Divining Rod said:

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Not sure this is true. But I'm open to seeing your data. I'm sure it's true for a few, but would be interesting to see someone who's not a blueblood program where this was the case (vs the numbers who made it made times and never got past a 16.)

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AggieCrew44 said:

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Judging a coach purely by how they do in a single elimination tourney remains a fool's errand, yet people still do it

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AggieCrew44 said:

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t's not data. It's basic statistics that the more opportunities you have at something the better odds you will have at advancing

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bobinator said:

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Hot take: I think people using Kennedy's tournament results as a huge positive is worse than people using Buzz's as a big criticism.

We were Northern Iowa making one different decision in the last minute of a game away from getting knocked out by an 11 seed as a 3 seed.

And then both times we made the sweet 16 we got absolutely housed.

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Divining Rod said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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t's not data. It's basic statistics that the more opportunities you have at something the better odds you will have at advancing

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Using that logic, no one should ever fire their coach if they're making tourney appearances fairly often. Ever.

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AggieCrew44 said:

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NyAggie said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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Judging a coach purely by how they do in a single elimination tourney remains a fool's errand, yet people still do it

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See Sean McDermott

Dude was a consistent winner in the regular season with multiple division titles but continually failed in the playoff

Result?

Fired

Eventually you need to do some damage in the postseason or you'll be thought to have hit your ceiling and will get the boot

Marty Schottenheimer was another one who was really good in the regular season but a failure in the playoffs and got the boot because of it


Those are both nfl examples, but the same can be said for college hoops

Why do you think calipari jumped to Arkansas?

Because he was failing in March and knew that one more March failure and he'd be fired

So he reset his clock at Arkansas

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Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

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AggieCrew44 said:

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We make fun of Regional Rob (for good reason), but even that is a good example. One of his worst teams was one that got to Omaha, and his best team while here didn't. He made the postseason so often with average to above average teams that he was eventually gonna breakthrough just by purely having more chances to

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NyAggie said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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NyAggie said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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Judging a coach purely by how they do in a single elimination tourney remains a fool's errand, yet people still do it

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See Sean McDermott

Dude was a consistent winner in the regular season with multiple division titles but continually failed in the playoff

Result?

Fired

Eventually you need to do some damage in the postseason or you'll be thought to have hit your ceiling and will get the boot

Marty Schottenheimer was another one who was really good in the regular season but a failure in the playoffs and got the boot because of it


Those are both nfl examples, but the same can be said for college hoops

Why do you think calipari jumped to Arkansas?

Because he was failing in March and knew that one more March failure and he'd be fired

So he reset his clock at Arkansas

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Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

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I do agree with just get there a d let the chips fall, but I can also see the other dude where frustration starts to set in when you keep getting in but having early exits

There's definitely a breaking point

If you can't at least make a sweet 16 in 4 or 5 tourney appearances it might be time for a change

It does help Immensely to make a sweet 16 when you are getting high seeds instead of 8/9/10 etc..

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Divining Rod said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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We make fun of Regional Rob (for good reason), but even that is a good example. One of his worst teams was one that got to Omaha, and his best team while here didn't. He made the postseason so often with average to above average teams that he was eventually gonna breakthrough just by purely having more chances to

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Great example for those arguing against you. I GUARANTEE that if Texas A&M knew going in that Childress would only make 2 CWS appearances (and no semi-finals) in his 16 years at the helm, he would have NEVER been hired.

And A&M HOF coach Mark Johnson was fired despite 2 CWS appearances in his 21 years. Eventually it comes down to winning the big one, or being close enough to winning it in a reasonable time.

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Quote:

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Well yeah, you might call that a temporal knowledge bias, lol.

Anyone would choose the randomness of whatever could be in Box A if they know Box B doesn't result in a championship.

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Quote:

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Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

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Belton Ag said:

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Quote:

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Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

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I believe some what you are saying, but NCAA tournament wins are ultimately far more important for a school, and for a coach's legacy. Norm Stewart and John Chaney are two of the better college coaches in modern college basketball, but few outside of the Temple and Missouri fan bases or basketball nerds are familiar with them. They were always in the tournament, seldom past the first weekend.

Rick Barnes is a current coach that suffers from the same perception. Most horn fans are fond of Barnes as a person, but mostly remember not being able to get over the hump (the 2002 Final Four notwithstanding).

Would you rather have Norm Stewart's ~700 wins with no Final Fours or Jerry Tarkanian's ~700 wins with 4 Final Fours and a Championship?

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AggieCrew44 said:

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Belton Ag said:

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Quote:

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Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

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I believe some what you are saying, but NCAA tournament wins are ultimately far more important for a school, and for a coach's legacy. Norm Stewart and John Chaney are two of the better college coaches in modern college basketball, but few outside of the Temple and Missouri fan bases or basketball nerds are familiar with them. They were always in the tournament, seldom past the first weekend.

Rick Barnes is a current coach that suffers from the same perception. Most horn fans are fond of Barnes as a person, but mostly remember not being able to get over the hump (the 2002 Final Four notwithstanding).

Would you rather have Norm Stewart's ~700 wins with no Final Fours or Jerry Tarkanian's ~700 wins with 4 Final Fours and a Championship?

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I don't think anyone is denying that tourney performance matters the most

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Divining Rod said:

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Bob, with due respect, I recall that you were actually opposed to moving on from Buzz. I remember arguing that we know what we have in Buzz (a good coach), but that Aggie basketball was deserving of something better and we should take that chance.

I think your main point was who do we KNOW is better and KNOW is available, or something to that effect, while I was "well, we KNOW what we have if we don't make a move, and we should aim higher."

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St Hedwig Aggie said:

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Buzz is an adequate coach who achieved tolerably adequate results A&M with a mind numbing brand of dull basketball. Had he been a coach that was into all things Aggie and excited to be at Aggieland, his departure would have been sad for many. It's amazing that our new coach not only seems to like it at A&M, but thinks he can anttain elite level success. Can he? Maybe…I mean if stinking UH can, there's no reason a behemoth of an AD like A&M can't. It is pretty simple.

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PJYoung said:

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St Hedwig Aggie said:

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Buzz is an adequate coach who achieved tolerably adequate results A&M with a mind numbing brand of dull basketball. Had he been a coach that was into all things Aggie and excited to be at Aggieland, his departure would have been sad for many. It's amazing that our new coach not only seems to like it at A&M, but thinks he can anttain elite level success. Can he? Maybe…I mean if stinking UH can, there's no reason a behemoth of an AD like A&M can't. It is pretty simple.

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The unfortunate part about Bucky is that he is on the express train to Bama whenever Nate Oates leaves assuming he continues to have success here. I'm not sure how we could avoid that other than Nate sticking around long enough for Bucky to put down some serious roots here.

But that's kind of silly to even think about at this point.

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AggieCrew44 said:

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NyAggie said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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NyAggie said:

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AggieCrew44 said:

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Judging a coach purely by how they do in a single elimination tourney remains a fool's errand, yet people still do it

---

See Sean McDermott

Dude was a consistent winner in the regular season with multiple division titles but continually failed in the playoff

Result?

Fired

Eventually you need to do some damage in the postseason or you'll be thought to have hit your ceiling and will get the boot

Marty Schottenheimer was another one who was really good in the regular season but a failure in the playoffs and got the boot because of it


Those are both nfl examples, but the same can be said for college hoops

Why do you think calipari jumped to Arkansas?

Because he was failing in March and knew that one more March failure and he'd be fired

So he reset his clock at Arkansas

---

Football and basketball/march madness are not even remotely the same

It would probably take me 5, 6, maybe 7 runs at the tourney with first round exits before i go "you know what maybe this isn't going to get much better and we should go a different direction".

The best predictor of a deep tourney run is how often you get there. You'll eventually break through.

---

I do agree with just get there a d let the chips fall, but I can also see the other dude where frustration starts to set in when you keep getting in but having early exits

There's definitely a breaking point

If you can't at least make a sweet 16 in 4 or 5 tourney appearances it might be time for a change

It does help Immensely to make a sweet 16 when you are getting high seeds instead of 8/9/10 etc..

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Oh I agree. Say buzz had stayed and had 2 more straight first rounds bounces, I'd be frustrated too and probably wanting to go a different direction at that point because I expect more out of our program than that. I just personally feel like a 3 year sample is still pretty small in a tourney that is kinda flukey at times with matchups and stuff

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bobinator said:

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Fairview20 said:

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He was blessed with a core group of players that bucked the transfer era trend and stuck with the program over the course of multiple seasons (which I give him a lot of credit for). I'm not sure how sustainable that model can be year in and year out now.

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If you're like me and look at Buzz as a pretty-good-but-flawed coach, this is actually probably his greatest strength. For how annoying the Buzz Cult is from the outside, the players do buy into it. I watched their game last night and even though they suck and this is a totally lost season, those dudes are still playing hard.

Now the bad side of it is that he does hold on (and pay too much) to players that aren't good enough to take the next step in winning something of note.

But this is why one of the big complains people seem to have "he was recruiting for Maryland while still our coach" doesn't bother me. If the Maryland job falls through, then those are our players instead of Marylands.

Whether the cult was in College Station or College Park, it still needed players.

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