Ukraine's interdiction campaign and oil sanctions are definitely impacting Russia's logistics and its public financing.
"Behind the scenes, however, there is growing panic. In a letter to Putin, leaked to Russian newspaper Kommersant, the head of Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil company, Igor Sechin, called the amount of damage to Russian oil refineries "unprecedented." The government has been weighing a total ban on diesel exports to compensate for the shortages, tacit acknowledgment that it is not possible to increase production anywhere. "Let's see how the government will deal with the fuel crisis," Stanovaya added. "In some regions, it is catastrophic."
Even before prices for Russian oil, Russia's main source of revenue, plummeted to $50 per barrel following Iran's ceasefire agreement with the United States, Russia's federal budget deficit had been snowballing beyond the 3.8 trillion rubles ($48 billion) intended for all of 2026. The deficit reached 6 trillion rubles ($83 billion) by the end of May, more than double the level last year. "The budget is shaking," one Russian official said. "The deficit is enormous, and the sovereign wealth fund is almost exhausted."
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