as soon as I left the store, like someone that had a gag in their mouth in a crime movie.CowtownAg06 said:My experience in Houston as been over 50% having masks at grocery stores.Aust Ag said:I"m guessing in Houston? Thinking the mandatory masks thing is coming soon. Enacted in Austin last week, went to Home Depot yesterday and I'd say 90% compliance.Marvin said:Aust Ag said:What happened??Marvin said:farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
This explains why it barfs when given a dataset for a state like Wyoming.
There aren't any comparables, so it just sort of throws up its hands and makes a SWAG.
There aren't any comparables, so it just sort of throws up its hands and makes a SWAG.
Player To Be Named Later said:As long as you are comfortable being wrong and looking like some kinda of Johnny Tough Guy, that's fine. The majority of folks find you to be a selfish *****.SirLurksALot said:Player To Be Named Later said:You know the point of wearing a mask isn't to protect yourself, but rather to prevent asymptomatic folks from spreading virus before they are feeling symptoms.SirLurksALot said:Marvin said:Aust Ag said:What happened??Marvin said:farmrag said:
It just depends on what percentage of our population are idiots. More idiots = more deaths.
After going to the grocery store in Houston this afternoon, I'm confident in saying the percentage is very high...
1 in 10 wore masks, and social distancing was observed only at the registers. People were in each other's spaces all over the store.
Glad to hear that the majority of people still aren't cowards.
So, you could rephrase that to read "Glad to hear that the majority of people are just selfish dicks and don't care about possibly infecting someone else"
This is what I really don't understand. Your crowd tells people that we should open everything up but isn't willing to even give an inch to prevent things from breaking out again. It really shouldn't surprise me that our society isn't willing to remotely find a middle ground, but I am a bit surprised that college educated folks can't realize that there is a middle between both extremes that probably is reasonable.
If we're going to call people that don't wear a mask "idiots". Then I'm fine calling people that do wear them cowards.
In general, I don't care what people I don't know think. They'll get over it though. My guess is 10 years from now, history classes will be talking a lot more about the mass hysteria than the virus it's sell.
beerad12man said:
As someone who is generally on your side of the equation in terms of opening things back up and a government not getting too powerful with forced shut downs, I think you're being very short sighted here. Wearing a mask right now is by no means cowardly.
The comment was directed at people calling people who don't wear masks idiots. Do you agree with that sentiment?
Just FYI I don't think I ever said I wouldn't wear a mask.
Nvm
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For someone who "doesn't care" you sure are pounding away with the replies here
Player To Be Named Later said:
For someone who "doesn't care" you sure are pounding away with the replies here
Currently recovering from surgery in a hospital. I don't have much else to do.
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That aptly describes most of us..... minus the hospital part. Most of us on here have entirely too much time on our hands. That probably isn't helping these "discussions".SirLurksALot said:Player To Be Named Later said:
For someone who "doesn't care" you sure are pounding away with the replies here
Currently recovering from surgery in a hospital. I don't have much else to do.
Speedy recovery
Duncan Idaho said:SirLurksALot said:Duncan Idaho said:SirLurksALot said:beerad12man said:
As someone who is generally on your side of the equation in terms of opening things back up and a government not getting too powerful with forced shut downs, I think you're being very short sighted here. Wearing a mask right now is by no means cowardly.
And not wearing a mask does not make you an idiot.
No. Just a selfish child
Cool. I guess it's better to be selfish than a busybody hypochondriac.
It is your soul and your burden to carry knowing that your vanity is literally going to kill people. If not through you direct action but through the actions of those that are you and say "yeah that guy is right, **** this moderate inconvenience of wearing a mask to help the economy rebound by reducing transmission and increasing consumer confidence, thereby helping myself and my family"
Wow, I didn't know I had that much sway over other people that I can changer their behavior by simply not wearing a mask. What other powers do I have?
Player To Be Named Later said:That aptly describes most of us..... minus the hospital part. Most of us on here have entirely too much time on our hands. That probably isn't helping these "discussions".SirLurksALot said:Player To Be Named Later said:
For someone who "doesn't care" you sure are pounding away with the replies here
Currently recovering from surgery in a hospital. I don't have much else to do.
Speedy recovery
I agree.
Just for the record I never said I wouldn't wear a mask. My post was directed at posters who called non mask wears idiots.
I will wear a mask if the establishment I am entering requires it or if I am going some place where there is likely to be a high poplulation or at risk people. Other than that then no, I'm not wearing one.
And thank you. Stay safe brother.
Yeah that is a bit much, he is not literally killing people.
Again this is not a death sentence. There is less than 1% mortality under 60. That means that the risk pop is close to 65 million out of 325 million of that population 10% might be fatal. So no he will not be laying waste to humanity.
I get it, we need to be careful, we need to keep distance, wear mask in public etc... but this is NOT the end of times, the streets will not be running in blood of the innocent, it is a pandemic that we are slowly getting under control, with hotspots that will have large numbers due to environment and the vast majority of the country with much lower numbers also due to environment. Just as Wyoming is not New York, Texas is not Italy.
Again this is not a death sentence. There is less than 1% mortality under 60. That means that the risk pop is close to 65 million out of 325 million of that population 10% might be fatal. So no he will not be laying waste to humanity.
I get it, we need to be careful, we need to keep distance, wear mask in public etc... but this is NOT the end of times, the streets will not be running in blood of the innocent, it is a pandemic that we are slowly getting under control, with hotspots that will have large numbers due to environment and the vast majority of the country with much lower numbers also due to environment. Just as Wyoming is not New York, Texas is not Italy.
Easy come, Easy go
As a doctor very involved in trying to prepare for the effects of this epidemic, and having spent lots of time in meetings using modeling to discuss the right responses (including with epidemiologist at A&M), I found this article very helpful.
As it stands, it appears our social distancing efforts have been very helpful in limiting the deaths from this infection, but there is still so much data we need.
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/
As it stands, it appears our social distancing efforts have been very helpful in limiting the deaths from this infection, but there is still so much data we need.
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/
Latest IMHE projection update is now live:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
Interesting analysis of key findings from today's release here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
Interesting analysis of key findings from today's release here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Still projecting 243 deaths in Wyoming.
With 118 by May 1st.
With 118 by May 1st.
Keegan99 said:
Based on...?
Based on the fact too few have antibodies there seems a peek isn't this weekend.
Double Diamond said:Keegan99 said:
Based on...?
Based on the fact too few have antibodies there seems a peek isn't this weekend.
That's not really how this works. If we maintain social distancing this thing WILL peak and subside.
And the peak in Texas was last weekend.
caveat
present level of distancing
present level of distancing
Exactly. It's pretty much agreed upon by all sides that cases will increase after quarantine is released.cone said:
caveat
present level of distancing
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
This model continually misses the mark overestimating the number of deaths per day and then the numbers escalate in future estimates in spite of observed numbers (I have been tracking the estimates from this model since 3/27).
The opposite has been actually been happening nationally and around the world, due to the model trying to force a curve fit.MaroonDontRun said:
This model continually misses the mark overestimating the number of deaths per day and then the numbers escalate in future estimates in spite of observed numbers (I have been tracking the estimates from this model since 3/27).
Read that whole thread if you want to be educated on some of the issues with the model.
So many Chicken Littles, so little time.
I think many of you need to head back to the Politics forum. You are ruining this forum. Notice how the MDs are coming around less often.....it's because of you.
Sorry if this has been discussed...but are mask now available for purchase in stores or online?
Philippians 4:13
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murphyag said:
I think many of you need to head back to the Politics forum. You are ruining this forum. Notice how the MDs are coming around less often.....it's because of you.
Agreed. This board was awesome in the beginning. A lot of folks have turned this into just another internet cesspool.
I think we are getting to the point where we can open up Texas (and most places) if people maintain social distancing and wear masks.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/
The chart in that link shows that we don't even need very effective masks in order to push the R under 1. If 60% of the population wears 60% effective masks then COVID-19 is gone. At least wear a bandanna if nothing else. People don't need to walk around in N95 masks, that is overkill.
I'm pretty optimistic. We didn't hit anywhere near the worst case models. It is starting to appear that COVID-19 has a mortality rate of less than 1% (perhaps much less so depending on antibody tests). Cases are starting to flatten in most places. Doctors are getting better are treatment. It sucks but I am at least putting on a bandanna when I go to the store. 2020 is going to suck but the United States has been through this before, this isn't permanent.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/
The chart in that link shows that we don't even need very effective masks in order to push the R under 1. If 60% of the population wears 60% effective masks then COVID-19 is gone. At least wear a bandanna if nothing else. People don't need to walk around in N95 masks, that is overkill.
I'm pretty optimistic. We didn't hit anywhere near the worst case models. It is starting to appear that COVID-19 has a mortality rate of less than 1% (perhaps much less so depending on antibody tests). Cases are starting to flatten in most places. Doctors are getting better are treatment. It sucks but I am at least putting on a bandanna when I go to the store. 2020 is going to suck but the United States has been through this before, this isn't permanent.
Quote:
I think we are getting to the point where we can open up Texas (and most places) if people maintain social distancing and wear masks.
Therein lies your problem
Without legal enforcement and strong social shaming (neither of which will happen without a significant body count) you won't have enough people wearing masks to make them beneficial enough to keep this under control.
If you believe the number of 60% compliance is what we need, we got there without mandatory compliance in central Houston. I've been to both HEB and Lowes in the past two weeks and think it's easily 60% masked and growing.Duncan Idaho said:Quote:
I think we are getting to the point where we can open up Texas (and most places) if people maintain social distancing and wear masks.
Therein lies your problem
Without legal enforcement and strong social shaming (neither of which will happen without a significant body count) you won't have enough people wearing masks to make them beneficial enough to keep this under control.
aggieduke said:
Sorry if this has been discussed...but are mask now available for purchase in stores or online?
Philippians 4:13
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