Supreme Court Decisions for Wednesday, April 29nd

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nortex97
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In reply to Z3phyr • 10:11a, 4/29/26
AG
Z3phyr said:
I think it was the right decision but I worry having every state (by both parties) gerrymandering the hell out of the congressional districts means we will be getting more extremist idiots in congress.

The flip side to that is that we will get less of the 'Congressional Black Caucus' insanity that it has devolved into. Moderate/non-hyper partisan black voices will be more represented, not less. And I really think this is part of what has driven the Democrat party so far left that even Barney Frank laments it's movement at this point (but I don't want to derail the thread with more.).
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BusterAg
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 10:12a, 4/29/26
AG
Ag87H2O said:
So partisan gerrymandering is a fact of politics and is not justiceable, but racial gerrymandering is illegal. It seems to me that under this standard it would be very difficult to prove racial gerrymandering.

Sounds like a huge win for for Republicans. Let the partisan redistricting in red states go forth.

Basically, the safe harbor that SCOTUS puts forward is that if the plaintiffs can provide a map that meets all of the political requirements of the state but has less impact on race, then that is a strong inference of racial discrimination.

Very high bar.
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will25u
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10:13a, 4/29/26
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will25u
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10:15a, 4/29/26
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BusterAg
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:16a, 4/29/26
AG
aggiehawg said:
Logos Stick said:
Liberals arguing that section 2 is not dead.

Dead? No. Gutted and bleeding out as a sole reason for drawing a majority-minority district going forward? Yes.

I would say that VRA section 2 as the sole reason for drawing a majority-minority district is, indeed, dead.

In fact, I think that the opinion basically says that any attempt to specifically try to draw a majority-minority district is impermissible. If a district has any legitimate reason for a district other than race, its fine. But, drawing a district only for race is not.
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Logos Stick
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In reply to will25u • 10:16a, 4/29/26

will25u said:


Every liberal judge is a stain on the SCOTUS. They are nothing but extreme, leftist political hacks.
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Fitch
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10:16a, 4/29/26
AG
Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?
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Colonel Kurtz
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10:21a, 4/29/26
AG
Surely republicans will get off their butts and get to redistricting now, right?
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SoulSlaveAG2005
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In reply to will25u • 10:22a, 4/29/26
AG
will25u said:


GOAT
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Z3phyr
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:23a, 4/29/26
I hope so
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javajaws
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10:24a, 4/29/26
AG
This ruling is bound to be confusing to democrats as they believe gerrymandering to protect or gain a republican seat is racist since they view all republicans as inherently racist.
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TAMU1990
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10:28a, 4/29/26
AG
First Domino fell - VRA. Reduction of house seats for dems incoming. Analysts have said as high as 20 seats, but it will be at least 10.

Second domino - 2028 elections. If Republicans win another blow to Dems trying to stop deportations and leads to the third domino...

Third domino - census. We already know there will be 12-14 seats reapportioned to republicans IF the dems don't
run the census. They already cheated republicans out of 4 seats in 2020.

This is why you see all of the chaos, support for open borders, and fighting against deportations. It's about keeping dem seats in the House, getting votes from a new constituency let in from open borders, and eventually gutting American political norms (packing the Supreme Court, adding DC and PR as states to get 4 more senate seats, amnesty for the 20m+ illegals they let in, etc). It's always about political power. They can't handle that the American people (as a whole) have rejected their radical political views so they have to find ways for force it upon us.
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aggiehawg
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10:29a, 4/29/26
AG
Quote:
"Today's decision should largely put an end to this "disastrous misadventure" in voting-rights jurisprudence. As I explained more than 30 years ago, I would go further and hold that 2 of the Voting Rights Act does not regulate districting at all. The relevant text prohibits States from imposing or applying a "voting qualification," "prerequisite to voting," or "standard, practice, or procedure," in a manner that results in a denial or abridgement of the right to vote based on race. 52 U. S. C. 10301(a). How States draw district lines does not fall within any of those three categories. The words in 2 instead "reach only 'enactments that regulate citizens' access to the ballot or the processes for counting a ballot'; they 'do not include a State's . . . choice of one districting scheme over another.'" Therefore, no 2 challenge to districting should ever succeed."

Gotta love Justice Thomas. Only took you idiots 30 years to understand I was correct.
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Fitch
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 10:32a, 4/29/26
AG
TAMU1990 said:
First Domino fell - VRA. Reduction of house seats for dems incoming. Analysts have said as high as 20 seats, but it will be at least 10.

Second domino - 2028 elections. If Republicans win another blow to Dems trying to stop deportations and leads to the third domino...

Third domino - census. We already know there will be 12-14 seats reapportioned to republicans IF the dems don't run the census. They already cheated republicans out of 4 seats in 2020.

This is why you see all of the chaos, support for open borders, and fighting against deportations. It's about keeping dem seats in the House, getting votes from a new constituency let in from open borders, and eventually gutting American political norms (packing the Supreme Court, adding DC and PR as states to get 4 more senate seats, amnesty for the 20m+ illegals they let in, etc). It's always about political power. They can't handle that the American people (as a whole) have rejected their radical political views so they have to find ways for force it upon us.

Can't forget the voter ID acts, despite being stalled in the senate.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 10:37a, 4/29/26
AG
Quote:
Third domino - census. We already know there will be 12-14 seats reapportioned to republicans IF the dems don't
run the census. They already cheated republicans out of 4 seats in 2020.

Was listening to Sean Spicer's podcast yesterday. Dan Turentine (Dem but not an insane one) was saying 2032 would be the year that the Democratic Party ceases to be a major player in national politics. His reasoning was that more and more states will be under Republican control after the 2030 Census to redistrict the Dems into a minority party in national representation.
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Logos Stick
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10:40a, 4/29/26
This is making the rounds... +12 for the good guys.

assuming its accurate?!

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Aston04
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In reply to Z3phyr • 10:41a, 4/29/26
AG
Z3phyr said:
I think it was the right decision but I worry having every state (by both parties) gerrymandering the hell out of the congressional districts means we will be getting more extremist idiots in congress.

Not necessarily. A gerrymander can create more competitive districts if the majority tries to unpack votes from safe districts (which tend to have more extreme reps).
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Secolobo
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In reply to will25u • 10:42a, 4/29/26
AG
will25u said:

Quote:
Quote:
So Justice Kagan is reported in Molly Hemingway's new book on Justice Alito as having urged liberal members of the Court to slow-walk their dissents in the Dobbs case for months after Justice Alito had finished his majority decision, presumably with the "hope" that the composition of the Court would change and the 5-4 outcome striking down Roe would turn into a 4-4 deadlock that left the lower court's decision in place - affirming Roe.

NOW, it is clear that it was Justice Kagan -- and not Justices Jackson and Sotomayor -- who has held up her dissent in the Louisiana redistricting case, as she has written the only dissent -- with the whispered-about motivation being to push the decision back far enough into the calendar back such that some states don't have time to engage in redistricting before the Nov. elections -- redistricting that might eliminate minority-majority districts and cost Democrats seats.

If both these two anecdotal accounts about Kagan gain traction, it will forever stain her legacy on SCOTUS.


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captkirk
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In reply to Logos Stick • 10:43a, 4/29/26
AG
Logos Stick said:
Liberals arguing that section 2 is not dead.

Wishcasting
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HTownAg98
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In reply to Fitch • 10:44a, 4/29/26
Fitch said:
Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?

The governor of Mississippi has said he would call for a special session for redistricting after the Callais decision. So my guess is that will be happening very soon.
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doubledog
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:45a, 4/29/26
Rapier108 said:
Second and last today is Louisiana v. Callais.

6-3 by Justice Alito

Thomas with a concurring opinion.

Jackson, Sotomayor, and Kagan dissent.
Quote:
A group of voters describing themselves as "non African American" had challenged the map that the state drew in 2024 after a federal court struck down the previous map on the ground that the previous map violated the Voting Rights Act.

The court rules that the 2024 map, which created a second majority-black district, was "an unconstitutional racial gerrymander."

The court does not strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act as unconstitutional.


It does put limits on Section 2 and that is a good start.
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captkirk
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In reply to will25u • 10:47a, 4/29/26
AG
will25u said:

This can't be true. SCOTUS is above politics. Chief Justice Roberts promised us.
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Z3phyr
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In reply to Aston04 • 10:57a, 4/29/26
It depends on how aggressive they get with it. Most of the time if you give the other party one district in the state you can put a ton of margin on every other district you "flip"
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Windy City Ag
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In reply to Fitch • 10:57a, 4/29/26
AG
Quote:
Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?


From everything I have read, the procedural barriers on the state level are complicated enough that Callais won't have a huge impact on the upcoming midterms. Florida was the last big domino to fall and they are cutting it close on that front.

Follow on elections will of course be much more impacted by the hard to gauge reverberations from this decision.

The biggest takeaway to me is that the electoral map easy pickings have already been seized at this point, hence the dwindling number of contested seats. That is the concern with the Florida redistricting . . . .it is complicated at this point to shut down Dem leaning districts without diluting other areas and accidentally creating new blue zones.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Joseydog • 11:01a, 4/29/26
AG
Joseydog said:
Joseydog said:
Given that SCOTUS summarily overturned the Texas redistricting decision on the merits without an actual opinion on Monday, I suspect that we will receive a decision on Louisiana v Callais today. Bye VRA.


Nailed it!

That was pretty obvious...
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Z3phyr
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11:11a, 4/29/26
Using AI so hopefully these numbers are right but currently states with a Trifecta in state government
-Republican 23 states that hold 220 congressional seats
-Democrats 17 states that hold 187 seats
10 split states hold 28 seats that is currently split 15R and 13D

It is a little harder for republican do draw the districts to completely cancel out democratic city seats for some reason even though democrats have no problem drawing pinwheel districts. 235-200 could be a fully gerrymandered map but I would guess between Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Florida the Ds would get another 10 or so seats. I imagine Michigan would be a pretty risky state to try to draw 100% dem seats as well though

So somewhere along the lines of 225-210
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Hogties
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:12a, 4/29/26
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Third domino - census. We already know there will be 12-14 seats reapportioned to republicans IF the dems don't
run the census. They already cheated republicans out of 4 seats in 2020.

Was listening to Sean Spicer's podcast yesterday. Dan Turentine (Dem but not an insane one) was saying 2032 would be the year that the Democratic Party ceases to be a major player in national politics. His reasoning was that more and more states will be under Republican control after the 2030 Census to redistrict the Dems into a minority party in national representation.


I choose to believe this to be correct.

This is why the democrats are for "maximum political warfare" today to erase political norms in 2029-30 (assuming they win the presidency and have narrow majorities in the house and senate). If the democrats are not able to control the census, pack the court, blow up the filibuster, they are destined to be an "inside the beltway" party that is relegated to representing only deep blue urban areas inside urban highway loops within a decade. Let us pray.
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LeonardSkinner
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11:13a, 4/29/26
Justice Kagan loves to hear herself talk. 2/3 of that decision is her dissent.
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solishu
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In reply to Z3phyr • 11:18a, 4/29/26
AG
Z3phyr said:
I think it was the right decision but I worry having every state (by both parties) gerrymandering the hell out of the congressional districts means we will be getting more extremist idiots in congress.

It depends on if the gerrymanders optimize seat-safety or number of potential wins. If they prioritize safety, then yeah, we'll get a bunch more extremists, but if they optimize for potential wins then there may actually be more competitive districts which may reduce the number of extremists who win in the long run.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to solishu • 11:21a, 4/29/26
I'll be happy if it results in democrats no longer holding so many republican seats in Congress. At least McConnell will be gone.
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BusterAg
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In reply to Windy City Ag • 11:22a, 4/29/26
AG
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?


From everything I have read, the procedural barriers on the state level are complicated enough that Callais won't have a huge impact on the upcoming midterms. Florida was the last big domino to fall and they are cutting it close on that front.

Follow on elections will of course be much more impacted by the hard to gauge reverberations from this decision.

The biggest takeaway to me is that the electoral map easy pickings have already been seized at this point, hence the dwindling number of contested seats. That is the concern with the Florida redistricting . . . .it is complicated at this point to shut down Dem leaning districts without diluting other areas and accidentally creating new blue zones.

1) The reverberations for follow on elections are not at all hard to gauge. This is wishful thinking
2) There are a ton of seats to be gained by the GOP under the death of disparate impact.
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boulderaggie
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11:23a, 4/29/26
AG
Kagan should resign immediately.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to BusterAg • 11:26a, 4/29/26
AG
BusterAg said:
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?


From everything I have read, the procedural barriers on the state level are complicated enough that Callais won't have a huge impact on the upcoming midterms. Florida was the last big domino to fall and they are cutting it close on that front.

Follow on elections will of course be much more impacted by the hard to gauge reverberations from this decision.

The biggest takeaway to me is that the electoral map easy pickings have already been seized at this point, hence the dwindling number of contested seats. That is the concern with the Florida redistricting . . . .it is complicated at this point to shut down Dem leaning districts without diluting other areas and accidentally creating new blue zones.

1) The reverberations for follow on elections are not at all hard to gauge. This is wishful thinking
2) There are a ton of seats to be gained by the GOP under the death of disparate impact.

Trump has made significant inroads in black voter support. That once completely reliable voting block for Dems is eroding. Will that continue? If it does, would fighting for majority-minority in every state even make sense anymore?
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Windy City Ag
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In reply to Hogties • 11:27a, 4/29/26
AG
Quote:
I choose to believe this to be correct.


This sounds like James Carville type predictions that were coming out around Obama's election. Remember his 40 More Years: How Democrats Will Rule The Next Generation book?

The reality is that true dedicated Republicans are a small minority. Polls have shown for years that about 25% of folks say they are dedicated Republicans, 27-28% say they are dedicated Democrats, and nearly half of America views themselves as independent and swing to and for depending on who they are mad at.

No amount of redistricting will change this fact. The GOP craps the bed like they did in 2008 then there will likely be another unified Democrat control of Washington. People that say otherwise are just trying to back into their fantasies.

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Queso1
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11:28a, 4/29/26
AG
Tip: Reddit is comedy gold right now.

Load "AntonioBanderassatisfactiongif",8,1
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