jopatura said:
Beto ran while times were largely good. The people that voted for him were college kids and white women.
However, Talarico is running while times are shaky. Suburban middle class is struggling. Vouchers aren't going well, and will be worse in the Fall when it shows up as a negative line item in public school budgets. Property taxes are still high. White-collar tech jobs are drying up and leaving families without their breadwinner. The only people buying houses on the outskirts of Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin are foreign nationals. What's left of the neighborhood is being turned into data centers while communities are struggling with water access/affordability.
Paxton & Abbott represent all that is going wrong right now for a lot of people who haven't turned out to vote in strong numbers in the past.
Talarico & Hinojosa will see a bump from apathetic voters who want something different. If Cornyn doesn't run, there may not be enough reliable Republican-only rural voters to drag Paxton across the finish line. I don't know any Republican-leaning moderates who are excited about the future right now and if it gets too bad, they will easily vote for Talarico because they don't have party loyalty.
I think Paxton would have an easier go if it wasn't a gubernatorial race as well - Abbott is polarizing now and there will be a fair turnout to vote against him. I bet we see a fair number who vote Hinojosa & Cornyn or Blank & Cornyn, whereas if it's Paxton they will happily pull Hinojosa & Talarico, then R the rest of the ballot.
Vouchers: weren't these always going to be a negative line item in pubic school budgets? You are giving money to people to leave their school and go elsewhere. In theory, the schools with the negative line items are going to be the ****ty schools in already deeply Democrat areas. None of these people were going to vote for Abbott anyway.
Paxton & Abbott: why and now do they represent all that is wrong to voters who haven't been voting anyway? These people aren't relevant in the first place.
Republican-leaning moderates: no such thing. You are talking about Independents who are feckless morons that do not understand policy nor actually care about it. They will vote for whoever's ad they last saw, or whatever particular issue pissed them off the day before they vote.
Abbott: has always been polarizing to Democrats in urban blue counties. He's gotten his ass kicked in those counties by huge numbers in every election he's ever been in. This one will be no different. If actual conservatives (not independents) vote for Talarico over Abbott because they are still pissed about Abbott's Covid response or the whole Indian/Muslim issue in DFW, which is debatable he even has control over that, then they are more moronic than an Independent. If any of these people exist, then they just shouldn't vote. These are the only two issues I've heard from people that piss them off when it comes to Abbott. Other than that, he's the second best governor in the US behind Desantis.
I grant you some of these people may exist because I knew some of these people who did the exact same thing with Trump. Voted Biden and then R down ticket. Their TDS overwhelmed their critical thinking ability. I just don't think ADS is nearly as prominent, but maybe I'm wrong.
