I just binged all the episodes yesterday. Great show, fantastic so far. Did anyone else catch Mare saying "Let the healing begin" in episode 4 when she goes to therapy. Thats a good will hunting reference right?
And LOL at Mare's moms affair

I stayed up until 5 AM this morning watching the first six episodes thinking I would finish it. I was afraid to search about it online and just assumed wrong. Then I realized there's one left and was initially annoyed before remembering we get one more. Can't wait.

Maybe the best hour of tv I have watched in the last year. Perfectly paced, so deep, the incredible scene with the kid, and the great cliffhanger.
Winslet was amazing.

I also just want to point out that the character writing in this show is phenomenal. I have lived in the Philly area for a decade now and feel like I am watching every single blue collar person I've met up here.

HerschelwoodHardhead said:

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My revised theory:

Billy is the father of the child. Erin is so mad at Dylan that night that she tells him the kid isn't his, and she's going to get the money from the real baby daddy at the park. Threatens Billy to expose everything unless he meets up with her and gives over some money.

Billy goes to meet up with her to calm her down, and Ryan is snooping at night and decides to follow Billy to see what he's up to. Dylan, in a rage, decides to come crash the meetup to see who Erin has been sleeping with. Billy, Erin, and Dylan get in a confrontation, and during it Dylan has a gun to Billy's head. Ryan, panics at seeing his uncle in trouble, comes out of the dark and starts firing wildly at them, accidentally kills Erin.

Dylan runs off into the night. Billy tries to save Erin, and gets her blood all over him. He feels guilty having put Ryan in this position and thinks he's the real reason she's dead. John finds out about all this and knows he has to hide the evidence to save his son from jail. Also, John is really suspicious about his brother cause he knows he might tell the truth and get his son (Ryan) thrown in jail. Dylan and John talk about it at some point and agree that Dylan better keep his mouth shut or else he will get implicated in the crime.

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well 3 minor issues, but I agree that it could be something close to that. The kid shooting the gun wildly is a real possibility. He would be guilt ridden too and they would cover that up. She dies somehow and Billy feels responsible. but my issues are:

1. There has to be some element with the picture Jess had from the reunion thing. If it is just more evidence of Billy and Erin I don't see the police chief urgently wanting to contact Mare because she already thinks it is Billy. It has to implicate someone else. And here John is just covering up after the fact. And nobody else is implicated from the reunion.

2. Ryan following Billy makes little sense. Ryan lives with John and Lori not Billy. You mean he was out late at night on his own and sees Billy.. ok maybe. I mean at this point it seems like the kid got the old retired cops gun somehow so I suppose he could be a late night stalker. I just don't know how far that park is (13+ miles from where Erin was found but not sure it's proximity to town/houses it looked fairly remote) but Erin needed a ride out there from Deacon Mark so it was further than she wanted to ride her bike. So how would Ryan follow Billy who was likely driving some distance.

3. Dylan was shocked when he found out he was not that dad so Erin did not tell him that.



But I like a lot of it just not maybe how they got there. Maybe it's even simpler:

Billy - is the father or otherwise involved with Erin.

John - again could be the father or otherwise involved.

Erin makes contact with John or Billy (not by a call or text cuz they have a record of those but through some app) to meet and the other one goes along with because they both are intent on keeping her quiet - they are together after the bar and Lori is asleep. Erin calls Deacon Mark for a ride.

Ryan - maybe he overheard John or Billy at his house going to meet Erin and simply hid in the bed of John's truck to get out there or something and brought the gun to protect her cuz he feels like she is in danger and he has a secret crush on her.

Dylan - wakes up at some point and has tracking on Erin (from when they were together) sees her heading that way and jumps in his car to follow.

Then whatever happens which could be much as you described.

I believe they said no evidence of recent sex for her.

Only theory I can think of is that Billy/Ryan got cut and bled all over her clothes. So he took them and disposed of them to get rid of the evidence.