Let's get it started with a freeze on Sunday evening and possible snow on Wed/thurs.

Sunday will start out warm, and high temperatures will likely reach the lower- to possibly mid-70s before a front comes sweeping down from the northwest. The timing remains a bit uncertain, but this is likely to occur during the afternoon hours. It looks as though a line of broken showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front's passage, with the greater likelihood of rain, and possibly severe winds, to the north and east of Houston.

Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, as brisk northwesterly winds bring in much drier and cooler air. By early Monday morning much of the region will experience a light freeze, with temperatures dropping into the 30 to 35 degree range.

https://spacecityweather.com/expect-warmer-days-before-a-much-colder-air-mass-arrives-sunday-a-freeze-is-likely-and-wintry-precipitation-is-possible/

Latest from Linder:

A strong cold front will move across the area on Sunday…a prolonged period of below normal temperatures next week.

General warming trend over the next 2-3 days before a strong cold front moves through the area on Sunday. Colder air mass will spread down the plains this weekend with the cold air spilling into Texas behind a large winter storm over the plains and OH valley. Ahead of the front on Sunday temperatures will warm into the 70's and possibly the 80's along with a push of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast parameters do show the potential for showers and thunderstorms Sunday along and ahead of the front. Some of the storms could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. While the greatest threat looks to be northeast of our local area, it is not zero with SPC showing a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk over the metro area and slight (level 2 out of 5) northeast of the metro area. Will need to keep an eye on Sunday for any higher threat that may develop.

Cold:
Cold is coming…this is not February 2021 cold…but cold enough for your typical cold weather preparations. Arctic boundary will quickly advance through the area Sunday afternoon and evening (timing may end up a bit faster) as is usual with these shallow dense cold air masses. Temperatures in the 70's and possibly 80's ahead of the front will tumble into the 40's and 50's behind the front and continue downward into Monday morning with a freeze for many areas north of I-10. This will be the first of at least 2-3 nights with below freezing temperatures over the area. Temperatures Monday morning will range from the mid-upper 20's north of HWY 105 to near 30 along I-10 to above freezing along the coast. Gusty northerly winds of 10-20mph will result in wind chills of 10's to 20's over the area. With strong cold air advection in place on Monday temperatures will remain in the 40's for highs.

Coldest night may be Tuesday with hard freezes (below 24 for more than 2 hours) down toward the HWY 105 corridor and lows in the upper 20's toward I-10 with nearing freezing even toward the coastal counties. How low temperatures will fall will be a function of decreasing winds and cloud cover…but the current trend in the last 24 hours has been a bit cooler. Lows looks similar on Wednesday morning ranging from the mid 20's north of HWY 105 to upper 20's along I-10. Thursday morning will likely feature another freeze…maybe a few degrees warmer. Hours below freezing will range from 8-12 north of HWY 105 to 4-8 near I-10 and 3-5 for the coastal counties. There remains some uncertainty on just how cold temperatures may get and there is some potential for temperatures to trend downward some over the next few days.

Preparations:

Now through the weekend is time to complete cold weather winterization precautions.

Protect sensitive vegetation.
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained).
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.


Winter Precipitation Potential:
There continues to be at least signals in guidance that some moisture may work into the cold air mass mid to late week but the uncertainty remains extremely high on if or when any sort of precipitation will occur. The most likely time period for anything would be in the Wed-Fri period as an upper level system potentially moves out of northern MX and across Texas which helps to force a coastal low over the northwest Gulf. The incoming air mass may be too dry to allow moisture to push northward mid to late week resulting in only an increase in cloud cover or there could be some overlap with the cold air and increasing moisture. There are a lot of variables that remain for this period and the near continuous guidance flipping between runs and the different models yield almost no confidence in what may ultimately happen. This part of the forecast will hopefully come into better focus toward late this weekend and early next week.

Models did a 180 from yesterday even in the hill country. Yesterday it was quite a bit of snow and ice, but as of Friday they are predicting cold rain. Plenty of time to flip back before midweek.

LFG!!!

evestor1 said:

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Never bet against snow the winter after a hurricane pendejo.

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Told someone from UK last week that. She asked if we ever see snow and said on occasion, and since we had a hurricane I'd bet on it this winter.

ShotOver said:

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ktownag08 said:

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LFG!!!

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LF Not…

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no sh*t

Where's the space city update? Usually they're on top of weather events like this. Nothing since yesterday morning.

ktownag08 said:

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Cause for Houston, it's shaping up to be mostly a non-event...

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Yeah, looks like it'll be a longer stretch of weather between 30 and 50 degrees here, but nothing at all worth getting wound up about.

evestor1 said:

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Never bet against snow the winter after a hurricane pendejo.

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Well I'm betting it's not gonna snow because when the precip is forecasted temps are forecasted to be well over freezing.

But again I'm no meteorologist.

Ag_07 said:

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evestor1 said:

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Never bet against snow the winter after a hurricane pendejo.

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Well I'm betting it's not gonna snow because when the precip is forecasted temps are forecasted to be well over freezing.

But again I'm no meteorologist.

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This won't be our only chance this month. Take that to the bank when looking at the next 3 weeks upper air pattern.

This first event is a non event. I'd be looking more towards the 20th through the first week of February.

I Am A Critic said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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This first event is a non event. I'd be looking more towards the 20th through the first week of February.

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Because 2-3 week forecasts are so highly accurate?

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MFR knows what he's talking about.

Trust in Linder

Lay me down, baby

Yea I'm interested in hearing this as well.

Build It said:

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Trust in Linder

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Linder is one of the best, particularly around severe weather and Tropics.

He doesn't touch long term patterns in Winter. Tends to speak in mid range to short range potential.

With all of that said, I do think there's an outside shot for the far western and northern HGX viewing areas (Colorado County to Navasota and north and west) to get in on the wintry mix this week. Houston will not.

You experts agree with Space City Weather guys?

"most of the Houston metro area will not face a hard freeze. That is when air temperatures fall into the mid-20s or below, at which point one needs to worry about pipes. So from an infrastructure standpoint, I'm not too concerned about this freeze."

I agree with that this week.

You think I should put a blanket over my sprinkler backflow preventer tonight? (I'm in Cypress, fwiw.) Cover for it will be here tomorrow.

TP Ag '87 said:

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You think I should put a blanket over my sprinkler backflow preventer tonight? (I'm in Cypress, fwiw.) Cover for it will be here tomorrow.

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why not just do it right, close the valve from the supply side and open the bleeders. Takes all of 2 minutes. You can also cycle the system to make sure the pressure is out.