If we end up 9th and Southern Miss is 8th…I'd be a little mad but absolutely come around to it as a consolation prize.
*****Official RPI and Seed Watch Thread*****
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Last: 1 day ago by Detective Jake Peralta
Detective Jake Peralta
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Mr.Ackar07 said:W said:
the D1 guys say:
5. t.u.
6. Alabama
7. Auburn
8. A&M
with Southern Miss at #9. Florida at #10. FSU #11
they put a lot of weight on head-to-head series wins
The caveat being that A&M can't go 1 and Q in the tournament while Southern Miss goes deep in theirs.
But we're already deep in the SEC tournament.
Touche
the Nerdcast also said top 8 seeds for non-power conference teams are rare
only 2 in the last 10 years...East Carolina and Oregon State (as an independent)
only 2 in the last 10 years...East Carolina and Oregon State (as an independent)
I find it almost impossible that Vandy's RPI can be as bad as it is. 14 SEC wins, and 19-8 OOC. They currently sit at 73. Compare them to, say #41 High Point, who has a 39-18 record and 7 Q4 losses. IfVandy just dropped 4 cupcake wins to make their games played equal ours (52), I wonder what would happen.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Detective Jake Peralta
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Monday morning (5/18):
SUMMARY: They did it. Against all odds and without their best pitcher, the Ags dug deep and took 2/3 from a desperate Mississippi State squad to notch their 6th winning weekend in SEC play, and grab third place in the SEC with an 18-11 overall mark. Last week, I said this result would earn us a top 8 seed, and I'm still about 95% confident this will be the case. I have the Ags slotted in as the 8th overall seed, and I think there's a little cushion between 8th and 9th.
The DSR remains strong for A&M (7th), and if softball is any indication of what baseball might do, that will matter a lot. Additionally, A&M's top-end wins dwarf Florida State's, and they have the head to head series win over Florida in Gainesville to give some more evidence over the Gators.
Southern Miss and Nebraska are wild cards, especially with SM's AD on the committee (h/t to Mr. Ackar for that nugget), but USM would need to have a much higher RPI to get the nod as a non-P4 team, and I think Nebraska would need to run through the Big Ten tournament to have a shot.
Also of note, since 2015 the third place SEC team has received a top 8 seed 8/10 times, with 2015 (thanks, Hyman) and 2022 being the exceptions. In both of those years, the SEC overall received just two top 8 seeds - that will not be an issue this year.
Wins in Hoover never hurt, and if the Ags could get a 19th SEC win, especially against someone like Auburn, that would make me 100% confident. Let's just do that and remove any doubt.
Texas A&M Snapshot:
39-13 (18-11, 3rd in SEC)
RPI: 11 (-1 from last week)
ELO: 7 (+1)
KPI: 10 (-1)
DSR: 7 (no change)
PEAR NET: 6 (+1)
SoS: 18 (+8)
Q1: 10-12
Q2: 9-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 16-0
Full Seed List
Potential A&M Path to Omaha
SUMMARY: They did it. Against all odds and without their best pitcher, the Ags dug deep and took 2/3 from a desperate Mississippi State squad to notch their 6th winning weekend in SEC play, and grab third place in the SEC with an 18-11 overall mark. Last week, I said this result would earn us a top 8 seed, and I'm still about 95% confident this will be the case. I have the Ags slotted in as the 8th overall seed, and I think there's a little cushion between 8th and 9th.
The DSR remains strong for A&M (7th), and if softball is any indication of what baseball might do, that will matter a lot. Additionally, A&M's top-end wins dwarf Florida State's, and they have the head to head series win over Florida in Gainesville to give some more evidence over the Gators.
Southern Miss and Nebraska are wild cards, especially with SM's AD on the committee (h/t to Mr. Ackar for that nugget), but USM would need to have a much higher RPI to get the nod as a non-P4 team, and I think Nebraska would need to run through the Big Ten tournament to have a shot.
Also of note, since 2015 the third place SEC team has received a top 8 seed 8/10 times, with 2015 (thanks, Hyman) and 2022 being the exceptions. In both of those years, the SEC overall received just two top 8 seeds - that will not be an issue this year.
Wins in Hoover never hurt, and if the Ags could get a 19th SEC win, especially against someone like Auburn, that would make me 100% confident. Let's just do that and remove any doubt.
Texas A&M Snapshot:
39-13 (18-11, 3rd in SEC)
RPI: 11 (-1 from last week)
ELO: 7 (+1)
KPI: 10 (-1)
DSR: 7 (no change)
PEAR NET: 6 (+1)
SoS: 18 (+8)
Q1: 10-12
Q2: 9-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 16-0
Full Seed List
Potential A&M Path to Omaha
W said:
the Nerdcast also said top 8 seeds for non-power conference teams are rare
only 2 in the last 10 years...East Carolina and Oregon State (as an independent)
I think there's been at least one other exception. In 2022 So. Miss hosted a Super Regional where they lost two games to Ol Miss by a combined score of 15-0 when Ol Miss was on their way to winning the CWS. I checked and it doesn't look like So. Miss backed into hosting that Super Regional.
Ol Miss won the CoralGables regional that year and Miami finished with a record of 40-20 and an rpi of no. 27 so I don't think they were scheduled to host a SR over So. Miss.
Miami was the 6th overall seed that year. Had they won their regional, then they would have hosted a Super. Southern Miss backed in when the 'Canes lost.
Well sure enough. I just assumed that having an rpi of 27 would have meant they weren't a top 8 seed. But turns out their rpi dropped from 8 to 27 in the last two weeks of the season by losing 4 of their last 5 in the ACC tournament and the regional.
Once again it would be really nice if LSU can win a few games in the tournament and turn the Aggies' Q1 record from 10-12 to 13-12.
As long as it's not game 12.
No more than 2 please.
src94
Some of you may not know that Boyd's World still cranks out ISR numbers. Year after year after decade, the ISR's seem to give more accurate power rankings, without all of the quadrant BS. I wonder if we compared the average ISR of Super Regional and Omaha participants to the average RPI over the years, what the differences would be. I'd do the same for all of the 3 seeds that won regionals.
Fresno State's ISR at the end of 2008 was 21. Their RPI was 55.
Before regional play started, their RPI was 92, and ISR was 46, basically a middle of the road 3 seed, pretty similar to 1985 Villanova, or three 8 seeds who've lost the basketball title game (Butler, Kentucky, UNC).
http://www.boydsworld.com/
Fresno State's ISR at the end of 2008 was 21. Their RPI was 55.
Before regional play started, their RPI was 92, and ISR was 46, basically a middle of the road 3 seed, pretty similar to 1985 Villanova, or three 8 seeds who've lost the basketball title game (Butler, Kentucky, UNC).
http://www.boydsworld.com/
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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Nothing major affecting the Ags yesterday (Tuesday), the biggest result was LSU staying alive and keeping a possibility of moving back into Q1 alive. If LSU beats Auburn tonight, they *should* move up to around 59. Need to be top 60 to be Q1.
Elsewhere:
Elsewhere:
- Ole Miss drops from the host race with their bad loss to Missouri
- Vanderbilt keeps their slim hopes alive
- NC State falls to Duke putting their at large chances in serious doubt
Detective Jake Peralta said:
Nothing major affecting the Ags yesterday (Tuesday), the biggest result was LSU staying alive and keeping a possibility of moving back into Q1 alive. If LSU beats Auburn tonight, they *should* move up to around 59. Need to be top 60 to be Q1.
Elsewhere:
- Ole Miss drops from the host race with their bad loss to Missouri
- Vanderbilt keeps their slim hopes alive
- NC State falls to Duke putting their at large chances in serious doubt
What can Missouri do to help us?
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Not much, they're locked in as a Q2 opponent at this point with an RPI up to 109. And even if Miss State wins, they will not pass us.
Find a way to beat tu last week but sadly the Ags did not get a lot of help last week good thing we managed our affairs and won 2/3
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Rooting guide for today (listed in order of importance):
- Georgia State over Southern Miss
- Vanderbilt over Florida
- LSU over Auburn
- Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
- Texas State over App State
94chem said:
Some of you may not know that Boyd's World still cranks out ISR numbers. Year after year after decade, the ISR's seem to give more accurate power rankings, without all of the quadrant BS. I wonder if we compared the average ISR of Super Regional and Omaha participants to the average RPI over the years, what the differences would be. I'd do the same for all of the 3 seeds that won regionals.
Fresno State's ISR at the end of 2008 was 21. Their RPI was 55.
Before regional play started, their RPI was 92, and ISR was 46, basically a middle of the road 3 seed, pretty similar to 1985 Villanova, or three 8 seeds who've lost the basketball title game (Butler, Kentucky, UNC).
http://www.boydsworld.com/
Average ranking for teams that made the Supers in the last 5 post seasons:
ISR: 19.5
RPI: 20.28
(ISR is lower in 3 of those years, RPI is lower in the other 2 years)
For the 3 Seeds that won their regional in the last 5 post seasons:
ISR: 42.77
RPI: 40
(RPI is lower in 2 years, ISR lower in 1 year, tied 1 year, and one year had no 3 seeds win their regional)
one very upsetting scenario...
if the committee decides to do this:
8. Florida
9. A&M
primarily because of the Gator's Q1-Q2 record...
it means the Ags would have to win 2 series in Gainesville in 1 season to reach Omaha
that would seem quite unfair
if the committee decides to do this:
8. Florida
9. A&M
primarily because of the Gator's Q1-Q2 record...
it means the Ags would have to win 2 series in Gainesville in 1 season to reach Omaha
that would seem quite unfair
W said:
one very upsetting scenario...
if the committee decides to do this:
8. Florida
9. A&M
primarily because of the Gator's Q1-Q2 record...
it means the Ags would have to win 2 series in Gainesville in 1 season to reach Omaha
that would seem quite unfair
If Florida wins tomorrow, I think the Aggies Friday game becomes a must win.
I think Florida is one of the hosts most susceptible to getting upset in their own regional. They have some bad losses and have been inconsistent at times this year.
I also wouldn't trust Peterson in a big spot, he's just as likely to blow up than he is to shut anyone down.
I also wouldn't trust Peterson in a big spot, he's just as likely to blow up than he is to shut anyone down.
W said:
one very upsetting scenario...
if the committee decides to do this:
8. Florida
9. A&M
primarily because of the Gator's Q1-Q2 record...
it means the Ags would have to win 2 series in Gainesville in 1 season to reach Omaha
that would seem quite unfair
If you ignore conference standing, head to head and only focus on RPI, sure that would make a ton of sense.
CapCityAg89 said:W said:
one very upsetting scenario...
if the committee decides to do this:
8. Florida
9. A&M
primarily because of the Gator's Q1-Q2 record...
it means the Ags would have to win 2 series in Gainesville in 1 season to reach Omaha
that would seem quite unfair
If you ignore conference standing, head to head and only focus on RPI, sure that would make a ton of sense.
Conference standings won't mean much when both teams have the same number of regular season wins. Let's not pretend they were 16-14. They now have 19 SEC wins. If they win today and we lose tomorrow there's a good argument for them over us since they'll have 20 SEC wins and we'll have 18.
There's a lot of metrics to look at here that are way more important than regular season conference standings. Not even sure RPI matters as much as it used to. Still, sticking with an RPI based poll SOS favors Florida with them having the #2 SOS and us at #18. Non conference SOS favors them by a very wide margin, 2 v 211. That one is a real problem. On the other hand for several days we've heard that DSR had a huge influence over the softball seedings and we're 7 while Florida is 10. In that the SOS delta is negligible at 3 for Florida and 8 for us.
Bottom line is Florida is making a run at a top 8 and if they win today and we lose tomorrow I think they'll have effectively passed us. The reality is we've done enough to earn one but so have they and we can't both get them. We need Florida to lose today to Bama and we need to beat Auburn to separate ourselves from them. In the regular season they played at Alabama and Florida swept the Tide which probably plays in our favor from a motivation standpoint. Bama is going to want to avenge that result.
Somebody was going to make a run and beating Auburn is how we stay ahead of them
Sq 17 said:
Somebody was going to make a run and beating Auburn is how we stay ahead of them
Exactly right. Southern Miss making a run is a problem too. The bottom line is really that we need to keep winning games.
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Another day without a lot of help around the country…but on the bright side no one has passed us in the metrics. We've even moved up one in KPI to 9.
Florida will be very interesting. The metrics edge A&M and the Q1 win total is massive…but the Gators are 2-7 against the teams they're trying to catch for a top 8 (A&M, Alabama, Auburn).
Florida will be very interesting. The metrics edge A&M and the Q1 win total is massive…but the Gators are 2-7 against the teams they're trying to catch for a top 8 (A&M, Alabama, Auburn).
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Rooting guide for our last day without Aggie baseball:
Georgia over Miss St (12 pm, SECN)
Alabama over Florida (3:30 PM, SECN)
Kansas State over West Virginia (5:30 PM, ESPNU)
Southern Miss is off today after their late, weather-delayed comeback last night. They'll play the winner of South Alabama and Troy tomorrow morning.
Georgia over Miss St (12 pm, SECN)
Alabama over Florida (3:30 PM, SECN)
Kansas State over West Virginia (5:30 PM, ESPNU)
Southern Miss is off today after their late, weather-delayed comeback last night. They'll play the winner of South Alabama and Troy tomorrow morning.
so as of right now...
Florida's Q1 record is 16-11
and their Q1 + Q2 is 23-14
very impressive marks
we're going to find out the value of a series win
Florida's Q1 record is 16-11
and their Q1 + Q2 is 23-14
very impressive marks
we're going to find out the value of a series win
would also add...
the Ags' resume compares favorably to Alabama's...especially with a win over Auburn tomorrow
the edge in conference record...18-11 vs. 18-13 (at the moment)...could be the difference
Bama did not play Georgia and lost their series to t.u.
the Ags' resume compares favorably to Alabama's...especially with a win over Auburn tomorrow
the edge in conference record...18-11 vs. 18-13 (at the moment)...could be the difference
Bama did not play Georgia and lost their series to t.u.
Dam watching these guys I guess A&M and Auburn have been eliminated and Florida is the champion.
W said:
would also add...
the Ags' resume compares favorably to Alabama's...especially with a win over Auburn tomorrow
the edge in conference record...18-11 vs. 18-13 (at the moment)...could be the difference
Bama did not play Georgia and lost their series to t.u.
Some on here were allegedly relaying from Brauny earlier in the week that Bama is a top 8 lock. I just dont get it...
SOS and RPI is what has everybody in love with Bama
JMHO UGa won the regular season by a comfortable margin Because the regular season should matter Put the Bulldogs at 1
2-5 you could put in just about any order and make a case why the teams are ordered that way
JMHO UGa won the regular season by a comfortable margin Because the regular season should matter Put the Bulldogs at 1
2-5 you could put in just about any order and make a case why the teams are ordered that way
Alabama was #13 in the DSR before today's game
Ags (#7) have an edge there...and not a small one
Ags (#7) have an edge there...and not a small one
Luigi Vampa said:W said:
would also add...
the Ags' resume compares favorably to Alabama's...especially with a win over Auburn tomorrow
the edge in conference record...18-11 vs. 18-13 (at the moment)...could be the difference
Bama did not play Georgia and lost their series to t.u.
Some on here were allegedly relaying from Brauny earlier in the week that Bama is a top 8 lock. I just dont get it...
Agree. I never understood the argument that the gap between us and Florida was so small that they could pass us with a couple of good games in Hoover but at the same time the gap between us and Alabama is insurmountable. Or even the gap between Florida and Alabama for that matter.
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