EV sales peaked. Long live EV sales

20,968 Views | 396 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by GeorgiAg
nu awlins ag
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AG
Ogre09 said:

nu awlins ag said:

Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

techno-ag said:

jt2hunt said:

Tesla q1 this year is 6% higher than last year!
You can get a used one cheap!


Did you incorporate battery replacement cost?


Why would he need to replace the battery?


So they last for ever? Never need replacement?


Do ICE engines and transmissions last forever?


Actually I have 2 vehicles with 225,000+ miles. No engine replacement or transmission replacement. Both still run great. Maintenance is key.
Teslag
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nu awlins ag said:

Ogre09 said:

nu awlins ag said:

Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

techno-ag said:

jt2hunt said:

Tesla q1 this year is 6% higher than last year!

You can get a used one cheap!


Did you incorporate battery replacement cost?


Why would he need to replace the battery?


So they last for ever? Never need replacement?


Do ICE engines and transmissions last forever?


Actually I have 2 vehicles with 225,000+ miles. No engine replacement or transmission replacement. Both still run great. Maintenance is key.


So basically the same design life as an EV battery...
nu awlins ag
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Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

Ogre09 said:

nu awlins ag said:

Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

techno-ag said:

jt2hunt said:

Tesla q1 this year is 6% higher than last year!

You can get a used one cheap!


Did you incorporate battery replacement cost?


Why would he need to replace the battery?


So they last for ever? Never need replacement?


Do ICE engines and transmissions last forever?


Actually I have 2 vehicles with 225,000+ miles. No engine replacement or transmission replacement. Both still run great. Maintenance is key.


So basically the same design life as an EV battery...


Except replacement cost is cheaper if needed.
nai06
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I think the biggest reason EV sales aren't taking off in the US is that most EVs in the US kinda suck.

This Zeekr 8X is miles ahead of what's available for EV/Hybrids in the U.S.


The Geely M9 ($38K)


Cherry iCar {$20K)
No Spin Ag
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nai06 said:

I think the biggest reason EV sales aren't taking off in the US is that most EVs in the US kinda suck.

This Zeekr 8X is miles ahead of what's available for EV/Hybrids in the U.S.


The Geely M9 ($38K)


Cherry iCar {$20K)

There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Teslag
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nu awlins ag said:

Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

Ogre09 said:

nu awlins ag said:

Teslag said:

nu awlins ag said:

techno-ag said:

jt2hunt said:

Tesla q1 this year is 6% higher than last year!

You can get a used one cheap!


Did you incorporate battery replacement cost?


Why would he need to replace the battery?


So they last for ever? Never need replacement?


Do ICE engines and transmissions last forever?


Actually I have 2 vehicles with 225,000+ miles. No engine replacement or transmission replacement. Both still run great. Maintenance is key.


So basically the same design life as an EV battery...


Except replacement cost is cheaper if needed.


Is it? Counting all maintenance and ancillary lifetime repairs on ICE too?
hph6203
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Not if you're assessing expected costs on a new car. Lithium battery prices have fallen by 90% since 2012, 14 years before today. They're expected to half again by 2030. Demand for batteries is going to continue to grow throughout 2030 due to residential/grid energy storage solutions and robot production. It would take until 2040, 14 years from today, for the average driver to hit 225,000 miles in a car purchased today. Battery prices will likely be 40% of today's prices or less by then and not impossible that the labor will be automated by then as well, because the actual process is completed entirely from under the car with lots of access.
nai06
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I would probably buy any of those vehicles.

In truth it's not an entirely fair comparison. Chinese auto makers have been in the EV game for a lot longer and as a country they have been more invested in developing the infrastructure to support them.

Allowing Chinese EVs into the market would probably destroy us automakers.


EDIT: the truly high end stuff is just wild. If you like cars in general, Forrest Jones is a great follow and he covers just about everything you can imagine
hph6203
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Not really. Tesla had already launched the Model S and announced their Giga Nevada factory before China began their heavy investment into EVs. The BEV market share in China was still only 2% when Tesla began manufacturing in China. They put >$1 trillion in subsidies into battery manufacturing and auto manufacturing in the last decade. Their domestic market didn't explode until their fast follower models of the Model 3 and Y hit the market and they've been on a rocket ship ever since.

There was plenty of opportunity for domestic manufacturers to do what China did. Tear down a Model 3 and Y and see how Tesla was manufacturing their cars, but the industry was too focused on panel gaps and ignoring drivetrain and battery construction. Now China leads in battery technology that was originated in universities in the U.S.

China is really only about 7 years into their viable EV products. The Ford Mach-E has been on the market for as long. Chevy Bolt was before that. The reason China has been aggressive as they have is because their domestic ICE market was dominated by foreign brands in partnership with domestic companies and they could aggressively create new companies to compete with the foreigners. They learned EV tech from Tesla and manufacturing techniques from Ford, GM, VW.
No Spin Ag
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nai06 said:

I would probably buy any of those vehicles.

In truth it's not an entirely fair comparison. Chinese auto makers have been in the EV game for a lot longer and as a country they have been more invested in developing the infrastructure to support them.

Allowing Chinese EVs into the market would probably destroy us automakers.


EDIT: the truly high end stuff is just wild. If you like cars in general, Forrest Jones is a great follow and he covers just about everything you can imagine


True, they're cheaper and have way more options and the quality is on par with everyone else.

It'll be interesting to see what would happen if they were allowed to come into our country.

Put a real test to the "let the market decide" mentality.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Urban Ag
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nai06 said:

I would probably buy any of those vehicles.

In truth it's not an entirely fair comparison. Chinese auto makers have been in the EV game for a lot longer and as a country they have been more invested in developing the infrastructure to support them.

Allowing Chinese EVs into the market would probably destroy us automakers.

China has a much more dire need to embrace EV's than the US ever will. They have to import almost all of their oil. Any prolonged shortage in imports can cripple their economy and defense.

China can also build them much cheaper than we can because, you know, they're a POS commie country and dictate wages and don't really care about workplace conditions. They also don't have to bake in all the safety features mandated in the US.

I'd also just be overall skeptical of what the chicoms put out there. They lie about everything. And the absolute last thing we need is to import their vehicles so they can map every single road in this country.
hph6203
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How many people do you see?

ErnestEndeavor
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The biggest factors preventing more people from buying electrics is range anxiety, charging infrastructure, and the time they take to charge.

EVs will become more popular here when solid state batteries are mature. Sodium or other formulas instead of those requiring cobalt and rare earths. Cheaper to make. Would be able to charge fully in less than 10 minutes with (depending on vehicle weight) 900+ miles of range.
ErnestEndeavor
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The lack of in-car emergency controls is concerning considering Tesla still hasn't completely figured out full self-driving. A lot of the demos are very good and it's getting close, but not being able to intervene in the event it sees something it has not trained on is scary to me.
GAC06
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Sitting in the back seat of an uber, you're not going to intervene either
PlaneCrashGuy
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I suspect they have hit their high water mark for the time being. I agree with a lot of the EV owners on this thread that better tech will arrive in the coming years.
techno-ag
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Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
GeorgiAg
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infinity ag said:

GAC06 said:

techno-ag said:

GAC06 said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

The first solid state batteries are entering production in late 2026, so very soon there won't be much reason to buy a gas engine car. 600+ mile range, 0-80% charge in 8 minutes, and the ultra fast and smooth acceleration that EVs are known for delivering = why would you buy anything but an EV? Well, unless you're a lolpoor I guess.

It's still funny to see people here that are still in denial about the future though.

Oh, we're not in denial. We're just … still waiting. Every year we hear about how great EVs are going to be.




They're pretty great right now. My car does 0-60 in 2.9, has 300 miles of range, great tech, and is very comfortable and problem free. Plus I never have to go to a gas station.


Let's say you are driving from A to B, 300 miles apart. You are low on battery and you find a place to charge. How long does it take? A gas station refill takes 5-7 mins. What about a Tesla?

I've had three family funerals to go to since the start of the year. One in Mississippi, the other near Savannah. I live in West Atlanta suburbs. I took my sister and she was really impressed and wanted to know the numbers so I calculated them.

The trip to MS was 880 miles round trip - hotel in Meridian, MS the night before the funeral. I put in the address into the app. It plans Supercharger stops and tells you exactly what % you will arrive with at each charger and the final location. You can plan on the app the night before or whenever so you know ahead of time. The total cost for the trip in electricity was about $80. Charging at a Supercharger is $0.35 per kWh, whereas at home, mine runs about $0.08. For daily driving, it is a no-brainer. For long trips, it's about equal to a very fuel efficient vehicle.

Started at about 95% charge, drove to Bessermer, AL - 15 minutes $8.34 charge but it said I only needed 6 minutes to continue. My wife and sisters took longer to pee and get drinks than the car did to charge.

Next stop was Meridian, MS, right next to the hotel. We went to Buffalo Wild Wings for dinner and I let it charge for 41 minutes but that was only because we were at dinner and having a few brews. $17.66

The next morning, I drove to McComb, MS for the funeral, visited with everyone, etc. We ate at a mexican place before taking off. 47 minutes $20.12. Again, more because we were talking and eating.

Stop at same place in Meridian, MS 20 minutes, $11.99.

Final stop Leeds, AL at the Buccees. 23 minutes $16.12, but again that was more of us walking around Buccees.


Most stops said I needed 6-15 minutes to charge to go on to the next stop. The ways batteries work, charging from 0-50% is super fast. It gradually slows down after that.


The absolute game changer for long trips is self-driving. I can sit and watch movies or sports on my phone when traffic gets light enough. Frankly, I could do that in traffic, but that's not responsible. My last trip to Savannah and back for a funeral, I watched the Ags beat the hell outta the Gators in baseball. The trip goes by much faster. And I'm much less stressed not having to focus the whole time.

I will always probably own a gas truck, but my daily driver will be eclectic, especially with the self-driving capability. I have a diesel truck now so I can haul and tow stuff. I don't think I will ever drive a gas passenger vehicle again.

bonfarr
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I have seen a lot of used Teslas on the market for what seems like a reasonable price but how much life is expected on original batteries? If someone bought a 5-6 year old EV would they have to spend thousands on replacement of batteries within a year or two?
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be taken at face value.
Over_ed
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NSIAP

Tesla's problem isn't making their cabs. Tesla cabs won't be generally legal until they attain at leas level 4 support, and they really want level 5.

Tesla hope to get to level 4 by EOY, but given they (tesla) frequently don't deliver on time, middle of 2027 is probably as good bet.

BTW - "Level" refers to how autonomous the vehicle is. With no steering wheel, absolutely need 4 or 5.
GeorgiAg
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bonfarr said:

I have seen a lot of used Teslas on the market for what seems like a reasonable price but how much life is expected on original batteries? If someone bought a 5-6 year old EV would they have to spend thousands on replacement of batteries within a year or two?

My buddy just bought a 2015 Tesla Model S and he said the battery is at 80% of what it was new.
Ogre09
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Prediction: my grandkids will never learn to drive themselves and will never own an ICE vehicle.

Timeline: ~30 years til they would be learning to drive
Ag_of_08
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How many miles, and what kind of driving.

Li-po batteries are li-po batteries. There's two things that degraded them, discharge rate and number of cycles. They will fail after enough cycles, and that number shrinks wverytime they go under high draw.

Been messing with the things at the edge of their performance capabilities since 06.... and when that Tesla battery eventually goes, hed be better off cost wise if it dropped a cell and burned than trying to replace it.
Ag_of_08
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Short cycling batteries like that is generally not a good thing. Unless EV Jesus changed the way li-po or Li-ion batteries, the start and stop charging does nothing but contribute to shortening the life span of the battery...
Teslag
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techno-ag said:

Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.


It's funny how when you started these obsessive threads about 4 years ago it was basically me and a few others getting dunked on. Now it's basically reversed and many of those old haters have either bought one or are considering one.

Teslag
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Ag_of_08 said:

How many miles, and what kind of driving.

Li-po batteries are li-po batteries. There's two things that degraded them, discharge rate and number of cycles. They will fail after enough cycles, and that number shrinks wverytime they go under high draw.

Been messing with the things at the edge of their performance capabilities since 06.... and when that Tesla battery eventually goes, hed be better off cost wise if it dropped a cell and burned than trying to replace it.


Tesla doesn't use LiPo. They are LFP or LiFePO4 and far more stable than the LiPo you use in RC.
techno-ag
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Teslag said:

techno-ag said:

Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.


It's funny how when you started these obsessive threads about 4 years ago it was basically me and a few others getting dunked on. Now it's basically reversed and many of those old haters have either bought one or are considering one.



Aw we love you guys. Nobody's dunking on anybody here.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
YouBet
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I'm intrigued by the new Rivian R2 about to come out. It's a smaller version of the R1 and more practical and affordable. I'm putting that on my list for consideration.

I'm just not sure if they are a stable company yet or not. They've had a rocky ride.
hph6203
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Ag_of_08 said:

Short cycling batteries like that is generally not a good thing. Unless EV Jesus changed the way li-po or Li-ion batteries, the start and stop charging does nothing but contribute to shortening the life span of the battery...
You don't know what you're talking about.
Malibu
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Not an EV evangelist. Either me or my wife have a 40ish mile commute to downtown LA every day. Tesla full self driving and plug in at home are a fantastic use case for us. When I go to the Sierras, we take our ICE SUV. 10/10 experience for our personal situation. I am not schlepping consumer goods across the country from Warehouse A to Warehouse B nor towing heavy farm equipment around a large ranch, and I wouldn't use a Tesla if that was my use case
GAC06
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techno-ag said:

Teslag said:

techno-ag said:

Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.


It's funny how when you started these obsessive threads about 4 years ago it was basically me and a few others getting dunked on. Now it's basically reversed and many of those old haters have either bought one or are considering one.



Aw we love you guys. Nobody's dunking on anybody here.


No, you're getting dunked on a lot
techno-ag
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GAC06 said:

techno-ag said:

Teslag said:

techno-ag said:

Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.


It's funny how when you started these obsessive threads about 4 years ago it was basically me and a few others getting dunked on. Now it's basically reversed and many of those old haters have either bought one or are considering one.



Aw we love you guys. Nobody's dunking on anybody here.


No, you're getting dunked on a lot

Ok.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
IIIHorn
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techno-ag said:

GAC06 said:

techno-ag said:

Teslag said:

techno-ag said:

Prepare to be starred by all the EVangelists here.


It's funny how when you started these obsessive threads about 4 years ago it was basically me and a few others getting dunked on. Now it's basically reversed and many of those old haters have either bought one or are considering one.



Aw we love you guys. Nobody's dunking on anybody here.


No, you're getting dunked on a lot

Ok.


Donut put up with this.


( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
94chem
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GAC06 said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

The first solid state batteries are entering production in late 2026, so very soon there won't be much reason to buy a gas engine car. 600+ mile range, 0-80% charge in 8 minutes, and the ultra fast and smooth acceleration that EVs are known for delivering = why would you buy anything but an EV? Well, unless you're a lolpoor I guess.

It's still funny to see people here that are still in denial about the future though.


Especially GenXers, who were born before calculators existed, now do shopping on their phones and quantum mechanics on their laptops, get skinny shots, yet nonetheless force themselves to believe that technology is static because orange man doesn't like windmills.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
IIIHorn
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94chem said:

GAC06 said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

The first solid state batteries are entering production in late 2026, so very soon there won't be much reason to buy a gas engine car. 600+ mile range, 0-80% charge in 8 minutes, and the ultra fast and smooth acceleration that EVs are known for delivering = why would you buy anything but an EV? Well, unless you're a lolpoor I guess.

It's still funny to see people here that are still in denial about the future though.


Especially GenXers, who were born before calculators existed, now do shopping on their phones and quantum mechanics on their laptops, get skinny shots, yet nonetheless force themselves to believe that technology is static because orange man doesn't like windmills.


So, what is the benefit of wind generators?

It's already windy enough as it is.


( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
 
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