***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 12:08p, 12/16/24
AG
Ag_07 said:
I was where you are back when he was first mentioned but then I took a closer look at his numbers.

This isn't just one outlier season of low production. His production has been in a steady decline for the past few years. HRs, RBIs, OPS all on a steady decline in the past 3-4 years.

I know awards are the best barometer for success but it's telling that he won a GG in every season since 2013 until 23 and 24.

There's a reason they wanna trade him.
It's way worse than I thought.





Aging playing with slow bat and long swing sees a decline (some major) in Hard Hit%, Exit Velo, Barrels, Fly Balls, Pop Ups, and pretty much all key batted ball data

Unless we think we have the magic touch to fix his swing, I want no part of him.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 12:09p, 12/16/24
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
Farmer1906 said:

And before anyone freaks out about that OF lineup, here is their wRC+ vs RHP in the last 2 seasons: 131, 119, 108. That's pretty damn elite for the back end of a lineup with plus defense.

can we freak out if we don't have the faintest idea what those numbers mean?
You do you. Anything >100 is better than the league average on offense.
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The Porkchop Express
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12:10p, 12/16/24
AG
I'm not sure I can trust stats that call Jake and Chas elite.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 12:12p, 12/16/24
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
I'm not sure I can trust stats that call Jake and Chas elite.
Context.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 12:12p, 12/16/24
tjack16 said:
Signing Profar would be my move plus trading for Arenado
I'm 100% out on Profar. Especially when options like Teoscar and Santander are out there.

Profar is feast or famine -- and it's more famine than feast.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:17p, 12/16/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Ag_07 said:
I was where you are back when he was first mentioned but then I took a closer look at his numbers.

This isn't just one outlier season of low production. His production has been in a steady decline for the past few years. HRs, RBIs, OPS all on a steady decline in the past 3-4 years.

I know awards are the best barometer for success but it's telling that he won a GG in every season since 2013 until 23 and 24.

There's a reason they wanna trade him.
It's way worse than I thought.





Aging playing with slow bat and long swing sees a decline (some major) in Hard Hit%, Exit Velo, Barrels, Fly Balls, Pop Ups, and pretty much all key batted ball data

Unless we think we have the magic touch to fix his swing, I want no part of him.


I'd want him if they eat a lot of his salary or we could trade Pressly + a mid ranked prospect for him.

I also think part of his decline is the team around him not being good and he just hasn't seemed happy in STL like he was in Colorado. Maybe a change of scenery would help.

Also his contract dips significantly in year 3 so if they take on part of the salary it's not that bad a risk.
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Beat40
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 12:17p, 12/16/24
The Porkchop Express said:
I'm not sure I can trust stats that call Jake and Chas elite.
The problem is it's situational. They are elite in certain situations, which is what the stat says.

They have to be paired with others, and used accordingly, who are elite in their weakness to have one complete player.

Just a much harder task than finding one guy who fills both roles, but that's the job of Dana -- to find the compliment.

If the GM can't find the compliment, and the manager doesn't use the guys correctly, it doesn't matter.
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Project Gemini
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12:20p, 12/16/24
AG
Aaron Judge has situational problems too. Its always situational in baseball because the game is played one pitch at a time.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 12:24p, 12/16/24
tjack16 said:
Farmer1906 said:
Ag_07 said:
I was where you are back when he was first mentioned but then I took a closer look at his numbers.

This isn't just one outlier season of low production. His production has been in a steady decline for the past few years. HRs, RBIs, OPS all on a steady decline in the past 3-4 years.

I know awards are the best barometer for success but it's telling that he won a GG in every season since 2013 until 23 and 24.

There's a reason they wanna trade him.
It's way worse than I thought.





Aging playing with slow bat and long swing sees a decline (some major) in Hard Hit%, Exit Velo, Barrels, Fly Balls, Pop Ups, and pretty much all key batted ball data

Unless we think we have the magic touch to fix his swing, I want no part of him.


I'd want him if they eat a lot of his salary or we could trade Pressly + a mid ranked prospect for him.

I also think part of his decline is the team around him not being good and he just hasn't seemed happy in STL like he was in Colorado. Maybe a change of scenery would help.

Also his contract dips significantly in year 3 so if they take on part of the salary it's not that bad a risk.
All but one year in STL he has been close to an average of .150 less in OPS than he was in COL.

As Farmer also pointed out, getting older with a slow bat and long swing is a recipe for disaster. I don't want to be in an Abreu situation again. I hate getting on the wrong end of ball players. That happens in name chasing.
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Beat40
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In reply to Project Gemini • 12:27p, 12/16/24
Project Gemini said:
Aaron Judge has situational problems too. Its always situational in baseball because the game is played one pitch at a time.
Except Aaron Judge has less situational problems than Jake or Chas.

The point is this -- there isn't an issue with the stat. The issue is with applying the stat and making decisions with it. I can trust the stat because its numbers based, and in baseball, we have large sample sizes.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:38p, 12/16/24
AG
Quote:
I want no part of him

This
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iamtheglove
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12:43p, 12/16/24
Back to Gamel discussed up thread. I would like to see him brought back on the cheap. In his short stint he put together some really quality and patient at bats - something that would benefit this club. Was actually refreshing to see one if our guys work a count and use all fields.
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EastCoastAgNc
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12:47p, 12/16/24
AG
I really hope the Yankees try and trade for arenado. It would be Josh Donaldson all over again for them.
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tjack16
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12:50p, 12/16/24
AG
Let me go back by saying I'm only for Arenado if it's the only feasible option besides rolling with an internal option.

I'd rather have 2 years of declining Arenado than 2 years of shuffling AAAA caliber players or waiver wire guys through 3rd base and 1st base.

If it was up to me we would be signing Bregman back.
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Mathguy64
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12:51p, 12/16/24
AG
Arenado is a classic case of a player in Colorado with inflated numbers who went to a different team where normal air and age have combined to show a massive drop over time.

Like the 3rd rail in a subway, the signs say "do not touch". This could easily turn into Abreu 2.0.
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wcrew93
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12:56p, 12/16/24
AG
Christian Walker:
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 12:57p, 12/16/24
AG
Kind of. I'd argue 2022 Arenado played at a near MVP level. I think age caught up more so than the change of scenery.
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MaxPower
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In reply to wcrew93 • 1:17p, 12/16/24
Walker should be the #1 target just focusing on 2025 but he will be 34 so you never really know when the wheels will fall off. If we can get him to do 2 years with a higher AAV and team option that's probably ideal. He could be the next Abreu or he could be Nelson Cruz, you just don't know.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:18p, 12/16/24
AG
What terrifies me with Arenado is that his defense, while still good, is no longer at the platinum glove level it was for most of his career, which tells you he is simply aging and declining all around.

If it was a matter of taking gold glove Arenado and then hoping the bat has something left, that would be one thing, but in this case, his glove is not as elite as it once was either. Trading for Arenado feels like giving 20 million to pick up Jeremy Pena. Player with value? Sure. Player I want to use the majority of my payroll space on when I need more juice in my lineup? Hell no.
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Wabs
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 1:29p, 12/16/24
AG
SpaceCityAg05 said:
What terrifies me with Arenado is that his defense, while still good, is no longer at the platinum glove level it was for most of his career, which tells you he is simply aging and declining all around.

If it was a matter of taking gold glove Arenado and then hoping the bat has something left, that would be one thing, but in this case, his glove is not as elite as it once was either. Trading for Arenado feels like giving 20 million to pick up Jeremy Pena. Player with value? Sure. Player I want to use the majority of my payroll space on when I need more juice in my lineup? Hell no.
This is what I don't get. We have much more pressing needs to spend $ on. We basically need 2 OFers/1B and would really like to add another good bullpen arm. IMO, we get there by trading Framber, dumping Pressly's salary and using whatever $ we have to sign players like Santander and Walker, etc.
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SpaceCityAg05
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1:51p, 12/16/24
AG
I really like Christian Walker, but if the annual salary is anywhere close to similar (length of contract will certainly be different), I think I would prefer Santander.

Without Tucker, we need at least one more lefty that can hit higher than 6-9, and Santander as a switch-hitter covers that. Plus given that we do not have enough money to upgrade all the spots, I would prioritize OF and use cheap options to platoon 1B with Singleton (which gives you another lefty) with Caratini/DeZenzo or a modest signing like a Canha that can platoon there and in the OF.

That being said, the front office may be comfortable with the shorter contract that Walker would require as opposed to Santander, which I am assuming will take 4-5 years.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 2:12p, 12/16/24
AG
This!
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 2:15p, 12/16/24
AG
For all the homers Santander hit last year, he only had a batting average of 0.235 with an 0.814 OPS. Maybe someone who knows stats better can dig into him, but it makes me wonder how sustainable his success is.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 2:18p, 12/16/24
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
For all the homers Santander hit last year, he only had a batting average of 0.235 with an 0.814 OPS. Maybe someone who knows stats better can dig into him, but it makes me wonder how sustainable his success is.


Teoscar is the better overall hitter. Santander has more power and is a switch hitter. He will likely be the more expensive of the two. I'll take the switch hitter over the more rounded hitter. More options.
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texasaggie2015
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2:22p, 12/16/24
AG
Hard to believe Teoscar is already 32 years old
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Farmer1906
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2:28p, 12/16/24
AG
Jus an FYI - Walker, Santander, and Hernandez all have a QO attached to them. Profar doesn't not. Profar is coming off the best season of the group, bats switch, and will likely get the least in free agency.
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Farmer1906
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2:31p, 12/16/24
AG
For those weary of the Profar improvement - here are the changes he made.


Quote:
Last offseason, however, he worked with Fernando Tats Sr. to try and add more power. The results? He changed from a toe tap to a leg kick, made a conscious effort to swing harder, and posted an average exit velocity that was 3.6 mph higher than any other season of his career. That is a massive jump. Think of it this way in 2024, the closest Brave to Profar in average exit velocity was Matt Olson. In 2023, it was Orlando Arcia, and Arcia was well ahead. As if that wasn't impressive enough, he made these gains in power production without sacrificing an ounce of his plate discipline and contact skills.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:35p, 12/16/24
AG
He's also strictly a LFer.
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Farmer1906
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2:37p, 12/16/24
AG
Profar's Market?

Spotrac Market Value: 2/26 M
Fangraphs Crowdsource: 3/45 M
MLBTradeRumors: 3/45 M
NY Times/Athletic: 3/44 M
Comp (Tyler ONeil): 3/51 M


I could see him filling a Brantley-type role on the team.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 2:41p, 12/16/24
AG
Mathguy64 said:
He's also strictly a LFer.
They're all pretty terrible on defense in the OF.

Teoscar -11 FRV (1308 innings)
Profar -7 (1222)
Santander -3 (1120)

Profar played a tiny bit of 1B last year. He's got experience at every position but pitcher and catcher.
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iBrad
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2:53p, 12/16/24
AG
I still like Meyers in CF and batting 9th. Give him around 90-100 starts and let him serve as a defensive replacement in the other games. Also pinch hit for him, as needed. I still think he has the potential to be a better hitter, but falls short in the mental aspects of the game, which is evident in his abysmal numbers with two strikes. He will have hot steaks you can ride, but cold streaks where he'll look completely overmatched. Overall, the biggest problem for Jake last year was too many other guys being hurt or underperforming. When Jake is climbing as high as sixth in the lineup, we have problems.
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Farmer1906
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2:56p, 12/16/24
AG
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Ag_07
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3:18p, 12/16/24
AG
So pretty much in line with what 2015 is saying.

They're working other options and in wait and see mode on Arenado pending how those shake out.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:14p, 12/16/24
Farmer1906 said:
For those weary of the Profar improvement - here are the changes he made.


Quote:
Last offseason, however, he worked with Fernando Tats Sr. to try and add more power. The results? He changed from a toe tap to a leg kick, made a conscious effort to swing harder, and posted an average exit velocity that was 3.6 mph higher than any other season of his career. That is a massive jump. Think of it this way in 2024, the closest Brave to Profar in average exit velocity was Matt Olson. In 2023, it was Orlando Arcia, and Arcia was well ahead. As if that wasn't impressive enough, he made these gains in power production without sacrificing an ounce of his plate discipline and contact skills.
Profar has been up and down his entire career. Last year was the best year of his career -- by far -- and it was a contract year. That always makes me leery and is a red flag for me. Maybe the improvements are permanent, but you're taking a risk on a guy who has a history of either being really good or REALLY bad.

I'd rather give the money to Teoscar. At least his OPS+ has been well over 100 in every year of his career except his first year.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Beat40 • 4:17p, 12/16/24
My takeaway is we need Fernando Tatis Jr for hitting coach
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