Let's go, Bags!!

This was such a huge late surge by Pudge. Feel a little better about his chances now.

RetiredAg said:

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This was such a huge late surge by Pudge. Feel a little better about his chances now.

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If Hoffman can sneak in as well, that would remove 6 players from the ballot (assuming Posada stays below 5%) to be replaced next year by Chipper, Andruw, Johan, Thome, and Vizquel. Not to mention Johnny Damon and Scott Rolen have borderline HOF monitor/standards according to Baseball Reference. The 2019 influx won't be any better with Rivera, Halladay, Berkman, Tejada, and Michael Young; I think only the first 2 stand a chance though.

He's surged almost a full 1%. Its been very good. Last year right now Bagwell was at (roughly) 78% He finished below 72%. Raines too. He was in until the last day. Those last day votes are a MFer. Going forward they cant hide behind the anonymity anymore and maybe it will help smooth things out. I still think there's a decent chance those 2 blank votes are going to come in play. I also think Hoffman still has a shot as relievers go up not down at the end. A 4 person class would be historically huge.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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RetiredAg said:

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This was such a huge late surge by Pudge. Feel a little better about his chances now.

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If Hoffman can sneak in as well, that would remove 6 players from the ballot (assuming Posada stays below 5%) to be replaced next year by Chipper, Andruw, Johan, Thome, and Vizquel. Not to mention Johnny Damon and Scott Rolen have borderline HOF monitor/standards according to Baseball Reference. The 2019 influx won't be any better with Rivera, Halladay, Berkman, Tejada, and Michael Young; I think only the first 2 stand a chance though.

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If Pudge and Hoffman don't make it this year, I would not be surprised to see guys like Damon, Johan and Rolen miss the 5% mark. Chipper, Andruw, Thome and Vizquel will be safe. IMO, the only ones listed above that I'd consider HOF-worthy, at least without more research, would be Chipper, Thome, Vizquel and Rivera.

Omar Vizquel is not a HOFer. Not to me. Not even close. Yes he was an outstanding defensive SS, but he was a black hole at the plate. His OPS+ was 82 and his OPS was .688. Those are brutally bad numbers. As a comparison, Trammell's case fell on deal ears and he had OPS+ 110 and OPS of .767.

In a nutshell, Omar Vizquel was the SS equivalent of Jim Sundberg. The offensive numbers are really close and defensively they rate (per position) almost the same.

Don't let Halladay fool you. He only has 203 wins, but he was pretty dominant for a 10 year stretch. From 2002-2011 he made 8 AS appearances, finished in the Top 5 CY votes 7 times with 2 wins, garnered MVP votes in 2 years, and accumulated 170 of those 203 wins. He had a very slow start to his career. He still managed 65.6 WAR for his career which is 41st among pitchers.

Among Hall of Fame statistics on baseball reference:
Black Ink: 48/Avg is 40
Gray Ink: 180/Avg is 185
HOF Monitor: 126/Avg is 120
HOF Statistics: 45/Avg is 50
JAWS: 57.6 - 42nd among pitchers/Avg is 62.1

His most similar comps during that stretch are Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, and Mike Mussina.

mathguy86 said:

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Omar Vizquel is not a HOFer. Not to me. Not even close. Yes he was an outstanding defensive SS, but he was a black hole at the plate. His OPS+ was 82 and his OPS was .688. Those are brutally bad numbers. As a comparison, Trammell's case fell on deal ears and he had OPS+ 110 and OPS of .767.

In a nutshell, Omar Vizquel was the SS equivalent of Jim Sundberg. The offensive numbers are really close and defensively they rate (per position) almost the same.

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Yeah, Vizquel was too bad at the plate to get a nod from me. You have to be good at everything and great/elite at at least a few things to get a vote from me.

This may be the most random ballot I've ever seen. No discernible logic behind it.

mathguy86 said:

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Omar Vizquel is not a HOFer. Not to me. Not even close. Yes he was an outstanding defensive SS, but he was a black hole at the plate. His OPS+ was 82 and his OPS was .688. Those are brutally bad numbers. As a comparison, Trammell's case fell on deal ears and he had OPS+ 110 and OPS of .767.

In a nutshell, Omar Vizquel was the SS equivalent of Jim Sundberg. The offensive numbers are really close and defensively they rate (per position) almost the same.

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Good point. Like I said, I will need to look at them more closely. I didn't realize Vizquel was that bad w/ the bat.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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Don't let Halladay fool you. He only has 203 wins, but he was pretty dominant for a 10 year stretch. From 2002-2011 he made 8 AS appearances, finished in the Top 5 CY votes 7 times with 2 wins, garnered MVP votes in 2 years, and accumulated 170 of those 203 wins. He had a very slow start to his career. He still managed 65.6 WAR for his career which is 41st among pitchers.

Among Hall of Fame statistics on baseball reference:
Black Ink: 48/Avg is 40
Gray Ink: 180/Avg is 185
HOF Monitor: 126/Avg is 120
HOF Statistics: 45/Avg is 50
JAWS: 57.6 - 42nd among pitchers/Avg is 62.1

His most similar comps during that stretch are Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, and Mike Mussina.

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I wrestled w/ him on my first look. He's a hard one, because you mention, he had a slow start to his career and injuries seemed to derail the end of his career. I'm not too concerned about the W totals, but his similar comps make me think he's a classic Hall of Very Good guy. But, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him with a similar voting pattern to Mussina's.

Exactly. I have no gripe with the 4 he did choose. I think McGriff is woefully underappreciated and wouldn't mind him in the Hall. But how one can leave off Clemens while voting for Bonds, or vice versa, is beyond me.

Was doing some digging on the 1998-1999 seasons when many of these players were in their prime (or at least in part of it).

Can someone please explain to me why Chipper Jones won the NL MVP over Bagwell in 1999? Or how Sammy Sosa won in 1998 over McGwire? Neither of those votes make much sense looking back on things, except for the Cubs making the Wild Card in 98.

I was younger and not paying much attention, but I don't remember a lot of outrage at either one. The votes really weren't even close. I can see either player winning, but not in a landslide.

mathguy86 said:

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RetiredAg said:

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This may be the most random ballot I've ever seen. No discernible logic behind it.

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Nuts. You simply cannot defend a vote for Bonds and not Clemens. Not by any rational or even irrational standard. That's someone with a grudge.

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I can, I think the argument for him was Bonds was a HOF or on the cusp prior to taking PED's and that Clemens while very good, still needed a few more seasons to be HOF worthy.

nhayden said:

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mathguy86 said:

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RetiredAg said:

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This may be the most random ballot I've ever seen. No discernible logic behind it.

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Nuts. You simply cannot defend a vote for Bonds and not Clemens. Not by any rational or even irrational standard. That's someone with a grudge.

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I can, I think the argument for him was Bonds was a HOF or on the cusp prior to taking PED's and that Clemens while very good, still needed a few more seasons to be HOF worthy.

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Clemens had won three Cy Young Awards and an MVP by 1991 (his first seven years). Led the league in ERA three times during that span (including a 1.93) and also won 20 games three times.

If we assume he didn't start using until Toronto in 1997 (his bounce back year, Age 33), his stat line would already read:

12 Seasons
192 Wins, 111 Losses
3.05 ERA, 150.8 ERA+
100 CG
2,590 Ks, 856 BBs (3.025 K/BB ratio)
1.158 WHIP
81.2 WAR

3-time Cy Young (Top 3 five times)
1-time MVP (Top 3 twice)
5-time All-Star (when it actually meant a little more)

Assuming he had his average of his last three Boston years (~5 WAR) until age 37, he would be an undisputable HOF. But was just as borderline as Bonds was pre-PEDs. I think people forget how dominant Clemens was right out of school.

As is, the PEDs no-doubt extended his career and let him rack up more numbers. My guess is he started using in Toronto (or maybe his last year in Boston).

Buck Compton said:

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Can someone please explain to me why Chipper Jones won the NL MVP over Bagwell in 1999? Or how Sammy Sosa won in 1998 over McGwire? Neither of those votes make much sense looking back on things, except for the Cubs making the Wild Card in 98.

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I don't think you can say the '99 NL MVP vote doesn't make sense. I would agree that the vote should have been closer, but I imagine Chipper being on a 103-win team helped lead to the disparity. Not that a 97-win Astros team is unimpressive, but they were the 3rd best record in the league. Chipper and Bagwell were more than deserving, though I think they got that vote right.


Chipper
45 HR
110 RBI
.319 BA
1.074 OPS
6.9 WAR
169 OPS+


Bagwell
42 HR
126 RBI
.304 BA
1.045 OPS
7.4 WAR
164 OPS+

I'm surprised those stats had such a low WAR

Is that in line with typical , do they normally factor in defense in the WAR?

That's more what I meant. It was a completely lopsided vote. If you take the extra SB into account, the OPS and SLG basically equal out.

I think the being on a winning team aspect was more pronounced back then. Probably why Sosa won in 98.

astros4545 said:

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I'm surprised those stats had such a low WAR

Is that in line with typical , do they normally factor in defense in the WAR?

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They just didn't pay attention to WAR yet. There was an "imperfect understanding of where runs come from" hah

Here are a few prime examples: http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/29340/the-list-worst-mvp-winners

It should also be noted that Bagwell led the league in runs scored in '99. He also led the league in walks. And to add to that, he swiped 30 bags.

When looking at their numbers, you also need to take into account the home stadiums. Look at their home/away splits from '99. Switch stadiums and it's a runaway.

Bagwell
H: .271/.430/.469 12 HR 47 RBI
A: .337/.477/.709 30 HR 79 RBI

Chipper
H: .366/.467/.732 25 HR 59 RBI
A: .275/.416/.540 20 HR 51 RBI

Pudge and Bags!

Bagwell, Raines & Rodriguez

iBrad said:

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It should also be noted that Bagwell led the league in runs scored in '99. He also led the league in walks. And to add to that, he swiped 30 bags.

When looking at their numbers, you also need to take into account the home stadiums. Look at their home/away splits from '99. Switch stadiums and it's a runaway.

Bagwell
H: .271/.430/.469 12 HR 47 RBI
A: .337/.477/.709 30 HR 79 RBI

Chipper
H: .366/.467/.732 25 HR 59 RBI
A: .275/.416/.540 20 HR 51 RBI

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People always forget Bagwell played over half of his games for over half of his career in the Astrodome.

RetiredAg said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Can someone please explain to me why Chipper Jones won the NL MVP over Bagwell in 1999? Or how Sammy Sosa won in 1998 over McGwire? Neither of those votes make much sense looking back on things, except for the Cubs making the Wild Card in 98.

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I don't think you can say the '99 NL MVP vote doesn't make sense. I would agree that the vote should have been closer, but I imagine Chipper being on a 103-win team helped lead to the disparity. Not that a 97-win Astros team is unimpressive, but they were the 3rd best record in the league. Chipper and Bagwell were more than deserving, though I think they got that vote right.


Chipper
45 HR
110 RBI
.319 BA
1.074 OPS
6.9 WAR
169 OPS+


Bagwell
42 HR
126 RBI
.304 BA
1.045 OPS
7.4 WAR
164 OPS+

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I'm still a little bitter that Biggio's 9.4 WAR in '97 only got him 4th place in the MVP voting.

Bagwell (86%), Raines (86%) & Rodriguez (76%) -

Hoffman (74%) and Guerrero (72%) just miss.

YES!!!! Pudge!

Good class. Already making road trip plans.

Name 2017 votes (percent) Years on ballot
Jeff Bagwell 381 (86.2) 7
Tim Raines 380 (86.0) 10
Ivan Rodriguez 336 (76.0) 1
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Trevor Hoffman 327 (74.0) 2
Vladimir Guerrero 317 (71.7) 1
Edgar Martinez 259 (58.6) 8
Roger Clemens 239 (54.1) 5
Barry Bonds 238 (53.8) 5
Mike Mussina 229 (51.8) 4
Curt Schilling 199 (45.0) 5
Lee Smith 151 (34.2) 15
Manny Ramirez 105 (23.8) 1
Larry Walker 97 (21.9) 7
Fred McGriff 96 (21.7) 9
Jeff Kent 74 (16.7) 4
Gary Sheffield 59 (13.3) 3
Billy Wagner 45 (10.2) 2
Sammy Sosa 38 (8.6) 5
Jorge Posada 17 (3.8) 1
Magglio Ordoez 3 (0.7) 1
Edgar Renteria 2 (0.5) 1
Jason Varitek 2 (0.5) 1
Tim Wakefield 1 (0.2) 1
Casey Blake 0 1
Pat Burrell 0 1
Orlando Cabrera 0 1
Mike Cameron 0 1
J.D. Drew 0 1
Carlos Guillen 0 1
Derrek Lee 0 1
Melvin Mora 0 1
Arthur Rhodes 0 1
Freddy Sanchez 0 1
Matt Stairs 0 1

Great class. Still chaps my ass to this day how Biggio didn't go first ballot. First 3000 hit member EVER not to go first ballot (excluding Raffy Juicer Palmero)

Agree Bond - it is also ridiculous it took Bagwell 7 years mainly because of suspicion.

Buck Compton said:

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Was doing some digging on the 1998-1999 seasons when many of these players were in their prime (or at least in part of it).

Can someone please explain to me why Chipper Jones won the NL MVP over Bagwell in 1999? Or how Sammy Sosa won in 1998 over McGwire? Neither of those votes make much sense looking back on things, except for the Cubs making the Wild Card in 98.

I was younger and not paying much attention, but I don't remember a lot of outrage at either one. The votes really weren't even close. I can see either player winning, but not in a landslide.

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It was almost solely because of timing. IIRC Chipper's best months were August and Sept and those were Bagwell's worst. I remember feeling that Bagwell was the obvious NL MVP choice basically up until the end of the year when momentum totally shifted to Jones. Biggio also got some MVP votes so probably there was also sentiment that Chipper was more important to his team (which was likely hogwash with their pitching)

Raines! Loved that guy.