docb said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Considering I am still paying over $2 a gallon more for diesel than I was a few months ago I would say we have a long way to go still.

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The signal/noise ratio isn't very good in this analysis. The signal is obviously Iran and there is significant contribution.

It also happens that seasonality impacts prices and we happen to be in the part of the year where diesel prices climb highest/fastest according to EIA data going back to 1994.



Ironically, it looks like the graph has march flipping us off and that's exactly what it feels like at the pump right now.

Just shy of 4 years ago, the soft serve, pants crapping former President had retail gasoline averaging $4.916 because of his cowtowing to a pipsqueak Ukrainian that couldn't figure out how to wear a proper suit.

Now, retail gasoline hovers right under $4.25 and heading down fast. I doubt CNN is going to put that on their chiron.

No Spin Ag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Until it goes back to .99 a gallon when I was in high school, the sky will always be falling for me.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to my morning ritual of yelling at clouds.

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Hey, it was 33 cents a gallon when I was in HS and a lot of my college years in that same range. Sure production and transportation costs have gone up since way back then but not nearly at the same pace as the taxes imposed.

So keep yelling at the clouds until the tax situation is addressed. (Hint: It never will be.)

It was $.79 in 1992, may have gotten to $.69, I think…

aggiehawg said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Until it goes back to .99 a gallon when I was in high school, the sky will always be falling for me.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to my morning ritual of yelling at clouds.

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Hey, it was 33 cents a gallon when I was in HS and a lot of my college years in that same range. Sure production and transportation costs have gone up since way back then but not nearly at the same pace as the taxes imposed.

So keep yelling at the clouds until the tax situation is addressed. (Hint: It never will be.)

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So, you're saying my favorite pastime will still be "needed"? You really are a Grande 'ol Dame.

I'm glad we have industry experts on texags to whom we can ask questions. O&G is not in my background. I've been seeing a lot of different reporting on podcasts. Some of the podcasts say our U.S. domestic crude oil production has vastly increased under Trump. Other podcasts say USA crude oil production has been declining since June 2025 and the total industry count of active drilling rigs here in the U.S. has been decreasing since June 2025, too. Can someone clear that up?

DeschutesAg said:

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I'm glad we have industry experts on texags to whom we can ask questions. O&G is not in my background. I've been seeing a lot of different reporting on podcasts. Some of the podcasts say our U.S. domestic crude oil production has vastly increased under Trump. Other podcasts say USA crude oil production has been declining since June 2025 and the total industry count of active drilling rigs here in the U.S. has been decreasing since June 2025, too. Can someone clear that up?

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If a rig can drill longer laterals quicker than before, you don't need as many rigs to keep up with the same amount of production.

The more important metric is feet drilled per unit of time...who cares how many rigs it takes if that number is going up.

Crude oil production in bbls is increasing but the rate of increase is slowing - but overal crude and related products production is increasing rapidly. Many consumers of crude now account for input switching so whether you produce crude or some other hydrocarbon liquid/gas variant - it can be consumed. From an overall hydrocarbon standpoint, US production has never been higher.

docb said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Considering I am still paying over $2 a gallon more for diesel than I was a few months ago I would say we have a long way to go still.

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That diesel was made with oil from weeks ago. If prices stay down then finished good gas and diesel will fall too. That's how the market works

aggiehawg said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

---

Until it goes back to .99 a gallon when I was in high school, the sky will always be falling for me.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to my morning ritual of yelling at clouds.

---

Hey, it was 33 cents a gallon when I was in HS and a lot of my college years in that same range. Sure production and transportation costs have gone up since way back then but not nearly at the same pace as the taxes imposed.

So keep yelling at the clouds until the tax situation is addressed. (Hint: It never will be.)

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I used to carry a quarter with my gallon milk jug (used for my yard mowing) down to Bubba Henegar's filling station and get change back; which I used to buy a couple of pieces of bubble gum.

FlyRod said:

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Chatter from oil folks I'm hearing is $156 by June. That's the summer floor (projected) not ceiling. Well this thread can and should stay alive just to check the numbers.

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Lmao. Dead ass wrong.

Last night I was assured that we are in a global energy crisis from which the world will never recover. https://t.co/9T8h2iirqn

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) April 17, 2026

Well that was fun. Hope everybody who gets royalty checks from minerals has a nice summer.

Actually, the royalties from this months increases will show up mid summer.

Deerdude said:

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Actually, the royalties from this months increases will show up mid summer.

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Yup. That's why I said have a nice summer. They typically are paid two months later.

Dems go back to REEEEing about the Epstein files in 3....2....1....

No Spin Ag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Until it goes back to .99 a gallon when I was in high school, the sky will always be falling for me.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to my morning ritual of yelling at clouds.

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You must be really young. Gasoline was $0.25 when I was in HS.

normalhorn said:

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Just shy of 4 years ago, the soft serve, pants crapping former President had retail gasoline averaging $4.916 because of his cowtowing to a pipsqueak Ukrainian that couldn't figure out how to wear a proper suit.

Now, retail gasoline hovers right under $4.25 and heading down fast. I doubt CNN is going to put that on their chiron.

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Just like the price of eggs right after Trump's election. Three months later, crickets.

Let's give it some time and see what happens with gas/oil--along with China. I can't wait for Trump and Jinping to meet to get the press' and the dims/libs reaction.

Iran, or at least elements of the IRGC, fired upon some commercial vessels yesterday and have announced the strait closed again. This includes an Indian flagged vessel carrying a few million barrels of Iraqi oil.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Iran, or at least elements of the IRGC, fired upon some commercial vessels yesterday and have announced the strait closed again. This includes an Indian flagged vessel carrying a few million barrels of Iraqi oil.

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I find it ironic that the regime can round up and execute 40,000 protesters yet are helpless as to some rogue units along the coast.

There's a split between the politicians and some of the irgc hardliners. The politicians understand the economic situation in Iran and the irgc doesn't care.

I imagine there's some dispute about who's going rogue here.

Or maybe they're just screwing with us. Actually opening the strait gives away most of their leverage.

jja79 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Guess the sky isn't falling that much anymore, eh?

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Until it goes back to .99 a gallon when I was in high school, the sky will always be falling for me.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to my morning ritual of yelling at clouds.

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You must be really young. Gasoline was $0.25 when I was in HS.

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Grandpa, is that you?

JK, I keed.

And, thanks for making me feel young. If only my body thought so.

techno-ag said:

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💚☕ pic.twitter.com/SKpuJ5LVlf

— Pepe Deluxe 🐸 (@deluxe_pepe) April 17, 2026

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Love seeing that.

Okay, for us non-OG folks (Mama 'Hawg, et al.), does "New energy resource..." mean oil and gas prices at the pump are going to go even lower than before the war? Or is it just a feel-good marketing thing because social media?

ErnestEndeavor said:

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There's a split between the politicians and some of the irgc hardliners. The politicians understand the economic situation in Iran and the irgc doesn't care.

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So there is another Iranian military the Artesh or something lie that? Are they under political leaders' control?

It's just part of MAGA ongoing belief that somehow or other domestic and OG is going to

minimize the impact of this kinetic action,

US consumers will be only slightly affected

the boom in the patch will more than offset the pain felt everywhere else

The Euros and the Chinese will suffer more and lastly

Everybody has large positions in XOM in their 401 k

Just a variant on drill baby drill

Yes oil production has gone up
yes it's true that oil production has been picking up under Trump but

IMO probably a result of the industry working through the COVID glut

Iirc April of '20 spot price of oil went negative because the globe had too much crude

The COVID glut was worked through by 2022. The US broke its 2019 all-time production record in 2023 and has set new records every year since two full years before Trump took office. Current growth is net-new production driven by Permian productivity gains, not recovery.

Thanks for the details
I did not know that Under Biden US hit new production records and each year production has gone up every year

With Russia, Iran , Iraq , & Venezuela all having troubles exporting it makes sense that domestic O&G is breaking records
That being said JMHO the US can't replace the volume of oil if the SoH is shut down &
When the above mentioned countries do return to their prior export volume there will be glut and a slowdown or bust In The patch
Been going on regularly for 6 decades seems unlikely this time will be different

Would be great if we could construct new refineries, but with cost/return on, apprehension about the future, and permitting I don't ever see that happening.

Does anyone involved in the oil industry here in the US know what the basis on oil is for prompt delivery? I assume it's like grain and there is a difference in the cash sale price and futures market but I can't find a published number.

Obviously jet fuel is a huge problem right now but when the situation at the SoH gets fixed current refining and production capacities are relatively in balance but I could be wrong on that

If we do need refining capacity maybe Rebuilding refining capacity in. Venezuela is part of the solution

Earlier in the thread it was discussed sounds like premiums and discounts are attached to the Futures price but not a truly separate market of course could be wrong about that

Pizza said:

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Would be great if we could construct new refineries, but with cost/return on, apprehension about the future, and permitting I don't ever see that happening.

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A new one is supposedly coming online in Brownsville soon, Deep South Texas.