hph6203 said:

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What I'm saying is that there is a perception that he doesn't play young talented players when they deserve it, but you'd be hard pressed to find any that actually turned into established quality starters. A few have gone on to be decent/quality role players (Corey Brewer, Ian Mahinmi, Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright), but those guys also got pretty significant minutes with the Mavs.

For example: Roddy B never scored 30 in a playoff game. He scored 40 a month before the playoffs, upping the hype train full bore. Then he played in the playoffs, was relegated to limited minutes while backing up Jason Kidd and JJ Barea (key elements of the championship team the following year). In game 6 his workload was increased, he scored 16 points and the Mavs lost by 10 and were eliminated.

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I wasn't referring to his 40 point game. I know that was regular season. I was referring to him playing really well against San Antonio. But it looks like my memory was wrong. I thought he played great in game 5 and then didn't get much time in game 6. But it was that we were down 20+ in the first half of game 6 and he ignited a comeback in the first half and played awesome. Then he barely played in second half.

But no point in talking about it anymore. I've said multiple times I agree Carlisle is an awesome coach. And I agree we haven't had young studs. So hopefully he plays young guys more if we get some good young guys.

In order to get good young players we need to take the draft seriously. Which is something I've never seen this organization actually do.

Dallas@Phoenix
Houston@Sacramento
Minnesota@LAL

None of these teams has any incentive to win tonight, so it should be ugly.

Edit-Houston does have some incentive to win to ensure they stay ahead of Cleveland/Boston in case they meet in the Finals.

The Mavs have turned on the tanking afterburners by losing 8 of 9 games. They have out tanked the Suns and Kings in that stretch. They even out-tanked the Spurs D-League team. Someone named Utoff(?) is playing 30 minutes a game. We might even see Tony Romo guard Nikola Jokic tomorrow, which would be one of the most amazing tank moves in the history of tanking.

Despite all of that the Mavs may be stuck in 9th. Somehow the freaking Lakers (who have the most incentive to tank in the history of this league) have won 4 in a row, including wins over Sacramento and Minnesota. The Lakers lose their pick this year and in 2019 if they end up in the 4 spot, yet those idiots keep winning. Just amazing. Unless Sacramento and Minnesota can pull a win in their last 2 games then I am afraid the Mavs are stuck at 9.

At least Tony Romo will get in this year.

Anyone else heading to the game?

The mavs waited too long. It looks like no team is going to let the mavs pass them this late.

jeffdjohnson said:

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The Mavs have turned on the tanking afterburners by losing 8 of 9 games. They have out tanked the Suns and Kings in that stretch. They even out-tanked the Spurs D-League team. Someone named Utoff(?) is playing 30 minutes a game. We might even see Tony Romo guard Nikola Jokic tomorrow, which would be one of the most amazing tank moves in the history of tanking.

Despite all of that the Mavs may be stuck in 9th. Somehow the freaking Lakers (who have the most incentive to tank in the history of this league) have won 4 in a row, including wins over Sacramento and Minnesota. The Lakers lose their pick this year and in 2019 if they end up in the 4 spot, yet those idiots keep winning. Just amazing. Unless Sacramento and Minnesota can pull a win in their last 2 games then I am afraid the Mavs are stuck at 9.

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Yea I was really hoping Minnesota would beat the Lakers.

For what little it's worth, both Minnesota and Sacramento are currently favored to win their respective games tomorrow night.

AggieSportsGuy said:

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Anyone else heading to the game?

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I should be there

Here's hoping the Thunder rest or limit Westbrook and the Suns decide that winning isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

And Minnesota blows the lead in the final minute to lose the game.

Just can't catch a break with this tanking thing.

Tanking is pretty intense. With one game left the Mavs can end up anywhere between 1-3, 7-10 depending on the last game results, coin flips and ping-pong balls.

They finally caught a break with Sacramento winning to pull even for the 8th spot. Best case is a final loss to Memphis then the Wolves beat the (resting?) Rockets. Sacramento will lose @LAC because the Clippers are playing for home court.

Mavs up 5 in the 4th tonight. We may miss out on a Malik Monk-ish player because Jarrod Uthoff and DeAndre Liggins outplayed Wayne Baldwin and Deyonte Davis in the final quarter of a meaningless 82nd game.

****. I turned this off when they were down 9 in the 3rd. I was feeling pretty good.

Frigging Brussino careers it with 15 points on 4 for 8 from 3. Looks like the #9 instead of #8 barring the Clippers getting stuck in traffic.

And the Clippers appear to need a W to have home court in the 1st round unless the Jazz crater tonight.

Pelicans probably lose also. This is not a smart organization

NO won the season series, So the Mavs are fine in a tie on that one which would be the case with a NO loss. They won't fall below 9.

the mavs also lost the series to SAC, but they need SAC to lose to force a tie.

So at this point, sac loss = mavs pick 9th. Sac miracle win = mavs pick 8th

Also, their chances for 1, 2, or 3 pick hover around 2% (depending on the spot) with the 9th and would improve to around 3% with the 8th.

You would think this is how it works, but it's not. The NBA holds random drawings to determine who gets the higher pick (this is before the lottery for the 1-2-3 picks) and the chance to win the lottery is divided up based upon the picks' number of entries and the number of teams with the same record.

So if NO loses and Sac wins then the teams go to a random drawing and the Mavs could end up with a pick ranging from 8th to 10th.

In that scenario the three teams would divide up the 56 entries (28 for 8th, 17 for 19th, 11 for 10th) and the 8th pick would get 19 entries, the 9th pick would get 19 entries and the 10th pick would get 18 ( 56 divided by 3 has a remainder of 2 and the remainder goes to the tie break winner/winners)

The Mavs will pick no worse than 13th (chances of this are near zero, as the 12th, 13th and 14th pick cannot all win the lottery, it is the only combination that is disallowed which leaves only a combination of 11,12,13 winning bumping them down 3 spots).

So ****ing stupid to win any games once you realize you need a high draft pick.

I get that you have pride and whatever, but bury it.

On the bright side NO lost which gives the Mavs the clear #9 spot. I thought head to head was a factor, turns out it is just a coin flip.

On the down side losing last night would have put them in a coin flip situation with SAC for the 8/9 spots. It is literally a 50/50 guess whether last night cost them a spot. It did cost them some ping-pong balls, they currently have a 6.1% chance of moving up, they would have had ~7% chance with a loss.

They will have to sweat someone jumping them though. Looking at the draft board, I really don't want #10. There are 4 high end PG prospects (Fultz, Ball, Smith Jr., Fox) and 3 high end wing prospects (Jackson, Tatum, Isaac). There are 3 other intriguing prospects (Markanaan, Ntinlinka, Monk) with some upside. If the Mavs land 10 or better they will get one of those players. If the Mavs land 9 then they at least get a choice between the leftover 2 prospects.

I thought they changed the rules that only the top 3 picks are determined by lottery and the rest are decided based on record?

I guess what I'm saying is that I think the Mavs only have a 1.7% chance of the #1 pick at the 9-spot. If they don't get a top 3 I'm pretty sure they stay at 9 unless someone behind them jumps to the top 3. If you're saying this already then I'll just shut up now.

Yea, he's saying that they have a 6% chance at moving up to 1, 2, or 3. If they don't move up to top 3, they will be 9 at best but could drop down if one or more teams behind them get lucky and get a top 3 spot.

Dirk confirmed staying on.

TheMasterplan said:

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Dirk confirmed staying on.

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The real question is would he actually come back for a 21st season the year after next?

Mavs stick at number 9. If they had lost the last game of the season they would have split ping-pong balls with Sacremento. SAC ended up moving to #3 in the draft. Basically Mavs would have had a 50/50 shot at the #3 pick without that meaningless win.

On the plus side they didn't move down. Looking at the board I don't see any way Fultz (#1), Ball, Jackson, Fox or Tatum slide far in the draft. Looks like the Mavs will be picking between Monk, Isaac, Smith Jr., Markannan and Ntilinka. If they are really lucky they get Smith Jr. or Isaac.

I'm guessing it will between Monk, Ntilinka and Markannan.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

Some of the latest mocks I've seen show Dennis Smith rising, so he probably won't be an option at 9. I can definitely see Little Whistle going for Ntilikina.

Apparently Mavs turned down Mathews/#9 pick for Rubio/#7. Huge mistake if true. Getting the #7 pick guarantees one of Fox, Tatum, Isaac or Smith Jr. Plus Mathews is overpaid by $8M at least. Rubio is extremely limited but at least he is cheaper.

I suppose Mathews is good for a stealth tank though, which might be for the best anyways. Mavs should be building their roster with 2020 in mind, the rest of this decade is toast for everyone in the NBA anyways, might as well embrace it. I would rather end up like the 76ers (Fultz, Embiid, Simmons) than on the mediocrity treadmill. Hinkie was right all along.

I'm guessing Mavs end up with Ntilikina with Monk/Markannan as the next likely choices. Best case is Smith Jr. falling.

jeffdjohnson said:

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Best case is Smith Jr. falling.

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jeffdjohnson said:

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Apparently Mavs turned down Mathews/#9 pick for Rubio/#7. Huge mistake if true. Getting the #7 pick guarantees one of Fox, Tatum, Isaac or Smith Jr. Plus Mathews is overpaid by $8M at least. Rubio is extremely limited but at least he is cheaper.

I suppose Mathews is good for a stealth tank though, which might be for the best anyways. Mavs should be building their roster with 2020 in mind, the rest of this decade is toast for everyone in the NBA anyways, might as well embrace it. I would rather end up like the 76ers (Fultz, Embiid, Simmons) than on the mediocrity treadmill. Hinkie was right all along.

I'm guessing Mavs end up with Ntilikina with Monk/Markannan as the next likely choices. Best case is Smith Jr. falling.

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I had read that it was Minnesota that didn't want to...