I think there is subtle nuance as the rest of the thread points to but, overall, I agree. I would just reiterate one more time that Trump was actively refilling SPR before Iran. If it were strictly a focus on convenience of price over all, SPR volume would have been steady to falling rather than climbing.

Deerdude said:

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Really need to reverse regulations to entice construction of additional refineries.

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Not really a regulation problem although those don't help.* It is an economic problem. It is cheaper to expand capacity at existing refineries which the US industry has been doing a lot of over the last 50 years.

*excludes CA which has regulations so bad they are shutting down perfectly good refineries due to bad policy choices.

Kansas Kid said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Sometimes it can simply serve to tame the markets / stabilize which I guess one could still tie to votes.

We remain 6 months from the election. Not sure tapping the SPR in May is buying votes in November. So much potential for change that would negate this that make it seem less likely its just blatant vote buying.

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A lot of people on here claimed Biden tapped the SPR a year before the midterm to try to buy votes (I concur btw). So why would this time be different?

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Doing it because your economic policies led to out of control inflation vs addressing a temporary spike resulting from a military conflict that is on a path for near-term resolution are different things to me. But folks are welcome to criticize both, criticize neither, or pick one or the other.

Was Biden reshaping the geopolitical atmosphere like we have not seen since the end of WWII?

The US is invoking the Defense Production Act to push oil producers to increase output

Most US refineries are set up for heavy crude, while US production is mostly light sweet crude... additional production is likely to be exported, not used domestically

- If the war is ending… pic.twitter.com/RM6CcD0uvt

— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) May 1, 2026

Perhaps addressing the strategic oil reserves that was drained by the previous admin?

They're also triggering the act for critical minerals, shipbuilding, spent nuclear fuel, seabed minerals, fertilizers, coal baseload power generation etc.

They've also removed other items from the DPA's purview - solar panels, heat pumps etc that biden had labeled as critical to national security

While it's a critical development for O&G...it's not isolated.

JPMorgan says global inventories hit Operational Floor by September.
“Operational Floor” = the minimum needed to keep the system alive.
Below it — pipelines lose pressure. Terminals shut. Refineries go offline.
Not a shortage.
A cascade failure. pic.twitter.com/n9MR4VJ3wv

— Qasem Al-Ali (@AlaliQasem) May 1, 2026

Probably made this analysis after they shorted a bunch of pipeline companies.

IB firms with their hand in the till are always simply manipulating, not analyzing, the markets.

Here's a Substack post referencing the full workup. Read and tell me why their analysis is wrong.

https://substack.com/@hfir/note/c-251835114?utm_source=notes-share-action

Analysis by someone named Natasha that is not related to moose and squirrel is hogwash.

Due to Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran being fully offline with degraded exports from UAE and KSA?

This problem isnt global. Its regional.

Yes, it has the potential to be a massive disruptor, but supply wont be an issue in the US unless we start exporting at a massive scale and cut our own throats.

Jet fuel has doubled so I think it is NOT just a "regional" problem

Transitory right? Kind of like inflation...

Sq 17 said:

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Jet fuel has doubled so I think it is NOT just a "regional" problem

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Those tweets weren't about price, but availability when raw inputs/feedstock vanish.

Our refineries wont be shutting down. Nor will our pipelines dry up.

Yes, price will be impacted. Trump has 3 economic levels, ban export of refined products. Ban export of crude. National demand destruction.

Our prices will go up in the short term, but we will not run out of raw/refined products.

Likewise imports will be impacted some heavily but there will be domestic substitutes available.

What refinery is processing American crude in large quantities?

Ag_of_08 said:

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What refinery is processing American crude in large quantities?

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Uh...American refineries?

That tweet was general for global? Or am I missing something?

The rest of the world is pretty screwed.

American refineries do not routinely process American produced crude, the overwhelming majority are not even set up to handle light crude en masse. There have been ChemEs and operators on this board explaining that, in detail.

And it's not adjusting some knobs to convert over either.

Ag_of_08 said:

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American refineries do not routinely process American produced crude, the overwhelming majority are not even set up to handle light crude en masse. There have been ChemEs and operators on this board explaining that, in detail.

And it's not adjusting some knobs to convert over either.

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Im aware many gulf refineries are set to blend US light crude mixed with VZ heavy crude to produce the full line of final product. And that we do need heavy crude to do so. Which is why the cancelation of the Keystone pipeline with CAN heavy tar sand crude was such a big deal.

But currently, is the US at risk for shutting down refineries? This would be new news to me.

Any US company that stood to have their options impacted by a prolonged closure of the SoH and did NOT have a plan to deal with it deserves whatever financial disaster awaits them.

However, me thinks the big players have long had plans (like for 47 years) to deal with prolonged closures of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before my time on the blue planet, but the Suez Canal was once blocked as a result of ME conflict. Not for 60 days but for 8 years.

Life finds a way.

flown-the-coop said:

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Any US company that stood to have their options impacted by a prolonged closure of the SoH and did NOT have a plan to deal with it deserves whatever financial disaster awaits them.

However, me thinks the big players have long had plans (like for 47 years) to deal with prolonged closures of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before my time on the blue planet, but the Suez Canal was once blocked as a result of ME conflict. Not for 60 days but for 8 years.

Life finds a way.

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It does, and if it doesn't, life genuinely doesn't care and keeps moving on regardless.

This rest is long overdue. I just hope that when all is said and done, the Iranians are as free from the current regime as the world will be from Iran's nuclear weapon capability.

No Spin Ag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Any US company that stood to have their options impacted by a prolonged closure of the SoH and did NOT have a plan to deal with it deserves whatever financial disaster awaits them.

However, me thinks the big players have long had plans (like for 47 years) to deal with prolonged closures of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before my time on the blue planet, but the Suez Canal was once blocked as a result of ME conflict. Not for 60 days but for 8 years.

Life finds a way.

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It does, and if it doesn't, life genuinely doesn't care and keeps moving on regardless.

This rest is long overdue. I just hope that when all is said and done, the Iranians are as free from the current regime as the world will be from Iran's nuclear weapon capability.

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At the purest level, this is DJTs hope, objective.

flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Any US company that stood to have their options impacted by a prolonged closure of the SoH and did NOT have a plan to deal with it deserves whatever financial disaster awaits them.

However, me thinks the big players have long had plans (like for 47 years) to deal with prolonged closures of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before my time on the blue planet, but the Suez Canal was once blocked as a result of ME conflict. Not for 60 days but for 8 years.

Life finds a way.

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It does, and if it doesn't, life genuinely doesn't care and keeps moving on regardless.

This rest is long overdue. I just hope that when all is said and done, the Iranians are as free from the current regime as the world will be from Iran's nuclear weapon capability.

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At the purest level, this is DJTs hope, objective.

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Hence why I fully support him on this.

It's no secret I hate needless wars, and Iraq was more needless than I can say, but this one, the people are actually begging and dying for, and he told them we were coming.

I hate that the MIC is getting rich AF off of it, but it's worth it, to me, as is the increasing gas prices.

To getting to a true "Mission Accomplished."

Get rich off the MIC yourself.

Anytime foreign activity heats up then put some cheddar on the missile makers. Just because you may not politically support something doesn't prevent you from profiting from it.

But the reality is that if Trump was focused primarily on the monetary and political fallout of this action he would not have taken this action.

flown-the-coop said:

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... put some cheddar on the missile makers...

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Great, now I want nachos.

Well played.

Ts&Ps for your rectal seal.

Or Trump just made a miscalculation based on Bibi's assurances
If the plan Had gone by the numbers

The Mullah regime collapses

The new regime which is not under international sanctions pumps new oil into the global market

Creating lower cost energy and an economic tailwind

No way Trump thought the straits would be closed , diesel & jet fuel would be at record highs and 60 days in we are no closer to winning then we were on day 14

Sq 17 said:

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No way Trump thought the straits would be closed....

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Are you trying to limit The Trump!?!?!?



R333eeEEEeee333!!!!!1

Sq 17 said:

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Or Trump just made a miscalculation based on Bibi's assurances
If the plan Had gone by the numbers

The Mullah regime collapses

The new regime which is not under international sanctions pumps new oil into the global market

Creating lower cost energy and an economic tailwind

No way Trump thought the straits would be closed , diesel & jet fuel would be at record highs and 60 days in we are no closer to winning then we were on day 14

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This is so laughably incorrect. Put the ActBlue sauce down for the morning.

A valid criticism would be "Trump was advised that SoH was likely to be closed; Trump asked what the consequences would be and when it came back the primary impacts would be felt by Europe, China and Russia, Trump said okay, seems reasonable and if / when it happens those guys will come to the table to help reopen it" - and Trump appears to have not anticipated that the Europeans would be such dickless pansies and would rather be beholden to terrorists than to stand with Trump.

But it's just plain ignorant to conclude that Trump did not anticipate the SoH being closed. That tripe just needs to bounce on to TDS neverland.

The idea that Trump cannot have made a mistake, that this action is not progressing as planned, and that there is no master plan also needs to go in to the the Trump obsessession pile of junk.

If nothing else, he's handing the democrats the best card they could possibly get for the midterms. Combine that with the absolutely suicidal plans the fed has....

Ag_of_08 said:

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The idea that Trump cannot have made a mistake, that this action is not progressing as planned, and that there is no master plan also needs to go in to the the Trump obsessession pile of junk.

If nothing else, he's handing the democrats the best card they could possibly get for the midterms. Combine that with the absolutely suicidal plans the fed has....

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So me mentioning that he surely could be criticized for assuming the Europeans would NOT be giant vaginas is not enough? One must have to make some wild, non plausible assumption that Trump was either not advised or myopically ignored the potential that Iran would **** with the SoH (or another supposed miss that they would not attack their neighbors with rockets)?

That's why people arrive at the TDS distinction. You are unable to even consider a very rational take on Trump's anticipation regarding the SoH and instead take a few poorly planned conclusion jumps to arrive at Trump made a mistake and his arrogance will cost Rs the mid-terms along with an impossibly bad take on "the fed" assuming you are referring to jettisoning Jerome Too Late Powell.

Have you not listened tonthe new fed directors plans? Plummeting interest rates. Forcing banks to buy treasuries and all the rest of his absolute insanity.

Powell sucked, but the stupidity of "the plan" is approaching keynesian idiocy.


But, Trump is always right, and the govt knows best... its just transitory and his plan involved doubling energy costs just before the mid term

flown-the-coop said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Or Trump just made a miscalculation based on Bibi's assurances
If the plan Had gone by the numbers

The Mullah regime collapses

The new regime which is not under international sanctions pumps new oil into the global market

Creating lower cost energy and an economic tailwind

No way Trump thought the straits would be closed , diesel & jet fuel would be at record highs and 60 days in we are no closer to winning then we were on day 14

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This is so laughably incorrect. Put the ActBlue sauce down for the morning.

A valid criticism would be "Trump was advised that SoH was likely to be closed; Trump asked what the consequences would be and when it came back the primary impacts would be felt by Europe, China and Russia, Trump said okay, seems reasonable and if / when it happens those guys will come to the table to help reopen it" - and Trump appears to have not anticipated that the Europeans would be such dickless pansies and would rather be beholden to terrorists than to stand with Trump.

But it's just plain ignorant to conclude that Trump did not anticipate the SoH being closed. That tripe just needs to bounce on to TDS neverland.

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So Trump didn't expect the EU members to do exactly what he and Vance have been criticizing them for over the last several years?

I think he had no way of knowing which would restrict him but expected some to. I also will use this gained information to make other decisions, or more likely let them make the decisions for him.

Trump looks worse every day on Iran. Clueless