I need to relook at Shef's #s. I don't remember them Hall good.

aggie1906 said:

---

I need to relook at Shef's #s. I don't remember them Hall good.

---

I was the same way. I saw his name and immediately dismissed him. Then I looked at his numbers and changed my opinion. For someone that seemed so visible, he quietly put together a very strong resume.

509 HR
1676 RBI
2689 Hits
.292 BA
.907 OPS
140 OPS+
253 SB
60.3 WAR
9-time All-Star
1 batting title

Baseball Reference "Similarity Scores":
Chipper Jones (892)
Mel Ott (877)
Reggie Jackson (864)
Ken Griffey (851)
Fred McGriff (850)
Mickey Mantle (840)
Billy Williams (837)
Frank Robinson (836)
Frank Thomas (832)
Al Kaline (830)

Another 9 ballots:

143 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (134 - 93.7%) +11 (12)
Tim Raines (130 - 90.9%) +22 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (122 - 85.3%)
Vladimir Guerrero (110 - 76.9%)
Barry Bonds (102 - 71.3%) +17 (134)
Roger Clemens (102 - 71.3%) +18 (130)
Trevor Hoffman (101 - 70.6%) +8 (38)
Edgar Martinez (101 - 70.6%) +25 (137)

Peter Gammons: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-the-hall-of-fame-ballot/

Bagwell:

Quote:

---

will write on Bagwell later in the week, but by almost every measure he's among the six best first basemen, ever, the best since World War II and MLB integration other than Albert Pujols. Great baserunner. Incredible first baseman whose star soccer feet allowed him to get off the bag and throw to second with a baserunner as well as any righthanded first baseman since Vic Power.

---

Pudge:

Quote:

---

The newcomers. Pudge Rodriguez is a no-brainer. Joe Torre once said in an interview with me that Pudge "probably is the best catcher of all time." Leads all-time catchers in games caught, hits, runs, RBI's, threw out 46% of opposing baserunners (league average in his career 31%), more homers than any catcher other than Piazza and Pudge Fisk.

---

Another 18 ballots:

161 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (149 - 92.5%) +14 (12)
Tim Raines (147 - 91.3%) +22 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (136 - 84.5%)
Vladimir Guerrero (123 - 76.4%)
Trevor Hoffman (116 - 72.0%) +10 (38)
Barry Bonds (113 - 70.2%) +20 (134)
Roger Clemens (113 - 70.2%) +21 (130)
Edgar Martinez (111 - 68.9%) +27 (137)

Bagwell and Raines have both reached their projected net gain among returning voters needed to reach 75%.

Hoffman was listed at higher rate on private ballots vs public ballots last year. If he gets a similar increase on private ballots as he has for public ballots, he might be able to sneak in this year.

I think it's almost safe to assume that Pudge will get in even if he sees a significant drop on private ballots.

Forum Troll said:

---

Quote:

---

Bagwell and Raines have both reached their projected net gain among returning voters needed to reach 75%.

---

---

They are also doing well with first time voters getting all 12 votes to date.

3B Paul 97 said:

---

Forum Troll said:

---

Quote:

---

Bagwell and Raines have both reached their projected net gain among returning voters needed to reach 75%.

---

---

They are also doing well with first time voters getting all 12 votes to date.

---

Yeah I think Bags/Raines/Pudge are all 12/12 on 1st time ballots.

Keep this link handy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/unskewing-the-polls-in-the-hall-of-fame-election/

Guerrero, Hoffman, Rodriguez, Raines, Bagwell. That would be a well-deserving group. Obviously Clemens and Bonds belong as well (even without steroids), but not this year apparently.

Another 11 ballots:

172 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (158 - 91.9%) +14 (12)
Tim Raines (157 - 91.3%) +24 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (142 - 82.6%)
Vladimir Guerrero (128 - 74.4%)
Trevor Hoffman (124 - 72.1%) +13 (38)
Edgar Martinez (119 - 69.2%) +29 (137)
Barry Bonds (118 - 68.6%) +20 (134)
Roger Clemens (117 - 68.0%) +21 (130)


Things don't look to be trending well with Pudge and Vlad. Boston Globe voters just released as a group. Still think Hoffman falls short. Martinez continues to his very strong showing.

If the remaining BWAA writers **** this up and only allow Bagwell and Raines in, I will be pissed. They really need to get all of Bagwell, Raines, Pudge, Vlad, and Hoffman off the ballot or at least 3 of those guys to start clearing out space for the Kents, Wagners, and Walkers of the ballot to get a fair look in their last remaining years. McGriff won't get a deserved look in all 10 of his years on the ballot.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

If the remaining BWAA writers **** this up and only allow Bagwell and Raines in, I will be pissed. They really need to get all of Bagwell, Raines, Pudge, Vlad, and Hoffman off the ballot or at least 3 of those guys to start clearing out space for the Kents, Wagners, and Walkers of the ballot to get a fair look in their last remaining years. McGriff won't get a deserved look in all 10 of his years on the ballot.

---

Agreed! I feel for McGriff. He is a classic borderline guy, but 493 HR, 1550 RBI, and 6 times in MVP top-10 deserves a better look than he received.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

If the remaining BWAA writers **** this up and only allow Bagwell and Raines in, I will be pissed. They really need to get all of Bagwell, Raines, Pudge, Vlad, and Hoffman off the ballot or at least 3 of those guys to start clearing out space for the Kents, Wagners, and Walkers of the ballot to get a fair look in their last remaining years. McGriff won't get a deserved look in all 10 of his years on the ballot.

---

Prepare to be pissed.

Pudge is sitting about where Bagwell was this time last year this same time and the last 50 or so votes to come in are always harsh. Those are the anonymous idiots and the "never on a first ballot" guys. He's going to be real close one way or the other.

Bench on Pudge: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2017/01/06/legend-johnny-bench-says-ivan-rodriguez-first-ballot-hall-famer-will-never-vote-pudge

Pudge was pudge

And the Murray Chass ballot becomes the worst ballot of 181 submitted so far.

He voted for:

That's right, no one. The only way for a worse ballot now would be a ballot with only Casey Blake receiving a vote.

http://www.murraychass.com/?p=10495

His reasoning for the blank ballot:

Quote:

---

"As for my HOF voting, in my first year as a voter, I voted for 10 players." [That was and is the maximum, which some voters want the Hall to raise; why I don't understand.] "By the time of my second vote, I realized that by voting for 10, I was saying I wanted to see 10 elected. What a horrible thought, to make people sit through 10 speeches in the hot July Cooperstown sun. I also realized that by having 10 players inducted on the same day lessened the honor for each. From then on I voted for only the players I considered the best of the elite."

---

Thank you Murray for considering the fans who would not want to sit through 10 speeches in July.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

And the Murray Chass ballot becomes the worst ballot of 181 submitted so far.

He voted for:

That's right, no one. The only way for a worse ballot now would be a ballot with only Casey Blake receiving a vote.

http://www.murraychass.com/?p=10495

His reasoning for the blank ballot:

Quote:

---

"As for my HOF voting, in my first year as a voter, I voted for 10 players." [That was and is the maximum, which some voters want the Hall to raise; why I don't understand.] "By the time of my second vote, I realized that by voting for 10, I was saying I wanted to see 10 elected. What a horrible thought, to make people sit through 10 speeches in the hot July Cooperstown sun. I also realized that by having 10 players inducted on the same day lessened the honor for each. From then on I voted for only the players I considered the best of the elite."

---

Thank you Murray for considering the fans who would not want to sit through 10 speeches in July.

---

That is easily the most idiotic reasoning I've ever seen with regards to HOF voting. In no way does it lessen the honor, and if fans don't want to sit through 10 speeches, then they are free to stay home or leave after their guy speaks.

2016 vs 2017

Bagwell finished just short of making it in 2016. He's a lock.



Huge jump by Raines. He will be in.


Now do we have a 3rd?


It is much harder to judge Pudge since this is his first year. They compare him to Piazza when he got in last year. Mike had a ~3% drop from public announced at this point and final. If that is the same for Pudge then he'll get him. I am learning towards a bigger drop due to him being on for the first time. As long as it is under a 7% he will be him. This one is coming down to the wire.


4th? Nope

Hoffman made enough gains this year so that he should be able to make it next year, maybe 2019 at worst.

Tough day so far for Pudge. He is 0 for 3 and has dropped to 80%.

And as expected, the crazy votes are starting to show up. One idiot who hasn't voted in the last 2 years decided to sharpen his pencil and that Vlad, Hoffman and Raines were his choices this year.

Not to be outdone, Jon Heyman voted for Bonds but not Clemens. How the hell can you justify that?

Quote:

---

That is easily the most idiotic reasoning I've ever seen with regards to HOF voting. In no way does it lessen the honor, and if fans don't want to sit through 10 speeches, then they are free to stay home or leave after their guy speaks.

---

His father beat him, or something traumatic happened to him. Maybe he was never good enough to earn a letter in high school. Such loathing of the institution he is in charge of protecting. Kind of like a secret service agent working for Obama.

A thought provoking response and analysis of Murray Chass' purposefully blank HOF ballot. From Baseball Prospectus.

The guy's an ass. Listen to his interview with MLB network:

He's more insufferable than you Rangers' fans

Raines overtakes Bagwell for highest vote getter. B**** has been taking a hit, but Pudge has been left off even more lately.

If Chass doesn't think BBWAA should be voting then ethically he should not have turned in a blank ballot. Because that's a vote. He should haven't turned in a thing.

aggie1906 said:

---

Raines overtakes Bagwell for highest vote getter. B**** has been taking a hit, but Pudge has been left off even more lately.

---

Yeah, I'm just going to assume that Pudge isn't going to make it at this point. Not trending well at all.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

The guy's an ass. Listen to his interview with MLB network:

He's more insufferable than you Rangers' fans

---

Sorry, I can't hear you over the back-to-back division championships.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

Keep this link handy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/unskewing-the-polls-in-the-hall-of-fame-election/

---

For the first time since he released his predictions, Vlad falls below 75%. Pudge is not far behind.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

Mr.Ackar07 said:

---

Keep this link handy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/unskewing-the-polls-in-the-hall-of-fame-election/

---

For the first time since he released his predictions, Vlad falls below 75%. Pudge is not far behind.

---

He's using the assumption that Pudge's drop in the private ballots will mirror Piazza's (-8.5%), but I think there's reason to believe that Pudge's drop will be less. Piazza's entire candidacy revolved around his power hitting -- something most directly associate steroids with. Pudge's candidacy revolves more around his defensive skill-set which I think will produce less of a dip when the "I don't want a player to know I think he did steroids but I'm going to privately vote that way" ballots are cast.

I bet we see Pudge closer to a 78% total. Closer than it should be, but not as close as the above site projects.

But pudge may(will) get some of the "no first ballot" or "only elite of the elite" on first ballot types.

I would not be shocked to see Pudge be +/- 3 votes either side of 75% and for Vlad to end up -5 to -10

aggie1906 said:

---

But pudge may(will) get some of the "no first ballot" or "only elite of the elite" on first ballot types.

---

Yeah, I think the "no first ballot" thing will bite him. I've seen a couple voters leave him off and state that one of their criteria is the "only elite of the elite" standard, which makes no sense to me. Arguably the greatest all-around catcher in baseball history is the "elite of the elite". But, as we've seen through the years, logical application of voting standards is not required in the HOF process.