coolerguy12 said:

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7/17 at 2:45 CST is my guess. Have it all riding on that.

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Did you use Machine Learning to figure this out? In that case, it must be true.

aezmvp said:

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infinity ag said:

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When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

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I would expect there to be a 6 to 18 month correction. Trump is attempting to rewrite the post war order. It's going to take a significant amount of time to see the benefits from that. Lots of companies have sunk huge amounts of money into China and allowed it to become the center of production. China has been a bad actor in this for decades. Industrialized IP theft, knock offs, slave labor, and they used huge trade imbalances with the world to boot strap their country but in ways hostile to the US. In additional they're running an Opium War strategy on us.

Do you realize more people died from overdoses in the US from 2020 to 2023 than died in combat in WWII? Once they release the figures for 2024 it will exceed all service member deaths than during the war. China through their long standing support of the cartels and the drug trade in the US will have contributed to more deaths than every war in US history. Respectfully your large expenses are less important than getting the nation's house in order on things like this. And that will include some financial turmoil.

It's not ideal, but long overdue and necessary. China needs to be removed from our supply chain and we need to stop a lot of what they're doing to us.

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Good post, thank you. I think you are right.
I have been anti-China for at least 20 years. Good to see something happening. This is what happens when we rely on greedy CEOs to take the decisions. They will go with whatever is cheap (so they maximize their bonuses). The Govt has to step in to course correct.

infinity ag said:

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When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

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I started investing in 1999. Yes, I am "way up" overall.
At this point of my life, I wanted to transition to using it to generate a monthly income. Going by last year's performance, I was making a good amount every month. Much more than salary. This year has turned it all upside down.
I did learn something though. To take out 1 year's expenses and put it in a money market type account with low risk and low reward. I didn't do that, I will in the future.
I can still take money out and fund whatever I want to do but with lower prices, I don't feel like. It is a mental thing.

It's starting to feel like the market volatility is designed to cause liberal panic selling. I didn't see that as a means of draining the swamp.

infinity ag said:

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aezmvp said:

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infinity ag said:

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When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

I would expect there to be a 6 to 18 month correction. Trump is attempting to rewrite the post war order. It's going to take a significant amount of time to see the benefits from that. Lots of companies have sunk huge amounts of money into China and allowed it to become the center of production. China has been a bad actor in this for decades. Industrialized IP theft, knock offs, slave labor, and they used huge trade imbalances with the world to boot strap their country but in ways hostile to the US. In additional they're running an Opium War strategy on us.

Do you realize more people died from overdoses in the US from 2020 to 2023 than died in combat in WWII? Once they release the figures for 2024 it will exceed all service member deaths than during the war. China through their long standing support of the cartels and the drug trade in the US will have contributed to more deaths than every war in US history. Respectfully your large expenses are less important than getting the nation's house in order on things like this. And that will include some financial turmoil.

It's not ideal, but long overdue and necessary. China needs to be removed from our supply chain and we need to stop a lot of what they're doing to us.

---

Good post, thank you. I think you are right.
I have been anti-China for at least 20 years. Good to see something happening. This is what happens when we rely on greedy CEOs to take the decisions. They will go with whatever is cheap (so they maximize their bonuses). The Govt has to step in to course correct.

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Y'all are barking up the wrong tree wrt China. It's the EU and WEF where the real battle is being waged....

This is a great Podcast that explains in detail how the global financial sausage is being made. Tom explains the complicated in terms that even idiots like me can understand. Think of it as listening in to Econ PhDs discuss the inner workings of the global economy.

China is a bad actor but the EU/WEF folks are freaking evil incarnate.

📣 New Podcast! "Episode #213 - Caitlin Long and the Financial Crisis that Wasn't" on @Spreaker https://t.co/euo7xEEWny

— Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) (@TFL1728) April 18, 2025

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

---

When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

---

I started investing in 1999. Yes, I am "way up" overall.
At this point of my life, I wanted to transition to using it to generate a monthly income. Going by last year's performance, I was making a good amount every month. Much more than salary. This year has turned it all upside down.
I did learn something though. To take out 1 year's expenses and put it in a money market type account with low risk and low reward. I didn't do that, I will in the future.
I can still take money out and fund whatever I want to do but with lower prices, I don't feel like. It is a mental thing.

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20-25% returns are not normal though.

In fact, numerous big money firms have said to expect 6-8% going forward in equities.

coolerguy12 said:

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So you rail on greedy CEOs and then get greedy when it comes to your investments? You admit China is a problem but complain that you aren't buying a car or doing a house update at the peak of the market?

Figure out what you want and commit to it already. Yeah the market sucks right now and portfolios are down. When you rip a band aid off there is temporary pain. If you don't fully commit you have the pain once and then you have it again later.

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"greedy when it comes to investments", what does that even mean??

As I said earlier, to make or not to make the purchases are a mental issue with mysef. I can do it but it will take a bigger chunk out of my portfolio. I know many others who are in the same boat. This will hurt spending and ultimately the economy. But maybe it needs to be done.

Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

---

When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

---

I started investing in 1999. Yes, I am "way up" overall.
At this point of my life, I wanted to transition to using it to generate a monthly income. Going by last year's performance, I was making a good amount every month. Much more than salary. This year has turned it all upside down.
I did learn something though. To take out 1 year's expenses and put it in a money market type account with low risk and low reward. I didn't do that, I will in the future.
I can still take money out and fund whatever I want to do but with lower prices, I don't feel like. It is a mental thing.

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20-25% returns are not normal though.

In fact, numerous big money firms have said to expect 6-8% going forward in equities.

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I don't trust "big money firms". They lie to make a buck.

Down and up in 1000 point chunks. Volatility like that is unusual but the gamblers/day traders must love it.

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

---

When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

---

I started investing in 1999. Yes, I am "way up" overall.
At this point of my life, I wanted to transition to using it to generate a monthly income. Going by last year's performance, I was making a good amount every month. Much more than salary. This year has turned it all upside down.
I did learn something though. To take out 1 year's expenses and put it in a money market type account with low risk and low reward. I didn't do that, I will in the future.
I can still take money out and fund whatever I want to do but with lower prices, I don't feel like. It is a mental thing.

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every investor approaching retirement should have at least TWO YEARS of liquid assets they can tap in the event of market downturns

this is very basic retirement planning.

oh yeah...

according to the leftists: "Idiot Trump is tanking the markets!!"

last two days NASDAQ up 6%

[Stop derailing the thread. Reposting material that we removed is an automatic ban. Staff]

LMCane said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

---

When will the markets reach break even for 2025? Will it happen this year?
I have put many large expenses on hold for this. Home improvement, car etc. I don't want to spend on those until the market comes back.

---

So you are postponing short term expenses because of a market correction that affects investments you will withdraw in retirement? Or did you just start investing in the market at the end of last year at the top of the bubble? Must be. Otherwise, you're still way up and your strategy makes no sense.

---

I started investing in 1999. Yes, I am "way up" overall.
At this point of my life, I wanted to transition to using it to generate a monthly income. Going by last year's performance, I was making a good amount every month. Much more than salary. This year has turned it all upside down.
I did learn something though. To take out 1 year's expenses and put it in a money market type account with low risk and low reward. I didn't do that, I will in the future.
I can still take money out and fund whatever I want to do but with lower prices, I don't feel like. It is a mental thing.

---

every investor approaching retirement should have at least TWO YEARS of liquid assets they can tap in the event of market downturns

this is very basic retirement planning.

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You are right.
I am not close to retirement though I am closer to it than the start of my career.
I am fine and have no danger of anything and have zero debt. However I messed up (got over confident) about this so when things come back, I will start with keeping 1 year in liquid.

harleyds2 said:

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You should have been around black Monday October 1983. Dropped 23 percent in one day. Hey why weren't people acting like this under Biden when the market was doing this, Media hysteria

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the market dropped 23.6% way back in....

2022.

Muy said:

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Mucho austin said:

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Don't care

Burn it all down and start over

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Now try being 58 and say that.

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Just gotta pull yourself up by your bootstraps

LMCane said:

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harleyds2 said:

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You should have been around black Monday October 1983. Dropped 23 percent in one day. Hey why weren't people acting like this under Biden when the market was doing this, Media hysteria

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the market dropped 23.6% way back in....

2022.

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2022 was very bad too. But what caused it? Was it blowback from COVID?

Muy said:

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Mucho austin said:

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Don't care

Burn it all down and start over

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Now try being 58 and say that.

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Exactly. A lot of people here on this board lack empathy and compassion.
They think they will stay 30 all their lives.

infinity ag said:

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LMCane said:

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harleyds2 said:

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You should have been around black Monday October 1983. Dropped 23 percent in one day. Hey why weren't people acting like this under Biden when the market was doing this, Media hysteria

---

the market dropped 23.6% way back in....

2022.

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2022 was very bad too. But what caused it? Was it blowback from COVID?

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Inflation and corresponding interest rate hikes.

It was only a couple years ago!

MouthBQ98 said:

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Down and up in 1000 point chunks. Volatility like that is unusual but the gamblers/day traders must love it.

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I used to follow Tasty Trade and they had specific plans on trading volitility with calls & puts. Maybe I'll look into their strategies.

rgag12 said:

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infinity ag said:

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LMCane said:

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harleyds2 said:

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You should have been around black Monday October 1983. Dropped 23 percent in one day. Hey why weren't people acting like this under Biden when the market was doing this, Media hysteria

---

the market dropped 23.6% way back in....

2022.

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2022 was very bad too. But what caused it? Was it blowback from COVID?

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Inflation and corresponding interest rate hikes.

It was only a couple years ago!

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Yeah, I lost quite a bit in 2022 but it mostly came back. I couldn't remember what the catalyst for that was.

Quote:

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Exactly. A lot of people here on this board lack empathy and compassion.

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I don't lack empathy or compassion. I live in the real world. I do not entertain delusions.

infinity ag said:

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LMCane said:

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harleyds2 said:

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You should have been around black Monday October 1983. Dropped 23 percent in one day. Hey why weren't people acting like this under Biden when the market was doing this, Media hysteria

---

the market dropped 23.6% way back in....

2022.

---

2022 was very bad too. But what caused it? Was it blowback from COVID?

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blowback from Biden.



it would be nice if the mainstream Pravda propagandists explained to the sheeple that market corrections happen every few years.

Someone was taunting me about the big purchase I want to make.

Well, it is a Mercedes SUV for my wife on our milestone anniversary. It will cost about $60k. The reason I am hesitant is I plan to pay for it in cash or pay most of it in downpayment. Like 30k or so. I am not one of those who get quoted a monthly payment that stretch on to infinity. I paid off most of my cars in 12-18 months and this one would have been 2-3 months. I made a mistake of not keeping 1 year's expenses in liquid, that is a learning for the future. Point noted.

I also wanted to do my basement, paint the house and replace carpets. All about another 50k maybe. Total about 100k approx.

I could swing it right now if I wanted to. I just don't want to with a market like this. I need to feel the love. I don't feel it right now.

Gonna wait for the dead cat bounce.

coolerguy12 said:

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So you rail on greedy CEOs and then get greedy when it comes to your investments? You admit China is a problem but complain that you aren't buying a car or doing a house update at the peak of the market?

Figure out what you want and commit to it already. Yeah the market sucks right now and portfolios are down. When you rip a band aid off there is temporary pain. If you don't fully commit you have the pain once and then you have it again later.

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I get the second part of this, but I think Trump is mismanaging the message on this pretty bad. One day he says there is going to be pain, but it'll be fine and we are committed to the tariffs, the next he's talking about pausing or lowering them.

The market is moving on whatever tweet or administration official quote they get each day, and it's not healthy. These companies we are trying to attract back to America will be investing hundreds of millions of dollars to do so, and if I'm running one of them right now, I look at it and can't make a plan for what to do because I don't know what is going to happen months from now. More than that, these tariff decisions being left solely to the president means I don't know if in 3-8 years what the policy is going to be here.

This just all feels like a **** show right now.

Dow up nearly 500, NASDAQ up nearly 500 and 2.5%

the sky is falling!!

EXACTLY how is Trump supposed to get other countries to lower their tariff barriers against the USA?!

would love to hear the answer from all the leftists and Panicans.

tell us EXACTLY what you would do differently

There's zero political way to do this and it sucks.

You have to deal with the hard times. At least these are predictable. Much worse would be never addressing the issue and having it bite us in the butt in the worst time possible.

LMCane said:

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Dow up nearly 500, NASDAQ up nearly 500 and 2.5%

the sky is falling!!

EXACTLY how is Trump supposed to get other countries to lower their tariff barriers against the USA?!

would love to hear the answer from all the leftists and Panicans.

tell us EXACTLY what you would do differently

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I am all for tariffs.

Just implement is smartly and don't self destruct.