She certainly has no idea Gerry is a real person, has no idea that a salamander is not a person, and has no idea what either looks like and what the hell all this nonsense about suffrage is but it needs to stop!

She's not a freaking botanist for crying out loud. She's the queen of SCOTUS, to deny her is just white privilege extended its systemic racist tentacles.

IDaggie06 said:

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Polymarket and Kalshi hardly budging with this Supreme Court news. That's a bit disappointing. They are still showing over 80% chance of dems winning house.

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Why would it budge? Many candidate filing deadlines have passed and then it takes time to redraw a map. One GA governor candidate called on the GA state congress to redraw their maps...and early voting for their primary has already started.

IDaggie06 said:

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Polymarket and Kalshi hardly budging with this Supreme Court news. That's a bit disappointing. They are still showing over 80% chance of dems winning house.

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Best to wait till states redraw. If you get 4 states out of Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Bama to redistrict than those odds will flip in favor of Rs

Also they are still counting on Virginia's new map which may be shot down

If you get a combined of both of the above, Rs win the house almost guaranteed. If you just get 4 states to redistrict, and Virginia goes through, I would put the odds on Rs at 55 to 60% to win it

Man I pray it is a combo of the two, that would be the funniest sh** ever, you know how fun it will be to hear the Dems cry like babies? It will be epic

A lot of states cannot redistrict in time for 2026 midterms. Too late.

Georgia I know is one. Primary voting is already happening.

OldArmy71 said:

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Anyone who thinks this decision means the Democrats will fade from national power is dreaming.

If they get in power in the mid-terms they will try to pack the Supreme Court and simply change this decision.

They will also add two new Democrat states.

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I do not see them winning all three at once anytime in the next 14 years. They keep going further left. Dems will have a major battle on their hands to win 2028 Presidential election, especially if economy turns around

Also they will not win the senate in 2026 and looking at the senates up for grabs in 2028 leads me to believe they will not take it. Toss ups that year are Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona

Warnock is not popular at all, Fetterman is not popular with Dems, Nevada is trending red, Ohio is trending red, Ted Budd is an incumbent that is not disliked, Arizona is still a toss up

House will also be hard for them in 2028, with Utah, Mississippi, Louisiana, Bama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and possibly Kentucky redrawing. Also Nebraska and India could redraw

House gets even harder for Dems after 2030 census when red states will gain seats and Dems states losing seats

It's unlikely we'll see Callais today, though I wouldn't rule it out completely.

Quote:

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Also they are still counting on Virginia's new map which may be shot down

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The court refusing to stay the order prohibiting the certification of the vote indicates they, the court, believe the plaintiffs challenging it will prevail. So that new "map" will not go into effect.

Jessy255 said:

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It's unlikely we'll see Callais today, though I wouldn't rule it out completely.

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Interesting to see how even in smaller elections how the past effects of lulac and maldef suing to force school districts in small towns to change from at-large elections to drawn-out districts to gain "representation" from minorities.

Looks like this will have more impact in 2028 given primaries and early voting have started in a lot of states. Census in 2030 will/should favor some red states getting extra seats that have seen higher population growth and migration away from blue states.

So Dems may still take the House in 2026 and as long as the Reps can hold the Senate shouldn't be able to do too much damage, endless string of impeachments though likely

4stringAg said:

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Looks like this will have more impact in 2028 given primaries and early voting have started in a lot of states. Census in 2030 will/should favor some red states getting extra seats that have seen higher population growth and migration away from blue states.

So Dems may still take the House in 2026 and as long as the Reps can hold the Senate shouldn't be able to do too much damage, endless string of impeachments though likely

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And multiple shutdowns and no reconciliation bills.

You can actually go 35-3. Just make this district for Austin and San Antonio.

You can also just have 1 Houston district actually. Trump wins every district by >11 even in 2020 on a 35-3 map. District voted for Harris by 37%. It's precisely 764k population. https://t.co/r7q1VMCjOk pic.twitter.com/fnXHUE1LA6

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) April 29, 2026

I can draw you maps that are
Iowa: 4-0
KY: 6-0
AL: 7-0
LA: 6-0
SC: 9-0
IN: 8-0
FL: 24-4
TX: 35-3
MO: 8-0

Without even trying. Net Safe/Likely R seats: 22 https://t.co/u2ByFqct4b

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) April 29, 2026

Question for our Democratic posters...

If two Black Republicans were elected with a the new district map in LA, would that be considered to be racial representation? Blacks make up about 30% of the LA population and 2 Black Republicans (out of 6 total) would represent 30% of the congressional representation.

Justice Alito has ordered a response by 4:00pm tomorrow. https://t.co/4EtsvApSpQ pic.twitter.com/srZVNefnjP

— SCOTUS Wire (@scotus_wire) April 29, 2026

🚨 Callais Appellees haved asked the Supreme Court to immediately issue its judgment striking down Louisiana’s congressional map, warning the normal 32-day wait could delay a remedial map for the 2026 elections. pic.twitter.com/mb4fuoRE4i

— SCOTUS Wire (@scotus_wire) April 29, 2026

Justice Alito may grant this application himself as the justice over the 5th Circuit, but he will likely refer the application to the whole bench.

Read the filing here: https://t.co/WwO1jiJhiA

— SCOTUS Wire (@scotus_wire) April 29, 2026

Just as a passing thought, the NYT has been alerting its readers for a couple of weeks that all four Republicans in the House are retiring, which means that the Republican Party is once more clearly a terrible and racist group.....or something like that.

Potential New Louisiana Congressional Maps

Option 1:
🔴 Republicans: 5 (+1)
🔵 Democrats: 1 (-1)

Option 2:
🔴 Republicans: 6 (+2)
🔵 Democrats: 0 (-2)

(+/- vs current map) https://t.co/knQuTMCukg pic.twitter.com/ZOsHjlnWhw

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) April 30, 2026

2026NCAggies said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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Polymarket and Kalshi hardly budging with this Supreme Court news. That's a bit disappointing. They are still showing over 80% chance of dems winning house.

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Best to wait till states redraw. If you get 4 states out of Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Bama to redistrict than those odds will flip in favor of Rs

Also they are still counting on Virginia's new map which may be shot down

If you get a combined of both of the above, Rs win the house almost guaranteed. If you just get 4 states to redistrict, and Virginia goes through, I would put the odds on Rs at 55 to 60% to win it

Man I pray it is a combo of the two, that would be the funniest sh** ever, you know how fun it will be to hear the Dems cry like babies? It will be epic

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When can the states redraw? Too late for the midterms?

It's not too late for any of them that I have seen. Louisiana is suspending the primaries tomorrow to redraw. If it had been June when released as thought it would have been too late.

Great (long) thread from the Iowa solicitor general here for those with access to X, he lays out what Alito wrote/impact very clearly:

First, look at the holding and the line up. The Holding explains that the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to make a new majority-minority district. Using race failed to satisfy strict scrutiny. This is a classic 6-3 Republican appointees vs. Democrat appointee lineup pic.twitter.com/84gq5MuOWa

— Eric W. (@EWess92) April 29, 2026

Finally, Justice Alito addresses the arguments in the dissent. This section is efficient, and cuts with a scalpel. Justice Kagan goes on for longer than the majority but struggles to evade those persuasive two pages. pic.twitter.com/k1wYuB4hKk

— Eric W. (@EWess92) April 29, 2026

doubledog said:

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Question for our Democratic posters...

If two Black Republicans were elected with a the new district map in LA, would that be considered to be racial representation? Blacks make up about 30% of the LA population and 2 Black Republicans (out of 6 total) would represent 30% of the congressional representation.

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No, because white people would be the ones that elected them. Meaning that Black people still didn't get to pick their representatives.

Wasn't Alabama forced to include an extra black seat a few years ago? Is there time to go for broke there too?