EV sales hit the skids in 2025

9,896 Views | 218 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by BigRobSA
japantiger
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Martels Hammer said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

These Techno ag threads are gonna be funny in 10 years when half of new car sales are EVs. Range needs to climb another 20-30% and battery costs need to come down another 40-50% and that'll be it for most ICE cars' advantages over EVs. At that point, there won't be about reason to buy an ICE car like a corolla (though trucks will hold out longer).

Real question, not a snide comment pretending to be a question.

What battery chemistry looks to be able to do what you think will happen in 10 years?

It was my understanding that the current lithium ion batteries only have one free electron per molecule to convert to electricity and that the other chemistries in proposed might have two, but at the cost of a much larger heavier molecule so getting a large jump in power density didn't seem likely.

Meh, physics.
Trust the science...well, not this science. The science that says men can be women, 2 weeks to stop the spread, if you don't get the vaccine my vaccine won't work, the ice caps are gonna melt in 1995, 1998, 2001, 2006, 20015, 2020, 20XX well just trust me, et al, ad nauseum.
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
japantiger
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I would get an EV for my wife. Usage model and economics make sense.

At about age 80 for me (God willing) I think it works when I stop going off road for extended periods and the notion of self driving becomes advantageous.
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
dmart90
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AG
No Spin Ag said:

This makes all the sense in the world. Even the Google has the following, which I've been saying for years would happen, namely that Hybrids will be what people turn to since they still run on gas for road trips and are cheaper.

Quote:


In the current U.S. auto market (late 2024/2025),
hybrids are selling significantly more than fully electric vehicles (EVs), experiencing a surge as EV sales growth slows due to factors like charging concerns, high EV prices, and fading incentives, making hybrids the practical "sweet spot" for many buyers seeking efficiency without range anxiety. While EVs had strong growth, hybrids are now the leading electrified option, with some projections showing hybrids outpacing EVs by 3 to 1 in 2026




Agree with this 1000%. Bought a new F-150 with the PowerBoost engine at the end of November. Love it! It has some real giddy-up and a 500+ mile range. Now they "cheated" a little to get that range - the tank in my old F-150 was about 22 gallons - I think this one is closer to 30 gallons. But on the highway between here and Dallas I was getting 24+ mpg. Best I ever got with the EcoBoost engine was 21 mpg at highway speed.

And the Ford adaptive speed cruise control with BlueCruise is impressive tech. Turning on the signal and allowing it to change lanes on it's own with BlueCruise engaged is an interesting experience. The idea that you need an EV to have cool tech that is readily updatable is bunk.

Now - this truck was STUPID expensive. But that was my choice - no one compelled me to buy it.
Queso1
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To paraphrase Rush, Evs are the left's wet dream.
They paid for their wars with your tax dollars and also with your untaxed dollars. Inflation is theft.
GE
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Since we graduated my wife and I have owned two Jeeps, two BMWs, a Tundra, a Highlander, and a Tesla. Both of our favorite car so far by far is the Tesla. We always plan to also have an ICE but also dont see ourselves replacing the Tesla with anything but another one.
Buck Turgidson
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China has to import its oil. That makes it vulnerable to naval powers like the US. It makes more sense for China to adopt electric vehicles at scale. Luckily, we have more secure sources of oil here and aren't forced to use electric cars.
Moon Shadow
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1. One of my, In-Law, relatives drives a Tesla in Houston area.
2. All(?) Tesla's have an onboard camera.
3. His car was hit by another driver, who changed the incident's story's fault to the police. Reflecting the Tesla's owner being at fault. In law told the police, "My Tesla's camera has the entire incident recorded!"
4. Other driver potentially charged with a "false police report"!
5. He changed back to the truth!
BigRobSA
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Buck Turgidson said:

China has to import its oil. That makes it vulnerable to naval powers like the US. It makes more sense for China to adopt electric vehicles at scale. Luckily, we have more secure sources of oil here and aren't forced to use electric cars.

Add in China giving exactly zero fooks about the environment and building numerous coal-powered electric plants to build their infrastructure....that goes far in the China-EV algorithm.
doubledog
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EVs to reduce our (USA) reliance on foreign oil YES
EVs to save the environment NO
EVs for the next generation of technology YES
EVs to completely replace current technology NO
Deputy Travis Junior
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YouBet said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

It isn't utopia, but it is what's coming in the next decade. Home charging and better driving performance will push people to EVs when all else is equal.

Also, every conservative has a negative knee jerk reaction against anything green these days because liberals used omg climate as a dictatorial cudgel for decades, but there are actual, REAL benefits to it. Look at pictures of LA in the 70s or go visit Mexico City today. Smog and pollution are nasty and measurably reduce your quality of life. Fission + EVs is a much better future.

Sure, but let the market take us there - not the government. We wasted the last 5-6 years on EV's based on b.s.


I mostly agree, but I don't really care about tax credits. Looking at the drone warfare between Ukraine and Russia, it's clear that battery and electrical technology will be vitally important to our national security in the future . If the government wants to collect fewer tax dollars if you buy an EV and in so doing help the US build up its R&D, manufacturing know-how, and expertise in this area, whatever.
sam callahan
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Quote:

Why does every device we own have a battery strength level indicator except our ICE vehicles?



cecil77
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AG
Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.
Farmer_J
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

It isn't utopia, but it is what's coming in the next decade. Home charging and better driving performance will push people to EVs when all else is equal.



Driving performance is a whole other topic. Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.

I fully expect insurance wiill be prohibitively expensive for an ice vehicle. I've been to the body shop twice last year for fender benders, and it is ridiculous what it cost to make even minor repairs.
lb3
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rynning said:

I can support subsidies if they are helping the US get ahead in a new market or technology, but that's it. If it's viable, it should be able to stand on its own at some point.

I understand that 30% federal tax credit for residential solar panels is finally going away after being around for almost 50 years! No subsidy should be in place that long.
Unfortunately those subsidies had no requirement for domestic production. As a result, we gave most of that money to the Chinese, they have a 98% market share on silicone wafers used in solar cells and 85% market share in panels.
Logos Stick
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Buck Turgidson said:

China has to import its oil. That makes it vulnerable to naval powers like the US. It makes more sense for China to adopt electric vehicles at scale. Luckily, we have more secure sources of oil here and aren't forced to use electric cars.


They also generate a huge amount of electricity using cheap coal, about 65%.

The left is insisting on wind and solar. That despite it being far more expensive because you have to build the minimum base load using hydrocarbons.
Over_ed
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Farmer_J said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

It isn't utopia, but it is what's coming in the next decade. Home charging and better driving performance will push people to EVs when all else is equal.



Driving performance is a whole other topic. Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.

I fully expect insurance wiill be prohibitively expensive for an ice vehicle. I've been to the body shop twice last year for fender benders, and it is ridiculous what it cost to make even minor repairs.


My understanding is that currently repairing EVs is usually much more expensive than ICE. And EVs much more likely to be totaled.

Where I could see insurance getting cheaper is getting consumers to agree to use FSD, which will greatly decrease the number of collisions.

But there are reasons that many will resist. For instance, even if you are willing to give up control, I believe (from a post on X last week) that you pretty much have two choices for FSD highway speed in many locations-- too fast and too slow. Again - not my personal opinion just the essence of the post.
cecil77
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Quote:

Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.


Minimized a bit, but nothing close to eliminated. Traffic jams are primarily a capacity issue. Autonomous can load balance some, but, especially in urban areas, you're going to be over capacity at times.
Logos Stick
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Good point about repair.
Kansas Kid
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cecil77 said:

Quote:

Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.


Minimized a bit, but nothing close to eliminated. Traffic jams are primarily a capacity issue. Autonomous can load balance some, but, especially in urban areas, you're going to be over capacity at times.

Capacity is part of it but most are caused by humans and reactions to other humans. For instance, a phantom issue caused driver 1 to brake check, the other cars start doing the same and it chains through the system as everyone starts the cycle of start/stops. There is another key cause which is accidents which should drop dramatically as the autonomous driving will greatly reduce accidents which are primarily caused by human error and distraction.

agracer
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Squadron7 said:

I have a related question: Why does every device we own have a battery strength level indicator except our ICE vehicles?

Voltage Gauge used to be standard equipment on cars.

Most now with newer digital gauges have an option to show voltage.
deddog
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Over_ed said:

Farmer_J said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

It isn't utopia, but it is what's coming in the next decade. Home charging and better driving performance will push people to EVs when all else is equal.



Driving performance is a whole other topic. Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.

I fully expect insurance wiill be prohibitively expensive for an ice vehicle. I've been to the body shop twice last year for fender benders, and it is ridiculous what it cost to make even minor repairs.


My understanding is that currently repairing EVs is usually much more expensive than ICE. And EVs much more likely to be totaled.

Where I could see insurance getting cheaper is getting consumers to agree to use FSD, which will greatly decrease the number of collisions.

But there are reasons that many will resist. For instance, even if you are willing to give up control, I believe (from a post on X last week) that you pretty much have two choices for FSD highway speed in many locations-- too fast and too slow. Again - not my personal opinion just the essence of the post.


Found the Lemonade rep
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lemonade-thinks-tesla-full-self-220000822.html
Quote:

Lemonade, a company that brands itself as an "insurance company built for the 21st century," is proposing that Teslas with FSD should be insured for free. Its reasoning? Computers are safer than humans.

agracer
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cecil77 said:

Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.

most American's do no change their own oil, and even if you do, it's a lot more than 20-minutes to the store, buy the oil, change the oil/filter, then return to store to dispose of the oil.
deddog
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Over_ed said:

Farmer_J said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

It isn't utopia, but it is what's coming in the next decade. Home charging and better driving performance will push people to EVs when all else is equal.



Driving performance is a whole other topic. Most traffic jams can be eliminated or reduced once enough autonomous vehicles get on the road.

I fully expect insurance wiill be prohibitively expensive for an ice vehicle. I've been to the body shop twice last year for fender benders, and it is ridiculous what it cost to make even minor repairs.


My understanding is that currently repairing EVs is usually much more expensive than ICE. And EVs much more likely to be totaled.

Where I could see insurance getting cheaper is getting consumers to agree to use FSD, which will greatly decrease the number of collisions.

But there are reasons that many will resist. For instance, even if you are willing to give up control, I believe (from a post on X last week) that you pretty much have two choices for FSD highway speed in many locations-- too fast and too slow. Again - not my personal opinion just the essence of the post.

Repairs definitely more expensive, but less likely.
Accidents can result in total loss. For these reasons, insurance is actually a lot more expensive on EVs.

However, routine maintenance and random shi$ going wrong (hello Ford Edge/Explorer) is practically non-existent.

FSD on my TSLA shows the following modes:
Sloth
Slow
Standard
Hurry
Mad Max
Kansas Kid
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agracer said:

cecil77 said:

Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.

most American's do no change their own oil, and even if you do, it's a lot more than 20-minutes to the store, buy the oil, change the oil/filter, then return to store to dispose of the oil.

Only place I know where you can get a 20 min oil change is a pace like Jiffy Lube. I know a number of people that have had major issues like cross threaded plugs, insufficient or too much oil installed, oil filter not replaced, etc to ever go to them. Going to a regular maintenance shop is 1 hour min these days plus the driving too and from. I went full synthetic oil so I only have to do it once per year because it is a pain in the butt.
rab79
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If you make a special trip to buy oil for your scheduled oil change you are doing it wrong.
Logos Stick
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Kansas Kid said:

agracer said:

cecil77 said:

Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.

most American's do no change their own oil, and even if you do, it's a lot more than 20-minutes to the store, buy the oil, change the oil/filter, then return to store to dispose of the oil.

Only place I know where you can get a 20 min oil change is a pace like Jiffy Lube. I know a number of people that have had major issues like cross threaded plugs, insufficient or too much oil installed, oil filter not replaced, etc to ever go to them. Going to a regular maintenance shop is 1 hour min these days plus the driving too and from. I went full synthetic oil so I only have to do it once per year because it is a pain in the butt.


What is a "regular maintenance shop"?
BigRobSA
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rab79 said:

If you make a special trip to buy oil for your scheduled oil change you are doing it wrong.

Yep

I have an oil derrick to garage line prepped just for that.

LOLPoors!
bobbranco
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YouBet said:

bobbranco said:

Ford bet wrong. $20B wrong.


Yes, and that bet had the heavy thumb of Democrat policy making on it.

Bill Ford drank all the kool-aid then encouraged and advocated for said policy.
cecil77
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agracer said:

cecil77 said:

Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.

most American's do no change their own oil, and even if you do, it's a lot more than 20-minutes to the store, buy the oil, change the oil/filter, then return to store to dispose of the oil.


Twenty minutes refers to a quick lube place. Don't even get out of the car.
YouBet
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GAC06 said:

No Spin Ag said:

YouBet said:

Hybrids were always the natural evolutionary next step from ICE vehicles. Biden and EU leaders manipulated markets to bypass that step in the name of mythological green energy and policy.

As a result, they have directly caused the average price of a new car to hit $50K in this country. Great job, Democrats. Yet again, making life unaffordable for average Americans.

FTR, I have no issues with EVs. They have a use case that makes sense for some. It makes sense for me. However, I would rather have a V8 sports car which will be my next purchase in 2027, if at all possible.

Yeah, nothing beats the roar and torque that a V8 gives.

Whatever you get, you need to start an "EV" thread as an excuse to brag about your new ride.


I switched from a V8 (Lexus GS-F) to an EV (Model 3 Performance) and while it doesn't "roar", it beats the ever living crap about of the V8 in torque and every other performance metric.


Sure, but I don't care to have a quiet, fast golf cart. I want the loud FU engine that is still fast as hell and fun to drive.
aggiehawg
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I have grown very weary of this debate. People who love EVs? Knock yourselves out. I don't care.

But for people for which they are completely unsuited, such as rural folks who actually tow things, people who live in very cold climates, eff off about EVs.

I am reminded of many years ago, lived in Austin, at a Target around Christmas time, Had my SUV in the parking lot, Popped the back door and unloaded my very full cart in a minute. But I took a bit longer lingering just to watch the gal coming back to a mini Cooper with a cart load. I didn't stay for the denouement but watched her long enough to watch her realize she had a massive problem.

Anyone remember when owning a PU truck meant you were the one helping everyone move in college? (Well if you were a chick and didn't have a PU truck. I borrowed my grandpa's long bed truck a few times but then had more male "friends" with trucks.)

Yeah, there was a reason for that. Vehicle for the job.
lb3
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bobbranco said:

YouBet said:

bobbranco said:

Ford bet wrong. $20B wrong.


Yes, and that bet had the heavy thumb of Democrat policy making on it.

Bill Ford drank all the kool-aid then encouraged and advocated for said policy.
I don't know how much of that was lip service to appease the then administration.
Kansas Kid
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aggiehawg said:

I have grown very weary of this debate. People who love EVs? Knock yourselves out. I don't care.

But for people for which they are completely unsuited, such as rural folks who actually tow things, people who live in very cold climates, eff off about EVs.

I am reminded of many years ago, lived in Austin, at a Target around Christmas time, Had my SUV in the parking lot, Popped the back door and unloaded my very full cart in a minute. But I took a bit longer lingering just to watch the gal coming back to a mini Cooper with a cart load. I didn't stay for the denouement but watched her long enough to watch her realize she had a massive problem.

Anyone remember when owning a PU truck meant you were the one helping everyone move in college? (Well if you were a chick and didn't have a PU truck. I borrowed my grandpa's long bed truck a few times but then had more male "friends" with trucks.)

Yeah, there was a reason for that. Vehicle for the job.

The good old days when pickups were cheap and had a large bed. Now you have no chance of getting a sofa or bed into the small beds and the prices are through the roof.
Kansas Kid
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Logos Stick said:

Kansas Kid said:

agracer said:

cecil77 said:

Decline in gasoline prices is also a factor.

The fuel cost savings is a very minimal factor in EV sales, I think. For the average American I don't think fuel cost is an issue at all. Same for oil changes. 20 minutes twice per year isn't on the radar.

most American's do no change their own oil, and even if you do, it's a lot more than 20-minutes to the store, buy the oil, change the oil/filter, then return to store to dispose of the oil.

Only place I know where you can get a 20 min oil change is a pace like Jiffy Lube. I know a number of people that have had major issues like cross threaded plugs, insufficient or too much oil installed, oil filter not replaced, etc to ever go to them. Going to a regular maintenance shop is 1 hour min these days plus the driving too and from. I went full synthetic oil so I only have to do it once per year because it is a pain in the butt.


What is a "regular maintenance shop"?

One that can do a sizable number of repairs to a vehicle as opposed to places that mostly just do oil changes, tell you you need a new air filter right after you replaced it and then do the same with windshield wipers as well.

I have a trusted mechanic for mine and even with an appointment, it takes at least an hour as the mechanics take time to bring it in, then pull the drain plug and then go back to the other jobs while it drains. Usually 30 minutes or more later, they get back to the oil change after completing the larger repair.
Teslag
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aggiehawg said:

I have grown very weary of this debate. People who love EVs? Knock yourselves out. I don't care.

But for people for which they are completely unsuited, such as rural folks who actually tow things, people who live in very cold climates, eff off about EVs.

I am reminded of many years ago, lived in Austin, at a Target around Christmas time, Had my SUV in the parking lot, Popped the back door and unloaded my very full cart in a minute. But I took a bit longer lingering just to watch the gal coming back to a mini Cooper with a cart load. I didn't stay for the denouement but watched her long enough to watch her realize she had a massive problem.

Anyone remember when owning a PU truck meant you were the one helping everyone move in college? (Well if you were a chick and didn't have a PU truck. I borrowed my grandpa's long bed truck a few times but then had more male "friends" with trucks.)

Yeah, there was a reason for that. Vehicle for the job.


It was pouring rain the other day while I was at HEB to get a few things. Everyone huddled at the entrance waiting it out. I didn't. I summoned my Tesla from the parking lot and it drove itself to the front of the store and picked me up. Too easy.

 
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