TheNotoriousP.I.P. said:
25/yr is ridiculous but I think your 10-12 valuation is also not realistic. We are gonna have to at least pony up somewhere in the vicinity of the non-tax MLE which is about 16/yr which is about the highest I'd go for him. If he asks for more than the MLE then you just pick up his 3MM option and either ride it out or use him as trade fodder.
He's just not worth the MLE. The MLE is right at 15M this year.
Julian would not be a starter on the Knicks. He wouldn't be a starter on last year's OKC thunder. Or the year before's Celtics or the year before's Nuggets. He's a backup wing on a championship team.
Last year SEVEN players signed for more than this year's MLE.
1. Myles Turner
2. Kyrie (resign)
3. FVV (resign)
4. Giddey (25M)
5. Kuminga (23M)
6. Santi (17.5)
7. Duncan Robinson (15.9)
That's it. You could maybe make an argument of Julian being close to Duncan due to better defense, but Duncan's significantly better shooting is why he got that deal and it was only 3y declining. Duncan is a career 40% 3pt shooter and was 41% last year. Julian is a career .375 shooter.
After that, you have NAW, Schroeder, LaVert, DFS, and Portis as the only guys in the 12-15M range.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/signed/_/year/2025I think that 4y53M that DFS got is probably the closest comparable deal to Julian's value, but DFS was coming off a year where he shot 41% from three and was a high level versatile defender. Also his last two years are unguaranteed so he is effectively on an ending contract now.
The actual FA market the last two years just does not support Julian being worth the full MLE or higher. He was just hunted mercilessly on defense and he is an IcyHot inconsistent shooter. On a championship team, he is a backup wing and nothing more.
I agree if he wants the MLE or more, we should look at trades. Use him to move up in the draft to get a PF. Keldon+Jules for Cam Johnson saves Denver some cash. You could trade him to Detroit for BeefStew, which would open up their free agency bank.