nortex97 said:

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Unfortunately, this is a valid point. Paywall for his substack fyi (I haven't read).

My sense is Trump is in no rush to hit Iran.

The delay is as much about battlefield prep as it is about watching how Tehran reacts to pressure and the threat of force.

He tends to probe first: can coercive diplomacy deliver what a strike would - and does the waiting period… https://t.co/1mk9V7c72M

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 1, 2026

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I would like to see more urgency here. Trump has emboldened the anti-regime protestors. He should not leave them out to dry due to convenience. We need to go here in my worthless opinion.

BadMoonRisin said:

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nortex97 said:

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Unfortunately, this is a valid point. Paywall for his substack fyi (I haven't read).

My sense is Trump is in no rush to hit Iran.

The delay is as much about battlefield prep as it is about watching how Tehran reacts to pressure and the threat of force.

He tends to probe first: can coercive diplomacy deliver what a strike would - and does the waiting period… https://t.co/1mk9V7c72M

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 1, 2026

---

I would like to see more urgency here. Trump has emboldened the anti-regime protestors. He should not leave them out to dry due to convenience. We need to go here in my worthless opinion.

---

I think it has more to do with back channel comms of the gulf states and possibly the exiled Shah. If the gulf states can come together and support the shah when the Mullahs are taken out then I think there's a real possibility of Iran remaining free (free relative to what they are now, it will never be a true democratic country)

Greed for money and power will overcome political ideology everyday of the week then some.

At some point enough of the old world islamic states will come around like UAE, Jordan, Saudi, Qatar to see there is more money in business / commerce than on war.

Iran has had a taste of it before. Should be ready to get back on that capitalist teat.

Agvet12 said:

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BadMoonRisin said:

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nortex97 said:

---

Unfortunately, this is a valid point. Paywall for his substack fyi (I haven't read).

My sense is Trump is in no rush to hit Iran.

The delay is as much about battlefield prep as it is about watching how Tehran reacts to pressure and the threat of force.

He tends to probe first: can coercive diplomacy deliver what a strike would - and does the waiting period… https://t.co/1mk9V7c72M

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 1, 2026

---

I would like to see more urgency here. Trump has emboldened the anti-regime protestors. He should not leave them out to dry due to convenience. We need to go here in my worthless opinion.

---

I think it has more to do with back channel comms of the gulf states and possibly the exiled Shah. If the gulf states can come together and support the shah when the Mullahs are taken out then I think there's a real possibility of Iran remaining free (free relative to what they are now, it will never be a true democratic country)

---

Sure, and I agree. A Free Iran is here for the taking. Trump better not mess this up. That's my opinion.

Long-ish thread:

Many Middle East developments over the past week as the U.S. military buildup continues:

- Additional strike assets en route (F-35As in Rota, EA-18Gs in CENTCOM)
- NSA Bahrain cleared out: all forward-deployed ships (LCS, USCG) got underway
- Deploying THAAD battery + Patriots
-… pic.twitter.com/PwRC7bXCwb

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) February 2, 2026

ISR assets, including P-8 and MQ-4, very active in the Gulf over past few weeks. via @GeoPoliticJosh https://t.co/QloGBgnS7q

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) February 2, 2026

Again the public rhetoric at this point probably is just talk for the sake of talk.

for whatever reason Trump is afraid to actually take down the Mullahs.

either because they worry about someone grabbing the uranium buried throughout the country, or the Sunnis are worried about another enemy being taken out.

somehow tiny Israel was able to devastate Iran in 10 days all by themselves-

and the greatest power in world history is afraid to target the IRGC?

even that would be a meaningful lesson that

"you cant just murder tens of thousands of civilians and pay no consequences"

BadMoonRisin said:

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Agvet12 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Unfortunately, this is a valid point. Paywall for his substack fyi (I haven't read).

My sense is Trump is in no rush to hit Iran.

The delay is as much about battlefield prep as it is about watching how Tehran reacts to pressure and the threat of force.

He tends to probe first: can coercive diplomacy deliver what a strike would - and does the waiting period… https://t.co/1mk9V7c72M

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 1, 2026

---

I would like to see more urgency here. Trump has emboldened the anti-regime protestors. He should not leave them out to dry due to convenience. We need to go here in my worthless opinion.

---

I think it has more to do with back channel comms of the gulf states and possibly the exiled Shah. If the gulf states can come together and support the shah when the Mullahs are taken out then I think there's a real possibility of Iran remaining free (free relative to what they are now, it will never be a true democratic country)

---

Sure, and I agree. A Free Iran is here for the taking. Trump better not mess this up. That's my opinion.

---

Couple of things:
1. Israel has the military power to keep a decapitated Iran in check until it stabilizes.
2. Israel has the power to keep the oil rich purses, Qatar, EAU in line.
3. Israel can punish Hezbollah and others terrorist stogies the satanic Mullahs may use to punish the Iranian people

Trump is not alone on this.And yes its risky but well worth it, if we can flush that cancer down the toilet of history.

LMCane said:

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for whatever reason Trump is afraid to actually take down the Mullahs.

either because they worry about someone grabbing the uranium buried throughout the country, or the Sunnis are worried about another enemy being taken out.

somehow tiny Israel was able to devastate Iran in 10 days all by themselves-

and the greatest power in world history is afraid to target the IRGC?

even that would be a meaningful lesson that

"you cant just murder tens of thousands of civilians and pay no consequences"

---

I think trumpnhas a pretty big aversion to nation building.

He'd prefer to encourage, if you will, behavior change.

Venezuela, he and his team probably correctly read that simply removing Maduro and replacing with Machado would end in chaos. Leaving the existing powerer holders and essentially extorting them to comply with our demands is probably a viable path to change.

Im not so sure it will work in Iran. Americans have a fundamental misunderstanding of how Iranian and mullahs rule, etc., and I dont know that the same sort of extortion as in Venezuela will work in iran.

But, it appears the foundation is the same- leave existing power structures in place and then "encourage" change through various pressure techniques and threats

YouBet said:

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LMCane said:

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for whatever reason Trump is afraid to actually take down the Mullahs.

either because they worry about someone grabbing the uranium buried throughout the country, or the Sunnis are worried about another enemy being taken out.

somehow tiny Israel was able to devastate Iran in 10 days all by themselves-

and the greatest power in world history is afraid to target the IRGC?

even that would be a meaningful lesson that

"you cant just murder tens of thousands of civilians and pay no consequences"

---

He's waiting on defensive fire power to mitigate the final barrage of ICBMs that Iran will launch in a last ditch effort. Looks pretty obvious to me he's made the decision already considering the sheer amount of military hardware they are injecting into the area to do this. He want's to ensure when he takes them out that we and "allies" don't suffer a bunch of collateral damage all over the region, in the process.

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This. Plus if you look at how he handled Maduro, there was a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering to have at least a semblance of a plan for "what comes next" in place in the form of agreements with Maduro's underlings before we moved to grab him. Given that we know (or at least suspect) that Iran may have moved some of their enriched uranium prior to our strikes last year, we don't want that material and any equipment that could be used to make more to disappear into the ether in the hands of a bunch of (soon to be) stateless terrorism supporters in the IRGC. I highly suspect that even as we are publicly discussing the lack of ongoing talks with the mullahs, there are intense backchannel talks going on with people high up in the IRGC to see who we might be able to work with to keep that stuff from falling into the wrong hands in the chaos after we take out the mullahs or flush them into Russia.

Nothing about how the previous strike on Iran or the Venezuela takedown occurred suggests that Trump will move before he has a solid plan that will accomplish the mission and minimize the potential for loss of life by our military personnel. He will take his time, and (God willing), will get it right when it happens.

LMCane said:

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for whatever reason Trump is afraid to actually take down the Mullahs.

either because they worry about someone grabbing the uranium buried throughout the country, or the Sunnis are worried about another enemy being taken out.

somehow tiny Israel was able to devastate Iran in 10 days all by themselves-

and the greatest power in world history is afraid to target the IRGC?

even that would be a meaningful lesson that

"you cant just murder tens of thousands of civilians and pay no consequences"

---

Except for Leopold II, Stalin, Mao, Mugabe, and the Kims of Best Korea.

But we really taught Saddam Hussein a lesson that the world will never forget!

Probably should add Pol Pot to the list. He never really paid the price for the atrocities he inspired .

We shot down a shahed and had to have the navy escort a tanker they tried to stop. Talks Friday won't happen/pr will change.

We shot down an Iranian drone that flew too close to the Abe Lincoln. Was this an attempt by the Iranians to get some propaganda video or was it a probing attack to measure our response?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-military-shoots-down-iranian-drone-approaching-uss-abraham-lincoln-arabian-sea-official-says

nortex97 said:

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We shot down a shahed and had to have the navy escort a tanker they tried to stop. Talks Friday won't happen/pr will change.

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The idea of "talks" with these idiots at this point is silly.

You don't negotiate or make deals with terrorists, which they are, or liars, which they've proven to be time and time again.

Any "deal" they make, they break. 100pct of the time.

Just start taking out mullahs and make sure we install a US friendly government that the people CLEARLY want.

bonfarr said:

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We shot down an Iranian drone that flew too close to the Abe Lincoln. Was this an attempt by the Iranians to get some propaganda video or was it a probing attack to measure our response?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-military-shoots-down-iranian-drone-approaching-uss-abraham-lincoln-arabian-sea-official-says

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Honestly, I think sometimes we give these 70 IQ people too much credit. It was likely just incompetence or really bad judgment.

too bad this wasn't one of the few Iranian Air Force planes left in their inventory

(after the Israelis blew them all up on the ground)

US fighter jet shoots down Iranian drone approaching US aircraft carrier
U.S. tanker was harassed by Iranian small boats, Central Command says

A U.S. fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone as it approached the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the North Arabian Sea on Tuesday, according to a statement from U.S. Central Command. Earlier in the day, a Navy destroyer came to the assistance of a U.S.-flagged tanker that was harassed by multiple Iranian small boats as it transited the Strait of Hormuz.

so as ALWAYS with the @#$@#$ Islamic Republic =

they start taking over tankers and threatening US naval assets before every round of fake negotiations.

rinse and repeat!!

when will the US ever learn?!?!

4 said:

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bonfarr said:

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We shot down an Iranian drone that flew too close to the Abe Lincoln. Was this an attempt by the Iranians to get some propaganda video or was it a probing attack to measure our response?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-military-shoots-down-iranian-drone-approaching-uss-abraham-lincoln-arabian-sea-official-says

---

Honestly, I think sometimes we give these 70 IQ people too much credit. It was likely just incompetence or really bad judgment.

---

the Mullahs and IRGC love to show video of them destroying American aircraft carriers

so they wanted some recent footage to amuse themselves

before we surrender once again in Vienna this Friday during "talks"

Tonkin Gulf, let's go baby!

reports of the Islamic Republic sending a second drone now

so let's review in the last 12 hours the terrorists that we are desperate to negotiate with have:

1. launched six boats to try to hijack an American flagged tanker in the Gulf
2. launched a large Shahed drone to overfly an American carrier
3. demanded the surrender talks be held in Oman rather than in Turkey
4. demanded the only participants are the USA and Iran rather than include the Arabs (because the Arabs will back the Israeli demand to include ballistic missiles with the nukes)
5. may have launched a second drone

and we just sit here after "help is on the way" and "go out into the streets" a month ago.

You act like you know more than Trump and the other folks in charge.

It's coming. Not sure why they want to poke the bear tho.

LMCane said:

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reports of the Islamic Republic sending a second drone now

so let's review in the last 12 hours the terrorists that we are desperate to negotiate with have:

1. launched six boats to try to hijack an American flagged tanker in the Gulf
2. launched a large Shahed drone to overfly an American carrier
3. demanded the surrender talks be held in Oman rather than in Turkey
4. demanded the only participants are the USA and Iran rather than include the Arabs (because the Arabs will back the Israeli demand to include ballistic missiles with the nukes)
5. may have launched a second drone

and we just sit here after "help is on the way" and "go out into the streets" a month ago.

---

Dude...

Take a breath. You'd think somebody who claims to have been in the Air Force would understand positioning of offensive and defensive assets, gathering updated intelligence, prepping the battle space, etc. takes.... time.

On the way = / = immediately.

You're hyperventilating for what will be undoubtedly a very, very messy conflict the likes we haven't seen since... well since Syria went full Syria. And look at what a shining beacon of democracy that place is being run by an admitted and "polished" jihadist. Look what they're doing to our Kurdish "allies" after "winning" their freedom.

You'll get your online war/gore porn with lots of IRGC and mullah deaths soon enough.

ETA: Think about what Al Qaeda / ISIS will do inside Iran once their IRGC handlers are dead or spread to the wind with incredibly easy access via Afghanistan. Al Qaeda has largely been sympathetic and in-bed with Iran vis-a-vis the enemy of my enemy is my friend and broader Islamic ties vs. Judeo-Christian West politics. But that would likely come to an abrupt end, and you'd have an even larger country full of less than intelligent and highly impressionable people who just lost their IRGC paychecks ready to go sow some chaos.

Simply bombing Iran isn't as clean as you often make it out to be on here.

Israel has requested “operational freedom” from the United States to conduct unilateral military action against Iran, as President Donald J. Trump leans towards diplomacy instead of strikes against the Islamic Republic, according to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 3, 2026

Looks like the Israeli's are getting antsy.

JB!98 said:

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Israel has requested “operational freedom” from the United States to conduct unilateral military action against Iran, as President Donald J. Trump leans towards diplomacy instead of strikes against the Islamic Republic, according to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 3, 2026

Looks like the Israeli's are getting antsy.

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These are the exact reports that came out last June

the week before the Israelis bombed Iran with full assistance from the USA

halfastros81 said:

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It's coming. Not sure why they want to poke the bear tho.

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The honest answer to that question, I think, is because they are effing nuts. They are crazy. They are living in an alternate universe. Not very smart people.

This might stir things up a bit.

F-35 from the LINCOLN shoots down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-shoots-down-iranian-drone-approaching-aircraft-carrier-official-says-2026-02-03/

4 said:

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halfastros81 said:

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It's coming. Not sure why they want to poke the bear tho.

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The honest answer to that question, I think, is because they are effing nuts. They are crazy. They are living in an alternate universe. Not very smart people.

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I'll follow up my own comment with an additional point.

You have to remember that these nutbags WANT to usher in the end of the world. They are actively trying to do so.

So when they do something that appears to invite their own doom, that may be exactly what they are trying to do.

Doesn't make sense to the Western world, or the Eastern world, or anyone with a functioning brain, but it makes sense to Abdullah the mental midget.

It's hard to conclude anything else imo.