Pretty crazy to be talking about snow banding down here, this seems like a pretty interesting setup that we don't see hardly at all. Really hope people can have some fun with the snow free from issues with power and pipes.

Tom Cardy said:

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Pretty crazy to be talking about snow banding down here, this seems like a pretty interesting setup that we don't see hardly at all. Really hope people can have some fun with the snow free from issues with power and pipes.

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Yep deformation zones are going to spit some 1-2 inch per hour rates.

This is a very rare event for SETX.

How far north into the northern Brazos valley do you see it getting?

My wx app is showing 36 hrs at or below freezing. Imdoes that seem to be the consensus?

Jbob04 said:

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How far north into the northern Brazos valley do you see it getting?

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While you're addressing that, let me add austin to that question. Thx!

Sea Speed said:

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My wx app is showing 36 hrs at or below freezing. Imdoes that seem to be the consensus?

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Depends on how much falls. If you get 3+ inches then it's going to potentially be a good 5 to 10 colder on Wednesday and then Thursday may not even get to 40.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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BayAg_14 said:

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See what the Euro comes up with.

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Huge amounts right across the city from Katy to Humble… 8 inch swath

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18z? Can you post it? Don't feel like paying for it on pivotal weather lol

Duck Blind said:

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Jbob04 said:

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How far north into the northern Brazos valley do you see it getting?

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While you're addressing that, let me add austin to that question. Thx!

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I think both will see precip but Austin will be on the lighter side (maybe 1-2) and northern Brazos county could see a bit more. With that said, when this system gets sampled tomorrow by the hi res models, these totals could look different . Tomorrow and Monday is when confidence starts growing about totals.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Sea Speed said:

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My wx app is showing 36 hrs at or below freezing. Imdoes that seem to be the consensus?

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Depends on how much falls. If you get 3+ inches then it's going to potentially be a good 5 to 10 colder on Wednesday and then Thursday may not even get to 40.

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Roger that. Need to make the rounds around the property. Really hoping the pipe inside the chicken coop doesn't burst. I'll have a heat lamp or two on in there so that should help I hope.

We've got a fair bit of piping under our deck I've never put eyes on so it is also tempting to just shut off our whole property but we will see. Giant pita to deal with as one water line feeds 4 buildings and an outdoor kitchen.

JobSecurity said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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BayAg_14 said:

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See what the Euro comes up with.

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Huge amounts right across the city from Katy to Humble… 8 inch swath

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18z? Can you post it? Don't feel like paying for it on pivotal weather lol

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You can't see that?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011818&fh=72

Sea Speed said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Sea Speed said:

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My wx app is showing 36 hrs at or below freezing. Imdoes that seem to be the consensus?

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Depends on how much falls. If you get 3+ inches then it's going to potentially be a good 5 to 10 colder on Wednesday and then Thursday may not even get to 40.

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Roger that. Need to make the rounds around the property. Really hoping the pipe inside the chicken coop doesn't burst. I'll have a heat lamp or two on in there so that should help I hope.

We've got a fair bit of piping under our deck I've never put eyes on so it is also tempting to just shut off our whole property but we will see. Giant pita to deal with as one water line feeds 4 buildings and an outdoor kitchen.

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We live on a farm in Colorado County. I use heat trace wire or heat tape on my pipes.

Try this if you can get it. Lowe's should have it.

https://a.co/d/9DlyIEf

No it says you have to have "plus" for access to the 18z and it isn't on tropical tidbits yet

LFG!!!

Thanks I'll look in to that

Blue parachute for Alan

Mesoscale models are still not in their wheelhouse time range but looking at them they are all over the place. NAM buries us in sleet and a little snow.

RGEM buries us in both.

FV3 is a middle ground of both.

Is there any estimate as to when this all will start? Our family is in San Antonio and will be driving back to H town on Monday morning……

Overnight forecast discussion
Don't know why it pasted like that but I'm not fixing it

Quote:

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Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

My shift partner should be grateful that I am taking the forecast
period starting Monday night because confidence is high that a
winter storm will impact southeast Texas Monday night through
Tuesday afternoon, followed by a hard freeze Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Hazardous travel is likely over most if not all
of our county warning area Monday night through midday Wednesday.
Now that the system is within range of much (though not all) of
our higher resolution models, we can compare the new data with the
what the global models have been showing. So let`s dive into it!

When comparing global vs mesoscale model precip type output, the
first thing you may notice is that the mesoscale models are
indicating more sleet and freezing than the global guidance. To
investigate why, we need to look up into the atmosphere around the
850 to 700 MB layer. Nearly all of the guidance is showing WAA to
some degree in this layer. But the mesoscale models feature a more
robust WAA regime in this layer, resulting in higher temperatures.
This can easily be seen via forecast soundings where the "warm
nose" in the NAM data reaches or exceeds the freezing mark across
the southern 2/3rds of our area. The HRRR only goes out to 06Z
Tuesday as I type. But the HRRR also shows a similar thermodynamic
profile to the NAM. If you`ve made it this far into my AFD, you
might be thinking that we`re steering the forecast towards more
sleet. To that I say, not so fast!

The mesoscale data we have thus far is technically warmer than the
globals in the 850-700MB layer. But the data isn`t THAT much
warmer. In fact, the NAM/HRRR soundings a very close to a snow
profile, with only a thin layer of slightly above freezing air. If
anything, the suggested precip type from the available mesocale
data appears to be more of a sleet/snow mix, with more snow than
sleet north of I-10. So the mesoscale data may appear quite a bit
different than the global guidance when looking at precip type
maps. But once you dig into the soundings, the models look less
variant. So what are the dominant precip types that we are
expecting?

The lower levels could be warm enough at the start of the event
for some areas to see a few plain liquid rain showers Monday
evening. But this will change overnight as the situation becomes
more dynamic and precipitation becomes more widespread after
midnight. By the predawn hours, widespread light to moderate
precipitation is expected to spread across the region. The
temperature profile is expected to favor snow across the northern
half of the CWA. For the southern half (I-10 counties south the
coast), precip is expected to start as a wintry mix. The best
chance of freezing rain is over our southwestern counties
(Jackson, Matagorda, Wharton, and Brazoria) where a glaze of ice
is possible. For most of the wintry mix region, sleet is expected
to be the dominant precip type Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The temperatures profile is expected to become colder as Tuesday
morning progresses into Tuesday afternoon, suggesting the line
between all snow and a wintry mix will drift southward.

One of the more interesting aspects of this storm is the
increasing potential for heavy bands of precipitation to develop,
resulting in locally heavy snow and sleet. Our deterministic
forecast snow/sleet accumulations are generally 2 to 4 inches
north of I-10 (3-5 inches in some of our eastern counties) with
lighter amounts farther south as the ratio of sleet vs snow
increases. HOWEVER, these amounts do not fully capture the
potential of heavy banding that could result in locally heavier
totals. Regardless, any amount of snow, sleet, or freezing rain is
a significant weather event here in southeast Texas.

Skies are expected to clear as the system departs on Tuesday
night. The amount of snowpack on the ground will likely dictate
the overnight lows (more snow = colder , less snow = not as cold).
In areas that receive small amounts or no snow, overnight lows
could be as "warm" as the mid 20s (closer to 30 in coastal areas
with little to no snow). But in locations that receive a few
inches or more of snow, temperatures could drop well down into the
teens. A widespread hard freeze is likely Tuesday night and
Wednesday. But the severity of the freeze will depend on how much
snow your locations receives.

The cold is expected to gradually modify during the second half of
the week. But temperatures are expected to remain below normal
through Friday, potentially Saturday.

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AI summary:

A winter storm is expected to impact southeast Texas from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, followed by a hard freeze Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Hazardous travel conditions are likely across the region during this time.
Precipitation Types:
Initially, some areas may see rain Monday evening before transitioning to wintry precipitation overnight.
Northern Areas (north of I-10): Snow is expected to dominate, with potential accumulations of 2-4 inches, locally up to 3-5 inches in eastern counties.
Southern Areas (I-10 and south): A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is likely, with freezing rain most probable in southwestern counties (e.g., Matagorda, Wharton, Brazoria).
Heavy Bands: Locally heavy snow or sleet bands may develop, leading to higher localized accumulations.
Temperatures:
Overnight lows Tuesday into Wednesday will depend on snowpack:
Areas with little snow: Lows in the mid-20s to near 30F (coastal areas).
Areas with significant snow: Lows could drop into the teens.
Extended Forecast: Temperatures will gradually warm but remain below normal through late week.

Swan Song said:

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My extremely accurate weather app for hurricanes, Ventusky, is forecasting 6.3" for Friendswood on Tuesday. Let's see if it's as good at snow forecast as it is at hurricane forecasting.

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What does it say about the 288 side of pearland?

Ventusky app forecast went from 6.3" to 5.2" snow for Friendswood.

Private sector meteorologist I know just posted this on another forum…

"In all my 45 years in Houston, I've never seen such good support for heavy snow. That includes the 2004 Christmas miracle snow."

He is also an Ag. Class of 1980.

It's happening.