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There are a ton of seats to be gained by the GOP under the death of disparate impact.

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Writing at a time when the Democratic Party was dominant in much of Texas, the Court noted that a "white-dominated organization," which had "effective control" over candidate slating within that party, had engaged in " 'racial campaign tactics in white precincts to defeat candidates who had the over-whelming support of the black community,'" thereby " 'effectively exclud[ing]' " the black community "'from participation in the Democratic primary selection process.'" White, 412 U. S., at 766767. The Court likewise cited evidence that the legislature had "invidiously excluded Mexican-Americans from effective participation in political life, specifically in the election of representatives to the Texas House of Representatives."

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BusterAg said:

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In short, 2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race. Not only does this interpretation follow from the plain text of 2, but it is consistent with the limited authority that the Fifteenth Amendment confers.

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A plaintiff [alleging racial discrimination] may carry its disentanglement burden by offering an alternative map that achieves all the State's objectivesincluding partisan advantage and any of the State's other political goalsat least as well as the State's map.

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Disparate impact is dead. Seeking minority-majority districts specifically is dead.

The states can gerrymander at will, as long as race is not the main reason for the gerrymander. States are prevented from considering race as the primary driver for gerrymander.

Republicans can re-draw districts with zero regard for race going forward.

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This is cope. What SCOTUS just did was hand the gop the house for a generation or more starting in 2028

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Z3phyr said:

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Using AI so hopefully these numbers are right but currently states with a Trifecta in state government
-Republican 23 states that hold 220 congressional seats
-Democrats 17 states that hold 187 seats
10 split states hold 28 seats that is currently split 15R and 13D

It is a little harder for republican do draw the districts to completely cancel out democratic city seats for some reason even though democrats have no problem drawing pinwheel districts. 235-200 could be a fully gerrymandered map but I would guess between Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Florida the Ds would get another 10 or so seats. I imagine Michigan would be a pretty risky state to try to draw 100% dem seats as well though

So somewhere along the lines of 225-210

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According to simulations run by FiveThirtyEight's "Atlas of Redistricting" projectwhich modeled this exact scenario of a nationwide partisan gerrymandering arms racethe resulting 435-seat House map would look roughly like this:

Republicans: ~262 seatsDemocrats: ~173 seats

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Z3phyr said:

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I think it was the right decision but I worry having every state (by both parties) gerrymandering the hell out of the congressional districts means we will be getting more extremist idiots in congress.

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A few underrated follow-ons from this voting rights decision:

(1) it will eliminate a lot of the very worst members of Congress because members elected from majority minority districts conspicuously tended to ignore the interests of White voters in their districts and to engage… pic.twitter.com/Bt1xsLzIEQ

— Jeremy Carl (@realJeremyCarl) April 29, 2026

Section 2 bans discriminatory voting practices generally, it doesn't mention redistricting. No one has ever suggested that Section 2 itself should be struck down. Only its application to redistricting via Gingles was in question.

That said, the only way the Court could've gone…

— SCOTUS Wire (@scotus_wire) April 29, 2026

I remember repeatedly arguing more than three decades ago in college that the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Voting Rights Act creating majority minority districts was an unconstitutional Democrat gerrymander. (Yes, I was an elections nerd even then).

Finally, we have… pic.twitter.com/A6TGQvlky5

— Jeremy Carl (@realJeremyCarl) April 29, 2026

aggiehawg said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Well the obligatory follow on question is when do we start to see a mass-redistricting kick off (beyond what's happened so far) to make the cut off times for the mid-terms?

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From everything I have read, the procedural barriers on the state level are complicated enough that Callais won't have a huge impact on the upcoming midterms. Florida was the last big domino to fall and they are cutting it close on that front.

Follow on elections will of course be much more impacted by the hard to gauge reverberations from this decision.

The biggest takeaway to me is that the electoral map easy pickings have already been seized at this point, hence the dwindling number of contested seats. That is the concern with the Florida redistricting . . . .it is complicated at this point to shut down Dem leaning districts without diluting other areas and accidentally creating new blue zones.

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1) The reverberations for follow on elections are not at all hard to gauge. This is wishful thinking
2) There are a ton of seats to be gained by the GOP under the death of disparate impact.

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Trump has made significant inroads in black voter support. That once completely reliable voting block for Dems is eroding. Will that continue? If it does, would fighting for majority-minority in every state even make sense anymore?

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Windy City Ag said:

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I choose to believe this to be correct.

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This sounds like James Carville type predictions that were coming out around Obama's election. Remember his 40 More Years: How Democrats Will Rule The Next Generation book?

The reality is that true dedicated Republicans are a small minority. Polls have shown for years that about 25% of folks say they are dedicated Republicans, 27-28% say they are dedicated Democrats, and nearly half of America views themselves as independent and swing to and for depending on who they are mad at.

No amount of redistricting will change this fact. The GOP craps the bed like they did in 2008 then there will likely be another unified Democrat control of Washington. People that say otherwise are just trying to back into their fantasies.

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Windy City Ag said:

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There are a ton of seats to be gained by the GOP under the death of disparate impact.

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Not really for the reason I just elaborated. Maybe there is 5-10 years of advantage if that . . .

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Windy City Ag said:

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The only way I believe this is by buying into the argument that there are not many actual swing voters left.

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Bulldog73 said:

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And it seems to me that any computer algorithm used in redistricting maps that incorporates race as a criteria is now subject to being attacked as being unconstitutional on that basis alone.

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BonfireNerd04 said:

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Trying to distinguish between "racial gerrymandering" and "partisan gerrymandering" is virtually impossible when one particular racial group consistently votes in 90% lockstep with one party.

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If Republicans aggressively gerrymander the South and eliminate up to 10 Democratic seats under a narrowed VRA, Democrats could respond in blue states.

For example, this 52-0 California map could become legal, flipping four seats from 🔴 to 🔵. pic.twitter.com/1zmpQHMRRf

— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) April 29, 2026

The Supreme Court has been chipping away at our elections for years. It is clearly carrying out Donald Trump’s will with this decision.

New York has always led the fight for voting rights and we’ll lead again.

I’m working with the Legislature to change New York’s redistricting… https://t.co/OUIVD9vMl7

— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) April 29, 2026

YUUUUUUUGE WIN FROM THE SUPREME COURT!!!😎🇺🇸🥳🥳🥳 —NO MORE RACE-BASED CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS!!! pic.twitter.com/mvhkBgPsaQ

— il Donaldo Trumpo (@PapiTrumpo) April 29, 2026

I may have understated what we’re allowed to get away with next.

There’s no reason for Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Louisiana itself to all draw new congressional maps immediately.

The Supreme Court may have just overturned one congressional… https://t.co/30Vz7E4lKu pic.twitter.com/gpBXDh1k7J

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) April 29, 2026

Sean is right. For decades, the Left has been astroturfed by a broken status quo.

• The old VRA regime converted identity politics into more than a dozen permanent Congressional seats.
• Counting noncitizens in apportionment shifts House seats and electoral votes to blue… https://t.co/J2spfCUSUG

— Eric Schmitt (@Eric_Schmitt) April 29, 2026

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Seems pretty likely that any MS district configuration adopted for "partisan" / "political" reasons is now lawful, regardless of the consequences for minority voters. I don't see how anyone could win a claim against the map on the left under Callais.

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This is the key passage in Louisiana v. Callais. While not overturning section 2 of the VRA, it construes it into near-irrelevance. All minority voters are entitled to is that the map drawers NOT use race as a metric in drawing their maps.

No more majority-minority districts. pic.twitter.com/ieOV4XxgGT

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) April 29, 2026