Ryan cant be the killer. It would be pretty lame because theres no personal connection to him as a viewer.

Ok here we go...... this is absolutely nuts. I apologize for the length but I got really into this. And the more I thought about it and the more I rewatched the more that occurred to me, the more I wrote. I tend to think of things especially on rewatch from a writers perspective - why is that scene there, what purpose does it serve, what is said but also not said, what clues are thrown in.

******** HUGE THEORY EXPLAINED DO NOT READ IF YOU WANT TO AVOID THAT************
I'm not using spoiler tags cuz it is too hard for something this big with pics, etc.


This theory relates to fours specific people I go into some depth on (Kevin, John, Billy, and Ryan) and how their backstory affects their actions, motivations, etc. and then I provide some projection of what happened that night Erin was killed that is admittedly all conjecture and could be flat wrong. The scenario that happens at Brandywine park is such an unknown it is nearly impossible to predict. But I think the analysis of these characters is gonna be close and who was there and why. How it went down is throwing darts at a board.

Admittedly it could be the worst of what everyone thinks of John in particular but also Billy. Maybe even Richard who I don't have really involved. And I've even seen wild theories about Helen hiring Dylan, or Siobahn being the killer, or a revenge killing by Ryan. I started with this first part about Kenny and had something more along the main thoughts of John and Billy but I could not reconcile it with some things. And suddenly this occurred to me (about John) and really it fell together after that. Some pieces are from other theories I read, but none had all of this or even most of it.

Watching the entire series again is very enlightening I think. I saw a lot of things I'll mention which can be taken different ways but in retrospect looking toward this theory lots of stuff lined up. And nothing glaring stood out that would refute it I think. Generally I think simpler explanations tend to be right more often and this is really rather simple or at least less nefarious. But it all boiled down to some backstory secrets and lies to protect those secrets. It needed to align with all things said and not said, knowing glances, and other hints.

There is a summary below if you want the short version with no explanations.

Main predictions/theories are in bold.

KEVIN

I cannot exclude Kevin from being involved in all this - I think it almost has to be more than just a thing to give Mare that grief and despair and issues in the family. But I do think it was just suicide.

Given the almost exact 9 month gap of Kevin's suicide in Feb 2018 and Erin giving birth in November 2018 (could be as little as 8 months from late Feb to early Nov) I have a theory on his backstory with a fair amount of supporting (although indirect) evidence.

Kevin is the father of DJ and Erin was his first love so it is her hat he talks and sings about, etc. but they broke up, she went with Dylan, Kevin killed himself, she later found out she was pregnant but she was with Dylan by then and just let everyone assume he was the father. As she implied to Jess, Dylan was not the father, but she kept who was a secret.

Kevin bought the necklace under the Ross name with a stolen credit card from Billy (as he is known to be a thief for his drug habit among family and close friends like the Ross's) because....

Kevin was at the family reunion - as least he snuck into Erin's cabin room or something. The family then found out he was there and they were not very happy about it. Maybe it was the first time they slept together in May of 2017 hence the pendant he had made for his first love. Kevin snatched a credit card belonging to Billy at this time that is why the order was in Billy's name (you can see the full name, not just Ross, but Billy Ross on the other receipt I posted a pic before).

The Ross's all know this, they were all cagey about who was at the lake reunion and recall the one figure in the photo of Erin (and Billy staring) with a jersey in the background could be Kevin. Maybe they just never intended to tell Mare about the relationship after he killed himself. And I think he was not there long, hence they all will claim to have forgotten about Kevin being there briefly.

Recall Lori is asked who is at the lake reunion she says me and John, Billy, Pat (their father), Kennyand the kids (meaning Ryan and their special needs daughter sorry I forgot her name) and also Erin she confirmed when asked directly but she could not "recall" anyone else. Same thing with Kenny. But look at the figure behind Billy in the picture and consider it is May 2017 so almost 3 years ago in the timeline. That's not Ryan for sure he would be maybe 8 this looks like someone 17-19. It's also not Kenny, Pat, or John. I believe it's Kevin.




So the Ross's knew Erin was with Kevin but they never told Mare. Because Kevin had troubles, Mare had enough to deal with, and something happened up there as John said to Billy when he mentioned that Mare is asking questions and it is only a matter of time "after what went down up there" or something to that effect. What went down there may be as simple as Kevin caught doing drugs, plying Erin with drugs, or stealing or all of the above and there was some confrontation and Kevin left or was forced out. Maybe Erin left with him. Who knows.

Maybe they tried to steer Erin away from Kevin and we know he was with someone else in the interim when he got the other girl pregnant with Drew. But remember Kevin disappeared a month before his suicide and nobody knows who he was with as Siobahn says in her video that she wishes she knew who he was with. We do not know Erin's whereabouts then but I speculate that he was with Erin again against the families wishes so they were in hiding (more on that later). They eventually broke up and then Erin ends up with Dylan, Kevin was heartbroken and killed himself. But she was already pregnant from Kevin.

Frank may know possibly his student Erin told him and he thought it best to say Dylan was the father because he knew his family. But that is what compels him to bring Erin diapers and help her out. Now recall that when Mare asks Frank to take a paternity test he says something like "I don't mind doing it, just like I don't mind talking about our son!" The mention of Kevin struck me as odd on first watch the conversation had nothing to do with Kevin... except maybe it did because Frank knows he's the father.


JOHN

When Billy comes in his father's house and John is moving the mattress in he already is pissed at John clearly he chastises John for "ruining his life" because he could not keep his D*** in his pants but I think that referred not to something with Erin nor this supposed repeat affair with Sandra. I think it is much more of a longterm thing with John as Billy also says he never takes accountability for anything.

That statement really bugged me and more or less because of that and the next one below (re: Rachel) I did a complete reversal like a day ago. I think that was intentionally misdirecting us.

So my theory hinges on one key secret from long ago not that John was having some relationship with Erin and neither was Billy but that John is actually Erin's father, not Kenny. John's behaviors can be explained by being both protective of Erin and trying to keep his big secret from Lori and Kenny about his affair with Rachel. But Billy knows. Billy was enlisted at times to help John in taking care of Erin including when Erin moved in with Billy I believe at John's behest because John could not have her move in with him. Even whatever happened at the reunion could be John being protective of her.

John says something, out of the blue, and very enlightening from this perspective. In the conversation about Erin living with Billy, talking about whether Kenny possibly abused Erin, John said something about Erin being tough like her mother Rachel. Then John said nobody knew she was dying of cancer until she was on hospice care. It was a little weird to be an example of her toughness my thought was it was an example of her keeping secrets. John also follows the suspicion of Kenny with "of course, that's why we took care of her" almost overemphasizing why they watch her but for John it is for other reasons too. Billy gave him weird glances as usual in this part.

Well I think the biggest secret Rachel kept was her affair with John which produced Erin. They both kept the secret to protect themselves and hide it from Kenny and Lori of course. But I believe before Rachel died she told Erin that John was her father and gave her the picture Erin kept in her journal that picture I propose shows Rachel and John and baby Erin and in some way indicates John is her father.

When Jess is looking at the photo from the journal she gives a very confused look, obviously she did not even know. Recall that Jess is the one that reported (to Lori) that Erin indicated DJ was not the father of her baby but Erin did not tell Jess who was. Jess just speculated it was Frank but Jess just misinterpreted Franks actions. So we know Erin definitely kept secrets too even from her friend Jess. And I believe she was keeping the secret that John was her father. Jess had apparently never read her journals she just knew where they were kept. But she read the journals and found the pic and then she knew.

So as possible supporting evidence consider the baby's name: DJ which could be Dylan John named for who she thought was the father (Dylan) and her real father (John). This also may explain the red hair on baby DJ, not from the father, but from the paternal grandfather John.


BILLY

Admittedly we know the least about Billy. But I was really watching him on a second viewing and his behavior stood out in a different way then I interpreted it the first time.
First of all Billy wears a wedding ring. We've never seen any family of his nor mention of them but there was a picture Mare was looking at one time with some other kids. I believe those were Kenny's kids; and his wife and kids tragically died in some accident. Billy looks sullen and morose most of the time. Billy has moved back in with his dad. Billy is really really sad but he is also a protector.

Billy comes to the families aid anytime with the exception of John near the end when he is pissed (I'll touch on that later). There was a telling scene that was seemingly non eventful, where John returned to Kenny's house and Billy was there cleaning up. Billy is gathering bottles, plates, etc. and says Kenny is asleep now and wiped out (this is after the Dylan thing and confessing to police). John tells Billy he can go and Billy says "no I'm fine you got the kinds and Lori, you go." He looks rather haggard though and John asks if he is ok like REAL concern. Billy nods yes but kinda sags into a hug from John. I think that question relates to Billy's long suffering anguish as much as the current situation.

I think Billy is in a lot of pain but also very very protective of the family he has left. And willing to do anything for them That includes Erin. I don't think Billy (purposefully at least) killed or ever molested Erin. I think he is truly protective of her. I think he took her in exactly for the reason he said. We don't know when that was but I speculate it was after the reunion and perhaps even during the time that Kevin was MIA for a month. Billy might have let Erin and Kevin stay together in that month when she got pregnant from Kevin before he killed himself. That would rack Billy with even more guilt (if he knows Kevin is DJs father).


RYAN

Ryan is the hardest to peg here. But he is shown repeatedly for a reason especially his reactions to anything about Erin, the murder, his dad, etc.

I speculate that when Ryan was at the lake reunion he first thought something was up or saw something with John and Erin but he doesn't even understand what, but maybe sees some physical affection he thinks is weird for his dad and Erin. Ryan is a quiet little spy who sees and hears everything. Ryan is the one that has been peeping in the windows of the old couple the Carroll's because he had a crush on their granddaughter who called him a little ferret. The granddaughter reported he was wearing a hoodie which Ryan wears a lot. We don't know the age but I think the granddaughter might be 18-20 or so as she left on her own Mrs. Carroll said, back to Allentown.

There is also a scene at the fair where Mrs. Carroll is staring down a different kid she thinks did it who later graffiti's their shed or fence. That kid looks an awful lot like Ryan. But I don't think it was him that time. That just served to throw Mare off.

But I think Ryan went so far as to sneak in at some point and he took Mr. Carroll's gun case we saw in the previews, as he is a retired cop. And that is the gun that fired the erratic bullets at the park and led to Erin's death.

ERIN'S DEATH

Admittedly highly speculative still but in some way I think Erin, Dylan, Billy, John and Ryan end up at Brandywine park that night. Here is my conjecture but again this could be way off. A literal shot in the dark at what happened given those motivations and what little we do know.

So Erin believes Dylan is the father of DJ and trying to get money for the operation. She is betrayed by him in the woods and reaches out in desperation getting a ride from Deacon Mark to Brandywine Park where she knows Dylan makes late night drug deals. She calls or somehow contacts John who she knows is her real dad and asks him to come meet there to protect her and try to get the money from Dylan. John can't use his own money without raising suspicion from Lori, and Billy doesn't have money. John also can't be seen giving a ride to Erin so he agrees to meet her out there and since he is with Billy and Billy knows everything he comes along too.

Now that night I'm suggesting Ryan maybe saw the video of the fight in the woods posted online by those bullies (Brianna, etc.) and he was concerned for her. He may have then also overheard John and Billy talking about going to Erin and being curious, sneaky and maybe even having a crush on Erin, Ryan sneaks into the bed of John's pickup under a tarp and is therefore also at the park when they arrive.

Maybe John stays in the truck and Billy goes out there to protect Erin seeing her arguing with Dylan. Ryan still doesn't know the truth about John and Erin so he assumes an affair and misinterprets what he sees in some confrontation (maybe Dylan and Billy are fighting, and Erin too) and going to protect Erin he runs in with the gun wildly and Erin grabs the gun as Billy grabs Ryan trying to wrestle it away from him which causes some wild shots that shoots Erin's finger off and grazes her head too ], or she falls, and another lodges in the tree and clips the woodwork we saw.

Dylan flees and gets the F out of there in his car driven by his usual drug dealing buddy. He doesn't know Erin died but he just gets the heck out of there and then wants to pretend he was home all night not knowing that Breanna noticed him gone at 2am.

Erin's blood gets on them as they tend to her. John wants to cover it all up so he convinces Billy to dispose of everything and take her body somewhere else and dispose of all of her clothes too in case there are traces of their blood, fibers, etc. Remember there was no sexual assault. Then he goes home to wash up and clean his clothes of all traces and Pat sees him.

In order to protect Ryan from being implicated they convince him to keep the secret of what happened out there. It was an accident but Ryan thinks he might be in trouble but also still believes something was going on with his dad and Erin and they are not telling him the truth as John is still trying to keep that secret from Lori and Kenny. So when his mom asks if it is the same woman Ryan just agrees to keep from saying what it really is and John goes along with it because it is better than telling the truth about Rachel and Erin.

This then explains Billy's angry statement about John never making accountability and about keeping his D*** in his pants if John had admitted his affair with Rachel basically none of this would have ever happened, he believes. It has been a long time protecting this secret with lies upon lies that led to Ryan's misunderstanding and the death of Erin. Bill blames John but not for her death directly just the situation. And he has been lying for his brother for years because of it.

John did say he would fix it but John may in fact be trying to ultimately frame Billy and kill him (as a framed suicide) still in an effort to keep the whole thing secret. When he was forcing Billy to confess he may have been recording it. Billy may admit he did it (accidentally) but if that recording doesn't indicate that then it wil look intentional. John can use that recording to frame Billy. If everyone believes Billy killed her and killed himself from guilt that "fixes it" for Ryan and keeps John's secret safe. OR it may be Billy being super protective just willing to take the fall for Erin's death as an accidental killing.

I believe Dylan after the fact was just cleaning up his drug trail. He knows he did not kill her but won't turn them in because they will rat out his drug dealing. And he wants the journals gone because Erin may have detailed his drug dealings and who he works with. His control over Jess stems from supplying her with drugs and coercing her to help destroy the journals. And the final sort of curveball twist is of course Dylan was Kevin's drug dealer so he does not want that discovered by Mare.





Summary:
John is Erin's father - his motivation is protecting this secret from Lori and Kenny.
Kevin is DJs father -he and Erin had a secret relationship the pendant is from him.
Billy is a protector he lost his wife and kids and protecting family is his motivation.
Ryan is a sneaky stalker with a crush or two and misinterpreted things with John and Erin.
Ryan killed Erin accidentally in a struggle.
All of the cover up is to protect old secrets about John and Kevin in particular.
Dylan is just a drug dealer.
Deacon Mark just drove her to the park.


OTHER HIDDEN "CLUES"

Other oddities I really noticed on a rewatch. Sometimes the makers of these like to leave little embedded clues that later you are like "how did I not see that?" Both of these are just odd scenes really which also makes me suspicious of their meaning and why they are here.

A. First thing I really found just odd was why is Richard's last name RYAN??? The writers could have given him ANY last name but they chose RYAN. They don't say his name much and it is never emphasized in any way except at the book singing where it is literally focused on behind Mare in one scene in particular. Mare casually looks at his book cover a few times in the series and always casually tosses it aside a bit of a metaphor I think for her being oblivious to what is right in front of her. You see it clearly at the book signing on an easel behind her. The book cover shows a desolate looking scene (perhaps of a murder location from that story?) with the word RYAN in huge letters right over Mare's shoulder. But this entire scene is odd Richard invited her there and then ignored her at first. That's the only reason she is sitting alone and we get this shot. Has to be intentional. And it would be odd behavior he should have at least waved her over. It pays off as an awkward scene in their relationship but I think it was intentional to be misleading about that and get that shot.



B. The second oddity involves another innocuous seeming scene. Mare is driving to the autopsy of Erin and going through some parts of town we don't know from a story perspective. Instead of showing Mare it is showing outside the car for no apparent reason. It can be excused as simple mood setting but it struck me as very odd on rewatch. For almost a 4 second tracking shot we see a row of nearly identical townhouses but what jumped out to me on second viewing was the sign a literal sign that says WATCH CHILDREN - which gets bigger and bigger as the shot continues and then the shot ends as the sign passes Mare by another metaphor for her not noticing. Mare in fact always shoos the children out of the room when she has important stuff to talk about including Ryan. The only time she talked to Ryan was the night of the party before the murder. She pays them no mind most of the time, even getting chastised later by Siobahn for ignoring her own daughters needs, etc. so this goes with the previous as well she is missing signs (and names) literally right in front of her about the children. Note she also perhaps missed warning signs about Kevin and did not know about Kevin and Erin for example.



There may be more.


Ok now tell me I'm crazy it's ok. It is a bit complex (convoluted) and it may be something much more sinister than that. But I think this explains almost all the odd behaviors, odd statements and motivations.

Please don't take this the wrong way.

Goood lord bro...relax