HOF Ballot Released

50,006 Views | 475 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by mhayden
Farmer1906
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RetiredAg said:

Agreed. I think Pudge is going to be very similar to Biggio in the year prior to him making it. What was it? Something like 3 votes?
Yes, but that was year 2. He wasn't all that close year 1.

Edit: He had 74.8% and was just 2 votes short.
Mathguy64
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That year Biggio was short by 2, one moron turned in a blank ballot as protest for steroids. So it was a double kick in the nuts because it was a no vote and a vote in the total. If that vote had not been sent in he might have made it that year.
Say Chowdah
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iBrad said:


Biggio had five other seasons in which he hit 20+ HRs, including four in the Astrodome. Why are you ignoring those seasons?

If you omit the seasons cut short by injury and strikes, his home run totals from '93 to '06 look like this.

21, 22, 15, 22, 20, 16, 20, 15, 15, 24, 26, 21

But if you're still skeptical about the three years you're pointing out, Biggio also got rid of the high leg kick he'd used his entire career prior to that stretch. That change led to better contact and fewer strikeouts. But despite the slight increase in HRs, none of those seasons were in his top five for slugging percentage.

Is it possible that Biggio could have used PEDs during his career? Of course. It's possible for anyone that played in that era because they were so prevalent throughout all of baseball. I just don't think his numbers show much.

PED's did more than help HR's. It helped durability, overall conditioning levels, pain management, focus, eye hand coordination, reflexes etc. He likely did use PED's (I'd wager it is 75% or better). I KNOW that I would have used them regardless of whether I was a home run hitter or not. The cost of using them is the risk of public humiliation if you got caught, perhaps a suspension if you got pinched more than once. The cost if you didn't use them is potentially MILLIONS of dollars a year and the added risk that you will lose your starting position to someone else who is also weighing the options. Between those two, I juice every time!

PED's was a part of the game. It was institutionally sanctioned (albeit by claimed ignorance) as evidenced in the Mitchell Investigation. The league (comprised by owners who value profits - it is their job to value profits) and higher scoring games means more viewers, means more seats sold, meaning more tv contracts, meaning more ad dollars, meaning more profits, meaning higher salaries etc etc etc.

Regarding the Mitchell Report: George Mitchell and his team could only get what they could find and NOBODY was talking to them. Yet, they still found 1000's of pages of documents. The players were certainly aware of it, and, did nothing. They were all in on it (players, management, ownership, league officials, union etc). It wouldn't even surprise me to learn that even the TV execs knew, sportswriters knew (or at least suspected) and the key sponsors knew it. It was the MLB's Quiz Show Scandal. Everyone was making piles of money so they all looked the other way.

Let all the players in.
Farmer1906
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Say Chowdah said:

iBrad said:


Biggio had five other seasons in which he hit 20+ HRs, including four in the Astrodome. Why are you ignoring those seasons?

If you omit the seasons cut short by injury and strikes, his home run totals from '93 to '06 look like this.

21, 22, 15, 22, 20, 16, 20, 15, 15, 24, 26, 21

But if you're still skeptical about the three years you're pointing out, Biggio also got rid of the high leg kick he'd used his entire career prior to that stretch. That change led to better contact and fewer strikeouts. But despite the slight increase in HRs, none of those seasons were in his top five for slugging percentage.

Is it possible that Biggio could have used PEDs during his career? Of course. It's possible for anyone that played in that era because they were so prevalent throughout all of baseball. I just don't think his numbers show much.

PED's did more than help HR's. It helped durability, overall conditioning levels, pain management, focus, eye hand coordination, reflexes etc. He likely did use PED's (I'd wager it is 75% or better). I KNOW that I would have used them regardless of whether I was a home run hitter or not. The cost of using them is the risk of public humiliation if you got caught, perhaps a suspension if you got pinched more than once. The cost if you didn't use them is potentially MILLIONS of dollars a year and the added risk that you will lose your starting position to someone else who is also weighing the options. Between those two, I juice every time!

PED's was a part of the game. It was institutionally sanctioned (albeit by claimed ignorance) as evidenced in the Mitchell Investigation. The league (comprised by owners who value profits - it is their job to value profits) and higher scoring games means more viewers, means more seats sold, meaning more tv contracts, meaning more ad dollars, meaning more profits, meaning higher salaries etc etc etc.

Regarding the Mitchell Report: George Mitchell and his team could only get what they could find and NOBODY was talking to them. Yet, they still found 1000's of pages of documents. The players were certainly aware of it, and, did nothing. They were all in on it (players, management, ownership, league officials, union etc). It wouldn't even surprise me to learn that even the TV execs knew, sportswriters knew (or at least suspected) and the key sponsors knew it. It was the MLB's Quiz Show Scandal. Everyone was making piles of money so they all looked the other way.

Let all the players in.
Say Chowdah
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Too low? 85% chance he did?
Farmer1906
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iBrad
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What's your definition of used? Tried them? Used them once or twice to recover from an injury faster? Used them routinely over a career? I think the number that took them at least once would shock most fans. Probably not as high as all the players popping greenies back in the day, but still up there.

And I don't know why it's the hitters that are always targeted in the witch hunts. There were likely just as many pitchers doing them. I think the playing field was more level than most want to believe. It's never been fair to just target the hitters.
Say Chowdah
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iBrad said:

What's your definition of used? Tried them? Used them once or twice to recover from an injury faster? Used them routinely over a career? I think the number that took them at least once would shock most fans. Probably not as high as all the players popping greenies back in the day, but still up there.

And I don't know why it's the hitters that are always targeted in the witch hunts. There were likely just as many pitchers doing them. I think the playing field was more level than most want to believe. It's never been fair to just target the hitters.
Used meaning used. I've not put a lot of time thinking about qualifying it based on volumes, types and expected benefits.

I am in complete agreeance with you that power hitters are targeted as it is the easiest overall statistic to measure. I am sure that players at all levels and all positions found some sort of product to enhance their performance beside testosterone based anabolic steroids.

A simple logic test is what brings me to my suspicions and conclusions. There is no reasonable belief that Biggio (having been in the league for 20+ years) wasn't around it or somehow exposed to it. He was in a baseball locker room. Not a monastery.

The peer pressure of that alone would be significant. Couple it with baseball being his means to build his family's security, it would be easy to understand why he'd try it this once because:

CB: "damn, my shoulder has been frigging killing me for a gd week now and I'm playing for a effing contract. I can't afford to go on the DL again!"

Teammate: "Psst, here, rub this on it. Trust me. It works."

Then he does and realized:

CB: "hey man this stuff is better than Ben-Gay! I mean like WAY better! Where did you get this?"
Teammate: "I got a guy. I'll hook you up. And, if you liked that, try this. Talk about focus and energy! The ball is the size of an orange!"

And so it goes.

I think that you and I are probably pretty close to the same mindset. When millions of dollar are on the line, over a 162 game season, they were probably willing to try just about anything if they thought it would keep them playing. Add it up: the money, the fame, the success, the big houses, fast cars. A drug just too powerful for even the most righteous to ignore indefinitely.

The focus has been on the guys who went from 25/30 hrs a year to 50/60. They also went from 190 to 240 lbs of pure muscle (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire) because it is obvious and easy. But to think it was only those players is naive. The Mitchell Report was filled with infielders and pitchers. Remember Chuck Knoblach? He wasn't on PED's to improve his home run numbers (nor his throw to first base apparently) but he found something in it that allowed him to stay in the sun.
PacifistAg
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Yeah, I don't see how anyone can say that any player from that era is above suspicion. Biggio, Pudge, Griffey, etc. Doesn't matter. We have no way of knowing, because as you pointed out, it wasn't just the guys that added 40lbs of muscle. I imagine most were like Pettite, using them to recover from injury quicker.
Say Chowdah
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Quote:

Yeah, I don't see how anyone can say that any player from that era is above suspicion. Biggio, Pudge, Griffey, etc. Doesn't matter.
Careful with this! aggie1906 will start to post gifs and memes at you!
Farmer1906
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Mr.Ackar07
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With an estimated 20% of the votes in:

Bagwell - 91%
Raines - 90%
Rodriguez - 84%
Hoffman - 75%
Guerrero - 72%
Bonds - 71%
Clemens - 71%
Martinez - 67%
Mussina - 62%
Schilling - 51%

Looking better and better for Bagwell and Raines.

I can't see Rodriguez doing worse than Bagwell did last year on the private ballots, so if we assume Rodriguez was to be on 61.5% on the estimated 120 private ballots for this year (same percent as Bagwell in 2016), Rodriguez would need to maintain around an 82% rate on the estimated 315 public ballots (assuming same amount as last year). That would put him at about 332 total votes or 76% of the estimated 435 votes for 2017.
PacifistAg
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I know the percentages were just posted, but I wanted to post this to add the net gain/loss, plus I've added, to the right, the number of votes they need to flip this year:

Another 9 ballots received

87 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (79 - 91%) +4 (12)
Tim Raines (78 - 90%) +16 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (79 - 84%)
Trevor Hoffman (65 - 75%) +1 (38)
Vladimir Guerrero (63 - 72%)
Barry Bonds (62 - 71%) +8 (134)
Roger Clemens (62 - 71%) +9 (130)
Edgar Martinez (58 - 67%) +12 (137)
Mike Mussina (54 - 62%) +6 (131)

I think it's almost time to drop Edgar and Mussina from the list. They have far too many votes to flip at this point. Hoffman is going to struggle to do so as well.
Farmer1906
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Up to over 100 now. What is funny is that Bagwell has more (one) than Raines, but Raines is in a stronger position. Raines has picked up 17 new voters already and likely only needs three more. Bagwell has only picked up 6 new voters and probably needs another 6. Both had a great shot of getting in. I just found that interesting.
Mr.Ackar07
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Quick look at Bagwell:

He currently sits at 97 of 105 ballots or 92.4%
He needs to be on an estimated 230 of the remaining 330 ballots or 69.7%

Last year on all public ballots, Bagwell was on 235 of 310 ballots or 75.8%

If the remaining upcoming public ballots remains the same for Bagwell as last year (he has not lost a vote yet), then he will be on an estimated 156 of 205 forthcoming public ballots or 76.1% (I had to round up to a whole vote)

Should that hold, he would only need to be on 74 of the remaining 125 non-public ballots or 59.2%; last year he was at 61.5%
bufrilla
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Pudge was good, but better than Berra, Fisk, Cochrane, Carter, or Campanella? Those all hold records for catchers. In same class, I would not rate one over the other.
Mr.Ackar07
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BMX Bandit
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bufrilla said:

Pudge was good, but better than Berra, Fisk, Cochrane, Carter, or Campanella? Those all hold records for catchers. In same class, I would not rate one over the other.


Bench? No

The rest ? Yes

PacifistAg
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Another 29 ballots received

116 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (107 - 92.2%) +8 (12)
Tim Raines (106 - 91.4%) +19 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (97 - 83.6%)
Vladimir Guerrero (88 - 75.9%)
Trevor Hoffman (86 - 74.1%) +5 (38)
Barry Bonds (82 - 70.7%) +13 (134)
Roger Clemens (82 - 70.7%) +14 (130)
Edgar Martinez (77 - 66.4%) +19 (137)

Dropped Mussina from the update. Only keeping Edgar because I think his case is interesting this year given how many voters from last year have now included him on the ballot.


PacifistAg
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bufrilla said:

Pudge was good, but better than Berra, Fisk, Cochrane, Carter, or Campanella? Those all hold records for catchers. In same class, I would not rate one over the other.
Pudge is a top-3 catcher all-time. The top-3 are Bench, Berra, Pudge. The order that they fall in is debatable. IMO, there's a significant gap between those 3 and the rest. Pudge is arguably the greatest defensive catcher to ever play the game.
Farmer1906
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What a strange ballot for Gordon Wittenmyer.
Vlad
Mussina
Edgar
Raines
Schilling

Individually I have no issue with voting for any of the above (not saying I would), but when those 5 are your only votes and you leave off Pudge & Bagwell, the two most deserving "non roiders", then you lose me.
rosco511
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aggie1906 said:

What a strange ballot for Gordon Wittenmyer.
Vlad
Mussina
Edgar
Raines
Schilling

Individually I have no issue with voting for any of the above (not saying I would), but when those 5 are your only votes and you leave off Pudge & Bagwell, the two most deserving "non roiders", then you lose me.
My guess is that he is considering Pudge & Bagwell as roiders and that is why he left them off the ballot.
PacifistAg
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rosco511 said:

aggie1906 said:

What a strange ballot for Gordon Wittenmyer.
Vlad
Mussina
Edgar
Raines
Schilling

Individually I have no issue with voting for any of the above (not saying I would), but when those 5 are your only votes and you leave off Pudge & Bagwell, the two most deserving "non roiders", then you lose me.
My guess is that he is considering Pudge & Bagwell as roiders and that is why he left them off the ballot.
Probably true, but once again that reasoning exposes the absurdity of how voters are handling the PED era. As far as I'm aware, neither Pudge or Bagwell ever failed a test. Neither were in any official report on the subject. Pudge was only implicated in Canseco's book and perhaps by his "God only knows" comment. Bagwell admitted to using andro, but that was not a banned substance at the time.

So, it's all based on suspicion without any evidence. Given that, I'm not sure how he could vote for anyone then, since nobody is above suspicion. Not Vlad. Not Mussina. Not Edgar.
rosco511
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I agree completely, but unfortunately many voters use the "eye" test and will disqualify any voter who the believe looked like a steroid user. This is the case even though there is no way to know who or who was not a steroid user based on physical appearance, as many of the players who have been busted for steroids since testing in the major and minor leagues are not the biggest or most powerful guys.
PacifistAg
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Another 9 ballots

125 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (116 - 92.8%) +8 (12)
Tim Raines (113 - 90.4%) +19 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (106 - 84.8%)
Vladimir Guerrero (95 - 76.0%)
Trevor Hoffman (91 - 72.8%) +6 (38)
Barry Bonds (88 - 70.4%) +14 (134)
Roger Clemens (88 - 70.4%) +15 (130)
Edgar Martinez (84 - 67.2%) +20 (137)

Hoffman seems to be having trouble gaining traction. From what I've seen, the anonymous ballots tend to be more favorable to closers, so perhaps he gets the votes he needs there. Vlad is having a very strong showing, and while he likely won't make it this year, I imagine he'll make it in year 2.
PacifistAg
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Good article on closers
Farmer1906
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RetiredAg said:

Good article on closers
Pretty damning article.

I kind of want closers to go away. I wish managers would use their best arm out of the pen in the toughest situation. That isn't always the 9th inning.
TXAggie2011
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It's not really about closers.

It's more about Trevor Hoffman specifically. It says Hoffman could have, as a closer, been a clear Hall of Famer but the guy just doesn't think he was good enough.
PacifistAg
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No, it's about closers. He focuses on Hoffman, but the overall subject of the post is the closer role as it relates to the HOF.
ORAggieFan
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Good to see Edgar getting up there. Could look good for his final two years. If closers are getting in no reason the best DH shouldn't.
Farmer1906
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He's not wrong. I've waffled back and forth on if they should get in. And once their in then what is the line you draw?

Is it 600 saves like 500 home runs used to be? Maybe a sub 2.50 ERA & 500 saves?

Here is a comparison of some of the top closers (non active).



I think Riveria is in even if you hate closers. He was just so damn good. If you wanted to draw the line there, I could see that. Set the bar sky high and leave it. You know a HOF closer when you see one.

But I don't think that happens. Hoffman is slowly trending up. I think he'll get in eventually. However IMO if you vote in Hoffman then you need to vote in Wagner. Hoffman racked up a ton of saves, but ultimately I think Wagner was better. He had a better ERA, WHIP, Ks, and a similar WAR in fewer years played.

Personally I think I draw the line here. To me Smith (& Franco) are only hall of very good. In fact Franco has been off the ballot for some time now.

We'll have more closers with potential HOF resumes in the next 5-10 years in Rodriguez, Nathan, Papelbon, & Street.
PacifistAg
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aggie1906 said:

I think Riveria is in even if you hate closers. He was just so damn good. If you wanted to draw the line there, I could see that. Set the bar sky high and leave it. You know a HOF closer when you see one.

But I don't think that happens. Hoffman is slowly trending up. I think he'll get in eventually. However IMO if you vote in Hoffman then you need to vote in Wagner. Hoffman racked up a ton of saves, but ultimately I think Wagner was better. He had a better ERA, WHIP, Ks, and a similar WAR in fewer years played.

Personally I think I draw the line here. To me Smith (& Franco) are only hall of very good. In fact Franco has been off the ballot for some time now.

We'll have more closers with potential HOF resumes in the next 5-10 years in Rodriguez, Nathan, Papelbon, & Street.
Agreed. That's why it's been so hard for me to make a judgement on guys like Hoffman and Wagner. I agree that if you vote for one, you should vote for both (although I'd go w/ Wagner before Hoffman if I had to pick one). But I personally wouldn't vote for either. It's just that eye test that you alluded to.

HOF closers are like porn....you know it when you see it.
PacifistAg
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Another 9 ballots:

134 Ballots Received
Jeff Bagwell (125 - 93.3%) +9 (12)
Tim Raines (121 - 90.3%) +19 (20)
Pudge Rodriguez (114 - 85.1%)
Vladimir Guerrero (103 - 76.9%)
Trevor Hoffman (95 - 70.9%) +7 (38)
Barry Bonds (95 - 70.9%) +15 (134)
Roger Clemens (95 - 70.9%) +16 (130)
Edgar Martinez (92 - 68.7%) +23 (137)

Hoffman looking less and less likely. Vlad continuing to have a very strong showing. Will be interesting to see how he fares on the anonymous ballots. Would love a Bagwell/Raines/Pudge/Vlad class.
PacifistAg
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Bored today and decided to look to see if any of the public ballots would have matched mine exactly. It's been an interesting voting process and I'll admit that I've learned a lot more about some guys that I wouldn't have voted for before, but now would. If I were forced to make a 10-man ballot, mine would look like this:

Bagwell
Bonds
Clemens
Vlad
Martinez
Mussina
Raines
Pudge
Sheffield
Walker

There were 5 ballots that had 9/10. They all were missing the same person...Sheffield. Anyone else see a ballot that would match yours?
Mr.Ackar07
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RetiredAg said:

Hoffman looking less and less likely. Vlad continuing to have a very strong showing. Will be interesting to see how he fares on the anonymous ballots. Would love a Bagwell/Raines/Pudge/Vlad class.
A four player induction would go a long way to clearing up the ballot. If those 4 make it, next year's ballot gets a little less crowded.

The 13 hold overs:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

The 3 new comers worth consideration:
Chipper Jones
Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel

The Jorge Posada's of the new ballot:
Johnny Damon
Andruw Jones
Scott Rolen
Johan Santana


The good news going forward is that after the uptick in potential candidates for 2019, the 2020 ballot only has Derek Jeter, and the best player on the 2021 ballot currently is Tim Hudson followed by Mark Buehrle.
 
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