I think it is due to he increased use of metrics like JAWS and WAR rather than just the numerical milestones.

Hrmmmmm... Vlad Guerrero and Larry Walker.


I'll give you two guesses where the writer hails from.

free_mhayden said:

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Hrmmmmm... Vlad Guerrero and Larry Walker.


I'll give you two guesses where the writer hails from.

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From his twitter profile: "Chief of Bureau for The Associated Press in Canada. Baseball Hall of Fame voter. Canadian."

The odd thing is that he didn't vote for Raines. Well, one of the odd things. Just a horrible ballot. Vlad and Walker are deserving, but come on.

That ballot is a joke. It's worse than Murray Chass. At least Chass says he thinks everyone is tainted and that's why he can't vote for anyone. That ballot is now the clubhouse leader for stupidity.

As I said before, now the crazies start to show up. This won't be the last.

And we may have our 2nd blank ballot depending on how EY, the auditor's of the HOF votes, interpret a blank ballot that was signed and submitted with an abstention comment attached.

Ugh. He wrote an article explaining why he was abstaining, but sending in a blank ballot is a vote. He didn't abstain.

And baseball has decided what to do with that era. First, their names are on the ballot, so the powers that be have determined they are eligible for the Hall. Second, MLB has made it clear they will not be altering any records or putting an asterisk on anything. It's clear that MLB is taking the "history will be the judge of this era" position.

MLB.com has 14 voters. I'm not sure how many have already released their ballots, but here's their "grouped" release.

Quote:

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1T. Bagwell -- 14 votes
1T. Rodriguez -- 14 votes
3. Raines -- 13 votes
4. Hoffman -- 12 votes
5T. Bonds -- 10 votes
5T. Clemens -- 10 votes
7. Guerrero -- 9 votes
8T. Mussina -- 7 votes
8T. Smith -- 7 votes
10T. Martinez -- 5 votes
10T. McGriff -- 5 votes
10T. Schilling -- 5 votes
13. Ramirez -- 3 votes
14T. Wagner -- 2 votes
14T. Walker -- 2 votes
16T. Kent -- 1 vote
16T. Posada -- 1 vote
16T. Sheffield -- 1 vote

---

RetiredAg said:

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MLB.com has 14 voters. I'm not sure how many have already released their ballots, but here's their "grouped" release.

Quote:

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1T. Bagwell -- 14 votes
1T. Rodriguez -- 14 votes
3. Raines -- 13 votes
4. Hoffman -- 12 votes
5T. Bonds -- 10 votes
5T. Clemens -- 10 votes
7. Guerrero -- 9 votes
8T. Mussina -- 7 votes
8T. Smith -- 7 votes
10T. Martinez -- 5 votes
10T. McGriff -- 5 votes
10T. Schilling -- 5 votes
13. Ramirez -- 3 votes
14T. Wagner -- 2 votes
14T. Walker -- 2 votes
16T. Kent -- 1 vote
16T. Posada -- 1 vote
16T. Sheffield -- 1 vote

---

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Maybe the most reasonable group of ballots so far.

Buck Compton said:

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RetiredAg said:

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MLB.com has 14 voters. I'm not sure how many have already released their ballots, but here's their "grouped" release.

Quote:

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1T. Bagwell -- 14 votes
1T. Rodriguez -- 14 votes
3. Raines -- 13 votes
4. Hoffman -- 12 votes
5T. Bonds -- 10 votes
5T. Clemens -- 10 votes
7. Guerrero -- 9 votes
8T. Mussina -- 7 votes
8T. Smith -- 7 votes
10T. Martinez -- 5 votes
10T. McGriff -- 5 votes
10T. Schilling -- 5 votes
13. Ramirez -- 3 votes
14T. Wagner -- 2 votes
14T. Walker -- 2 votes
16T. Kent -- 1 vote
16T. Posada -- 1 vote
16T. Sheffield -- 1 vote

---

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Maybe the most reasonable group of ballots so far.

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I'm still banging the drum, you can't vote for Hoffman or Smith without voting for Wagner.

Walker, Shef, Kent, & McGrif still get no love.

People vote with both logic and intuition combined. That is, stats and eye test together. Eye test rules out Sheffield and McGriff to me. Kent was elite offensively for his position, but just didn't feel like a HOF to me, especially with his defense.

Wagner was explosive, but again, the bar for closers will always be different and Hoffman did it for a LONG time.

Buck Compton said:

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People vote with both logic and intuition combined. That is, stats and eye test together. Eye test rules out Sheffield and McGriff to me. Kent was elite offensively for his position, but just didn't feel like a HOF to me, especially with his defense.

Wagner was explosive, but again, the bar for closers will always be different and Hoffman did it for a LONG time.

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To me, McGriff is the Mussina of position players. Never really seemed to be elite, but just so damn consistently good. I'd have no issue with either of them being in (or out), although it looks like McGriff will never come close. Sheffield, to me, is a HOFer. I was surprised at how strong his numbers actually are.

Good article on Pudge: http://joeposnanski.com/ballot-9-ivan-rodriguez/

RetiredAg said:

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Buck Compton said:

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People vote with both logic and intuition combined. That is, stats and eye test together. Eye test rules out Sheffield and McGriff to me. Kent was elite offensively for his position, but just didn't feel like a HOF to me, especially with his defense.

Wagner was explosive, but again, the bar for closers will always be different and Hoffman did it for a LONG time.

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To me, McGriff is the Mussina of position players. Never really seemed to be elite, but just so damn consistently good. I'd have no issue with either of them being in (or out), although it looks like McGriff will never come close. Sheffield, to me, is a HOFer. I was surprised at how strong his numbers actually are.

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Sheffield is strange.

Just on raw numbers:
OPS . 907
OPS+ 140
2696 hits
509 HR
WAR 60.3

His problem is the last 3 are cumulative stats and he played 22 years with 8 different teams across both leagues. As a comparison Bagwell's WAR is 79.6 in 14.5 seasons. Even Raines, in 23 seasons has a WAR of 69.3

He did have 7 years of playing 100 games or less.

Sheffield couldn't keep his mouth shut and likely rubbed a lot of writers the wrong way during his career. It's also why he played for eight teams. His ties to Bonds and Balco will never get him votes from the anti-PED voters, so he likely has no chance.

Quote:

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Sheffield couldn't keep his mouth shut and likely rubbed a lot of writers the wrong way during his career.

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This. I think you see this with Schilling as well, although his rubbing writers the wrong way has been mostly during his retirement. Lesson: wait till you're in the Hall to start being abrasive and obnoxious w/ the voters.

I think the writers need to keep their ego in check and vote based on play and not worry about who was mean to them.

aggie1906 said:

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I think the writers need to keep their ego in check and vote based on play and not worry about who was mean to them.

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Agreed, but it's not surprising. Just human nature. For what it's worth, I know some of the advanced metrics are favorable to Schilling, but I'm not a Schilling-in-the-Hall fan based on his career.

aggie1906 said:

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I think the writers need to keep their ego in check and vote based on play and not worry about who was mean to them.

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"5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

iBrad said:

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aggie1906 said:

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I think the writers need to keep their ego in check and vote based on play and not worry about who was mean to them.

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"5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

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The problem becomes the arbitrary nature in which the character clause is enforced. Ty Cobb was a virulent racist. Gaylord Perry cheated throughout his entire career. Those guys got in despite seriously questionable character and/or sportsmanship. But, it goes to the question of whether or not being abrasive w/ the media is a slight on someone's character. I think a much greater argument for invoking the character clause can be made for Schilling than Sheff.

iBrad said:

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aggie1906 said:

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I think the writers need to keep their ego in check and vote based on play and not worry about who was mean to them.

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"5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

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Honestly, I'd wish they'd get rid of that character clause. A person's character and integrity are extremely important in terms of what kind of person you are, but this is a baseball museum. Not to mention, it's a baseball museum that has countless inductees of highly questionable character and integrity. But there's not even a standard view of what constitutes good vs bad character. It's entirely subjective and arbitrary.

SF Chronicle's group release:

Slusser:

Quote:

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Bonds
Clemens
Pudge
Bagwell
Raines
Vlad
Hoffman
Martinez
Mussina
Schilling

Each year Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have been on the ballot, I have not voted for them -- until this year. After much deliberation, I came to the conclusion that with the top leadership of the sport from the steroid era -- Bud Selig -- going into the Hall of Fame alongside the best managers, leading media members and several of the most prominent players, it is time to stop holding two men accountable for the entire mess. Everyone in the game, including the media, was complicit in the PEDs scandals to some degree, and the Hall of Fame appears to have come to some peace with the era.

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Schulman:

Quote:

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Bonds
Clemens
Pudge
Bagwell
Raines
Sheffield
Hoffman
Martinez
Mussina
Schilling

When steroid-era players began appearing on the ballot, I decided I needed either to reject or accept the entire era because nobody can say with certainty who did and did not use, particularly before testing began, and even now. I could not imagine a Hall of Fame that excluded a whole generation of players and from the outset have voted for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who were the best of their era.

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Shea:

Quote:

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Bagwell
Bonds
Clemens
Vlad
Hoffman
Kent
Martinez
Raines
Pudge
Smith

It's my second year voting for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. I came around on Edgar Martinez. If closers can go to the Hall, so can a designated hitter. I thought Vladimir Guerrero was a Hall of Famer when watching him play. Nothing has changed. I hesitated on Ivan Rodriguez, who lost 30 pounds once steroid testing began, but I voted for another catcher who played under a cloud, Mike Piazza. So Pudge is in. One final vote for Lee Smith, who'll drop off the ballot.

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Killion:

Quote:

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Vlad
Hoffman
Martinez
Raines
Smith

I never vote for more than four or five players, always vote for Lee Smith and Tim Raines, changed my mind on Edgar Martinez this year and still don't vote for players with clear evidence and history of steroid use.

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What clear evidence does she have on guys like Pudge or Bagwell?

Jenkins:

Quote:

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Bonds
Clemens
Vlad
Hoffman
Martinez
Ramirez
Pudge
Schilling
Sosa

Call me a lunatic, but I vote for the Hall of Fame as consistently as anyone in America. I voted for Barry Bonds and other PED legends from the beginning. I don't waver on votes. I don't "wait a while." And I don't stop voting for someone. No ambiguity, no character judgments. It's all about the best players of their time. This is a museum, not a courtroom, and all the rogues should have their misdeeds clearly stated on their Cooperstown plaques.

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Kroichick:

Quote:

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Bagwell
Vlad
Hoffman
Kent
Mussina

The ballot, put together by Hall of Fame officials (not writers), asks voters to consider "integrity, sportsmanship and character." If that's our guide, the decision is clear: Steroid users tarnished the integrity of competition (in this context, much worse than personal integrity) and do not deserve a spot in the Hall. It's a murky process to identify likely PED users, obviously, but I go by the standards of a civil trial if there's a "preponderance of evidence," I won't vote for a player.

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And in a civil trial, I doubt you'd have a "preponderance of evidence" to convict Pudge.

I'm not saying I agree with the clause, I'm just saying that as long as it's there, voters will use it to their discretion.

Once those new SF Chronicle ballots post to the tracker, Pudge will fall below 78% to 77.9%

Put another way (if I did this correctly), Pudge appeared on 128 of the first 150 ballots, good for 85.3%.

Since then, he has only appeared on 49 of 81 ballots, good for 60.5%.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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Put another way (if I did this correctly), Pudge appeared on 128 of the first 150 ballots, good for 85.3%.

Since then, he has only appeared on 49 of 81 ballots, good for 60.5%.

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Yeah, I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that he's not making it this year. It's unbelievable that only 1 catcher in history has been elected on the first ballot. My expectations at this point are:

2017
Raines
Bagwell

2018
Pudge
Chipper
Vlad
Hoffman

2019
Bonds
Clemens
Rivera
Martinez

Just such a logjam. 4-member classes are very rare, from what I understand, but there's going to have to be some in the coming years if these guys are going to take their rightful place in the Hall.

Hoffman might still sneak in this year. He has been trending up just slightly over the last 100 ballots.

The last predictable be projection for tomorrow has a 2 man class and Pudge at 74.5%. The accidental blank ballot might keep him out. That one and Chass' purposeful blank one may do some real damage.

mathguy86 said:

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The last predictable be projection for tomorrow has a 2 man class and Pudge at 74.5%. The accidental blank ballot might keep him out. That one and Chass' purposeful blank one may do some real damage.

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Exactly what happened to Biggio. Bunch of idiots out there.

Today's the day:

241 Ballots Received (54.4%)
Tim Raines (214 - 88.8%) +29 (20)
Jeff Bagwell (212 - 88.0%) +21 (12)
Pudge Rodriguez (190 - 78.8%)
Trevor Hoffman (175 - 72.6%) +21 (38)
Vladimir Guerrero (173 - 71.8%)
Edgar Martinez (157 - 65.1%) +42 (137)
Barry Bonds (154 - 63.9%) +22 (134)
Roger Clemens (152 - 63.1%) +23 (130)

Pudge with a nice run here the past couple days. At this point, he's a coin flip. Looks like it will be Raines, Bagwell and possibly either Pudge or Hoffman.

aggie1906 said:

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Bagwell will join the elites today. Well deserved and long overdue for one of the greatest first basemen of all time.

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Agreed. I wasn't much of a fan of him going to the Hall in the past, but as I started looking deeper, it became clear that he's one of the all-time great 1B. Congrats to Bags and Astros fans. Hoping Pudge can join him on stage this year.

USA Today voters:

These were already in the tracker, so no impact on totals.

Quote:

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Peter Barzilai
Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Vladimir Guerrero, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker

Gabe Lacques
Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Trevor Hoffman, Guerrero, Raines, Rodriguez, Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Walker

Bob Nightengale
Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffman, Fred McGriff, Raines, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Sosa

Jorge L. Ortiz
Bagwell, Raines, Hoffman, Jeff Kent, Guerrero, Rodriguez

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