Dad-O-Lot said:

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Just checked the Hays County Dashboard, they have now logged another 142 positive cases today.

This makes 377 new cases since 6/11. In the 5 days prior to 6/11, there were 94 new cases.


Days 5 - 16 post start of protests -- 484 cases

Days 5 - 18 post start of Memorial Day Weekend -- 195 cases

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Have they done contact tracing on these cases to determine where they were likely exposed?

This also raises the question of asymptomatic spread. If the spread started on Memorial Day weekend, these cases could be people who were exposed based on contact with an asymptomatic carrier who was exposed over Memorial Day weekend.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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Just checked the Hays County Dashboard, they have now logged another 142 positive cases today.

This makes 377 new cases since 6/11. In the 5 days prior to 6/11, there were 94 new cases.


Days 5 - 16 post start of protests -- 484 cases

Days 5 - 18 post start of Memorial Day Weekend -- 195 cases

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Dad 0 Lot there were 54 more cases yesterday added

KlinkerAg11 said:

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What's the average age of the infected?

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The largest age group is 20 to 29 -- 283 cases.

Next highest is 30 to 39 with 107 cases.

Hays covid dashboard

The age demographic data has apparently not been updated since Saturday -- it only accounts for 673 cases. There are now an additional 196 cases

If my math is correct, based on the data for the 673 cases noted as of Saturday, and assuming an even distribution of ages within each range, and using 5 to 95 as the range of ages what I calculate is:

mean = 37.5 years
median - 50 years
mode = 20 - 29

The Fall Guy said:

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Dad-O-Lot said:

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Just checked the Hays County Dashboard, they have now logged another 142 positive cases today.

This makes 377 new cases since 6/11. In the 5 days prior to 6/11, there were 94 new cases.


Days 5 - 16 post start of protests -- 484 cases

Days 5 - 18 post start of Memorial Day Weekend -- 195 cases

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Dad 0 Lot there were 54 more cases yesterday added

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Yes, I included those in my numbers.

Proposition Joe said:

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I guess I'm not understanding why some are dead set on determining if this was a spike from large groups gathering on Memorial Day or large groups gathering in protest.

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I don't understand that either. Doesn't make any difference. A positive test result is a positive test result. Source of infection doesn't change that fact.

Proposition Joe said:

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I guess I'm not understanding why some are dead set on determining if this was a spike from large groups gathering on Memorial Day or large groups gathering in protest.

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There is comfort in the unknown.

If it is the result of memorial day, then a certain groups will have to come to terms with their actions.

If it is from the protests, then another group will have to do the same.

Without answer that question, we can all just point the finger at each other. And everyone can say "I dont take responsibility at all."

We will know more today. A bar I frequented last week closed because 2 employees positive. They were Asymptomatic. On day 6 now of my self quarantine.

Duncan Idaho said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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I guess I'm not understanding why some are dead set on determining if this was a spike from large groups gathering on Memorial Day or large groups gathering in protest.

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There is comfort in the unknown.

If it is the result of memorial day, then a certain groups will have to come to terms with their actions.

If it is from the protests, then another group will have to do the same.

Without answer that question, we can all just point the finger at each other. And everyone can say "I dont take responsibility at all."

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For me, I think it is most likely a combination of both. Lack of social distancing in both cases. I think it is the protests and Memorial Day/plus every weekday and weekend on the river and in swimming pools since then. Wherever you have lots of younger folks, either protesting or partying there will most likely be an increase in positive cases.

The chronology of the events are such that here in another week the effects will have blended together. I agree it doesn't really make a difference after the fact - the results are the same if not compounding. The rest is a debate about optics.

I'll also throw out a dissenting opinion about younger people contracting this.

Yes, there is a lower chance of fatality in that age group, but as with anything it's not a simple binary between "recovered" or death, and there remains a potential for long term effects after "recovery". Medical data has come a long way over the last couple of months and this is starting to be treated as more a disease of the blood and major organs than a respiratory virus. If you want to get to herd immunity, you do it with a vaccine. Otherwise it's rolling the dice -- do that enough and eventually you're gonna come up snake eyes.

I was just explaining the psychology of why people dont want the question answered.

But let's be honest, It is meaningless to ask the question at this point.

There are too many branches from both activities to any kind of contract tracing.

[Political comments removed. Keep those over on the Political Forum. - Staff]

Fitch said:

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The chronology of the events are such that here in another week the effects will have blended together. I agree it doesn't really make a difference after the fact - the results are the same if not compounding. The rest is a debate about optics.

I'll also throw out a dissenting opinion about younger people contracting this.

Yes, there is a lower chance of fatality in that age group, but as with anything it's not a simple binary between "recovered" or death, and there remains a potential for long term effects after "recovery". Medical data has come a long way over the last couple of months and this is starting to be treated as more a disease of the blood and major organs than a respiratory virus. If you want to get to herd immunity, you do it with a vaccine. Otherwise it's rolling the dice -- do that enough and eventually you're gonna come up snake eyes.

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To your point about the potential for long term effects after recovery. To really work about this we need a solid definitely of long term effects.

If we're talking about shortness of breath and fatigue lasting a really long tome after recovery, what % of cases is that.

If we're taking about organs being permanently limited in function, like some of the stories we heard of with people who had renal failure, what percentage of cases is that?

I think your concern is one not being talked about, but how prevalent is it, as it seems to be only in serious cases, which are already hospitalized?

All fair questions, but given the newness of this and the focus of deaths/recoveries I don't know that there's any great data sources to look to.

My suspicion is "not a lot" but admittedly don't have any insight one way or the other. Hospitalization data probably provides a directional lens where you might suspect ICU admits will have longer term issues.

nm

Proposition Joe said:

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I guess I'm not understanding why some are dead set on determining if this was a spike from large groups gathering on Memorial Day or large groups gathering in protest.

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Because its a super simple explanation that needs no further research or proof. Just like blaming Mardi Gras on the cases in New Orleans or Spring Break for cases in FL. A better answer would be much more nuanced and researched but we're somewhere between not being given enough information/data and not appreciating the information/data we're provided.

Fitch said:

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All fair questions, but given the newness of this and the focus of deaths/recoveries I don't know that there's any great data sources to look to.

My suspicion is "not a lot" but admittedly don't have any insight one way or the other. Hospitalization data probably provides a directional lens where you might suspect ICU admits will have longer term issues.

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Agree with you. My guess is the percentage is lower than the current death percentage.

I was only mentioning it to say I think your concern is a valid one, just at this moment, for me, it's not as big enough of a concern for decision making as I suspect it's a low percentage of the hospitalizations. To be fair, that's only based on the fact that we're not hearing it as a large concern from the media or even the CDC.

I absolutely feel terrible for anyone going through long term effects.

murphyag said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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I guess I'm not understanding why some are dead set on determining if this was a spike from large groups gathering on Memorial Day or large groups gathering in protest.

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I don't understand that either. Doesn't make any difference. A positive test result is a positive test result. Source of infection doesn't change that fact.

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It does make a difference in terms of decision making for individuals and local leaders.

As someone mentioned, people want to be BBQing and hanging out with friends all summer long. If large spikes are mainly coming from that, it impacts decision making for the citizen, not to mention local leaders who might decide to close down local outdoor areas as a result. People do want to feel safe going over to a friends house to BBQ.

If the large spikes are mainly coming from the protests, all I mentioned above seems to be more ok as hopefully major protests like we had a couple of weeks ago are generally out of the norm of life.

Wow! It's not on the Hays informed page yet but I assume since you are a mayor then you get the info first.

Dad-O-Lot said:

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Update for today:

Added 211 new cases

So between 6/14 and 6/14, 265 new cases were added.

193 of these are between 20 and 29 years old.

Only 1 additional case over 59 years old.

185 are from San Marcos

It took only 5 days to double from 469 to 938

Hospitalizations only added 1, and apparently 2 left so there are only 14 currently hospitalized from Hays County.

It will be interesting to see how quickly these 193 20 to 29 year olds recover. Hopefully it will be quick and they all recover completely.

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Agreed on all points!

Best thoughts for the leadership in your county as this all develops.

Hays County Covid Dashboard

oddly enough, the total active cases in Hays county currently sits at 666

http://www.haysinformed.org/hays-county-covid-19-update-june-15.aspx

this site says 69 cases today but still adds up to 666.

Dang...

San Marcos zip code is: 78666

The Fall Guy said:

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http://www.haysinformed.org/hays-county-covid-19-update-june-15.aspx

this site says 69 cases today but still adds up to 666.

Dang...

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I am only noting what was reported on the dashboard and yesterday was only partially completed. So between yesterday and today there were another 265 reported. On the dashboard they reported 54 yesterday, but verbally they reported more. So the 211 I note for today, includes some of what was reported verbally yesterday but not updated on the dashboard.

Hays city store closed this evening with a positive case. No symptoms.

Same with Centerfield Bar in Kyle. 2 positives but no symptoms. All in their 20's

Fitch said:

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All fair questions, but given the newness of this and the focus of deaths/recoveries I don't know that there's any great data sources to look to.

My suspicion is "not a lot" but admittedly don't have any insight one way or the other. Hospitalization data probably provides a directional lens where you might suspect ICU admits will have longer term issues.

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Typically I'd post the study rather than the news article, but it's in Dutch... It probably suffers from reporting bias, though. The stated % are just too high.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/

Quote:

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In the Netherlands, the Lung Foundation, together with the University of Maastricht and the CIRO group, surveyed 1,622 Covid-19 patients who had reported a number of long-term effects from their illness. Ninety-one percent of the patients were not hospitalized, which indicates that the vast majority of the surveyed patients would fall under the category "mildly symptomatic." The average age of the patients surveyed was 53.

Nearly 88% of patients reported persistent intense fatigue, while almost three out of four had continued shortness of breath. Other enduring symptoms included, among other things, chest pressure (45% of patients), headache and muscle ache (40% and 36%, respectively), elevated pulse (30%), and dizziness (29%). Perhaps the most startling finding was that 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves healthy prior to getting Covid-19. One or more months after getting the disease, only 6% consider themselves healthy.

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You missed my point.

I was just saying it's hard to have buy in when public messaging was poor.

Not saying anyone thing is better than the other.

bay fan said:

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You can't stop protests and those that are participating likely think they are more important than a pool party. Pretty hard to point fingers regarding messaging when our president is planning a packed mask free rally. What's the message there?

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Exactly. And when they come out soon and tell the public to stop gathering and to hunker down, why would anyone listen to them?