DOW down another thousand [Started 4/21/25]

48,078 Views | 508 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by nortex97
TexAggie5432
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Bobaloo said:

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.


Bordering on bear market right now for the S&P. Nasdaq is in one.
TAMU1990
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MouthBQ98 said:

Very true. But people only feel the strain and pain they are under in the here and now and they'll be willing at some point to entertain anyone promising to take the pain away, even if it is obviously lies.
This woman ran off Amazon from her district. It would have provided thousands of jobs for her constituents. Nope, can't have that. She's not going to win the nomination. She has no substance.
P.H. Dexippus
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Logos Stick said:

A. G. Pennypacker said:

CDUB98 said:

BoydCrowder13 said:

CDUB98 said:

A. G. Pennypacker said:

MouthBQ98 said:

If you're not careful you'll end up with a president Occasio Cortez in '28 if you screw up the cost of living and projected retirement age for too many voters.
At age 62 and looking at retiring in 2-3 years, I'm not liking it very much.
At your age, you should be mostly in bonds. I'll never understand this mentatlity.


Define mostly.
It depends.
I've got some safer investments that can probably get me through the first 4-5 years of retirement if need be, so 2-3 years until retirement + 4-5 years before I would need to touch any of the equity investments means I've got 6-8 years from now to recover. If I have to work a couple years longer - I guess that's a possibility.


Mean time to recovery for an 18% correction is 8 months. You'll be fine. But as CDUB said, you should be rebalancing now. We are probably going to get a 50 basis point reduction in May. Part of your portfolio should be US Treasuries. 20 year yield is 5% right now. The last time we had these yields was 20 years ago.


Rebalancing now means locking in significant losses.
unimboti nkum
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Trump changing his mind by the day makes predictability and planning impossible, both for investors and businesses. If maximum chaos is his strategy, then I guess it's all going great?
Soso nikinombiki maaki dii.
astroaggie27
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If you're doing it correctly, it means just the opposite.
YouBet
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Funky Winkerbean said:

Quote:

Is reducing the debt even why he's doing this? He's never cared about the deficit so not sure why he would now


He's clearly stated it many, many times. If he approaches the problem as you suggested (scalpel) it would take too long, forces him to use Congress (useless), and opens him up to political attacks. As far as the budget, look at Congress. I suspect he will ramp up pressure on Congress after the mid terms.


I disagree unless he's said he will decrease our debt somehow through an end around via tariffs. I do not think he's doing tariffs to decrease our debt. He's doing tariffs because of the perceived trade imbalances and the fact that China has usurped us as the top global trade leader.

Only way we are reducing our debt is to reduce spending which won't happen. Both parties have already said they aren't going to reduce spending in any way that matters.

MouthBQ98
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TAMU1990 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Very true. But people only feel the strain and pain they are under in the here and now and they'll be willing at some point to entertain anyone promising to take the pain away, even if it is obviously lies.
This woman ran off Amazon from her district. It would have provided thousands of jobs for her constituents. Nope, can't have that. She's not going to win the nomination. She has no substance.




She is their current leading polling' candidate after utterly unelectable Harris, and Harris came way too close given how terrible she and Biden were. Complacency causes disasters
cecil77
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newbie11 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

BoydCrowder13 said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

2040huck said:

When does the populist change direction?
Nope. No change.

Stay the course.

The market is NOT the economy. The average American worker could care less.


Couldn't care less*

And they will. When companies start making decisions based on the market.


I'd also argue the average American definitely couldn't care less about whatever Trump's overall goal is with this trade war if it tanks their investments, doesn't reduce cost of living/inflation from Biden's disastrous economy and/or causes them to get laid off.
This.


A investment is not "tanked" until it is sold.
Funky Winkerbean
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It's clear you don't understand the tactics he's using to solve the problems.
lb3
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

BoydCrowder13 said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

2040huck said:

When does the populist change direction?
Nope. No change.

Stay the course.

The market is NOT the economy. The average American worker could care less.


Couldn't care less*

And they will. When companies start making decisions based on the market.


I'd also argue the average American definitely couldn't care less about whatever Trump's overall goal is with this trade war if it tanks their investments, doesn't reduce cost of living/inflation from Biden's disastrous economy and/or causes them to get laid off.
This is why politicians refuse to address our problems.
YouBet
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Funky Winkerbean said:

It's clear you don't understand the tactics he's using to solve the problems.
No, I do. He's not going to cut spending (because he can't) so his only option to do anything is to raise the revenue side of the equation to the point that it can outpace the debt. Good luck with that.

And he's trying to boost that revenue side with tariffs, extension of tax cuts from 2017 along with new tax cuts (the latter of which are stupid because it removes more people from the tax rolls altogether).

DOGE cuts are not even a rounding error and both parties have already said they aren't going to touch 2/3 of the budget that matters.

The CRs being debated do not cut spending in any meaningful way with the Republicans already backtracking from spending cuts and doing what they always do - increase spending now with promise of cuts later. We've seen that movie a hundred times and it never comes to fruition.

This is the plan.
Heineken-Ashi
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Bobaloo said:

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.
Interesting.

So you're telling me the yellow arrows are normal, but see no issue with anything else on this chart?

Heineken-Ashi
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YouBet said:

Funky Winkerbean said:

Quote:

Is reducing the debt even why he's doing this? He's never cared about the deficit so not sure why he would now


He's clearly stated it many, many times. If he approaches the problem as you suggested (scalpel) it would take too long, forces him to use Congress (useless), and opens him up to political attacks. As far as the budget, look at Congress. I suspect he will ramp up pressure on Congress after the mid terms.


I disagree unless he's said he will decrease our debt somehow through an end around via tariffs. I do not think he's doing tariffs to decrease our debt. He's doing tariffs because of the perceived trade imbalances and the fact that China has usurped us as the top global trade leader.

Only way we are reducing our debt is to reduce spending which won't happen. Both parties have already said they aren't going to reduce spending in any way that matters.


Not the only way. There's also massive deflation and / or default.
Logos Stick
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Bobaloo said:

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.
Interesting.

So you're telling me the yellow arrows are normal, but see no issue with anything else on this chart?




Yes, that's normal exponential growth that companies experience when they retain earnings.
MemphisAg1
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Heineken-Ashi said:

YouBet said:

Funky Winkerbean said:

Quote:

.


Only way we are reducing our debt is to reduce spending which won't happen. Both parties have already said they aren't going to reduce spending in any way that matters.


Not the only way. There's also massive inflationdeflation and / or default.
YouBet
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Heineken-Ashi said:

YouBet said:

Funky Winkerbean said:

Quote:

Is reducing the debt even why he's doing this? He's never cared about the deficit so not sure why he would now


He's clearly stated it many, many times. If he approaches the problem as you suggested (scalpel) it would take too long, forces him to use Congress (useless), and opens him up to political attacks. As far as the budget, look at Congress. I suspect he will ramp up pressure on Congress after the mid terms.


I disagree unless he's said he will decrease our debt somehow through an end around via tariffs. I do not think he's doing tariffs to decrease our debt. He's doing tariffs because of the perceived trade imbalances and the fact that China has usurped us as the top global trade leader.

Only way we are reducing our debt is to reduce spending which won't happen. Both parties have already said they aren't going to reduce spending in any way that matters.


Not the only way. There's also massive deflation and / or default.
That's the reality that no one wants to admit. Default is coming.
Heineken-Ashi
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Logos Stick said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Bobaloo said:

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.
Interesting.

So you're telling me the yellow arrows are normal, but see no issue with anything else on this chart?




Yes, that's normal exponential growth that companies experience when they retain earnings.
Lol.

Weird how it aligns perfectly with the growth of the supply of money.



And quite interesting when you compare GDP to PPI.. weird.. we're actually not creating much at all compared to the costs of creating things.

TexAggie5432
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Logos Stick said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Bobaloo said:

We had a very healthy correct in 4th Q 2018. Bear markets in 20 and 22. Now another correction. These are simply part of the markets.
Interesting.

So you're telling me the yellow arrows are normal, but see no issue with anything else on this chart?




Yes, that's normal exponential growth that companies experience when they retain earnings.


Am I living in the twilight zone or was I explaining that very thing to you a week ago?
Heineken-Ashi
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MemphisAg1 said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

YouBet said:

Funky Winkerbean said:

Quote:

.


Only way we are reducing our debt is to reduce spending which won't happen. Both parties have already said they aren't going to reduce spending in any way that matters.


Not the only way. There's also massive inflationdeflation and / or default.

Massive inflation will only exacerbate the issues. Yes, it shrinks the debt in relation to the value of the dollar, but the amount of debt is still there and still requires selling even more treasuries into a market that is proving its increasingly unwilling to buy them without higher rates. That leads to higher and higher, ballooning interest on the debt. Inflating away the debt IS WHAT WE HAVE DONE SINCE 2008. Theres nowhere left to inflate without crushing the economy.
Ghost of Bisbee
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I read the first 2 posts and thought I was on B&I.

Then I saw the all the ****posting and realized I wandered back into F16
J. Walter Weatherman
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Those brands include thousands of small businesses and tens of thousands of employees. Good luck telling them they lost their jobs and companies that they spent years building for…what purpose exactly?
Ozzy Osbourne
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Those brands include thousands of small businesses and tens of thousands of employees. Good luck telling them they lost their jobs and companies that they spent years building for…what purpose exactly?
Stop making piles of garbage at the expense of the American middle class.
J. Walter Weatherman
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Ozzy Osbourne said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Those brands include thousands of small businesses and tens of thousands of employees. Good luck telling them they lost their jobs and companies that they spent years building for…what purpose exactly?
Stop making piles of garbage at the expense of the American middle class.


Strange, I thought conservatives were pro business. Guess they were for big government all along.
Ozzy Osbourne
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It's America first, not the brands, the Chinese worker, or even cheap goods.
J. Walter Weatherman
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Ozzy Osbourne said:

It's America first, not the brands, the Chinese worker, or even cheap goods.


Right. "America first" even if it costs tens of thousands of Americans their jobs, throws gasoline on Biden's inflation and tanks ordinary Americans' retirement accounts, all to try and bring back jobs that no Americans will do anyways. Solid plan. Good luck explaining that in the midterms.
samurai_science
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Ozzy Osbourne said:

It's America first, not the brands, the Chinese worker, or even cheap goods.


Right. "America first" even if it costs tens of thousands of Americans their jobs, throws gasoline on Biden's inflation and tanks ordinary Americans' retirement accounts, all to try and bring back jobs that no Americans will do anyways. Solid plan. Good luck explaining that in the midterms.


None of which has happened
Old McDonald
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Mucho austin said:

Don't care

Burn it all down and start over
we really went from "trump will save the economy" to "trump destroying the economy is actually a good thing" in less than 100 days
Sublette County
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Funky Winkerbean said:

It's clear you don't understand the tactics he's using to solve the problems.


I don't think you can explain these "tactics" you speak of.
techno-ag
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Old McDonald said:

Mucho austin said:

Don't care

Burn it all down and start over
we really went from "trump will save the economy" to "trump destroying the economy is actually a good thing" in less than 100 days

The economy reliant upon government money and imports from communist countries maybe.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Funky Winkerbean
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Sublette County said:

Funky Winkerbean said:

It's clear you don't understand the tactics he's using to solve the problems.


I don't think you can explain these "tactics" you speak of.


I've done it twice in this thread. Try reading it.
Funky Winkerbean
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Quote:

Right. "America first" even if it costs tens of thousands of Americans their jobs, throws gasoline on Biden's inflation


And what would cutting 2.5 Trillion from government to balance our budget do?
Wooahhhh
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No need to pray on it, the weasel & VP Maybelline will make it happen. What a clueless bunch.
Funky Winkerbean
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Ozzy Osbourne said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Those brands include thousands of small businesses and tens of thousands of employees. Good luck telling them they lost their jobs and companies that they spent years building for…what purpose exactly?
Stop making piles of garbage at the expense of the American middle class.


Strange, I thought conservatives were pro business. Guess they were for big government all along.


They? You just exposed yourself after touting DeSantis for over a year. You're a lib just as we suspected.
Funky Winkerbean
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Sorry, my post was intended towards J.Walter..
MouthBQ98
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If Trump and team really have a coherent strategy, they should explain it to public and the voters. It would calm investors and give them guidance on how to react and plan.
 
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