Iran has not yet capitulated, what is the exit strategy?

22,736 Views | 365 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by AxelFoley85
Sq 17
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It's not necessarily good for you
It's just a report that wants to make it sound like the current situation is manageable and not to panic

For the most part it is working hopefully something gets solved before the panicking begins
AggieEP
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Logos Stick said:

Vehemently disagree. We spent 8.5 years in Iraq fighting an insurgency, AFTER the shock and awe! We spent 20 YEARS IN Afghanistan. And those were countries where we were "in control" and had boots on the ground.

Except for Iran lashing out at the Arab countries, we knew exactly what was going to happen here.


I should have clarified, but your examples are different.

In both Afghanistan and Iraq organized state level resistance was destroyed in a matter of 2-3 weeks. When I say that our plans are for complete destruction of the enemy's will to fight that is a direct quotation from our doctrine that we train on. Any sort of COIN ops that spring up after the fact are a new phase of the operation and include different plans.

In Iran what surprises me and others is that there is still organized (although perhaps decentralized to ensure survivability) state resistance. Unlike Iraq we were unable to effect a total collapse of their state military capes. Of course a HUGE difference was the ground invasion in Iraq, and that's why I say that this operation shows the continued limitations of air and sea power to achieve what ground power can do. This isn't COIN in Iran, the state still survives and there are limited options remaining to get them to capitulate.
YouBet
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AG
I was never much of a fan of doing this in the first place although I always understood why we were doing it. There are larger events in motion here.

At this point though, we need to **** or get off the pot. Or at least quit with the threats or plans that go nowhere.
Sq 17
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First bombing run turned out well
As usual The Sequel is not as good
YouBet
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AG
Muddyfeet said:

5Amp said:

Last week was a record week in oil sales in the USA as we continue to load very large vessels of Texas crude out and ship overseas to Asia and Europe.

Hope this stays close for another few months if not 2026 thru 2028.

This is really great for the red producing states like TEXAS

Grok
Approximately 6.44 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for the most recently reported week (ending April 24, 2026).
This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data released on April 29, 2026. It was a record high, up sharply from 4.798 million bpd the prior week (an increase of about 1.64 million bpd).
Key Context:
Crude oil exports (not including petroleum products): 6.438 million bpd.
Total petroleum exports (crude + products like gasoline, distillates, etc.): Hit a record 14.18 million bpd that same week.
This surge contributed to the U.S. becoming a net crude exporter on a weekly basis for the first time on record, amid global supply disruptions (e.g., related to events in the Middle East).




How is this better for Texas? Sounds great, but as an average Texan, how does this help me? Is someone paying the state a tariff? Is the State taxing it? Loading fees to the Port of Houston possibly?


It's great if you work in O&G and/or own O&G stock.
captkirk
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AG
EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
stallion6
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AG
EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".

Read a little maybe. There are clear objectives. Don't let Iran have a nuclear weapon, destroy their navy, and reduce their offensive weapons. The air and naval campaign clearly are focused on achieving those two outcomes. You clearly have never served.
jwhaby
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TrumpsBarber said:

Claude! said:

YellAg2004 said:

Can someone explain to me why Iran is allowed to even have a say about the Strait at this point?

What do they have that is allowing them to close the Strait, and why have we not turned it into a smoldering hole or an artificial reef?


They have a say because they have the threat of mines, boats, missiles, and drones and because the owners of large shipping vessels are risk averse.

Most maritime insurance policies exclude coverage for Acts of War although the premiums are sky high. Those ship owners who purchase special coverage for large sums of money are also reluctant to screw the pooch. This is Iran's leverage.


If Iran really wants to cause trouble, they will destroy the oil resources, desalination plants, and AI infrastructure of their gulf neighbors. The US can't defend everyone.
BenFiasco14
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AG
Top men are working on it as we speak
CNN is an enemy of the state and should be treated as such.
5Amp
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Muddyfeet said:

5Amp said:

Last week was a record week in oil sales in the USA as we continue to load very large vessels of Texas crude out and ship overseas to Asia and Europe.

Hope this stays close for another few months if not 2026 thru 2028.

This is really great for the red producing states like TEXAS

Grok
Approximately 6.44 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for the most recently reported week (ending April 24, 2026).
This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data released on April 29, 2026. It was a record high, up sharply from 4.798 million bpd the prior week (an increase of about 1.64 million bpd).
Key Context:
Crude oil exports (not including petroleum products): 6.438 million bpd.
Total petroleum exports (crude + products like gasoline, distillates, etc.): Hit a record 14.18 million bpd that same week.
This surge contributed to the U.S. becoming a net crude exporter on a weekly basis for the first time on record, amid global supply disruptions (e.g., related to events in the Middle East).




How is this better for Texas? Sounds great, but as an average Texan, how does this help me? Is someone paying the state a tariff? Is the State taxing it? Loading fees to the Port of Houston possibly?

Tax revenue from employment, fees for water ways, rail, and highways, taxes on refined fuels. literally filling the coffer with billions of dollars. Also, these companies are establishing lasting business relationships that will continue on long after the SOH is opened. I dare to say Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana will keep 30% or better of the customers they currently are dealing with once they prove the USA can be a viable, competitive source for crude oils, refined products, and LPGs.

Bessent and Trump know this, revenues generated from former Iranian oil customers will pay for the shells used to blow up Iranian assets.

Those tankers are making their way to America ports, specifically the states I named. Great news for producing red states.
Sq 17
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BenFiasco14 said:

Top men are working on it as we speak




Top men
RangerRick9211
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AG
5Amp said:

Muddyfeet said:

5Amp said:

Last week was a record week in oil sales in the USA as we continue to load very large vessels of Texas crude out and ship overseas to Asia and Europe.

Hope this stays close for another few months if not 2026 thru 2028.

This is really great for the red producing states like TEXAS

Grok
Approximately 6.44 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for the most recently reported week (ending April 24, 2026).
This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data released on April 29, 2026. It was a record high, up sharply from 4.798 million bpd the prior week (an increase of about 1.64 million bpd).
Key Context:
Crude oil exports (not including petroleum products): 6.438 million bpd.
Total petroleum exports (crude + products like gasoline, distillates, etc.): Hit a record 14.18 million bpd that same week.
This surge contributed to the U.S. becoming a net crude exporter on a weekly basis for the first time on record, amid global supply disruptions (e.g., related to events in the Middle East).




How is this better for Texas? Sounds great, but as an average Texan, how does this help me? Is someone paying the state a tariff? Is the State taxing it? Loading fees to the Port of Houston possibly?

Tax revenue from employment, fees for water ways, rail, and highways, taxes on refined fuels. literally filling the coffer with billions of dollars. Also, these companies are establishing lasting business relationships that will continue on long after the SOH is opened. I dare to say Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana will keep 30% or better of the customers they currently are dealing with once they prove the USA can be a viable, competitive source for crude oils, refined products, and LPGs.

Bessent and Trump know this, revenues generated from former Iranian oil customers will pay for the shells used to blow up Iranian assets.

Those tankers are making their way to America ports, specifically the states I named. Great news for producing red states.


Our crude isn't ME crude, though. Refiners need specific stock and India/Asia aren't built for ours. I dare so lol to your 30%.

Exports have jumped for all distillates from the US. But that has also squeezed the US consumer on gas, diesel and LPG. There's still a global shortage. We do have an export ceiling.

So, happy the feds and state are lining their coffers. Sucks for us normal people trying to fire up the grill or drive anywhere.
mjschiller
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AG
We need to allow Israel to kill all the Iran military leaders and their sec. of state.
Marvin J. Schiller
5Amp
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RangerRick9211 said:

5Amp said:

Muddyfeet said:

5Amp said:

Last week was a record week in oil sales in the USA as we continue to load very large vessels of Texas crude out and ship overseas to Asia and Europe.

Hope this stays close for another few months if not 2026 thru 2028.

This is really great for the red producing states like TEXAS

Grok
Approximately 6.44 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for the most recently reported week (ending April 24, 2026).
This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data released on April 29, 2026. It was a record high, up sharply from 4.798 million bpd the prior week (an increase of about 1.64 million bpd).
Key Context:
Crude oil exports (not including petroleum products): 6.438 million bpd.
Total petroleum exports (crude + products like gasoline, distillates, etc.): Hit a record 14.18 million bpd that same week.
This surge contributed to the U.S. becoming a net crude exporter on a weekly basis for the first time on record, amid global supply disruptions (e.g., related to events in the Middle East).




How is this better for Texas? Sounds great, but as an average Texan, how does this help me? Is someone paying the state a tariff? Is the State taxing it? Loading fees to the Port of Houston possibly?

Tax revenue from employment, fees for water ways, rail, and highways, taxes on refined fuels. literally filling the coffer with billions of dollars. Also, these companies are establishing lasting business relationships that will continue on long after the SOH is opened. I dare to say Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana will keep 30% or better of the customers they currently are dealing with once they prove the USA can be a viable, competitive source for crude oils, refined products, and LPGs.

Bessent and Trump know this, revenues generated from former Iranian oil customers will pay for the shells used to blow up Iranian assets.

Those tankers are making their way to America ports, specifically the states I named. Great news for producing red states.


Our crude isn't ME crude, though. Refiners need specific stock and India/Asia aren't built for ours. I dare so lol to your 30%.

Exports have jumped for all distillates from the US. But that has also squeezed the US consumer on gas, diesel and LPG. There's still a global shortage. We do have an export ceiling.

So, happy the feds and state are lining their coffers. Sucks for us normal people trying to fire up the grill or drive anywhere.

not only feds, state, and local governments, It's also very profitable for the smart, professional businessman and engineering types, not so much for some in other fields I suppose.

anywho, you should probably research before rattling off garbage AS YOU LAUGH at my conservative 30% estimate.

Grok
Yes, Alaska grade crude (primarily Alaska North Slope or ANS crude) is generally compatible with many Asian and especially Indian refineries, though it may require some operational adjustments in less complex facilities.

Key Properties of Alaska North Slope (ANS) Crude
ANS is a medium sour crude:
API gravity: Typically 2932 (medium density; flows reasonably well but not as light as WTI ~3941).
Sulfur content: Around 0.91.1% (sour, but not extremely high like some heavy Middle Eastern grades at 23%+).
This profile yields a balanced mix of products (good for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline) but needs desulfurization units.
Compatibility with Asian/Indian Refineries
Asian refiners (e.g., Japan, South Korea): They have recently purchased ANS cargoes, especially amid Middle East supply disruptions. Shorter shipping times from Alaska (~815 days faster than Middle East routes) are a big plus. However, some Japanese refiners note technical challenges like higher metallic impurities, which may need extra processing equipment for large volumes.
Indian refineries: Highly capable due to high complexity. India's largest complex (Reliance Jamnagar) has the world's highest Nelson Complexity Index (~21.1) and has processed over 216 different crude grades, including heavy/sour varieties from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. It handles wide variations in API gravity and sulfur content efficiently, turning lower-quality crudes into high-value fuels.
Most modern Indian refineries (e.g., those of IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, and Reliance) are configured for medium-to-heavy sour crudes common from the Middle East and Russia. ANS fits well within this rangeit's not overly heavy or ultra-sour, so blending or minor adjustments suffice. India already imports significant U.S. crude (including various grades), and its refiners have flexibility for spot purchases.
Practical Considerations
Logistics: Shorter Pacific routes benefit Asia vs. longer Middle East voyages. Exports from Valdez, Alaska, have gone to Asia historically and recently.
Economics: ANS can be attractive during disruptions (e.g., Hormuz issues), though it competes on price with Russian or U.S. Gulf crudes.
Limitations: Older or simpler refineries might need blending with lighter/sweeter crudes for optimal yields, but this is standard industry practice.
In summary, yesit's capable and has been used successfully, particularly in complex Indian facilities and select Asian ones. Compatibility depends on the specific refinery's configuration, but India's refining sector is among the most adaptable globally. For current market details, check trade data from EIA or shipping trackers.
GeeBee
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AG
Iran's exit strategy?

72 virgins
samurai_science
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Eliminatus said:

AggieEP said:

I can tell you with 100% confidence that our military planners were not preparing for siege and blockade warfare. Our doctrine calls for overwhelming force application to immediately break the will of the enemy.

Sieges and blockades can be effective but they also run the risk of creating humanitarian crises, and while I'm no bleeding heart, it's not a good look for the US which goes to war in the name of freedom and justice to starve people until they give up.

The flawed assumption from the beginning was that icing the Ayatollah was going to prompt regime change and accommodation with the West. That hasn't happened and it seems like there is not a number of guys we can kill to make that happen.


The hard truth is that we ended up like Russia in 2022. We expected to roll in and slap around a few holdouts and declare victory and we all wave American flags. Instead, Iran decided to say nah and fight back. Who knew the enemy gets a say in a military campaign? Now we are stuck with our dicks in the wind scrambling for some sense of something we can slap a "WE DID IT!" sticker on and move on.

Iran zigged when we expected them to zag and we were arrogant enough to not have any real strategies or logistics setup for this eventuality. That last part is not even debatable.

So will we win? Undoubtedly. The question is just a matter of where we settle and whether that "win" will actually be worth a damn in the mid to long term future.

The problem is the people are not willing to fight for freedom, so they will continue to live in a Islamic dictatorship and be slaughtered every few years when they protest. F em
Ag1188
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AG
Petrodollar going to be ditched by the world. Good luck America once that happens.

At least Iran has a democracy now. Wait….our incompetent leaders killed all the Iran moderates behind the Ayatollah who could've delivered Iran a democracy.
Ag1188
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AG
samurai_science said:

Eliminatus said:

AggieEP said:

I can tell you with 100% confidence that our military planners were not preparing for siege and blockade warfare. Our doctrine calls for overwhelming force application to immediately break the will of the enemy.

Sieges and blockades can be effective but they also run the risk of creating humanitarian crises, and while I'm no bleeding heart, it's not a good look for the US which goes to war in the name of freedom and justice to starve people until they give up.

The flawed assumption from the beginning was that icing the Ayatollah was going to prompt regime change and accommodation with the West. That hasn't happened and it seems like there is not a number of guys we can kill to make that happen.


The hard truth is that we ended up like Russia in 2022. We expected to roll in and slap around a few holdouts and declare victory and we all wave American flags. Instead, Iran decided to say nah and fight back. Who knew the enemy gets a say in a military campaign? Now we are stuck with our dicks in the wind scrambling for some sense of something we can slap a "WE DID IT!" sticker on and move on.

Iran zigged when we expected them to zag and we were arrogant enough to not have any real strategies or logistics setup for this eventuality. That last part is not even debatable.

So will we win? Undoubtedly. The question is just a matter of where we settle and whether that "win" will actually be worth a damn in the mid to long term future.

The problem is the people are not willing to fight for freedom, so they will continue to live in an Islamic dictatorship and be slaughtered every few years when they protest. F em
Lol. They get slaughtered if they go protest right now. Our goofy leader killed all the moderates who could take over. Lmao
Geminiv
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EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".


There never was. About as well as Putin planned on invading Ukraine.
ts5641
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EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".

And you know this how?
ts5641
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The Chicken Ranch said:

But it was the greatest battle that we've ever been in. Everyone is saying how it's never been done before and that they've never seen anything like it. It's the best thing ever.

Well it actually was. We defeated their military in days. Knocked out all the evildoers at the top. Problem now is fractured leadership and the fact Iranians and muslims in general are liars and deceivers and will never do what they say.
FrioAg 00
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AG
Similar to Venezuela, some people grow so used to oppression that even when the oppressor is weakened to the point of limited resistance the people don't have it in them to rise up and take control of their own country
YouBet
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AG
Geminiv said:

EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".


There never was. About as well as Putin planned on invading Ukraine.


There is literally a plan. Has been from day one. They talk about it almost daily.

You and others are confusing not having a plan with plans not always going according to the plan.

So, if you want to find some fault then focus on the reality that our original plan got punched in the mouth and we've had to audible.

The ceasefire strategy partially to avoid War Powers Act restrictions, ship escorts, and the surrounding countries in that part of the world now exploring alternate paths and modes for moving O&G is that audible.

Y'all are flat out letting your TDS overrule objective and critical thought.
FWTXAg
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AG
Iran is in a continuous state of capitulation!
BusterAg
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AG
Ag1188 said:

Petrodollar going to be ditched by the world. Good luck America once that happens.

At least Iran has a democracy now. Wait….our incompetent leaders killed all the Iran moderates behind the Ayatollah who could've delivered Iran a democracy.


Who were these supposed moderate leaders? Do you have names?

Are they with us in this room right now?
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
2026NCAggies
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We have no plan and Trump looks weak and stupid

He thinks he can make a deal. There's no way you'll get a good honorable deal from these people

He keeps saying we've won epic fury. Naw you didn't,! Stop saying you did. You don't want to go back in for some reason.

You cannot open the straight. And you didn't get the uranium

Stop with your stupid waste of time negotiations you look dumb

We're going to come out of looking like fools. You watch
Jack Squat 83
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AG
2026NCAggies said:

We have no plan and Trump looks weak and stupid

He thinks he can make a deal. There's no way you'll get a good honorable deal from these people

He keeps saying we've won epic fury. Naw you didn't,! Stop saying you did. You don't want to go back in for some reason.

You cannot open the straight. And you didn't get the uranium

Stop with your stupid waste of time negotiations you look dumb

We're going to come out of looking like fools. You watch


You forgot the part about being a Trump supporter, just trying to help.

A friendly reminder as well, we have very little information. Much of the info is from the lying liberal MSM or the lying Iranians.

Also as annoying as orange man can be and is, he's usually right and usually wins. Give it a few more minutes.
I don't think you know me.
eric76
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AG
2026NCAggies said:

We have no plan and Trump looks weak and stupid

He thinks he can make a deal. There's no way you'll get a good honorable deal from these people

He keeps saying we've won epic fury. Naw you didn't,! Stop saying you did. You don't want to go back in for some reason.

You cannot open the straight. And you didn't get the uranium

Stop with your stupid waste of time negotiations you look dumb

We're going to come out of looking like fools. You watch

Trump doesn't have the guts to stick it out. He's like the bully on the playground who starts something on the spur of the moment and then cries how unfair it is when his desires don't come to fruition.

Trump's "plans" are entirely pie in the sky. They are little more than him believing that he is omnipotent and that everybody has no choice but to kiss his ass repeatedly.
AGHouston11
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AG
Midnight Hammer over
Epic Fury over
Project Freedom launched
Now put on pause after the launch.

Is the pause because of a" final agreement" might happen or is it because there are issues still getting through. Such as Iran attaching ships.
AlaskanAg99
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AG
The instant gratification generation is having real issues with a prolonged conflict. Fuel by TDS and co.pounded by having your life disrupted by being inconvenienced.

The old world order is rapidly changing, this is not done by Trump, but he is the president who's most active in dealing with it. Everyone should expect more change and at a quick pace over the next decade.

More conflict
More trade disruption
Allies trust eroding
NATO dissolving
UN dissolving
aTm '99
doubledog
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"It is easier to start a war than to end it." Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Or it took just one bullet to start WWI but 22 billion bullets to end it
Squadron7
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AG
ts5641 said:

EFR said:

There is no plan, not even a "concept of a plan".

And you know this how?


It was a probably in a tweet from his go to source on geopolitics, Cher.
Mas89
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AG
Just make sure you keep your Government Job Comrade.
JB99
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AG
AGHouston11 said:

Im Gipper said:

Why would anyone here have information on the administration's strategy?


Early on were told over and over the president's objectives were clear.

So now the administration's objectives are no longer clear thus the exit strategy is not publicly stated? We went from we are ahead of schedule to the exit strategy is no longer public?


What objectives are not clear? Iran can't have nuclear weapons, can't disrupt the free flow of trade in international waters. You may not like that the issue is still unresolved, but the objectives are clear.
samurai_science
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Ag1188 said:

samurai_science said:

Eliminatus said:

AggieEP said:

I can tell you with 100% confidence that our military planners were not preparing for siege and blockade warfare. Our doctrine calls for overwhelming force application to immediately break the will of the enemy.

Sieges and blockades can be effective but they also run the risk of creating humanitarian crises, and while I'm no bleeding heart, it's not a good look for the US which goes to war in the name of freedom and justice to starve people until they give up.

The flawed assumption from the beginning was that icing the Ayatollah was going to prompt regime change and accommodation with the West. That hasn't happened and it seems like there is not a number of guys we can kill to make that happen.


The hard truth is that we ended up like Russia in 2022. We expected to roll in and slap around a few holdouts and declare victory and we all wave American flags. Instead, Iran decided to say nah and fight back. Who knew the enemy gets a say in a military campaign? Now we are stuck with our dicks in the wind scrambling for some sense of something we can slap a "WE DID IT!" sticker on and move on.

Iran zigged when we expected them to zag and we were arrogant enough to not have any real strategies or logistics setup for this eventuality. That last part is not even debatable.

So will we win? Undoubtedly. The question is just a matter of where we settle and whether that "win" will actually be worth a damn in the mid to long term future.

The problem is the people are not willing to fight for freedom, so they will continue to live in an Islamic dictatorship and be slaughtered every few years when they protest. F em

Lol. They get slaughtered if they go protest right now. Our goofy leader killed all the moderates who could take over. Lmao

LOL. Thats what I said. Did you actually read my comment? Thousands were killed for recently protesting before the "war" even started.

Stop lying about Trump killing the moderates or provide proof. Lmao
 
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