lol Peña scratched

L O - fugging - L

That was a quick touchdown.

Rockets time. Please god

After today we will be a game behind the Tigers and Red Sox and tied with Guardians. Can we go 5-1?

Mikeyshooter said:

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After today we will be a game behind the Tigers and Red Sox and tied with Guardians. Can we go 5-1?

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We have a favorable schedule. Only matters if we all of a sudden go from ass to a good team. So unlikely

Just went back and looked at that September 2023 series.

Astros swept Arlington at their place by a total of 39-10, or basically a 13-3 average win per game.

Entering the playoffs the Rangers were toast.

The only teams I didn't want to face were 101 win Baltimore or 99 win Tampa. When the Rangers swept both I was pumped because I knew we'd beat them.

I'm sure Mariners fans would feel the same way about a matchup with the Astros in the playoffs this year.

///

At this point it's down to us, Boston and the AL Central 2nd place team (Cleveland/Detroit) for the final two wildcard slots. Schedule sets up very favorably for us since they all play each other.

Boston:
@TOR
@TOR
@TOR
vsDET
vsDET
vsDET

Cleveland
vsDET
vsDET
vsDET
vsTEX
vsTEX
vsTEX

Detroit
@CLE
@CLE
@CLE
@BOS
@BOS
@BOS

Just beat the scrubs of the AL Weat and we are set. Might even be able to pull off the division! But, we are .500 against those scrubs so far this season!

Would be nice to have Yordan and Pena (among others) to make one last run at the division...

Division race is over.

Assuming 50/50 odds for all remaining games then the Mariners have a 98% chance of winning division.

But in reality the odds are even more in their favor given that they will play by far the worst team in baseball for three games and then an LA team that will be likely be shutting it down and resting for all three games.

Wildcard is 50/50 at this point so the Astros need to lock it in and secure one of the two spots in play.

Astros almost have to win out or hope the Cleveland hot streak tanks.

5-1 and we're most likely in. 4-2 and it gets murky.

Ragoo said:

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Astros almost have to win out or hope the Cleveland hot streak tanks.

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Losses:
Boston - 71
Detroit - 71
Cleveland - 72
Astros - 72

3 losses will be allocated between Detroit and Cleveland
3 losses will be allocated between Detroit and Boston

Best theoretical case for the Astros I think would be for Detroit to sweep both.
- Detroit wins AL Central
- Cleveland has minimum 75 losses (plus any additional losses from Texas series)
- Boston has minimum of 74 losses (plus any losses from Toronto series)

Astros definitely in at 4-2 and probably in at 3-3.

Second best case would be Cleveland to sweep Detroit and Detroit to sweep Boston.
- Cleveland wins AL Central
- Detroit has 74 losses
- Boston has minimum of 74 losses (plus any losses from Toronto series)

Astros probably in at 4-2 and maybe at 3-3 but need Boston to drop 2/3 to Toronto.

Definitely hope Toronto sweeps Boston or takes 2/3 either way.

Serotonin said:

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Division race is over.

Assuming 50/50 odds for all remaining games then the Mariners have a 98% chance of winning division.

But in reality the odds are even more in their favor given that they will play by far the worst team in baseball for three games and then an LA team that will be likely be shutting it down and resting for all three games.

Wildcard is 50/50 at this point so the Astros need to lock it in and secure one of the two spots in play.

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<Insert Dumb and Dumber gif>

Bondag said:

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Serotonin said:

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Division race is over.

Assuming 50/50 odds for all remaining games then the Mariners have a 98% chance of winning division.

But in reality the odds are even more in their favor given that they will play by far the worst team in baseball for three games and then an LA team that will be likely be shutting it down and resting for all three games.

Wildcard is 50/50 at this point so the Astros need to lock it in and secure one of the two spots in play.

---

<Insert Dumb and Dumber gif>

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lol, true

On the wildcard front I think the odds would be something like

6-0: 100% chance of wildcard
5-1: 100% chance of wildcard
4-2: 70% chance of wildcard
3-3: 30% chance of wildcard
2-4 or worse: <10% chance of wildcard

Good point with Boston. They have a significantly more difficult schedule coming home. They could find themselves out while the guardians and Astros sneak in.

Serotonin said:

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Bondag said:

---

Serotonin said:

---

Division race is over.

Assuming 50/50 odds for all remaining games then the Mariners have a 98% chance of winning division.

But in reality the odds are even more in their favor given that they will play by far the worst team in baseball for three games and then an LA team that will be likely be shutting it down and resting for all three games.

Wildcard is 50/50 at this point so the Astros need to lock it in and secure one of the two spots in play.

---

<Insert Dumb and Dumber gif>

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lol, true

On the wildcard front I think the odds would be something like

6-0: 100% chance of wildcard
5-1: 100% chance of wildcard
4-2: 70% chance of wildcard
3-3: 30% chance of wildcard
2-4 or worse: <10% chance of wildcard

---

Considering the pressure is off the A's and they swept the Stros in the four game series in July, 2-4 or 3-3 seems pretty likely.

Yeah I'm concerned about the A's series.

They're >.500 over the last couple of months and while they have terrible pitching they have a really good lineup with WIlson, Kurtz, Soderstrom, etc. Their lineup is easily better than the Astros at this point.

A lot less concerned about the Angels.

But either way need to figure out how to take 2/3 from the A's so we aren't backed into a complete corner needing a sweep of the Angels.

Everyone taking a nap this afternoon?

Gotta win tonight or the Astros will be staring at four straight must win games starting tomorrow.

Burn it down.

Dead

Baby steps guys. Let's catch infield pop ups before we move onto the next lesson.

Toronto rolling over and playing dead for Boston, which is bad news for us.

At this point with Hunter Brown going tonight it feels like this is it. Must win game and if we lose the season's over.

4-1 is it. Tigers might not win another game this season the way they are playing.