WTI Oil at $109/$110 a barrel--Sun Evening

113,138 Views | 967 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by No Spin Ag
BigRobSA
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ErnestEndeavor said:

Seeing a lot of X reports that wholesale gasoline prices are about to jump. I can't confirm that. One of them is from the Gasbuddy Guy saying he's seeing there might be a huge spike in gas prices in the midwest in the next day.

How to lose the midterms in one fell swoop.
Sims
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AG
ErnestEndeavor
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twelve12twelve said:

Just in time for there to another two week extension to the ceasefire.


They jumped on Trump's comments that he was going to keep the blockade going indefinitely.
HDeathstar
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Blockade kills their wells in less than two weeks. They have to do something soon, unless they get more storage.
Sims
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AG
Even with higher prices, demand destruction hasn't showed up....yet.

fullback44
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Sims said:

Even with higher prices, demand destruction hasn't showed up....yet.



i doubt you would see any issues here since we are a net exporter of crude and some refined products. Basically it sells here first (at pricing) before you would export it. now that doesnt mean the prices could continue to rise if this drags out as supply and demand around the world would most likely increase.

We sell some gasoline components, margins are very very nice right now!
Sims
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AG
I just meant to address the fact that higher prices aren't causing people to stop driving/using gas yet.
fullback44
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Sims said:

I just meant to address the fact that higher prices aren't causing people to stop driving/using gas yet.

gocha... read it wrong. Yeah I agree, people driving all over the place like normal!
No Spin Ag
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fullback44 said:

Sims said:

I just meant to address the fact that higher prices aren't causing people to stop driving/using gas yet.

gocha... read it wrong. Yeah I agree, people driving all over the place like normal!


There was a story this morning talking about the latest jump in gas prices and how they'll affect summer vacation trips. That along with the jump in airplane tickets, will be the true test of the higher prices actually causing people to change their spending habits.

There was one oil guy on there talking about how the current prices could stay at this level for the rest of the year, even if the war ended soon.

Anyone know how that could happen?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Sims
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No Spin Ag said:

fullback44 said:

Sims said:

I just meant to address the fact that higher prices aren't causing people to stop driving/using gas yet.

gocha... read it wrong. Yeah I agree, people driving all over the place like normal!


There was a story this morning talking about the latest jump in gas prices and how they'll affect summer vacation trips. That along with the jump in airplane tickets, will be the true test of the higher prices actually causing people to change their spending habits.

There was one oil guy on there talking about how the current prices could stay at this level for the rest of the year, even if the war ended soon.

Anyone know how that could happen?

December contract wti futures in backwardation would tend to say otherwise but anything you say now is only based on everything you know now.

You also have potential further OPEC disintegration that might lower the artificial floor the cartel keeps on oil prices generally.

We (and others) will also have to rebuild SPR.

There's a number of reasons why it could go either way I guess.
ErnestEndeavor
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It also takes a long time to load and transit oil. Some tankers that left the strait as the war was kicking off just got to their endpoint destinations a week or two ago. If the strait was fully open tomorrow it would still take weeks for supply to get to where it's needed and then time to process. Shortages would not be resolved overnight.
docb
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AG
So will we ever see diesel prices in the low 3$ range ever again? I'm thinking it was even sub 3$ before this Iran stuff stared.
fullback44
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No Spin Ag said:

fullback44 said:

Sims said:

I just meant to address the fact that higher prices aren't causing people to stop driving/using gas yet.

gocha... read it wrong. Yeah I agree, people driving all over the place like normal!


There was a story this morning talking about the latest jump in gas prices and how they'll affect summer vacation trips. That along with the jump in airplane tickets, will be the true test of the higher prices actually causing people to change their spending habits.

There was one oil guy on there talking about how the current prices could stay at this level for the rest of the year, even if the war ended soon.

Anyone know how that could happen?

Basically the world is so far behind on receiving their normal allotments of crude oil that it will take a good 4-7 months to get caught up… that would be my guess. Basically Refined products inventories can't just be replaced over night ….it will take some time
fullback44
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docb said:

So will we ever see diesel prices in the low 3$ range ever again? I'm thinking it was even sub 3$ before this Iran stuff stared.

Sure diesel will start coming down once this simmers down.. but like others have said there may be a good 4-7 months lag for it to actually happen. I think it will happen fairly quickly here in the US… other countries without their own oil maybe not so fast
will25u
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Sims
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will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.
No Spin Ag
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Sims said:

will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.


You really think this isn't for votes this time with all signs pointing to Dems having good odds in November?

Besides, when it comes to what a politician does, how doesn't it boil down to votes?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Sims
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No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.


You really think this isn't for votes this time with all signs pointing to Dems having good odds in November?

Besides, when it comes to what a politician does, how doesn't it boil down to votes?

It's for votes in the sense that global price instability would dampen Repubs chances for reelection. Let's just say he has better cover than Biden ever did.

The point is also reinforced by observing that sans Iran conflict, Trump was actively refilling the SPR rather than draining it...for votes.
No Spin Ag
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Sims said:

No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.


You really think this isn't for votes this time with all signs pointing to Dems having good odds in November?

Besides, when it comes to what a politician does, how doesn't it boil down to votes?

It's for votes in the sense that global price instability would dampen Repubs chances for reelection. Let's just say he has better cover than Biden ever did.

The point is also reinforced by observing that sans Iran conflict, Trump was actively refilling the SPR rather than draining it...for votes.


True. Before we attacked Iran he was cleaning up Biden's mess with the SPR.

Congress needs to do something that keeps a president from just being able to say, "okay, I'll open the reserves cause people are paying a little more in gas so it'll help my team in the election." It really should require so much more than that.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Premium
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AG
It's a STRATEGIC reserve, a war with Iran is a STRATEGIC time to use it. Very different than Biden...
No Spin Ag
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Premium said:

It's a STRATEGIC reserve, a war with Iran is a STRATEGIC time to use it. Very different than Biden...


True, but Trump attacked them. We weren't attacked.

And while I 1,000% support it, had he not there'd be no need for the reserve being used.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
flown-the-coop
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No Spin Ag said:

Premium said:

It's a STRATEGIC reserve, a war with Iran is a STRATEGIC time to use it. Very different than Biden...


True, but Trump attacked them. We weren't attacked.

And while I 1,000% support it, had he not there'd be no need for the reserve being used.

Seems more "strategic" to take preemptive action on Iran than it is to be reactive.

I do not think your rationale here holds up much.
TexAgs91
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AG
No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.


You really think this isn't for votes this time with all signs pointing to Dems having good odds in November?

Besides, when it comes to what a politician does, how doesn't it boil down to votes?

It's for votes in the sense that global price instability would dampen Repubs chances for reelection. Let's just say he has better cover than Biden ever did.

The point is also reinforced by observing that sans Iran conflict, Trump was actively refilling the SPR rather than draining it...for votes.


True. Before we attacked Iran he was cleaning up Biden's mess with the SPR.

Congress needs to do something that keeps a president from just being able to say, "okay, I'll open the reserves cause people are paying a little more in gas so it'll help my team in the election." It really should require so much more than that.


Depending on who's in power, lowering the price of oil by using the SPR for votes could be a legitimate use of the SPR if it means keeping marxists out of power. That ties directly into national security.

Conversely, using the SPR to keep marxists in power is a threat to national security.
No, I don't care what CNN or Miss NOW said this time
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tysker
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Premium said:

It's a STRATEGIC reserve, a war with Iran is a STRATEGIC time to use it. Very different than Biden...

Presidential use of emergency powers is always 'strategic' and often manufactured to buy votes
tysker
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TexAgs91 said:

No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

No Spin Ag said:

Sims said:

will25u said:



Well gosh, they couldn't have picked a more convenient time frame to graph.

Biden drew down the SPR by 291M bbls. The SPR has been drawn down by 17M bbls as a result of the Iran conflict so far (this is different than the authorized amount not yet withdrawn). We're still 50M barrels ahead of where Biden ran it down to for VOTES.


You really think this isn't for votes this time with all signs pointing to Dems having good odds in November?

Besides, when it comes to what a politician does, how doesn't it boil down to votes?

It's for votes in the sense that global price instability would dampen Repubs chances for reelection. Let's just say he has better cover than Biden ever did.

The point is also reinforced by observing that sans Iran conflict, Trump was actively refilling the SPR rather than draining it...for votes.


True. Before we attacked Iran he was cleaning up Biden's mess with the SPR.

Congress needs to do something that keeps a president from just being able to say, "okay, I'll open the reserves cause people are paying a little more in gas so it'll help my team in the election." It really should require so much more than that.


Depending on who's in power, lowering the price of oil by using the SPR for votes could be a legitimate use of the SPR if it means keeping marxists out of power. That ties directly into national security.

Conversely, using the SPR to keep marxists in power is a threat to national security.

Which party is the one promoting and engaging in price controls, protectionism, and government ownership of businesses again? Oh that's right its both the Democrats and the Republicans
No Spin Ag
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flown-the-coop said:

No Spin Ag said:

Premium said:

It's a STRATEGIC reserve, a war with Iran is a STRATEGIC time to use it. Very different than Biden...


True, but Trump attacked them. We weren't attacked.

And while I 1,000% support it, had he not there'd be no need for the reserve being used.

Seems more "strategic" to take preemptive action on Iran than it is to be reactive.

I do not think your rationale here holds up much.


Definitely better to attack Iran. Totally agree.

But why use reserves if not for votes?

The two things can be true kind of thing.

Although I could be wrong. It's been a day, so...

ETA: I do have to give Trump credit for not being out there going, "I'm doing this for you to save you money."

That goes a long way with me.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
flown-the-coop
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AG
Sometimes it can simply serve to tame the markets / stabilize which I guess one could still tie to votes.

We remain 6 months from the election. Not sure tapping the SPR in May is buying votes in November. So much potential for change that would negate this that make it seem less likely its just blatant vote buying.
Queso1
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AG
Whatever it takes to obtain whatever objective we are told it is this week, I guess.


No Spin Ag
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flown-the-coop said:

Sometimes it can simply serve to tame the markets / stabilize which I guess one could still tie to votes.

We remain 6 months from the election. Not sure tapping the SPR in May is buying votes in November. So much potential for change that would negate this that make it seem less likely its just blatant vote buying.


Good point. The markets could use all the help they can get.

Good back and forth. Made be think and appreciate "the other side."

To more of these.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
flown-the-coop
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AG
Agree. Cheers!
ErnestEndeavor
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WTI and Brent falling again today on the news Iran sent a reply to US negotiators. The paper market is still trading on the vibes and not on the physical shortages.
Kansas Kid
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flown-the-coop said:

Sometimes it can simply serve to tame the markets / stabilize which I guess one could still tie to votes.

We remain 6 months from the election. Not sure tapping the SPR in May is buying votes in November. So much potential for change that would negate this that make it seem less likely its just blatant vote buying.

A lot of people on here claimed Biden tapped the SPR a year before the midterm to try to buy votes (I concur btw). So why would this time be different?
Sims
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Kansas Kid said:

flown-the-coop said:

Sometimes it can simply serve to tame the markets / stabilize which I guess one could still tie to votes.

We remain 6 months from the election. Not sure tapping the SPR in May is buying votes in November. So much potential for change that would negate this that make it seem less likely its just blatant vote buying.

A lot of people on here claimed Biden tapped the SPR a year before the midterm to try to buy votes (I concur btw). So why would this time be different?

This time is different because of context and intent. Biden did everything he could rhetorically and administratively to slow the increase in production while Trump is doing the opposite. Biden made direct decisions on O&G production whereas Trump's decision centered on Iran and was intersectional with O&G.

Here's what Biden did concurrently with or before tapping the SPR to make oil cheaper...

  • Day-one cancellation of Keystone XL (Jan 2021).
  • Federal lands leasing pause (Jan 2021)
  • ESG / capital discipline pressure
  • Saudi/OPEC alienation. Biden campaigned on making Saudi Arabia a "pariah" and ultimately had to go to Saudi and ask them to pump more...and then OPEC responded by cutting production.
  • Permitting and pipeline obstruction. Mountain Valley Pipeline, various LNG export terminal delays, refusal to support new refinery construction. Long-tail effects but the policy direction was unambiguous.
On the other side, Trump/Wright/Burgum have been moving to support production prior to and even in the face of supply interruption.
  • Venezuela production recapture/redirect
  • Jones Act waver
  • ordered Santa Ynez back online
  • New federal drilling permits
  • no restrictions on oil/gas exports (yet)
Deerdude
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Really need to reverse regulations to entice construction of additional refineries.
Kansas Kid
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Those are all good points as to what Trump is trying to do to increase production and most also increase energy independence but tapping the SPR would be just like Biden's folly. It would be done not to counter a major shortage of oil in the US caused by temporary issues which is what the SPR was intended to cover but rather to try to drop prices to increase votes for an election. We have plenty of oil so this time it is strictly a price issue just like Nov 2021
 
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