The fact there is still internet on and social media active is interesting in and of itself. Usually the regime would have turned everything off by now.

What was the spark this time? The water shortage?

Inflation, economy, everything. Iran has a seriously dysfunctional government and a lot of people are pissed off as to how much money they have pissed away building up a bunch of relatively useless missiles and missile bases when they could have spent it on infrastructure for the population. The government is openly talking about evacuating the entirety of Tehran due to infrastructure mismanagement. It's insane.

Khameini and President Pezeshkian making some leadership changes is perhaps a good sign of pressure on them. This seems like it continues to ramp up in the volume/size of protests/riots.

Iran in shutdown as protesters storm governor's office, crowds chant 'Death to Khamenei' | Emma Bussey, Fox News

Iran ground to a near standstill Wednesday as businesses, universities and government offices closed under a government-ordered shutdown amid protests caused by a… pic.twitter.com/Nn1PRWHWef

— Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) January 1, 2026

Of course they have arrested more students, John F Kerry (who served in Vietnam and Cambodia btw) and Obama's pals having executed 2200+ last year.

Looks like the govt. of Iran is falling right in front of our eyes, for 45 years nothing and then all of a sudden it is all falling


Clerics taking off their robes and turbins and changing into street close, not a good sign for the regime !!
If this is true that Khamenei has fled Iran that is HUUUUGGGEEE!!!!
FU MULLAHS !! Bad news for Ruskies and the chicoms too !!! F all three !!!

YouBet said:

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Gradually then suddenly.

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If we see IRGC units defecting wholesale, then you'll be right. Until then, sadly, I feel this will be Charlie and Lucy.

K2-HMFIC said:

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YouBet said:

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Gradually then suddenly.

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If we see IRGC units defecting wholesale, then you'll be right. Until then, sadly, I feel this will be Charlie and Lucy.

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Yeah, I'm not on board yet that this will pan out. Just pointing out that this is how things typically end with governments.

K2-HMFIC said:

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YouBet said:

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Gradually then suddenly.

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If we see IRGC units defecting wholesale, then you'll be right. Until then, sadly, I feel this will be Charlie and Lucy.

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Didn't the irgc not long ago lose a lot of its command structure?

That is exactly what I was trying to convey!

Who?mikejones! said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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YouBet said:

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Gradually then suddenly.

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If we see IRGC units defecting wholesale, then you'll be right. Until then, sadly, I feel this will be Charlie and Lucy.

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Didn't the irgc not long ago lose a lot of its command structure?

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Yes, Israel took out a lot of their infrastructure.

About a dozen cities now protesting, let's see if this movement has legs

Five protesters now dead. Iran has executed twice as many people this year as last year and they executed more people in last two months than all of 2021.

Some of these cities are more important than others. Most of the 'action' that matters is in the western portion of Iran, imho.

2/ https://t.co/vnPQepbleN

— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) January 1, 2026

I won't hold my breath, but this is probably the weakest the regime has been thanks to the IDF cleaning their clock last summer.

Praying for the best outcome for the Iranian people but unfortunately a bloodbath is probably required to overthrow even the substantially weakened "theocracy/police state ".

The past few revolutions I think have been 'relatively' bloodless in Iran (nevermind that they were basically CIA-run).

7/ https://t.co/vPTnkcXNjr

— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) January 1, 2026

This one might be bloodier, but I doubt the IRGC folks stay loyal for too long if this keeps going. Longish thread there that is fairly good info imho.

ETA translation per twitter;

Quote:

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At present, the protests in Iran are no longer tied to economic pressures; rather, demonstrations with an anti-regime character have begun.

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Trump threatened the regime if it keeps killing protesters, riots reach a new high (police stations burned in some cities), and Reza encourages the students/shop owners etc.

Quote:

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'The United States of America will come to their rescue,' President Donald Trump announced about the protestors on Truth Social.

US President Donald Trump declared that the United States was "locked and loaded and ready to go" if Iran killed any more protestors, in a post on Truth Social early Friday morning.

An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani, responded to Trump's message, in a post on Twitter/X, stating that "Trump should know that American interference in this internal issue is equivalent to chaos across the entire region and the destruction of American interests."

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Kind of amazing how all sides here are essentially issuing their threats/responses on x/twitter. Widespread calls for Pahlavi to 'return' are surprising. He's been encouraging this from his US home, fwiw. At least 6-8 already have been shot and killed by 'security' thugs.

10 mins ago as of writing this lmao pic.twitter.com/zks3UrFB1y

— 🌅 (@akwehoujwa67629) January 2, 2026

Locked and loaded in Venezuela, Nigeria, also. When is it going to happen....

There can be tons of protests, but the people need to rally around someone, like they did the ayatollahs in 1979.

Not sure the Crown Prince is the right choice, but right now he looks like the only choice.

Trump has the USA locked and loaded.

‌#فوری. دقایقی پیش مردم شجاع #کوهدشت تو مراسم خاکسپاری #امیرحسام_خدایاری با ۵۰ رأس مامور سپاه و بسیج درگیر شدند و ببینید چطور همشون رو فراری دادند:)))

صبح هم تمام بنرهای تسلیتی که سپاه آورده بود رو پاره کردند.
درود به شرفتون که پای خون برادرتون وایسادید#جاویدشاه pic.twitter.com/2x7RBlOy4B

— 𓄂✺Yaar - يار ‌‌قدیمی🎗️ (@YaarGhadimi) January 2, 2026

Many in the Iranian diaspora have been theorizing the reason that the Ayatollahs and the IRGC and BASIJ have not opened fire as in the past is

BECAUSE THEY ARE AFRAID OF AMERICA AND ISRAEL

and well they should be.

unlike the feckless Obama who in 2009 hung the protestors out to be killed

This means Trump may accept Israeli strikes against the IRGC if they start to kill protestors en masse

Stop it Trump- we already love you!!

Trump has picked a side at 3 a.m. Mar-a-Lago time, timed for Friday prayers in Iran, to cause maximum reaction. He has correctly understood that his dreams of Middle East peace can never be realized while the IRGC remains in place, seeding chaos. He is encouraging the protesters… pic.twitter.com/OoOVWQGADa

— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) January 2, 2026

fc2112 said:

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There can be tons of protests, but the people need to rally around someone, like they did the ayatollahs in 1979.

Not sure the Crown Prince is the right choice, but right now he looks like the only choice.

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The Ayatollah only flew in after Carter gave him the green light, and Carter convinced the Shah to leave (the latter expected the American President to support him to return once the riots/protests calmed). Thread;

6/ Radical Islamists took to the streets. Carter refused to back the Shah. His own White House assumed Khomeini wouldn’t be so bad — he was a "moderate" who'd even “preserve modernization.”

They were catastrophically wrong. The Ayatollah unleashed terror on his people and ours. pic.twitter.com/eXnpBdYwDG

— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) July 8, 2025

It's more difficult now, but the question in my mind is what was/is on the Belarusian IL-76 transports that flew in this week, or rather were they bringing in some sort of assistance or preparing to fly out wealth? Tough call but my guess is the latter.

To LMCane's post, I do agree that only a handful of strikes at key IRGC facilities around Tehran could at this point prove decisive. Here's hoping, anyway. At least 7 killed so far.

AtticusMatlock said:

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The fact there is still internet on and social media active is interesting in and of itself. Usually the regime would have turned everything off by now.

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the regime has been trying desperately to turn off the internet and social media

coincidentally, the Mossad has stated publicly they are working in Iran.

coincidence!

Trump and Israel have already given green light on more strikes in Iran against military infrastructure so it shouldn't surprise any of us if they scope creep other strikes under auspices of that.

Who?mikejones! said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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YouBet said:

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Gradually then suddenly.

---

If we see IRGC units defecting wholesale, then you'll be right. Until then, sadly, I feel this will be Charlie and Lucy.

---

Didn't the irgc not long ago lose a lot of its command structure?

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They did, at the very tippy top, which while helpful, doesnt take away the thousand of senior managers and middle managers (to use corporate parlance), below them.

Basically, coups tend to occur when a critical mass of Seniorish officers (in the right roles), basically line up in front of their generals and say:

"We're tired of this tihs, get on board or else."

pacecar02 said:

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What was the spark this time? The water shortage?

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Not really just one spark.

currently it takes 1,420,000 Iranian Rials for ONE US DOLLAR


add in water shortages,
electricity shortages,
the CIA,
the Mossad,
Israel and the USA beating the hell out of the Iranian armed forces last June
47 years of Islamist dictatorship raping their women and murdering anyone they wanted to

pretty large crowd!

Marvdasht, Iran: Regime forces have opened live fire on civilians after protesters reportedly took over the police station. Nopo units are shooting from rooftops with AK-47s and heavy weapons, helicopters deployed, entrances and exits sealed by the regime, and mobile internet… pic.twitter.com/P0HXkQ2Au6

— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) January 2, 2026

LMCane said:

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Stop it Trump- we already love you!!

Trump has picked a side at 3 a.m. Mar-a-Lago time, timed for Friday prayers in Iran, to cause maximum reaction. He has correctly understood that his dreams of Middle East peace can never be realized while the IRGC remains in place, seeding chaos. He is encouraging the protesters… pic.twitter.com/OoOVWQGADa

— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) January 2, 2026

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Really looking forward to Clown Dave and the rest of the "experts" chiming in again on this. Can they be any wronger than they were last time?

The impressive thing about Comic Dave’s tweet is that there isn’t a single accurate statement in it.

“Donald Trump has now launched an illegal war of aggression against Iran.”

Nope.

“The risk of an absolute catastrophe is very high”

Nope.

“and the benefits are non existent.”… pic.twitter.com/oUqQi2HwDT

— Max 📟 (@MaxNordau) January 2, 2026

Iran poses not threat to us? lol.

They are the biggest terrorist threat on the planet.

He also said he was not sure if "America would survive" when Trump took out their nukes!

YouBet said:

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Iran poses not threat to us? lol.

They are the biggest terrorist threat on the planet.

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I love it when people who have no idea about history, geopoliticals, economics, and current events like to virtue signal to their friends!