Iran has not yet capitulated, what is the exit strategy?

23,685 Views | 371 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by AggieVictor10
Im Gipper
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TXCityAggie said:

The US is going to end up spending billions of dollars only to make a "deal" that's almost exactly like the one that Trump ripped up a decade ago.

I will be first in line to say that if this happens, that is a terrible deal.

If it doesn't happen, will you come back and admit you were wrong?

I'm Gipper
Ellis Wyatt
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What deal was that? Hussein gave them a bunch of money that wasn't theirs so they could build nuclear weapons. Then he made the deal secret so even congress couldn't see the terms.

America got nothing from that except Iran being more of a threat to the world. Of course that was what piece of **** Obama wanted.

Thank God that was torn up.
eric76
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AG
Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

Quote:

Trump doesn't have the guts to stick it out. He's like the bully on the playground who starts something on the spur of the moment and then cries how unfair it is when his desires don't come to fruition.

Yes, clearly Iran is the victim of the big mean bully Trump. Iran has never bullied anyone on the playground and cried how unfair it is when someone hits back. Such educated analysis of what's going on in the world.

There isn't just one bully.

Yes, there is this case. Iran has bullied Israel and U.S. troops for decades in the ME. They have funded and given aid to terrorist organizations that have murdered innocent civilians and harmed/killed U.S. troops.

The idea that Donald Trump started this fight with Iran shows your complete ignorance of history and what's gone on that region for decades. It's a fight that's been going on via proxy for many years. But because he chose to bomb them, he's the bully on the playground who can't finish anything. Do you even understand how ignorant that sounds?

Nonsense.

Yeah, we have had issues with Iran over time. But anyone who thinks that we can force regime change by dropping a few bombs on them is an idiot.

If we want regime change, it will take troops on the ground. A lot of troops on the ground.

No, the issue isn't nonsense. It's a very serious one. And you appear to know very little about it, nor care to. Your primary focus here is opposing Trump, which is shortsighted. You also show your ignorance by assuming regime change was the goal of our actions.

Please list those countries that bombing without sending in troops has resulted in regime change. Where has that so-called strategy ever worked?
FWTXAg
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Im Gipper said:

TXCityAggie said:

The US is going to end up spending billions of dollars only to make a "deal" that's almost exactly like the one that Trump ripped up a decade ago.

I will be first in line to say that if this happens, that is a terrible deal.

If it doesn't happen, will you come back and admit you were wrong?


We won't get the truth on anything that is agreed to. Iran will say we surrendered, and Trump will say their leaders bent down and kissed his feet. Neither of which will be remotely close to true. It will be very similar to whatever deal was already in place, you're not stopping them from getting a nuclear bomb unless we blow them all up and occupy their Country for years. I'd have to think our intelligence agencies already know that.
flown-the-coop
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eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

Quote:

Trump doesn't have the guts to stick it out. He's like the bully on the playground who starts something on the spur of the moment and then cries how unfair it is when his desires don't come to fruition.

Yes, clearly Iran is the victim of the big mean bully Trump. Iran has never bullied anyone on the playground and cried how unfair it is when someone hits back. Such educated analysis of what's going on in the world.

There isn't just one bully.

Yes, there is this case. Iran has bullied Israel and U.S. troops for decades in the ME. They have funded and given aid to terrorist organizations that have murdered innocent civilians and harmed/killed U.S. troops.

The idea that Donald Trump started this fight with Iran shows your complete ignorance of history and what's gone on that region for decades. It's a fight that's been going on via proxy for many years. But because he chose to bomb them, he's the bully on the playground who can't finish anything. Do you even understand how ignorant that sounds?

Nonsense.

Yeah, we have had issues with Iran over time. But anyone who thinks that we can force regime change by dropping a few bombs on them is an idiot.

If we want regime change, it will take troops on the ground. A lot of troops on the ground.

No, the issue isn't nonsense. It's a very serious one. And you appear to know very little about it, nor care to. Your primary focus here is opposing Trump, which is shortsighted. You also show your ignorance by assuming regime change was the goal of our actions.

Please list those countries that bombing without sending in troops has resulted in regime change. Where has that so-called strategy ever worked?


Japan has entered the chat…
FrioAg 00
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AG
We didn't use troops against Japan?
fc2112
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FrioAg 00 said:

We didn't use troops against Japan?

We did not invade Japan, correct.
Ellis Wyatt
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FWTXAg said:


We won't get the truth on anything that is agreed to. Iran will say we surrendered, and Trump will say their leaders bent down and kissed his feet. Neither of which will be remotely close to true. It will be very similar to whatever deal was already in place, you're not stopping them from getting a nuclear bomb unless we blow them all up and occupy their Country for years. I'd have to think our intelligence agencies already know that.

We know it doesn't matter. Y'all are screeching about a quagmire when almost all the dead guys are the iranians, who no longer have a navy or an air force, among many other things.
5Amp
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RangerRick9211 said:

5Amp said:

RangerRick9211 said:

5Amp said:

RangerRick9211 said:

5Amp said:

Muddyfeet said:

5Amp said:

Last week was a record week in oil sales in the USA as we continue to load very large vessels of Texas crude out and ship overseas to Asia and Europe.

Hope this stays close for another few months if not 2026 thru 2028.

This is really great for the red producing states like TEXAS

Grok
Approximately 6.44 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for the most recently reported week (ending April 24, 2026).
This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data released on April 29, 2026. It was a record high, up sharply from 4.798 million bpd the prior week (an increase of about 1.64 million bpd).
Key Context:
Crude oil exports (not including petroleum products): 6.438 million bpd.
Total petroleum exports (crude + products like gasoline, distillates, etc.): Hit a record 14.18 million bpd that same week.
This surge contributed to the U.S. becoming a net crude exporter on a weekly basis for the first time on record, amid global supply disruptions (e.g., related to events in the Middle East).




How is this better for Texas? Sounds great, but as an average Texan, how does this help me? Is someone paying the state a tariff? Is the State taxing it? Loading fees to the Port of Houston possibly?

Tax revenue from employment, fees for water ways, rail, and highways, taxes on refined fuels. literally filling the coffer with billions of dollars. Also, these companies are establishing lasting business relationships that will continue on long after the SOH is opened. I dare to say Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana will keep 30% or better of the customers they currently are dealing with once they prove the USA can be a viable, competitive source for crude oils, refined products, and LPGs.

Bessent and Trump know this, revenues generated from former Iranian oil customers will pay for the shells used to blow up Iranian assets.

Those tankers are making their way to America ports, specifically the states I named. Great news for producing red states.


Our crude isn't ME crude, though. Refiners need specific stock and India/Asia aren't built for ours. I dare to lol to your 30%.

Exports have jumped for all distillates from the US. But that has also squeezed the US consumer on gas, diesel and LPG. There's still a global shortage. We do have an export ceiling.

So, happy the feds and state are lining their coffers. Sucks for us normal people trying to fire up the grill or drive anywhere.

not only feds, state, and local governments, It's also very profitable for the smart, professional businessman and engineering types, not so much for some in other fields I suppose.

anywho, you should probably research before rattling off garbage AS YOU LAUGH at my conservative 30% estimate.

Grok
Yes, Alaska grade crude (primarily Alaska North Slope or ANS crude) is generally compatible with many Asian and especially Indian refineries, though it may require some operational adjustments in less complex facilities.

Key Properties of Alaska North Slope (ANS) Crude
ANS is a medium sour crude:
API gravity: Typically 2932 (medium density; flows reasonably well but not as light as WTI ~3941).
Sulfur content: Around 0.91.1% (sour, but not extremely high like some heavy Middle Eastern grades at 23%+).
This profile yields a balanced mix of products (good for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline) but needs desulfurization units.
Compatibility with Asian/Indian Refineries
Asian refiners (e.g., Japan, South Korea): They have recently purchased ANS cargoes, especially amid Middle East supply disruptions. Shorter shipping times from Alaska (~815 days faster than Middle East routes) are a big plus. However, some Japanese refiners note technical challenges like higher metallic impurities, which may need extra processing equipment for large volumes.
Indian refineries: Highly capable due to high complexity. India's largest complex (Reliance Jamnagar) has the world's highest Nelson Complexity Index (~21.1) and has processed over 216 different crude grades, including heavy/sour varieties from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. It handles wide variations in API gravity and sulfur content efficiently, turning lower-quality crudes into high-value fuels.
Most modern Indian refineries (e.g., those of IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, and Reliance) are configured for medium-to-heavy sour crudes common from the Middle East and Russia. ANS fits well within this rangeit's not overly heavy or ultra-sour, so blending or minor adjustments suffice. India already imports significant U.S. crude (including various grades), and its refiners have flexibility for spot purchases.
Practical Considerations
Logistics: Shorter Pacific routes benefit Asia vs. longer Middle East voyages. Exports from Valdez, Alaska, have gone to Asia historically and recently.
Economics: ANS can be attractive during disruptions (e.g., Hormuz issues), though it competes on price with Russian or U.S. Gulf crudes.
Limitations: Older or simpler refineries might need blending with lighter/sweeter crudes for optimal yields, but this is standard industry practice.
In summary, yesit's capable and has been used successfully, particularly in complex Indian facilities and select Asian ones. Compatibility depends on the specific refinery's configuration, but India's refining sector is among the most adaptable globally. For current market details, check trade data from EIA or shipping trackers.


What is this AI slop?

Think for yourself, bud. Alaska doesn't export much crude. 90% of it goes to CA/WA for domestic refining. Almost all of US exports are from PADD 3. Grok doing you dirty. Why no mention of TX/LA?

Quote:

For current market details, check trade data from EIA or shipping trackers.

Thanks for the suggestion, Grok. I already do/did in my original response. Maybe tell your master to "research before rattling off garbage."

Export of crude by PADD: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_exp_dc_R30-Z00_mbbl_m.htm

Insane to simp for corp/govt. revenues over normal Americans, including yourself. If you drive, fly or buy you're taking it up the wallet right now. Have a great summer.

LMAO- you remind me of my wife who hates AI yet for years has been living with Google.

the PADD link YOU posted is good up to Feb 2026, before the Iranian war, old information.

Alaska is closer to Asia/Japan and AK production will continue to climb as this administration relieves government regulations allowing more drilling within proven reserves that have been restricted.

Also, I counted over a dozen tankers yesterday in or near the Houston ship channel, way more than normal and I believe a lot of that new business will remain long after the SOH is open. I am big on Red state oil production and refinery, especially from Texas/LA.

as far as paying more at the pump, I do remember my liberal sister telling me she didn't mind paying a little extra in gasoline cost during Biden's administration support of Ukraine, you remember, when gasoline was higher than what it is today…and as far as enjoying the summer, we are planning a cross country trip in the Winnebago, driving to Washington DC for the birthday bash…..











Jesus Christ, grandpa. It's EIA.

I'll take data over YOUUUU saw some boats. Alaska produces for west coast consumption. I don't know what to tell you. Trans-Alaskan pipeline exists for us. We could row it to Asia, but we don't. We pipe it to the lower-48. Just ask EIA… or ask a moose you saw near Galveston or whatever you trust.

I'm dipping. Not interested in more Facebook, Alex Jones level discussion. Have a great night.

Grandpa understands the Alaska pipeline is not bidirectional but the proven oil reserves in the Alaska waters can easily supply Japan and Asia their crude needs, our president wants it drilled as in drill baby drill.
All kidding aside sonny, Iran can't own a nuclear bomb and Trump has slapped them back a few decades, and the beatings both physical and economical is coming to an end. In a few months, if not weeks, the USA will be flooding the market with crude oil and the price of gasoline will be lower, in some places under $2.00. Fatties can will get back to eating cheap chocolate in no time.

not Alex jones fan and don't do Facebook but I do like a strong job market and young people working their dreams. Have a great week!

flown-the-coop
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AG
FrioAg 00 said:

We didn't use troops against Japan?

Not on the main islands.

You think troops in Okinawa and Iwo Jima are why the Emperor gave in?
FrioAg 00
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AG
Sure, but I don't think it's comparable to just bombing. That's a disservice to 100k+ dead, and 250k wounded American soldiers.


fc2112
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FrioAg 00 said:

Sure, but I don't think it's comparable to just bombing. That's a disservice to 100k+ dead, and 250k wounded American soldiers.

It was pretty much just two bombs.
flown-the-coop
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FrioAg 00 said:

Sure, but I don't think it's comparable to just bombing. That's a disservice to 100k+ dead, and 250k wounded American soldiers.




You somehow take what I said and try to turn it in to dishonoring those who served in battles of the pacific islands in WWII?

That's a bit of a leap. I notice you didn't answer the question. Do you think regime change in Japan happens with troops alone? Because one of the reasons for using the bomb was evaluating whether we even COULD take Japan by conventional forces and if so how many millions in dead allied soldiers would it cost, keeping in mind by allied I mean really just us.
FWTXAg
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Ellis Wyatt said:

FWTXAg said:


We won't get the truth on anything that is agreed to. Iran will say we surrendered, and Trump will say their leaders bent down and kissed his feet. Neither of which will be remotely close to true. It will be very similar to whatever deal was already in place, you're not stopping them from getting a nuclear bomb unless we blow them all up and occupy their Country for years. I'd have to think our intelligence agencies already know that.

We know it doesn't matter. Y'all are screeching about a quagmire when almost all the dead guys are the iranians, who no longer have a navy or an air force, among many other things.


Well yeah, I support no new not a wars.
FrioAg 00
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AG
Wasn't trying to do that, I apologize. I just don't think the war with Japan is comparable at all to these campaigns
amercer
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AG
The Japanese surrendered because we had beaten them back to their home islands, the massive fire bombing, the nukes, AND because Russia was about to invade from the north.
SteveA
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AG
Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.
Ellis Wyatt
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K. Thankfully adults are in charge and not your party.
FWTXAg
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AG
Ellis Wyatt said:

K. Thankfully adults are in charge and not your party.


K. I don't have a party. People who do are lost little puppies.
flown-the-coop
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SteveA said:

Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.

Why not?
Ellis Wyatt
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We know, we know. Regan Republican. Just concerned about the direction of the party. We've heard it all before.
flown-the-coop
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FWTXAg said:

Ellis Wyatt said:

K. Thankfully adults are in charge and not your party.


K. I don't have a party. People who do are lost little puppies.
the "I hate everyone and everything party" is still a party.
flown-the-coop
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amercer said:

The Japanese surrendered because we had beaten them back to their home islands, the massive fire bombing the nukes, AND because Russia was about to invade from the north.


There, fixed it.
DeschutesAg
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flown-the-coop said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

Quote:

Trump doesn't have the guts to stick it out. He's like the bully on the playground who starts something on the spur of the moment and then cries how unfair it is when his desires don't come to fruition.

Yes, clearly Iran is the victim of the big mean bully Trump. Iran has never bullied anyone on the playground and cried how unfair it is when someone hits back. Such educated analysis of what's going on in the world.

There isn't just one bully.

Yes, there is this case. Iran has bullied Israel and U.S. troops for decades in the ME. They have funded and given aid to terrorist organizations that have murdered innocent civilians and harmed/killed U.S. troops.

The idea that Donald Trump started this fight with Iran shows your complete ignorance of history and what's gone on that region for decades. It's a fight that's been going on via proxy for many years. But because he chose to bomb them, he's the bully on the playground who can't finish anything. Do you even understand how ignorant that sounds?

Nonsense.

Yeah, we have had issues with Iran over time. But anyone who thinks that we can force regime change by dropping a few bombs on them is an idiot.

If we want regime change, it will take troops on the ground. A lot of troops on the ground.

No, the issue isn't nonsense. It's a very serious one. And you appear to know very little about it, nor care to. Your primary focus here is opposing Trump, which is shortsighted. You also show your ignorance by assuming regime change was the goal of our actions.

Please list those countries that bombing without sending in troops has resulted in regime change. Where has that so-called strategy ever worked?


Japan has entered the chat…
Those were two nuclear bombs. We are not going to use nukes. You know that. Eric76's point is valid.

A couple of weeks ago, Trump threatened a U.S. bombing and missile campaign that targets tens of millions of Iran's civilians. There are Trump supporters who think that is a real option. It isn't. It is Trump playing on their ignorance.

Iran's leaders know they are holding two strong bargaining chips:

1. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It has to be reopened soon.

2. The USA has destroyed most military targets in Iran, and now we have very few options remaining other than to make a deal.

And now they have a 3rd chip. MBS told Trump "no" on Monday on Trump's latest move.
SteveA
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AG
Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
Japan has entered the chat…

SteveA said:

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.


Why not?


So you aren't a serious person. Understood.
DeschutesAg
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flown-the-coop said:

SteveA said:

Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.

Why not?
Because of reality.
flown-the-coop
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flown-the-coop
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DeschutesAg said:

flown-the-coop said:

SteveA said:

Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.

Why not?
Because of reality.

So we will not use all the tools in our arsenal to win? Perhaps you missed that Trump calls the shots, not some limp writes RINO nor some flaccid, crimes lib POTUS on the take.

We have a variety of nuclear armaments that could be used. BTW, I didn't suggest this was a next step. But it does put to rest the discussion on whether bombing can effect regime change. The answer to that is… "yes".
FWTXAg
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flown-the-coop said:

FWTXAg said:

Ellis Wyatt said:

K. Thankfully adults are in charge and not your party.


K. I don't have a party. People who do are lost little puppies.

the "I hate everyone and everything party" is still a party.


The day "I hate both parties and know they are both fake storylines played by actors designed to increase the size of government and steal from milddle class Americans no matter who is in power" becomes a party, then yes, I will certainly have one then.
flown-the-coop
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AG
Your party…

Rockdoc
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AG
Oh he has a party alright.
DeschutesAg
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flown-the-coop said:

DeschutesAg said:

flown-the-coop said:

SteveA said:

Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.

Why not?
Because of reality.

So we will not use all the tools in our arsenal to win? Perhaps you missed that Trump calls the shots, not some limp writes RINO nor some flaccid, crimes lib POTUS on the take. We have a variety of nuclear armaments that could be used.
Hopefully, Trump, Rubio, Hegseth, Thune, and Mike Johnson are not as detached from reality and rational thinking and the real world as you seem to think they are. The subsequent consequences and repercussions of using a nuke would be enormous and far reaching, domestically and internationally.
flown-the-coop
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AG
DeschutesAg said:

flown-the-coop said:

DeschutesAg said:

flown-the-coop said:

SteveA said:

Quote:

Japan has entered the chat…

Well, I guess we can drop some atomic bombs in Iran now. Good thinking.

Why not?

Because of reality.

So we will not use all the tools in our arsenal to win? Perhaps you missed that Trump calls the shots, not some limp writes RINO nor some flaccid, crimes lib POTUS on the take. We have a variety of nuclear armaments that could be used.

Hopefully, Trump, Rubio, Hegseth, Thune, and Mike Johnson are not as detached from reality and rational thinking and the real world as you seem to think they are. The subsequent consequences and repercussions of using a nuke would be enormous and far reaching, domestically and internationally.

But it would have been okay for Iran to have their own, to not use unless of course they felt like the needed to.

We have nukes. We have people in charge who are strong and intelligent enough to use any and all tools available to them in the arsenal.

We also have plenty of alternate tools to use as well. The game here is to achieve the mission objectives. Those objectives do NOT include how people may feel about how, when and why we use our weapons.
eric76
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flown-the-coop said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

eric76 said:

Gigem314 said:

Quote:

Trump doesn't have the guts to stick it out. He's like the bully on the playground who starts something on the spur of the moment and then cries how unfair it is when his desires don't come to fruition.

Yes, clearly Iran is the victim of the big mean bully Trump. Iran has never bullied anyone on the playground and cried how unfair it is when someone hits back. Such educated analysis of what's going on in the world.

There isn't just one bully.

Yes, there is this case. Iran has bullied Israel and U.S. troops for decades in the ME. They have funded and given aid to terrorist organizations that have murdered innocent civilians and harmed/killed U.S. troops.

The idea that Donald Trump started this fight with Iran shows your complete ignorance of history and what's gone on that region for decades. It's a fight that's been going on via proxy for many years. But because he chose to bomb them, he's the bully on the playground who can't finish anything. Do you even understand how ignorant that sounds?

Nonsense.

Yeah, we have had issues with Iran over time. But anyone who thinks that we can force regime change by dropping a few bombs on them is an idiot.

If we want regime change, it will take troops on the ground. A lot of troops on the ground.

No, the issue isn't nonsense. It's a very serious one. And you appear to know very little about it, nor care to. Your primary focus here is opposing Trump, which is shortsighted. You also show your ignorance by assuming regime change was the goal of our actions.

Please list those countries that bombing without sending in troops has resulted in regime change. Where has that so-called strategy ever worked?


Japan has entered the chat…

I must have misunderstand. I thought that we had fought on Okinawa.

I also seem to remember that the Emporer of Japan was still the Emporer of Japan after their surrender, too.

The main thing about Japan at the end of World War II, though, was our use of the atomic bomb which was unheard of at the time. It rightfully scared the crap out of them and forced their hand.
eric76
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fc2112 said:

FrioAg 00 said:

We didn't use troops against Japan?

We did not invade Japan, correct.

Okinawa is not a Japanese island?
 
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