Diggity said:

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You would hate "Murder She Wrote"

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12 seasons vs 1

Bird Dog said:

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The picture is of Erin, her newborn baby, and the baby's real father - Kevin.

Kevin later killed himself after being rejected by Erin. Erin was in love with Dylan & tried to pass her baby off as his in a futile attempt to cement a long term relationship with him. Remember Siobhan's memorial video? It had a clip of Kevin signing about the first girl who broke his heart.

or

Dylan saw the photo & thus found out that his girlfriend Erin cheated on him with Kevin, so Dylan killed Kevin in out of jealousy/rage and staged it to look like a suicide.

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hmmm.... interesting......

Well that would make sense for why Dylan is working to cover things up - if he killed Kevin. Especially if Erin knew that he would be concerned about her journals.

But I still doubt he knew he was not the father because he was shocked when he was told that he was not. I suppose that could be a faked reaction but he genuinely seemed to change his behavior toward the kid at that time and now has gone back the other direction again.

Also staging a suicide without leaving some indication is tough - he would have had to lift him upstairs and into an attic which was not his house without being seen.

But I definitely think it could involve Kevin's death in some way and Kevin and Erin makes sense in some ways.

I'd want to know the dates of:
reunion trip
kevin's death
when she gave birth

Was literally yelling at the TV.

ExpressAg11 said:

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Was anyone else stressing out during the bathtub scene? I know this show is dark, but dang.

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yall think the mom is going to deem herself unfit for custody and give up the rights to the kid to Mare?

I do. She knows deep down she's on the verge of relapse any minute.

Bird Dog said:

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The picture is of Erin, her newborn baby, and the baby's real father - Kevin.

Kevin later killed himself after being rejected by Erin. Erin was in love with Dylan & tried to pass her baby off as his in a futile attempt to cement a long term relationship with him. Remember Siobhan's memorial video? It had a clip of Kevin signing about the first girl who broke his heart.

or

Dylan saw the photo & thus found out that his girlfriend Erin cheated on him with Kevin, so Dylan killed Kevin in out of jealousy/rage and staged it to look like a suicide.

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I am nearly certain you're right that Kevin is in the picture. It's almost the only way to bring Kevin's story in to the rest of the plot, and it seems somewhat unlikely that his story is just family background for Mare and Siobhan.

saw this on Thrillist. not sure how they got the dates

Quote:

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Just before getting the call alerting her to Erin's death, Mare has a vision of Kevin, staring her down in his child Drew's bedroom. However, Kevin committed suicide in February 2018; DJ was born in November 2018.

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ExpressAg11 said:

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Was anyone else stressing out during the bathtub scene? I know this show is dark, but dang.

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No, I thought it was predictable that they were going to insert that in there. If the kid had been out of the bath and missing it would've been more believable.

Oh.... ok

gigemJTH12 said:

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saw this on Thrillist. not sure how they got the dates

Quote:

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Just before getting the call alerting her to Erin's death, Mare has a vision of Kevin, staring her down in his child Drew's bedroom. However, Kevin committed suicide in February 2018; DJ was born in November 2018.

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ok i knew Kevin's date and that is accurate (posted it before) did not know the birth date.

but if true we have these dates:


Ross Reunion 5-29-2017 - from the necklace and t-shirts
Kevin suicide Feb 2018
Erin gives birth Nov 2018
Katie disappeared Jan 2019 - stated to be one year ago on the show
Erin was killed Jan 2020 - the timeline of the show starts in Jan 2020
Missy Sager kidnapping - approx Feb 2020 as show timeline started Jan 2020

the "other" girl kidnapped that was gone not long after Katie got to the holding cell was a couple of years before as i recall her saying. So maybe as early as 2017.

ExpressAg11 said:

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Oh.... ok

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Honest question. How did you not see that coming? My gf was like "oh no oh no" when the mom was falling asleep. I told her "the kid is gonna be face down but just playing. They just want to add that in but no way they're actually going to let the kid drown".

Well from the responses on here it sounds like you're the only one who "saw that coming." So good for you I guess.

Eh, I was a little nervous, but I didn't see how that was going to advance that storyline at all, so didn't think they would go there. It would just f with Mare more and that is about it.

Here we go.

working on a new-ish big theory but while looking at some past episodes I noticed an answer to a question someone asked.

YES - Ryan was at the engagement party.

After the first scene when Siobahn walks over with DJ and Helen and we see her band there and we see Frank and his fiancee....

Mare goes to John and Lori's house because she is going with Lori to the BB thing at the HS. Ryan is doing homework which Mare comments on. John comes in, lies about not knowing about the egnagement (Mare calls him "a terrible liar") and John proceeds to say ok we are going to the engagement party and leaves with both kids.We never really see him there but it is implied.

Of course we see both Lori and John later at the bar - so not sure where Ryan is at that point. He could be unsupervised. Lori left though so maybe she went home and John went out. But the timing between her leaving and when we see John at the bar (leaving with Frank and the fiancee) is unclear. There was a cut in there to the fight in the woods.

Also interesting note I found about Guy Pearce.

He was not originally cast to play the role - the guy who was had a conflict and had to bow out - they got Guy as a replacement and were happy to get such a big name. But the previous actor was a no name so it is doubtful it was written as anything other than a love interest for Mare.

The guy he replaced was named Ben Miles and has not been in much - like 8th on the cast of V for Vendetta and small role in The Crown S1-2.

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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Also interesting note I found about Guy Pearce.

He was not originally cast to play the role - the guy who was had a conflict and had to bow out - they got Guy as a replacement and were happy to get such a big name. But the previous actor was a no name so it is doubtful it was written as anything other than a love interest for Mare.

The guy he replaced was named Ben Miles and has not been in much - like 8th on the cast of V for Vendetta.

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heard the same. After Miles backed out, they sent out a casting call for "Just a Guy". Pearce's agent was over the moon that the role had been written exclusively for her client.

They all got a good laugh out of it in the end.

Diggity said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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Also interesting note I found about Guy Pearce.

He was not originally cast to play the role - the guy who was had a conflict and had to bow out - they got Guy as a replacement and were happy to get such a big name. But the previous actor was a no name so it is doubtful it was written as anything other than a love interest for Mare.

The guy he replaced was named Ben Miles and has not been in much - like 8th on the cast of V for Vendetta.

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heard the same. After Miles backed out, they sent out a casting call for "Just a Guy". Pearce's agent was over the moon that the role had been written exclusively for her client.

They all got a good laugh out of it in the end.

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ha!!!!... the role actually was unfilled for over a year until just before filming started.

So what are the leading theories for all the pieces involved?

I don't think Kevin is involved whatsoever.

I think Ryan is definitely involved with the extent ranging from he knew what happened in the cabin to him being the actual killer.

Billy is clearly neither the father nor the killer but is being gaslighted by John.

I see John as the most likely candidate for father, but I don't think he is the killer.

I think Dylan likely confronted Erin as well as maybe the brothers at the park with his gun, but I don't think he is the killer.

I think the ultimate story is that the murder of Erin was unintentional and she likely got hit in the crossfire.

I think everyone is lying out of self preservation for their role in Erin's death.

Having thought about this for a few days, it seems the most likely answer based on the edited conversations between John and Lori and John and Billy is that Ryan killed her, but that could also be John gaslighting again. Also, the trajectory of the bullet makes me think that Ryan probably was there and did at least fire the bullet they found.

Episode 7 is Sunday right?
Am I remembering correctly that HBO would not air a Sunday show on a holiday weekend? I guess that doesn't matter much with streaming. Did I just have an "old man" moment?

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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But I still think it was not Billy that killed her. I'll explain. Still gathering evidence.

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We're all assuming billy loved her. He wouldn't have left her buttass naked. If he did kill her, someone else placed her body like that.

Lots of photo forensic detective work going on. I found a reddit thread where they are deeply digesting this image from a screen grab that is color modified to enhance and see thru the image while the chief is looking at it.




Some people swear that is John on the left with a beard.
Looks darker haired to me and just a sweater - could be Kevin.

Some see maybe Erin on the right, nude or scantily clad lying on a bed looking back from bottom right corner. She was maybe taking a selfie the other person may be asleep. some think she is holding a baby. Others don't see that. Some think there is a third person with Erin between her legs (Erin, John and Billy??).

I think it's Kevin and a nude Erin.


Here is a screen grab when Jess hands it to the chief - it is upside down here to our view as he flips it after he takes it.

Bird Dog said:

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The picture is of Erin, her newborn baby, and the baby's real father - Kevin.

Kevin later killed himself after being rejected by Erin. Erin was in love with Dylan & tried to pass her baby off as his in a futile attempt to cement a long term relationship with him. Remember Siobhan's memorial video? It had a clip of Kevin signing about the first girl who broke his heart.

or

Dylan saw the photo & thus found out that his girlfriend Erin cheated on him with Kevin, so Dylan killed Kevin in out of jealousy/rage and staged it to look like a suicide.

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btw we now know part of this is impossible.

Kevin killed himself Feb 2018
Erin gave birth Nov 2018

Kevin could be the father but cannot possibly be in a picture with the baby. He died before DJ was born.

Funny... but Ryan theories like that make me mention that t the reunion Ryan was like 8. He is 11ish now but the reunion was May 2017 and it is now Feb 2020.

Ryan's demeanor changed after the night Erin was killed. He seemed perfectly fine and adjusted before that. Going off with his dad to the engagement party without any drama, odd glances, or sullen mood. What he saw happened that night.

Just had a rewatch of part of Ep. 1 and now I'm rethinking everything.....

I did not recall that in the morning after the murder, but before Erin's body is shown on the rocks we see a shot of Kenny.... AWAKE and outside his house. He is perhaps just wondering where Erin is but my recollection until I rewatched was that in ep. 2 when they go to tell him about Erin and he wakes up was that he was asleep (maybe even passed out) all night. He wasn't. He said he was home all night but he definitely wasn't asleep the whole time before they arrived.

Hmmmmm. Could be nothing. He does says "is it Erin"? at some point before they tell him anything. So it could just be that he woke up, took a piss, wondered where Erin was and went back to sleep in the chair.

Oh. just wait... I'm about to post my overall theory ... it is like 3 pages long and makes Charlie (from IASIP) look completely sane.


Like my LONG and detailed True Detective theory - I do not expect to be 100% right. Heck I may be <25% right on stuff. But I was about 75% right on TD3 including the way the child died, and most of the stuff I missed on there was no way to know because it was stuff not revealed until the finale mostly on people's mental state or background.

But that theory I relied on simple explanations rather than complex ones, fundamental truths about people, their tendencies and specific things people said. Most stories are simpler and less nefarious than we imagine. but the cover up of years of lies and crimes is what complicates things.

Same here I think there are some fundamental lies that drove this entire thing.

THIS was the TD3 post where I replied to my own theory and highlighted stuff I got right.
LINK

Not bragging. I do spend an inordinate amount of time on these shows. Some people just watch...I can't do that I have to dig. I'd be happy if I get a few things right and I'm in the ballpark.