CDUB98 said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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A. G. Pennypacker said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.

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At age 62 and looking at retiring in 2-3 years, I'm not liking it very much.

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At your age, you should be mostly in bonds. I'll never understand this mentatlity.

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Define mostly.

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It depends.

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I've got some safer investments that can probably get me through the first 4-5 years of retirement if need be, so 2-3 years until retirement + 4-5 years before I would need to touch any of the equity investments means I've got 6-8 years from now to recover. If I have to work a couple years longer - I guess that's a possibility.

itsyourboypookie said:

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Yet cattle are approaching new highs

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Profitable days at the auction

MouthBQ98 said:

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If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.

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Yup. There's a needle to thread here. Otherwise, Dems flip Congress during the midterms and the GOP isn't interested in actually cutting spending, so we'll end up right where we were with a Dem president and Dem Congress that will ditch the filibuster.

Correction said:

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This thread would be quite a hoot to read if markets were down 20% just 3 months after the inauguration of President Harris or President Sanders.

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Half of the thread would have liquidated their portfolios 10% ago.

annie88 said:

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Well done, Annie.

From the investment thread on B&I:

Current situation:

1. Stocks are falling like the trade war is escalating

2. The US Dollar is falling like trade deals are near

3. Oil prices are falling like rate cuts are not coming

4. Gold prices are rising like rate cuts are on the way

5. Tech stocks are falling like we…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 21, 2025

JohnClark929 said:

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I didn't vote for Trump but I can say I like some of what he is doing such as borders, taxes, and defense changes. I'm not blinded by my dislike. However most of you who support him can't bring yourselves to see what you don't want to see. It's obvious he doesn't know what he is doing with trade, tariffs, or the Fed.

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He's going long in a short world.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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2040huck said:

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When does the populist change direction?

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Nope. No change.

Stay the course.

The market is NOT the economy. The average American worker could care less.

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Couldn't care less*

And they will. When companies start making decisions based on the market.

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I'd also argue the average American definitely couldn't care less about whatever Trump's overall goal is with this trade war if it tanks their investments, doesn't reduce cost of living/inflation from Biden's disastrous economy and/or causes them to get laid off.

A. G. Pennypacker said:

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CDUB98 said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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CDUB98 said:

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A. G. Pennypacker said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.

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At age 62 and looking at retiring in 2-3 years, I'm not liking it very much.

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At your age, you should be mostly in bonds. I'll never understand this mentatlity.

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Define mostly.

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It depends.

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I've got some safer investments that can probably get me through the first 4-5 years of retirement if need be, so 2-3 years until retirement + 4-5 years before I would need to touch any of the equity investments means I've got 6-8 years from now to recover. If I have to work a couple years longer - I guess that's a possibility.

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Mean time to recovery for an 18% correction is 8 months. You'll be fine. But as CDUB said, you should be rebalancing now. We are probably going to get a 50 basis point reduction in May. Part of your portfolio should be US Treasuries. 20 year yield is 5% right now. The last time we had these yields was 20 years ago.

Stop listening to libs and their idiotic, ignorant scare posts.

CDUB is not a lib.

The DJ is at what was a record high 15 months ago.

CDUB98 said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Whoda thunk flooding world markets with money printed from deficit spending by the worlds largest economy would cause turbulence when someone tried to fix it.

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Tariffs are not going to fix that.

Spending is the problem, and Trump and the Republicans are doing nothing to actually reign this in.

The tariffs are due to Trump being a mercantilist. Nothing more. Trump has been beating this drum since the 80s.

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Unfortunately, it's one of the VERY few options he has and one of the VERY few he can do "alone". Nobody is getting spending cuts through the House and Senate....nobody. That's the issue. Sure, he and the Republicans can and should talk about it more.

MAYBE Trump could us that as negotiating tool with Dem's to make it seem like a win for them..."I'll back off on tariff's if you agree to X% spending cuts"? I don't think the Dem's would even go along with that, so again, a lot of people outside of DC want spending cuts....nobody in DC is going to do it, so what's the move you want them to make?

CDUB98 said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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Whoda thunk flooding world markets with money printed from deficit spending by the worlds largest economy would cause turbulence when someone tried to fix it.

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Tariffs are not going to fix that.

Spending is the problem, and Trump and the Republicans are doing nothing to actually reign this in.

The tariffs are due to Trump being a mercantilist. Nothing more. Trump has been beating this drum since the 80s.

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I understand, but imagine this;
1.You balance the budget through cuts alone. You just jerked 2.5 trillion out of the economy, what happens?
2. You increase taxes by 10% across the board to increase revenue, what happens?

My point being, there is no easy way to fix the problem. Tariffs are not meant to be a long term fix. They are being used as a political weapon to influence trade deals, and the deals are intended to bring some international business into our borders to become domestic business. It's way too early to toss in the towel on tariffs simply because the tax and spend policies are what has gotten us here. I'm 60 years old and looking to retire at 65, so the turbulence is bothersome but I'm not naive to think that fixing these huge problems won't hurt. There's just no magic wand to make this situation easy.

What is your suggestion to get debt down while also balancing the budget? More taxes? If you think pulling 2.5 Trillion out of our economy (budgets cut to balance), you're being naive.

CDUB98 said:

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A. G. Pennypacker said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.

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At age 62 and looking at retiring in 2-3 years, I'm not liking it very much.

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At your age, you should be mostly in bonds. I'll never understand this mentatlity.

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Nah, I would never be more in bonds than stocks. 60/40 at least. Maybe in my last 5 years of life. But that's about it.

Especially this person with still 2/3 years before he even begins. I'd probably be closer to 75/25. Just have 2-3 years of an HYSA / bonds available. Add that to the 2-3 years before he even retires. Having the flexibility to scale back below 4% is the biggest key.

If so, even in the worst decade, he'd still be fine and end up ahead after 15 years.

GOLD is up!

Funky Winkerbean said:

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What is your suggestion to get debt down while also balancing the budget? More taxes? If you think pulling 2.5 Trillion out of our economy (budgets cut to balance), you're being naive.

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Is reducing the debt even why he's doing this? He's never cared about the deficit so not sure why he would now.

But even if it is, he's taking a hammer to a problem that needs a scalpel because he doesn't know any other way. The correct way to do it imo is by deliberately working with congress (remember he has both houses still) to get done what he can to try and turn the titanic around a little at a time and doing a lot of what he did in his first term by cutting regulations and taxes. DOGE is a drop in the bucket but at least it's focused on eliminating waste. But when you govern by tweet instead of with the coalition you earned with a pro-economy message this is what we end up with.

The bigger risk is that what he's doing will cause a dem landslide in 2026 and 2028 for a short sighted trade war that's only happening because he's been talking about it for 30 years. I still think (hope) he'll cancel the non-China tariffs and figure out a way to dial those back too but we are only just now starting to see the impact of those as it is.

Thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.

🧵

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) April 17, 2025

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Thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don't change.

These small businesses are largely unable to move their manufacturing out of China. They are last in line when they try to go to a new country as those other countries can't even keep up with the demand from mega corporations.

The manufacturers in Vietnam and elsewhere can't be bothered with small batch production jobs typical of a small business's supply chain.

When the brands fail, they will be purchased out of bankruptcy by their Chinese factories who thus far have built everything except a customer facing brand, which is where most of the value capture happens already.

When the brands fail, they will be purchased out of bankruptcy by their Chinese factories who thus far have built everything except a customer facing brand, which is where most of the value capture happens already.

Consumer goods companies typically mark up the goods 3x or more to support their fixed costs (including millions of American employees).

Now the factories will get to vertically integrate and capture the one part of the chain they haven't yet dominated.

In the week since the tariffs hit, ocean freight bookings from China are down 50% across the industry. Flexport bookings from China down more like 35%, but sources at carriers and forwarders indicate 50% is the industry wide stat.

That's around $1T of economic activity wiped out. And these companies tend to run very lean, financing inventory and reinvesting excess cash in more marketing and growth initiatives. If the goods stop, many will die.

And when they die, it may actually be the final victory for the Chinese manufacturer as they scoop up brands that took decades to build through the blood, sweat and tears of some of the most creative and entrepreneurial people in the world. American brand builders are second to none worldwide.

The fact is, America will have to back off these tariffs, it's just a question of when. Even if it's not this administration, a future one will realize they've got to get us out of the recession. and free trade is one of the most proven strategies to do it.

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Who said people are rational? The only thing they see is their 401ks going to the crapper and want to try something different.

Very true. But people only feel the strain and pain they are under in the here and now and they'll be willing at some point to entertain anyone promising to take the pain away, even if it is obviously lies.

This is happens every 2.5 years. It's gonna be just fine.

2025
2022
2020
2018

SMM48 said:

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This is happens every 2.5 years. It's gonna be just fine.

2025
2022
2020
2018

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Looks like every two years until you had to try and squeeze this year into your data table.

Tell us, what exactly happens every two years? What are the dynamics that set it up and what causes the market to recover?

Also, why does history start in 2018? What's relevant about that year?

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Is reducing the debt even why he's doing this? He's never cared about the deficit so not sure why he would now

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He's clearly stated it many, many times. If he approaches the problem as you suggested (scalpel) it would take too long, forces him to use Congress (useless), and opens him up to political attacks. As far as the budget, look at Congress. I suspect he will ramp up pressure on Congress after the mid terms.

Won't somebody PLEASE think of the brands!!!!

SMM48 said:

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This is happens every 2.5 years. It's gonna be just fine.

2025
2022
2020
2018

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Bear markets typically happen every 7 years. It is weird that we have had 3 in the past 5.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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SMM48 said:

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This is happens every 2.5 years. It's gonna be just fine.

2025
2022
2020
2018

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Bear markets typically happen every 7 years. It is weird that we have had 3 in the past 5.

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Are they bear markets or dips.

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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2040huck said:

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When does the populist change direction?

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Nope. No change.

Stay the course.

The market is NOT the economy. The average American worker could care less.

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Couldn't care less*

And they will. When companies start making decisions based on the market.

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I'd also argue the average American definitely couldn't care less about whatever Trump's overall goal is with this trade war if it tanks their investments, doesn't reduce cost of living/inflation from Biden's disastrous economy and/or causes them to get laid off.

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This.

TAMU1990 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.

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Both of those things (cost of living and retirement) would get significantly worse if AOC was elected. She wants to seize retirement funds to redistribute to her base. All socialists want that.

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Problem is…just like electing trump because no one could do worse than Joe….people could say…screw it…how much worse could aoc do? After all, she's going to spin taking our retirement funds to give to the masses as a positive for the country including wealthy libs.