What's Trump's off ramp on Iran? Bad intel?

18,982 Views | 219 Replies | Last: 10 days ago by flown-the-coop
Old McDonald
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Garr3ttmj9 said:

Trump was high off his win in Venezuela and figured he was so talented that Iran would be the same. Now he's realizing this had a bigger impact than he thought and he's bitten off more than he can chew. Next step is to do what Trump does and blame someone else for his decisions.
this is the correct take. he expected a decapitation strike would make them roll over to his demands, which was obviously never going to happen. hell he even admitted he never expected them to retaliate against the other gulf states, and the hormuz issue clearly caught him off guard too (we won! we're winning! send help! we don't need your help!)

iran knows we could glass them to the stone age if we wanted to, and have obviously planned for how to draw that process out as long and as painfully as possible for us.
Bucketrunner
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Stressboy gets it. His information should be on every newscast and every political talk show by tonight. I think rational Americans would totally be behind this action if they understood the higher implications.

Never mind the Democrats. Logical thinking is not their forte.
Old McDonald
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Dad-O-Lot said:

Has anyone considered that the "Imminent threat" from Iran was the fact that as soon as Israel started their attacks Iran would attack any US bases within range? Not that Iran had plans for a pre-emptive strike "imminently", but that it would happen as a response to Israel's attack.
setting aside for a moment that rubio's messaging for why we started the war is inconsistent with the rest of trump's cabinet, if this is true then it's admitting israel dragged us into a war we didn't want.
Enviroag02
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AG
There was no imminent threat?! Where is this BS coming from? The Iranian delegation clearly and concisely proclaimed to US representatives that they had 460 kgs of 60% enriched uranium. Anything above 2% signals they are going for a weapon as that's the level needed for nuclear power needs. The US was even willing to provide that power grade uranium which would have helped to improve Iranians lives indefinitely, but the Iranian delegation said "nope, we don't want to improve our people's lives, we want nuclear weapons". To go from 60% to 90% is about 10 days and that would be enough for 10 nuclear warheads. How's that for imminent?
deddog
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Old McDonald said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

Has anyone considered that the "Imminent threat" from Iran was the fact that as soon as Israel started their attacks Iran would attack any US bases within range? Not that Iran had plans for a pre-emptive strike "imminently", but that it would happen as a response to Israel's attack.

setting aside for a moment that rubio's messaging for why we started the war is inconsistent with the rest of trump's cabinet, if this is true then it's admitting israel dragged us into a war we didn't want.

Who's "WE"?

Democrats? When was the last time Democrats agreed with anything Trump did? Or that was good for America?

America and the world is FAR better off with a castrated Iran, and that's where we are at least.
Instead of having eunuch Presidents we now have alpha presidents kicking the **** out of our enemies. Its pathetic, but not shocking, that it gives heartburn to so many democrats, try as the might to disguise their distrust and hatred of America as "concern" for the war.
HoustonAggie11
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Enviroag02 said:

There was no imminent threat?! Where is this BS coming from? The Iranian delegation clearly and concisely proclaimed to US representatives that they had 460 kgs of 60% enriched uranium. Anything above 2% signals they are going for a weapon as that's the level needed for nuclear power needs. The US was even willing to provide that power grade uranium which would have helped to improve Iranians lives indefinitely, but the Iranian delegation said "nope, we don't want to improve our people's lives, we want nuclear weapons". To go from 60% to 90% is about 10 days and that would be enough for 10 nuclear warheads. How's that for imminent?

its the latest anti Jew, anti Trump talking point going around.
Ed Harley
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AG
Iran has to be dealt with at some point. No time like the present.
Old McDonald
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deddog said:

Old McDonald said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

Has anyone considered that the "Imminent threat" from Iran was the fact that as soon as Israel started their attacks Iran would attack any US bases within range? Not that Iran had plans for a pre-emptive strike "imminently", but that it would happen as a response to Israel's attack.

setting aside for a moment that rubio's messaging for why we started the war is inconsistent with the rest of trump's cabinet, if this is true then it's admitting israel dragged us into a war we didn't want.

Who's "WE"?

Democrats? When was the last time Democrats agreed with anything Trump did? Or that was good for America?

America and the world is FAR better off with a castrated Iran, and that's where we are at least.
Instead of having eunuch Presidents we now have alpha presidents kicking the **** out of our enemies. Its pathetic, but not shocking, that it gives heartburn to so many democrats, try as the might to disguise their distrust and hatred of America as "concern" for the war.
the war has virtually no popular support outside the MAGA base (including independents), and even they had little appetite for it until it happened and they fell in line
Teslag
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Old McDonald said:

deddog said:

Old McDonald said:

Dad-O-Lot said:

Has anyone considered that the "Imminent threat" from Iran was the fact that as soon as Israel started their attacks Iran would attack any US bases within range? Not that Iran had plans for a pre-emptive strike "imminently", but that it would happen as a response to Israel's attack.

setting aside for a moment that rubio's messaging for why we started the war is inconsistent with the rest of trump's cabinet, if this is true then it's admitting israel dragged us into a war we didn't want.

Who's "WE"?

Democrats? When was the last time Democrats agreed with anything Trump did? Or that was good for America?

America and the world is FAR better off with a castrated Iran, and that's where we are at least.
Instead of having eunuch Presidents we now have alpha presidents kicking the **** out of our enemies. Its pathetic, but not shocking, that it gives heartburn to so many democrats, try as the might to disguise their distrust and hatred of America as "concern" for the war.
the war has virtually no popular support outside the MAGA base (including independents), and even they had little appetite for it until it happened and they fell in line


Is this opinion based on polls?
aggie93
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FobTies said:

aggie93 said:


It's pathetic seeing people openly root against the US and our troops because of TDS.

Pathetic tactic. Encouraging Trump to find an off ramp and avoid a lengthy regime change war IS rooting for the US.

I guess Charlie Kirk was a bad American with TDS. Many of us are literally voicing the same concerns he did about an Iran war, and we get accused of "rooting against Troops".



We are 17 days in? Iran is in a complete disarray with their Navy and Air Force gone, their missiles just about gone, and they are putting up a cardboard cutout of their 2nd leader. Trump hasn't made this about regime change or occupying Iran. He's just going to keep going until they are no longer a threat and they get a leader that will play ball. It's very different than "Let's try to make Afghanistan into a functioning Democracy!" lunacy we did before.

Regardless we are in it now and certainly capitulating to the enemy that is barely functioning doesn't make any sense but that seems to be what you are wanting.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
mode67ag
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This is one of the times that the discussion on these boards is better than almost all media.

One thing worth repeating: our enemies can count on our weak national political will (since Vietnam).

We have become very emotive, short-term oriented society. We also do not have a national identity. Some have been successful in convincing significant parts of the electorate that they are not individual Americans but a class of people with a grievance.

Unlike past times, when Americans rallied behind the President in foreign affairs, opponents gain politically by belittling the objectives and emphasizing the costs of actions like Operation Epic Fury.

This places a premium on educating the public, messaging. Unfortunately, often statecraft must be conducted confidentially.

President Trump is a change agent in a hurry. Sometimes his messaging follows well behind his actions. There have also been times when the President has not "messaged" well.

aggie93
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FobTies said:

Ellis Wyatt said:

You know what Charlie Kirk wouldn't be doing? Railing against Donald Trump or America while we're killing terrorists.

Stop it.

You are claiming Charlie would change his mind, with no evidence or precedence to back that up. Im floating the idea Kirk would stick to his principles like Tucker, Megan Kelly, and Matt Walsh have on war with Iran.

Neither of us can know for certain. But its pretty eye opening how angry many here get having to see Charlie express his viewpoints about war with Iran.

Charlie was a legend, and he made very solid points that F16 wants to suppress and forget. Charlie would likely be rooting for exactly what I am in OP. Trump closing out EpFury like he did MidHammer. NOT "staying the course" to seize this "golden opportunity" to install a friendly regime.

No one thought it was possible to completely decapitate Iran the way we have and they are basically unable to do much of anything about it except lob a few missiles and connect with a handful of them. The key for Iran was always not to let them get nukes because at that point they would be untouchable. Trump just had the balls to call their bluff and it's working. In short order we are about to have Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran no longer as threats while there is a huge right wing surge in Latin America and China is reeling.

Hey but you can look for defeat all you want and take Charlie's thousands of hours of content and take him out of context if you want.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
FobTies
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aggie93 said:


No one thought it was possible to completely decapitate Iran the way we have and they are basically unable to do much of anything about it except lob a few missiles and connect with a handful of them.

If it ends up being a larger scale Midnight Hammer, great. The problem is that Israel now has both feet in on full scale war with Iran. When Trump admits this is Israel's war, and MAGA falls in line with that, we can move back to America First.

Until then, there is a large faction of Americans still wanting to install a new friendly Iran regime. That campaign would include aid to rebuild the growing damage Israel is taking, and probably aid to Iran too.

Its not rooting for defeat, its rooting for the US to reject the powerful Israel lobby in favor of taxpayers and our already excessive debt load.
aggie93
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FobTies said:

aggie93 said:


No one thought it was possible to completely decapitate Iran the way we have and they are basically unable to do much of anything about it except lob a few missiles and connect with a handful of them.

If it ends up being a larger scale Midnight Hammer, great. The problem is that Israel now has both feet in on full scale war with Iran. When Trump admits this is Israel's war, and MAGA falls in line with that, we can move back to America First.

Until then, there is a large faction of Americans still wanting to install a new friendly Iran regime. That campaign would include aid to rebuild the growing damage Israel is taking, and probably aid to Iran too.

Its not rooting for defeat, its rooting for the US to reject the powerful Israel lobby in favor of taxpayers and our already excessive debt load.

Israel is welcome to do the dirty work on this and they have reason to, Iran has been trying to destroy them for decades and has killed their citizens in massive numbers. We have shared interests but Israel has a greater interest. Nothing wrong with that.

Regime change would be great if it's with the right people and it looks like it likely will be. Still that isn't our objective, it's a nice to have. For Israel it is and I don't see why we need to stop them. I'm opposed to us sending money to Israel, they don't need it.

There is absolutely huge value to the US if Iran does have a regime that stops sponsoring terrorism and is allied with China and Russia. If that happens without US ground troops (or with maybe some Special Forces actions) that's absolutely a good thing. Iran was a significant ally for the US for a long time and can be again. It's a very unique country that has never been a radical Muslim country until the last 47 years. The value to us if we can reset the clock is massive. That said if the compromise is we make it so that they are neutered and can't cause us problems that's a huge win.

I do think you are correct that Israel is going to be a lot more ruthless than we are but I just haven't seen any reason why that isn't in our interest outside of some fantasy we are going to try and do Iraq Part III or something and try to get in an rebuild it ourselves but there is no indication that's the plan.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
doubledog
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FobTies said:

Its got to happen within weeks. Trump has shown us he pivots when he loses support. Looks like a new "Trump got bad intel" narrative might be birthing.

Tulsi has already posted about "Trump making the decision to go to war based on the intel in front of him." Making it clear she gave no recommendation for war. So who gets thrown under the bus? Probably Israel. Trump then goes back to his old self with "Israel doesnt know WTF they are doing".

Still time for Trump to claim the US hit all their Epic Fury targets and claim victory like Midnight Hammer. What's stopping that? Bibi and others pushing him hard to "finish the job".

Edit: "Bad intel" about an Iranian plot to attack the US. The "imminent threat" that was supposedly presented to Trump, that he then used to initiate war.

Irian "negotiators" bragging about their U235 stock pile is what I would consider "imminent threat". That was not intel, that was straight from the horses mouth.
ntxVol
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Regime change isn't happening, it would have already happened if that were an option. Trump was sold a load of bull**** on this. He's probably already looking for an exit. Must figure out how to get the strait open, I'm afraid more American blood will be spilled to make that happen.
bobbranco
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ntxVol said:

Regime change isn't happening, it would have already happened if that were an option. Trump was sold a load of bull**** on this. He's probably already looking for an exit. Must figure out how to get the strait open, I'm afraid more American blood will be spilled to make that happen.

Stench of Frenchmen around here.
richardag
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FobTies said:

Its got to happen within weeks. Trump has shown us he pivots when he loses support. Looks like a new "Trump got bad intel" narrative might be birthing.

Tulsi has already posted about "Trump making the decision to go to war based on the intel in front of him." Making it clear she gave no recommendation for war. So who gets thrown under the bus? Probably Israel. Trump then goes back to his old self with "Israel doesnt know WTF they are doing".

Still time for Trump to claim the US hit all their Epic Fury targets and claim victory like Midnight Hammer. What's stopping that? Bibi and others pushing him hard to "finish the job".

Edit: "Bad intel" about an Iranian plot to attack the US. The "imminent threat" that was supposedly presented to Trump, that he then used to initiate war.



Maybe Joe Kent debunked himself
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3597662/replies/72048499
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
MJ20/20
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AG
Their Navy isn't gone and you have no idea what's left of their air force. The above ground shot is probably gone.

drdavid10k58
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FriscoKid said:

Everyone knows there was no imminent threat. This was a once in lifetime chance to eliminate the terrorist threat that is Iran. If this forces a regime change and we get a more western Iran then it's all worth it. Even the Arab countries can't stand Iran.

Keep looking for your gotcha moment, because this ain't it.

Everyone? KNOWS?
Hyperbole much?

You claim "no imminent threat"?! Why? Because Iran is "too nice to really use a nuke?" What about "Death to (take your pick here)!" do you not understand?
ntxVol
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bobbranco said:

ntxVol said:

Regime change isn't happening, it would have already happened if that were an option. Trump was sold a load of bull**** on this. He's probably already looking for an exit. Must figure out how to get the strait open, I'm afraid more American blood will be spilled to make that happen.

Smells of a Frenchman around here.
History repeats itself, we've been here before.
Who?mikejones!
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ntxVol said:

Regime change isn't happening, it would have already happened if that were an option. Trump was sold a load of bull**** on this. He's probably already looking for an exit. Must figure out how to get the strait open, I'm afraid more American blood will be spilled to make that happen.


I dunno about "must get the strait opened." Theres a lot more to that than meets the eye.


Id say, must get the strait opened in a very particular way is more accurate
Hoyt Ag
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Rumor has it on Shawn Ryan too.
AgDad121619
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The reality of what is really happening - a lot of idiots with TDS are slurping down the talking points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/03/17/victor_davis_hanson_this_is_a_surreal_war_what_is_actually_happening_in_iran_is_not_being_reported.html
Rapier108
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BMX Bandit said:



So the real reason for his little grandstanding departure is he's just another antisemite.

Shocking...
ntxVol
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Who?mikejones! said:

ntxVol said:

Regime change isn't happening, it would have already happened if that were an option. Trump was sold a load of bull**** on this. He's probably already looking for an exit. Must figure out how to get the strait open, I'm afraid more American blood will be spilled to make that happen.


I dunno about "must get the strait opened." Theres a lot more to that than meets the eye.


Id say, must get the strait opened in a very particular way is more accurate
OK, must get the oil flowing through there, how does that sound?
Dorm 15
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AG
At this point the causa belli is not as important as the "off ramp".
Who?mikejones!
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Again, I dont think Trump is in any big rush to fully open the strait

I posted an article a couple times today giving lots of details over the strait and a lot of other things that happened before this conflict was even a thought.

Its not as simple as "world needs oil, must open strait."
ntxVol
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Who?mikejones! said:

Again, I dont think Trump is in any big rush to fully open the strait
I don't know why that would be the case but he can't exit until it's open.
aggie93
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MJ20/20 said:

Their Navy isn't gone and you have no idea what's left of their air force. The above ground shot is probably gone.



Their effective Navy is gone, all they have now are a few small ships that are being sunk easily. Unless they have a secret bunker of planes those are gone as well and it is incredibly unlikely they have anything that could even be a marginal threat to anything we have. If they put a plane in the air it would be very lucky to last 30 minutes, we have surveillance all over that country in multiple ways and complete air superiority.

So I guess if you are arguing that maybe they have a PT boat or two somewhere and maybe a hidden plane that's effectively useless and want to call that a Navy and an Air Force, ok.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Who?mikejones!
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ntxVol said:

Who?mikejones! said:

Again, I dont think Trump is in any big rush to fully open the strait
I don't know why that would be the case but he can't exit until it's open.


In summary- Leverage to get other things
zb008
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Nope, just another irrational decision by him that will prove to be costly in the midterms.
ntxVol
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Who?mikejones! said:

ntxVol said:

Who?mikejones! said:

Again, I dont think Trump is in any big rush to fully open the strait
I don't know why that would be the case but he can't exit until it's open.


In summary- Leverage to get other things
It's an interesting hypothesis, are Chinese tankers passing through there? That's a tell.
Who?mikejones!
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Some are. But, from what ive read, its about leverage over europe and world shipping.

And its debatable what's causing the stoppage- threat of attack or lack of insurance.

Heres what I dont believe- there was no plan for controlling the strait in event of conflict with iran.

War has been threatened there so often, id bet thousands of papers have been written by the dod and think tanks and this same scenario had been war gamed out thousands of times.

I have a hard time buy the planners of this operation didn't take into account of the strait being closed. Then I read about all the ancillary stuff that happened well before this conflict and I think the guy is right
BMX Bandit
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The ruhtahd right being islamoterrorist apologists is so bizarre

 
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