Looks like the daytime highs should get above freezing. Things tend to go bad pipe-wise when that doesn't happen. But, reminder to drain your sprinkler PVBs! Always seems like the area's most common (and easily preventable) freeze failure.
*****2025 Houston Weather*****
166,686 Views |
1283 Replies |
Last: 2 days ago by Mostly Foggy Recollection
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Usually how it works in the southern half of the state. Our surprise events tend to overperform.Tom Cardy said:
which means it'll probably change and make us all sad
Getting snow down here is always threading the needle.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Models don't handle Arctic air well, particularly the GFS and Euro. I've seen this play out time and time again.SJEAg said:
Looks like the daytime highs should get above freezing. Things tend to go bad pipe-wise when that doesn't happen. But, reminder to drain your sprinkler PVBs! Always seems like the area's most common (and easily preventable) freeze failure.
The Arctic air usually arrives faster and more potent than what was modeled a few days before. Precip or not, my bet is the suburbs and exurbs will stay below freezing for at least 24-36 hours (especially north and west), but if a good blanket of snow or ice gets laid down, my guess is that would stretch to at least 60 hours.
Urban Heat Island effect may keep Houston proper above freezing during the day.
Some mets are talking McFarland signature in discussions now. Thats serious cold stuff.
Grok says:
The McFarland Signature in meteorology refers to a specific upper-level air pattern that signals the potential for Arctic air masses to push deep into southern regions, such as South Texas. This pattern was identified by Joe McFarland, who, while working for the National Weather Service in College Station, developed a method to predict hard freezes in the Rio Grande Valley. The signature is characterized by a flow pattern in the upper-level winds, which resembles a backwards "S" shape, effectively dislodging large areas of arctic air and sending them southward. This can lead to extended cold snaps with significant drops in temperature, potentially causing ice storms or widespread freezing conditions.
The term "McFarland Signature" was coined by Ray Jensen, McFarland's boss at the time, as a brand name for this forecast method. It has since been integrated into weather service training and college meteorology courses, particularly at Texas Tech. While not universally used in television weather reports, the term is known among meteorologists and some weather enthusiasts, often used to describe specific cold weather events in Texas. However, its use in broader meteorological contexts might be less common or considered insider lingo.
The McFarland Signature in meteorology refers to a specific upper-level air pattern that signals the potential for Arctic air masses to push deep into southern regions, such as South Texas. This pattern was identified by Joe McFarland, who, while working for the National Weather Service in College Station, developed a method to predict hard freezes in the Rio Grande Valley. The signature is characterized by a flow pattern in the upper-level winds, which resembles a backwards "S" shape, effectively dislodging large areas of arctic air and sending them southward. This can lead to extended cold snaps with significant drops in temperature, potentially causing ice storms or widespread freezing conditions.
The term "McFarland Signature" was coined by Ray Jensen, McFarland's boss at the time, as a brand name for this forecast method. It has since been integrated into weather service training and college meteorology courses, particularly at Texas Tech. While not universally used in television weather reports, the term is known among meteorologists and some weather enthusiasts, often used to describe specific cold weather events in Texas. However, its use in broader meteorological contexts might be less common or considered insider lingo.
A higher up from NY is supposed to be in office Tuesday and some managers have their butt squeezed about it and people being on time and dressed appropriately.
I suggested be may want to rethink a visit for early next week as I highly doubt office is open Tuesday.
This guy was known in the past to do attendance checks for his side of the biz in NY. Thankfully he has no real bearing on what I do.
I suggested be may want to rethink a visit for early next week as I highly doubt office is open Tuesday.
This guy was known in the past to do attendance checks for his side of the biz in NY. Thankfully he has no real bearing on what I do.
like clockwork, the same model showing 5" of snow in houston earlier today is now showing zero snow for anyone in TX on the new run
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Cardy said:
like clockwork, the same model showing 5" of snow in houston earlier today is now showing zero snow for anyone in TX on the new run
You can see the NWS discounting the GFS in its disco. Euro/CMC blend at 500mb is what they're focused on. GFS is out to lunch at the 500
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
18z GEFS is nothing like the Operational run. The Operational is on an island of its own.
With that said the Euro is handling this upper air setup much much better.
Operational
Ensemble
With that said the Euro is handling this upper air setup much much better.
Operational
Ensemble
damn snow looking much less likely huh?
Nothingburger.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
gigemJTH12 said:
damn snow looking much less likely huh?
Ice storm ending as snow.
The reason I recognized this storm is old fashioned pattern recognition forecasting. Models have come around to my thinking.
Very likely we have winter precip but my initial thought of ice storm with a minor SE ridge present looks likely.
"No Faith" -Brian from Fast and Furious.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
jetch17 said:
Nothingburger.
Doubtful. An ice storm is not a nothingburger
Anything over 1/4" of ice will start to causing a mess. Make your preparations just in case.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Beyond this, pattern reloads for a cold first half of February
Well, that's an interesting look for the end of January. I'd say it could be worse, but not much. Buy firewood. pic.twitter.com/fj1kHa75IX
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 15, 2025
The weather fear porn ppl are an odd group
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,925
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yewenjie said:
The weather fear porn ppl are an odd group
It's odd messaging, but it's not wrong if you hate cold. This pattern is locked in for a little while given the EPO, extreme Alaskan ridge not going anywhere.
Meh
GFS model has it in the upper 30s and 40s.
Euro is trending east with the cold and much drier here.
Long ways to go before Mon/Tues but if that trend continues it's going to be just like last week.
Euro is trending east with the cold and much drier here.
Long ways to go before Mon/Tues but if that trend continues it's going to be just like last week.
GFS always struggles with arctic air. It will come back in line with the others soon.
Darn it, I want some winter weather. Not the pipe bursting kind, just little snow flurry fun.
After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.
And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.
And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.
Ferk. Worst case scenario in terms of precip.Quote:
Ice storm ending as snow.
what does ice storm ending as snow mean? snow?
We choose (well, most here do) to live in Houston and I am not interested in ice or snow or freezing rain. No one here knows how to handle this weather (including the city), so all it does is jack up life for 6 million people and businesses. 35 degrees is plenty of cold. If you want snow, go to Cokorado. Here's hoping temps stay above freezing for the rest of 2025!
gigemJTH12 said:
what does ice storm ending as snow mean? snow?
Roads and power lines iced up and then covered with snow. Wrecks galore and downed power lines. No thanks!
jbanda said:
After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.
And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.
THIS.
I still have PTSD from that week. It was absolutely effing miserable.
It means the roads are slicker than snot on a brass doorknob, but the snow covers it up, so drivers don't see it. The snow also provides a small bit of insulation, keeping the ice on the roads longer.gigemJTH12 said:
what does ice storm ending as snow mean? snow?
Now, with Houston temperatures moderating fairly quick by nature, it's not the end of the world, but it will increase the carnage until the morons figure it out.
12th Man Ag said:
We choose (well, most here do) to live in Houston and I am not interested in ice or snow or freezing rain. No one here knows how to handle this weather (including the city), so all it does is jack up life for 6 million people and businesses. 35 degrees is plenty of cold. If you want snow, go to Cokorado. Here's hoping temps stay above freezing for the rest of 2025!
Yep. I tell Yankees we suffer through August so we don't have to deal with this ***** The last 5 or 6 years have proven otherwise unfortunately.
Global warming indeed.
Anti-taxxer said:jbanda said:
After 2021, I never need to see snow/ice at my house again.
And yes I see the irony about being a snowflake about actual snowflakes.
THIS.
I still have PTSD from that week. It was absolutely effing miserable.
100%. Not just the misery of miserable cold and no power, but the substantial property damage of freezing pipes. We got lucky but a lot of our friends had pipes burst and water damage. Now imagine that now that everyone's deductibles are a lot higher and insurance is looking harder and harder for reasons not to cover everything.
It's the reason I'll never leave town during a bad weather event. At least if I'm home I can do whatever I can to mitigate damage and jump on anything that happens immediately.
It means a bunch of lifted 4x4s in ditches and into telephone poles.gigemJTH12 said:
what does ice storm ending as snow mean? snow?
February 15, 2021
Ice planet Hoth...I mean Piazza Dr. in Richmond, TX.
A layer of ice with a layer of snow over the top. Stayed like that for days. If I never see this scene again it will be too soon.
Ice planet Hoth...I mean Piazza Dr. in Richmond, TX.
A layer of ice with a layer of snow over the top. Stayed like that for days. If I never see this scene again it will be too soon.
Huge shift away from the chance for winter weather in Houston next week with both the GFS and now the Euro.
— Pat Cavlin (@pcavlin) January 16, 2025
Need to see if this trend continues today.
@coopercuffe
Justin Tucker accused of multiple sexual harassments
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
111
El Mero Mero 14
Rich Get Richer - Dick Sports and Texas Athletics
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
51